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NIU

Northern Illinois 35 at Tulsa 38

TLSA
2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:17 · Tom Foley punt for 38 yds , Keylon Stokes returns for 11 yds to the Tulsa 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 64Pregame prior+8.5Home team on offense+10.7Garbage-time factor+1.8Score differential+4.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:54: Antario Brown run for 8 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK) — NIU win probability +14.3 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q4 14:50: Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 33 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK) — NIU win probability +24.3 pts (now 64%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:36: Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 1 yd for a TD, (Zack Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +28.7 pts (now 73%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:57: Rocky Lombardi run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Richardson KICK) — NIU win probability +38.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:58: Steven Anderson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zack Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +51.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6NIU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 5:17NIU 4th & 6 at TLSA 30, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.3%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    30.0%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:23TLSA 4th & 11 at TLSA 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:43NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00TLSA 4th & 1 at NIU 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    70.2%−0.8
    83% to make
    Punt
    67.6%−3.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:02TLSA 4th & 10 at NIU 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%−0.5
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.0%
    88% to make
    Punt
    67.8%−3.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:26NIU 4th & 7 at NIU 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:17NIU 4th & 7 at NIU 42, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:08TLSA 4th & 4 at NIU 22, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.0%−0.4
    72% to make
    Punt
    59.5%−8.9
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:36TLSA 4th & 1 at NIU 1, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    40.6%−6.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    25.6%−21.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:37NIU 4th & 14 at NIU 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−3.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:38TLSA 4th & 1 at NIU 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    25.3%−9.4
    25% to make
    Punt
    24.5%−10.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:54NIU 4th & 4 at TLSA 48, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    84.3%−1.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NIU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 10:13TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:15TLSA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:17NIU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:49TLSA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:44NIU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:54NIU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:50NIU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:36TLSA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.1%−0.7
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:57NIU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.0%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.4%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:58TLSA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.0%−4.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:4765% → 67%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
64.6%
Steven Anderson run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
64.6%
Davis Brin run for no gain to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+14
64.6%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 14 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
64.6%
Steven Anderson run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+5
64.6%
Steven Anderson run for 5 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
64.6%
Steven Anderson run for 7 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+6
64.6%
Steven Anderson run for 6 yds to the NoIll 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
64.6%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-15
64.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Brin,Davis pass complete deep right to Epps,Isaiah for 13 yards to the NIU20 (Lafayette,Devin) PENALTY Tulsa Pass Interference (Epps,Isaiah) 15 yards from NIU33 to NIU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 25
OPP 48
+10
64.6%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 10 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 38
+14
64.6%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Eric Rogers) to the NoIll 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
64.6%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Malachai JonesSimilar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+14
66.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 14 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2MISSED FG
11 plays · 45 yds · 4:5034% → 33%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
65.9%
Antario Brown run for 5 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+17
65.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 17 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
65.5%
Antario Brown run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+1
65.4%
Harrison Waylee run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+13
65.5%
Harrison Waylee run for 13 yds to the Tulsa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
65.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Fabian McCraySimilar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+4
65.2%
Antario Brown run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+5
65.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 5 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q1 10:07
4TH & 1
OPP 25
-5
65.6%
PENALTY NIU False Start (Cox,Marques) 5 yards from Tulsa25 to Tulsa30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:17
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+48
66.9%
John Richardson 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5467% → 67%
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
67.4%
Steven Anderson run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 11
OWN 29
0
67.3%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q1 5:17
3RD & 11
OWN 29
0
67.0%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Malachai JonesSimilar
Q1 4:23
4TH & 11
OWN 29
+3
66.8%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 57 yds , Kacper Rutkiewicz returns for 3 yds to the NoIll 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:4033% → 32%
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
67.4%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the NoIll 18Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+1
67.5%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the NoIll 17Similar
Q1 4:23
3RD & 10
OWN 17
0
67.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Shemar ThorntonSimilar
Q1 2:43
4TH & 10
OWN 17
+25
68.5%
Tom Foley punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 40 , Keylon Stokes returns for 25 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5FG
10 plays · 30 yds · 4:4169% → 70%
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-6
69.1%
Davis Brin sacked by Izayah Green-May for a loss of 6 yards to the NoIll 46Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 16
OPP 46
+15
68.5%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Illegal Use Of Hands (Jordan Gandy) to the NoIll 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
69.1%
Bill Jackson run for 4 yds to the NoIll 20Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+4
69.1%
Bill Jackson run for 4 yds to the NoIll 16Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+1
69.3%
Steven Anderson run for 1 yd to the NoIll 15Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+9
68.7%
Steven Anderson run for 9 yds to the NoIll 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
69.7%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
69.7%
Keylon Stokes run for no gain to the NoIll 6Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
69.3%
Davis Brin run for 4 yds to the NoIll 10Similar
Q2 13:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
69.8%
Zack Long 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3630% → 29%
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Shemar ThorntonSimilar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
70.2%
Mason Blakemore run for 4 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q2 13:02
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+1
70.4%
Mason Blakemore run for 1 yd to the NoIll 28Similar
Q2 11:26
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+8
71.1%
Tom Foley punt for 51 yds , Keylon Stokes returns for 8 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 3:1171% → 83%
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
70.6%
Steven Anderson run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+13
70.9%
Davis Brin run for 13 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
71.5%
Davis Brin run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+7
71.0%
Steven Anderson run for 7 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q2 11:26
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+23
71.0%
Davis Brin pass complete to Malachai Jones for 8 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, Illegal Use Of Hands (Izayah Green-May) to the NoIll 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
71.8%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Ethan HallSimilar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
71.7%
TULSA Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+25
83.4%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 25 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:5819% → 18%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
81.1%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the NoIll 24Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
81.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 10 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
80.5%
Antario Brown run for 5 yds to the NoIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
80.5%
Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
80.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Miles JoinerSimilar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
80.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to George GumbsSimilar
Q2 5:17
4TH & 7
OWN 42
+11
82.0%
Tom Foley punt for 38 yds , Keylon Stokes returns for 11 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
84.3%
Davis Brin pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 44 yds · 2:5019% → 30%
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
80.7%
Rocky Lombardi run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+8
80.4%
Mason Blakemore run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
80.0%
Mason Blakemore run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+17
80.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Liam Soraghan for 17 yds to the Tulsa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
79.7%
Antario Brown run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 9Similar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+9
70.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 9 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 1:2274% → 86%
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
73.8%
Steven Anderson run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+38
73.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 38 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
75.6%
Davis Brin run for 10 yds to the NoIll 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
86.4%
Davis Brin pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 20 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:4916% → 17%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
83.6%
Mason Blakemore run for 3 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
83.4%
Mason Blakemore run for 2 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:1615% → 26%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
85.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 20 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
84.1%
Antario Brown run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+2
83.3%
Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+10
83.5%
Antario Brown run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
83.3%
Mason Blakemore run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+30
74.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 30 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14TD
10 plays · 54 yds · 2:4824% → 40%
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
76.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Liam Soraghan for 9 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+2
75.4%
Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
75.8%
Antario Brown run for no gain to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
76.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Liam SoraghanSimilar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 10
OPP 43
-5
76.8%
PENALTY NIU False Start 5 yards from Tulsa43 to Tulsa48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 15
OPP 48
+18
77.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 18 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
74.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 6 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+16
74.4%
Shotgun Lombardi,Rocky pass incomplete short right to Rutkiewicz,Kacper PENALTY Tulsa Pass Interference 16 yards from Tulsa24 to Tulsa08, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
60.1%
Antario Brown run for 8 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15MISSED FG
13 plays · 50 yds · 4:4067% → 68%
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
67.1%
Steven Anderson run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+2
67.4%
Steven Anderson run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+14
65.6%
Davis Brin pass complete to Malachai Jones for 14 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
69.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Malachai Jones for 15 yds to the NoIll 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
70.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Anderson,Steven rush left for 7 yards gain to the NIU34 (Rayner,Daveren) PENALTY Tulsa Holding (Baah,Chester) 10 yards from NIU41 to Tulsa49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 20
OWN 49
0
68.2%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 20
OWN 49
0
67.8%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Isaiah EppsSimilar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 20
OWN 49
+23
66.3%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 23 yds to the NoIll 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
71.0%
Steven Anderson run for 2 yds to the NoIll 26Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+4
71.0%
Steven Anderson run for 4 yds to the NoIll 22Similar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 4
OPP 22
0
69.7%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Bill JacksonSimilar
Q3 4:08
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+40
67.8%
Zack Long 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 4:1834% → 64%
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-10
66.4%
Shotgun Lombardi,Rocky pass incomplete short left to Rutkiewicz,Kacper QB hurried by Rogers,Everitt PENALTY NIU Holding 10 yards from NIU22 to NIU12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 20
OWN 12
-5
66.6%
PENALTY NIU False Start (Rutkiewicz,Kacper) 5 yards from NIU12 to NIU07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 25
OWN 7
+15
67.1%
TULSA Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 15 yards from NIU01 to NIU16, 1ST DOWN. (Grant Sawyer) to the NoIll 16Similar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
66.4%
Mason Blakemore run for no gain to the NoIll 16Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-5
66.9%
PENALTY NIU False Start (Thornton,Shemar) 5 yards from NIU16 to NIU11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 15
OWN 11
+10
66.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 10 yds to the NoIll 21Similar
Q3 4:08
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+28
67.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 28 yds to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
62.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Fabian McCray for 12 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
62.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Harrison Waylee for 7 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+1
60.3%
Harrison Waylee run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+33
36.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 33 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:1444% → 73%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
44.1%
Tahj Gary run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+14
46.8%
Tahj Gary run for 14 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
47.8%
Tahj Gary run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 6
50
+12
48.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 12 yds to the NoIll 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
49.2%
Tahj Gary run for 5 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+30
51.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 30 yds to the NoIll 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
51.2%
Tahj Gary run for 2 yds to the NoIll 1Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
51.2%
Tahj Gary run for no gain to the NoIll 1Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
48.8%
Steven Anderson run for no gain to the NoIll 1Similar
Q4 10:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.1%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 1 yd for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 0:5432% → 28%
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-10
67.8%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NoIll 14Similar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 14
OWN 14
0
69.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Liam SoraghanSimilar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 14
OWN 14
0
69.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q4 10:06
3RD & 14
OWN 14
0
71.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Mason BlakemoreSimilar
Q4 9:37
4TH & 14
OWN 14
+3
72.1%
Tom Foley punt for 49 yds , Keylon Stokes returns for 3 yds to the Tulsa 40 Keylon Stokes fumbled, recovered by NoIllSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 19TD
7 plays · 40 yds · 3:4037% → 78%
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
63.0%
Antario Brown run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+3
60.5%
Harrison Waylee run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
60.5%
Harrison Waylee run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+3
61.2%
Mason Blakemore run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q4 9:37
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+21
62.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Mason Blakemore for 21 yds to the Tulsa 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
59.9%
Mason Blakemore run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 1Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
21.8%
Rocky Lombardi run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:1937% → 39%
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
37.1%
Tahj Gary run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+20
36.6%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 20 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
41.8%
Tahj Gary run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
42.6%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q4 5:57
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+6
40.4%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 6 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q4 3:38
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+1
39.1%
Steven Anderson run for 1 yd to the NoIll 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4478% → 87%
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
21.6%
Antario Brown run for no gain to the NoIll 46Similar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+3
21.8%
Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+3
21.9%
Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q4 1:54
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
12.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to George GumbsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22TD
6 plays · 52 yds · 0:5629% → 95%
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
29.2%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-4
28.4%
Davis Brin sacked by Michael Kennedy for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 14
OWN 44
+24
23.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to Malachai Jones for 24 yds to the NoIll 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+31
36.9%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 31 yds to the NoIll 1 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Fabian McCray) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.8%
Steven Anderson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 23INT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:2213% → 13%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
86.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 13 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
84.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Mason BlakemoreSimilar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
85.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Kacper RutkiewiczSimilar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
86.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
96.5%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:58
Steven Anderson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)
+51.1
TD · Q4 5:57
Rocky Lombardi run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)
-38.1
TD · Q4 10:36
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 1 yd for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)
+28.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com