2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadKENN aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreKENN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:20 · Nathan Robertson 30 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:35: Josh Whyle 17 Yd pass from Ben Bryant (Ryan Coe Kick) — CIN win probability +3.1 pts (now 69%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:59: Ben Bryant pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 9 yds for a TD — CIN win probability +6.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:59: Tyler Scott 21 Yd pass from Ben Bryant (Ryan Coe Kick) — CIN win probability +9.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
- FG · Q2 4:20: Nathan Robertson 30 Yd Field Goal — KENN win probability +5.3 pts (now 18%) (top driver: KENN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 14:15: Jabari Taylor 23 Yd Fumble Return (Ryan Coe Kick) — CIN win probability +8.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: KENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 0 of 1KENN made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 7:06KENN 4th & 9 at CIN 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.0% before the snapGo for it48.9%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call49.0%51% to makePunt48.7%−0.2average punt
- Q2 4:20KENN 4th & 3 at CIN 13, down 21Close callKicked a field goal · 16.0% before the snapGo for it15.9%50% to convertField goalTheir call15.2%−0.785% to makePunt9.2%−6.7average punt
- Q2 1:59CIN 4th & 7 at CIN 49, up 18Close callPunted · 79.5% before the snapGo for it78.8%37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.6%−0.2average punt
- Q2 0:22KENN 4th & 2 at KENN 32, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.9% before the snapGo for it17.8%−1.057% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.8%average punt
- Q3 12:05KENN 4th & 10 at KENN 37, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snapGo for it4.6%−0.929% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.4%average punt
- Q4 3:47KENN 4th & 7 at KENN 38, down 46Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 1:36KENN 4th & 1 at KENN 34, down 53Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.171% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 5:35CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call54.6%97% to makeGo for two54.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:59CIN Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.4%97% to makeGo for two65.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:59CIN Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.0%97% to makeGo for two81.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:15CIN Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.4%97% to makeGo for two90.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:50CIN Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCINDrive 1PUNT3 plays · 7 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
KENNDrive 2MISSED FG14 plays · 52 yds · 12:4234% → 37%
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
65.7%
Xavier Shepherd pass complete to Iaan Cousin for 3 yds to the Ksaw 19Similar
Q1 12:42
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+26
65.8%
Xavier Shepherd pass complete to Blake Bohannon for 26 yds to the Ksaw 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+2
64.9%
Preston Daniels run for 2 yds to the Cincy 33 Preston Daniels fumbled, recovered by Ksaw Zion Katina for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3TD6 plays · 41 yds · 1:3166% → 69%
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
66.0%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tre Tucker for 12 yds to the Ksaw 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
CINDrive 5TD11 plays · 71 yds · 4:2769% → 77%
Q1 2:26
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+11
69.2%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 11 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
69.7%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tyler Scott for no gain to the Cincy 45 CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Cincy 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+30
70.5%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Will Pauling for 30 yds to the Ksaw 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 6DOWNS3 plays · 9 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
CINDrive 7TD4 plays · 34 yds · 1:1278% → 88%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 8DOWNS8 plays · 53 yds · 0:0014% → 15%
CINDrive 9FUMBLE1 play · -1 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 10FG4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4313% → 18%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11PUNT8 plays · 25 yds · 2:1485% → 86%
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
85.1%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Josh Whyle for 10 yds to the Cincy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
85.1%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 12 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-15
85.5%
BRYANT, Ben pass complete for 19 yards to SCOTT, Chris caught at the KSU43 and advanced to the KSU35 (MONTGOMERY, Markeith;BURKS, Je'Cory). PENALTY CIN Pass Interference on WHYLE, Josh enforced 15 yards to the CIN31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:13
1ST & 25
OWN 31
+4
85.1%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Will Pauling for 4 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 21
OWN 35
+14
85.9%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Charles McClelland for 14 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q2 1:59
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
85.8%
Mason Fletcher punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Isaac Foster at the Ksaw 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 12PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 1:3715% → 12%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 14FUMBLE RETURN TD2 plays · -2 yds · 0:4514% → 5%
KENNDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 2:105% → 4%
Q3 12:05
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
96.1%
Joshua Huiet punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Will Pauling at the Cincy 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16TD11 plays · 68 yds · 4:1597% → 99%
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
97.1%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 11 yds to the Ksaw 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
97.1%
Charles McClelland run for 12 yds to the Ksaw 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-8
97.1%
Ben Bryant sacked by Adam Watkins for a loss of 8 yards to the Ksaw 39Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 23
OPP 44
+21
97.1%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tyler Scott for 21 yds to the Ksaw 23Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+12
97.2%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Nick Mardner for 12 yds to the Ksaw 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 17TD1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 18PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19TD6 plays · 77 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+26
99.8%
Evan Prater pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 26 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+19
99.8%
Evan Prater pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 19 yds to the Ksaw 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+32
99.8%
Evan Prater pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 32 yds to the Ksaw 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
99.8%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass enforced (-5 Yards) to the Ksaw 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 20TD9 plays · 75 yds · 0:000% → 0%
CINDrive 21TD3 plays · 88 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
99.9%
Evan Prater pass complete to Chris Scott for 15 yds to the Ksaw 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 22PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 3:570% → 0%
Q4 3:47
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
100.0%
Joshua Huiet punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jadon Thompson at the Cincy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 2:000% → 0%
Q4 1:36
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
100.0%
Joshua Huiet punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jadon Thompson at the Cincy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:59
Tyler Scott 21 Yd pass from Ben Bryant (Ryan Coe Kick)
+9.7
TD · Q3 14:15
Jabari Taylor 23 Yd Fumble Return (Ryan Coe Kick)
+8.3
TD · Q2 12:59
Ben Bryant pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 9 yds for a TD
+6.3