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MEM

Memphis 37 at Navy 13

NAVY
2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreMEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:29 · Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Memph 29 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+54.5+27.30−27.3−54.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 125Home team on offense−15.5Pregame prior−7.7Score differential−9.2Garbage-time factor−5.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:00: Chris Howard 38 Yd Field Goal — MEM win probability +4.8 pts (now 73%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:56: Joseph Scates 79 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Chris Howard Kick) — MEM win probability +12.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:06: Tai Lavatai 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — NAVY win probability +9.3 pts (now 24%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:06: Daniel Davies kickoff for 65 yds , Julian Barnett return for 22 yds to the NAVY 43 MEMPHIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Memph 12 — MEM win probability +5.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:05: Brandon Thomas 6 Yd Run (Chris Howard Kick) — MEM win probability +11.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:33NAVY 4th & 7 at NAVY 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:03MEM 4th & 5 at MEM 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:52NAVY 4th & 8 at MEM 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.5%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    39.4%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    39.2%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:33MEM 4th & 10 at NAVY 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.8%
    77% to make
    Punt
    59.3%−2.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00MEM 4th & 3 at NAVY 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    58.3%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:32MEM 4th & 5 at NAVY 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    57.0%−0.7
    38% to make
    Punt
    57.0%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:42MEM 4th & 15 at MEM 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%−3.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:44NAVY 4th & 2 at NAVY 30, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:07NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 41, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:29MEM 4th & 4 at NAVY 4, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.7%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    69.5%−10.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:29NAVY 4th & 3 at MEM 47, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.1%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:29NAVY 4th & 1 at MEM 30, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    18.6%−2.4
    56% to make
    Punt
    17.2%−3.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00NAVY 4th & 3 at MEM 6, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.5%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    15.5%−1.0
    91% to make
    Punt
    7.4%−9.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:53NAVY 4th & 10 at MEM 45, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    3.1%−0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    3.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 1 of 2MEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:27MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:44NAVY Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:56MEM Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:06NAVY Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    21.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    20.9%−0.8
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:05MEM Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1TD
12 plays · 66 yds · 2:3369% → 69%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
31.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 11 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
31.1%
Brandon Thomas run for 3 yds to the Memph 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+4
31.1%
Seth Henigan run for 4 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+50
31.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 54 yds for a TDSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
31.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 11 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
31.6%
Brandon Thomas run for 3 yds to the Memph 42Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+4
31.6%
Seth Henigan run for 4 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q1 13:13
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+50
31.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 50 yds to the Navy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
31.7%
Brandon Thomas run for no gain to the Navy 4Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
31.2%
Caden Prieskorn 4 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Chris Howard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:5432% → 32%
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
31.5%
Tai Lavatai run for no gain to the Navy 35Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
31.4%
Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 6
OWN 39
-1
31.4%
Tai Lavatai sacked by Cormontae Hamilton for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 38Similar
Q1 10:33
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
31.5%
Riley Riethman punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Eddie Lewis at the Memph 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3069% → 68%
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
31.5%
Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd to the Memph 19Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 9
OWN 19
0
31.6%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Joseph ScatesSimilar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+4
31.7%
Seth Henigan run for 4 yds to the Memph 23Similar
Q1 9:03
4TH & 5
OWN 23
+4
31.9%
Joe Doyle punt for 48 yds , Amin Hassan returns for 4 yds to the Navy 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4DOWNS
9 plays · 32 yds · 4:1132% → 32%
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
31.9%
Maquel Haywood run for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
50
+2
32.4%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 2 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+5
32.4%
Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+5
32.4%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 5 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
32.4%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 1 yd to the Memph 37Similar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+1
32.4%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Memph 38Similar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+2
32.2%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Memph 36Similar
Q1 4:52
4TH & 8
OPP 36
+1
31.8%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Memph 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5FG
7 plays · 46 yds · 2:1969% → 69%
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
31.1%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Gabriel RogersSimilar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
31.3%
Jevyon Ducker run for 5 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q1 4:52
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+41
30.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 41 yds to the Navy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
30.4%
Jevyon Ducker run for no gain to the Navy 19Similar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
30.5%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Eddie LewisSimilar
Q1 4:52
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
30.7%
Jevyon Ducker run for no gain to the Navy 19Similar
Q1 2:33
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+37
30.6%
Chris Howard 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4930% → 35%
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
29.9%
Maquel Haywood run for 10 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
30.1%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 4 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+1
30.6%
Maquel Haywood run for 1 yd to the Navy 38Similar
Q1 0:44
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+62
34.9%
Anton Hall Jr. 62 Yd pass from Tai Lavatai (Evan Warren Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7DOWNS
11 plays · 34 yds · 5:1265% → 64%
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
35.0%
Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd to the Memph 30Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+15
34.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 15 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
33.9%
Brandon Thomas run for 6 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+2
33.7%
Brandon Thomas run for 2 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+1
33.9%
Seth Henigan run for 1 yd to the Navy 48 Seth Henigan fumbled, recovered by Memph Seth HeniganSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 48
+5
34.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 5 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
33.7%
Asa Martin run for no gain to the Navy 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-5
33.7%
Seth Henigan sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the Navy 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 48
+10
34.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 10 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q2 10:32
4TH & 5
OPP 38
+1
35.6%
Seth Henigan run for 1 yd to the Navy 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8INT
8 plays · 34 yds · 3:4637% → 39%
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
36.9%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
36.7%
Maquel Haywood run for 1 yd to the Navy 38Similar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+14
36.2%
Jayden Umbarger run for 14 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
38.6%
Logan Point run for 3 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+1
38.6%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Memph 44Similar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+11
38.2%
Maquel Haywood run for 11 yds to the Memph 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
39.3%
Logan Point run for 4 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
39.4%
Maquel Haywood pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 3:0464% → 62%
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
35.6%
PENALTY Mem Offside (Dale,Matt) 5 yards from Mem20 to Mem15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+5
35.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 5 yds to the Memph 20Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+16
35.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 16 yds to the Memph 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
34.6%
Seth Henigan run for 7 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+1
33.9%
Asa Martin run for 1 yd to the Memph 44Similar
Q2 6:46
3RD & 2
OWN 44
-8
34.1%
Seth Henigan sacked by Eavan Gibbons for a loss of 8 yards to the Memph 36 Seth Henigan fumbled, recovered by Memph Jacob Likes , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 6:46
4TH & 10
OWN 36
-5
36.9%
PENALTY Mem False Start 5 yards from Mem36 to Mem31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:42
4TH & 15
OWN 31
0
38.1%
Joe Doyle punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the Navy 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:5837% → 35%
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
36.5%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Navy 21Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 11
OWN 21
-10
36.3%
Terrell II,Vincent rush right for 3 yards gain to the Navy24 (Allen,Jaylon) PENALTY Navy Personal Foul (McMahon,Connor) 10 yards from Navy21 to Navy11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 21
OWN 11
+16
36.2%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 16 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q2 3:42
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+3
35.9%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 3 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
35.3%
Riley Riethman punt for 44 yds , Eddie Lewis returns for no gain to the Memph 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11FG
18 plays · 54 yds · 1:4464% → 73%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
35.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 9 yds to the Memph 35Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+4
34.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 4 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
34.0%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Javon IvorySimilar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
34.4%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Javon IvorySimilar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+11
35.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
50
+9
33.2%
Seth Henigan run for 9 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 1
OPP 41
0
32.1%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Eddie LewisSimilar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+2
32.3%
Jevyon Ducker run for 2 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
32.2%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Eddie LewisSimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+9
32.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Asa Martin for 9 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+3
32.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 3 yds to the Navy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
32.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 12 yds to the Navy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
31.5%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Caden PrieskornSimilar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-5
31.5%
PENALTY Mem False Start (Hamilton,Cormontae) 5 yards from Navy15 to Navy20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 15
OPP 20
+38
26.7%
Chris Howard 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:5334% → 33%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
33.5%
Maquel Haywood run for 9 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
35.3%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
34.2%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Navy 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
34.0%
Daba Fofana run for no gain to the Navy 37Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+4
33.1%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 4 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q3 12:07
4TH & 5
OWN 41
+6
32.8%
Riley Riethman punt for 44 yds , Eddie Lewis returns for 6 yds to the Memph 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13TD
1 play · 79 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+79
20.1%
Joseph Scates 79 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Chris Howard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14FUMBLE
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
23.3%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 4 yds to the Navy 39 Anton Hall Jr. fumbled, recovered by Memph Xavier CullensSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15FG
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:1781% → 86%
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
18.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 5 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 5
OPP 34
0
18.2%
Gabriel Rogers pass incomplete to Seth HeniganSimilar
Q3 11:46
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+26
18.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 26 yds to the Navy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-15
18.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Martin,Asa rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Navy04 (Marshall,John) PENALTY Mem Personal Foul (Gambill,Jonah) 15 yards from Navy08 to Navy23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 23
+1
18.3%
Ryan Glover run for 1 yd to the Navy 22Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 22
+3
18.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 3 yds to the Navy 19Similar
Q3 11:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
+15
18.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 15 yds to the Navy 4Similar
Q3 8:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
14.1%
Chris Howard 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16TD
24 plays · 74 yds · 11:2317% → 24%
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
16.5%
Logan Point run for 1 yd to the Navy 27Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
16.3%
Logan Point run for no gain to the Navy 27Similar
Q3 8:29
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+9
16.0%
Tai Lavatai run for 9 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
17.1%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+7
17.5%
Daniel Jones run for 7 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
18.1%
Logan Point run for 2 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+3
18.1%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q3 8:29
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+2
18.1%
Logan Point run for 2 yds to the Memph 47Similar
Q3 8:29
4TH & 3
OPP 47
+8
17.9%
Maquel Haywood run for 8 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
18.6%
Tai Lavatai run for no gain to the Memph 39Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
18.3%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 4 yds to the Memph 35Similar
Q3 8:29
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+5
18.4%
Daba Fofana run for 5 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q3 8:29
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+1
18.7%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Memph 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
19.2%
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the Memph 28Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+2
15.5%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the Memph 26Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+1
15.0%
Maquel Haywood run for 1 yd to the Memph 27Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+14
14.2%
PENALTY Mem Targeting (Cullens,Xavier) 14 yards from Mem27 to Mem13, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
15.7%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the Memph 11Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+4
15.7%
Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the Memph 7Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+1
15.2%
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the Memph 6Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+5
14.8%
Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the Memph 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
24.1%
Tai Lavatai 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17TD
14 plays · 88 yds · 6:0182% → 96%
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
18.5%
Brandon Thomas run for 2 yds to the Memph 14Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 8
OWN 14
0
18.8%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Javon IvorySimilar
Q4 12:06
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+17
19.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 17 yds to the Memph 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
17.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 6 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+13
17.1%
Brandon Thomas run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
50
0
16.3%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Seth Henigan) to the Memph 43Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 17
OWN 43
-5
17.6%
PENALTY Mem Delay Of Game (Henigan,Seth) 5 yards from Mem43 to Mem38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 22
OWN 38
+37
17.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Jevyon Ducker for 37 yds to the Navy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
15.7%
Jevyon Ducker run for 1 yd to the Navy 24Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 9
OPP 24
-4
15.7%
Seth Henigan sacked by Colin Ramos for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 28Similar
Q4 12:06
3RD & 13
OPP 28
+22
16.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 22 yds to the Navy 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
15.7%
Brandon Thomas run for no gain to the Navy 6Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
15.7%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Javon IvorySimilar
Q4 6:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
3.8%
Brandon Thomas 6 Yd Run (Chris Howard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18DOWNS
6 plays · 33 yds · 1:124% → 3%
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+33
4.4%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Vincent Terrell Jr. for 33 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
5.1%
Daba Fofana run for no gain to the Memph 45Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
5.0%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Vincent Terrell Jr.Similar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
4.8%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Mark WalkerSimilar
Q4 4:53
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
3.2%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Vincent Terrell Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19TD
2 plays · 55 yds · 0:0097% → 99%
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
3.3%
Asa Martin run for 8 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+45
0.9%
Asa Martin run for 45 yds to the Navy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20INT
13 plays · 39 yds · 3:181% → 1%
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
1.0%
Daniel Jones run for 7 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+10
1.0%
Logan Point run for 10 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
1.1%
Logan Point run for 3 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+6
1.1%
Logan Point run for 6 yds to the Memph 39Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+3
1.2%
Logan Point run for 3 yds to the Memph 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
1.1%
Xavier Arline run for 9 yds to the Memph 27Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 1
OPP 27
0
1.3%
Xavier Arline pass incomplete to Campbell SpeightsSimilar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+2
1.3%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the Memph 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
1.3%
Xavier Arline pass incomplete to Kroy MyersSimilar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-1
1.2%
Xavier Arline sacked by Geoffrey Cantin-Arku for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 26Similar
Q4 0:31
3RD & 11
OPP 26
0
0.8%
Xavier Arline pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
0.4%
Seth Henigan run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:56
Joseph Scates 79 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Chris Howard Kick)
-12.7
TD · Q4 6:05
Brandon Thomas 6 Yd Run (Chris Howard Kick)
-11.9
TD · Q4 12:06
Tai Lavatai 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+9.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com