Try the model
LAM

Lamar 16 at SMU 45

SMU
2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadLAM aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreLAM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:09 · Alfonso Deleon punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jordan Kerley at the SMU 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 109Pregame prior+38.0Home team on offense+11.1Score differential+4.7Garbage-time factor+1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.0Blowout margin+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:42: Khalan Griffin 1 Yd Run (Chris Esqueda Kick) — LAM win probability +0.7 pts (now 2%) (top driver: LAM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:38: TJ McDaniel 57 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick) — SMU win probability +1.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:24: TJ McDaniel 1 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick) — SMU win probability +1.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 2:14: Chris Esqueda 38 Yd Field Goal — LAM win probability +0.8 pts (now 2%) (top driver: LAM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:18: Rashee Rice 20 Yd pass from Tanner Mordecai (Collin Rogers Kick) — SMU win probability +1.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4LAM made the numbers' call on 12 of 15
  1. Q1 14:31LAM 4th & 9 at LAM 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:31LAM 4th & 9 at LAM 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 14:31SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 14:31LAM 4th & 8 at LAM 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:37SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 47, up 14
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:03LAM 4th & 15 at LAM 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:08SMU 4th & 3 at LAM 3, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.8%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    98.3%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:09LAM 4th & 1 at SMU 15, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%−0.2
    83% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:42LAM 4th & 1 at SMU 1, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−1.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:00LAM 4th & 10 at SMU 24, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:09LAM 4th & 7 at SMU 44, down 14
    Close callPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    2.2%−0.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:47LAM 4th & 7 at LAM 28, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:56LAM 4th & 1 at LAM 43, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.8%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:14LAM 4th & 20 at SMU 20, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.4
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:38LAM 4th & 6 at LAM 29, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:37LAM 4th & 4 at LAM 31, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:41LAM 4th & 18 at SMU 28, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:34SMU 4th & 21 at SMU 10, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:00LAM 4th & 4 at SMU 29, down 29
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    58% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6LAM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:18SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:27SMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:42LAM Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:38SMU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:24SMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:18SMU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:51SMU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LAMDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 0:290% → 0%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.6%
Mike Chandler pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.6%
Khalan Griffin run for 1 yd to the Lamar 26Similar
Q1 14:31
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
99.6%
LAMAR Penalty, Offensive Holding (Khalan Griffin) declinedSimilar
Q1 14:31
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
99.6%
Alfonso Deleon punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jordan Kerley at the SMU 37Similar
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.6%
Mike Chandler pass incomplete to Andre DennisSimilar
Q1 14:31
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
99.6%
Alfonso Deleon punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jordan Kerley at the SMU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q1 14:31
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+1
99.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 1 yd to the SMU 37Similar
Q1 14:31
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
99.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
99.6%
TJ McDaniel run for 1 yd to the SMU 38Similar
Q1 14:31
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
99.5%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Sevonne Rhea at the Lamar 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 3INT
4 plays · 23 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
99.6%
Mike Chandler pass incomplete to Jeremy DavisSimilar
Q1 14:31
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
99.6%
Mike Chandler pass interceptedSimilar
Q1 14:31
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
99.6%
Mike Chandler pass interceptedSimilar
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+23
99.6%
Mike Chandler run for 23 yds to the Lamar 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 4TD
6 plays · 38 yds · 3:13100% → 100%
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
99.6%
Velton Gardner run for 12 yds to the Lamar 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
99.6%
Velton Gardner run for 2 yds to the Lamar 8Similar
Q1 14:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
99.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 16 yds to the Lamar 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q1 11:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.5%
Rashee Rice 8 Yd pass from Tanner Mordecai (Collin Rogers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 5FUMBLE
4 plays · -14 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.6%
Damashja Harris run for 4 yds to the Lamar 29Similar
Q1 14:31
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
99.6%
Mike Chandler pass complete to Jalen Dummett for 2 yds to the Lamar 27Similar
Q1 14:31
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+16
99.6%
Mike Chandler run for 16 yds to the Lamar 11 Mike Chandler fumbled, recovered by SMU Gary WileySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 6TD
5 plays · 11 yds · 6:04100% → 99%
Q1 14:31
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+3
99.6%
TJ McDaniel run for 3 yds to the Lamar 8Similar
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
99.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Gage HaskinSimilar
Q1 14:31
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+6
99.6%
(14:31) No Huddle-Shotgun Mordecai,Tanner pass incomplete short right to Rice,Rashee, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Lamar Pass Interference (Roberts,DeMarco) 6 yards from Lamar08 to Lamar02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.6%
TJ McDaniel run for 1 yd to the Lamar 1Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.4%
Ben Redding 1 Yd pass from Tanner Mordecai (Collin Rogers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.6%
Khalan Griffin run for 2 yds to the Lamar 27Similar
Q1 14:31
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
99.6%
Mike Chandler pass incomplete to Kyndon FuselierSimilar
Q1 14:31
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
99.6%
Khalan Griffin run for no gain to the Lamar 27Similar
Q1 14:31
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
99.6%
Alfonso Deleon punt for 51 yds , Jordan Kerley returns for no gain to the SMU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 41 yds · 9:54100% → 99%
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
99.6%
Tyler Lavine run for 4 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+22
99.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Kelvontay Dixon for 22 yds to the SMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:31
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+8
99.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 8 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
99.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Kelvontay Dixon for 9 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q1 14:31
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+2
99.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Kelvontay Dixon for 2 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q1 14:31
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
99.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Kelvontay DixonSimilar
Q1 4:37
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
99.3%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 4:341% → 1%
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
99.3%
Mike Chandler pass complete to Jeremy Davis for 2 yds to the Lamar 18Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+5
99.3%
Khalan Griffin run for 5 yds to the Lamar 23Similar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 3
OWN 23
-5
99.2%
PENALTY Lamar Illegal Substitution 5 yards from Lamar23 to Lamar18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+13
99.3%
Mike Chandler pass complete to Sevonne Rhea for 13 yds to the Lamar 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
99.2%
Khalan Griffin run for 1 yd to the Lamar 32Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 9
OWN 32
-11
99.2%
Mike Chandler sacked by Junior Aho for a loss of 11 yards to the Lamar 21Similar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 20
OWN 21
+5
99.3%
Mike Chandler run for 5 yds to the Lamar 26Similar
Q1 0:03
4TH & 15
OWN 26
+6
99.1%
Alfonso Deleon punt for 50 yds , Jordan Kerley returns for 6 yds to the SMU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10FG
13 plays · 82 yds · 2:5299% → 99%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
99.1%
Velton Gardner run for 4 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+27
99.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 27 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST down LAMAR Penalty, Defensive Offside (Khalan Griffin) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
99.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Mordecai,Tanner pass incomplete short right to Rice,Rashee broken up by Alexander,Damian PENALTY Lamar Pass Interference (Alexander,Damian) 15 yards from SMU46 to Lamar39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
99.2%
Velton Gardner run for 7 yds to the Lamar 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+1
99.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 1 yd to the Lamar 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+2
99.2%
Velton Gardner run for 2 yds to the Lamar 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Roderick Daniels Jr.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+14
99.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Kelvontay Dixon for 14 yds to the Lamar 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
99.2%
Velton Gardner run for 10 yds to the Lamar 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
99.2%
Velton Gardner run for 2 yds to the Lamar 3Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to TJ McDanielSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q2 12:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
99.2%
Collin Rogers 20 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 11TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 8:261% → 2%
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.1%
Damashja Harris run for 4 yds to the Lamar 29Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
99.1%
Mike Chandler pass complete to Jalen Dummett for 12 yds to the Lamar 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
99.1%
Hunter Batten run for 5 yds to the Lamar 46Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+15
99.1%
Mike Chandler pass complete to Jalen Dummett for 15 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-4
99.0%
Mike Chandler sacked by Elijah Chatman for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 43Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 14
OPP 43
+19
99.1%
Mike Chandler pass complete to Major Bowden for 19 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
99.0%
Major Bowden run for no gain to the SMU 24Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+8
99.0%
Khalan Griffin run for 8 yds to the SMU 16Similar
Q2 7:09
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+1
98.8%
Mike Chandler run for 1 yd to the SMU 15Similar
Q2 7:09
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+8
98.8%
Jalen Dummett run for 8 yds to the SMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
98.7%
Khalan Griffin run for 1 yd to the SMU 8Similar
Q2 5:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
98.5%
PENALTY SMU Delay Of Game (Reid,Shanon) 4 yards from SMU08 to SMU04. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
98.5%
Khalan Griffin run for 2 yds to the SMU 2Similar
Q2 5:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
98.6%
Damashja Harris run for 1 yd to the SMU 1Similar
Q2 3:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.8%
Khalan Griffin 1 Yd Run (Chris Esqueda Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 1:0498% → 99%
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
97.8%
TJ McDaniel run for 7 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+1
97.9%
TJ McDaniel run for 1 yd to the SMU 40Similar
Q2 3:42
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+3
97.8%
TJ McDaniel run for 3 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
99.2%
TJ McDaniel 57 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 13FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 2:381% → 2%
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.1%
Mike Chandler run for 6 yds to the Lamar 31Similar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+30
98.9%
Sevonne Rhea run for 15 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, Personal Foul (Isaac Slade-Matautia) to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
98.8%
Major Bowden run for 5 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+1
99.0%
Damashja Harris run for 1 yd to the SMU 45Similar
Q2 2:38
3RD & 16
OPP 45
+21
99.2%
Mike Chandler pass complete to Devyn Gibbs for 21 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
98.7%
Mike Chandler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
98.7%
Mike Chandler pass incomplete to Sevonne RheaSimilar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 10
OPP 24
0
98.8%
Mike Chandler pass incomplete to Sevonne RheaSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+42
98.2%
Chris Esqueda 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14FUMBLE
3 plays · 28 yds · 0:2698% → 98%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
98.2%
Velton Gardner run for 6 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q3 14:34
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+22
98.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 22 yds Rashee Rice fumbled, recovered by Lamar Ramond StevensSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:252% → 2%
Q3 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
98.0%
Jalen Dummett run for 16 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
97.8%
Khalan Griffin run for 3 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q3 14:34
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
97.8%
Mike Chandler pass incomplete to Sevonne RheaSimilar
Q3 14:34
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
97.9%
Mike Chandler pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:09
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
97.8%
Alfonso Deleon punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jordan Kerley at the SMU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16TD
7 plays · 92 yds · 1:4598% → 99%
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+40
98.1%
Velton Gardner run for 40 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
98.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Velton Gardner for 9 yds to the Lamar 43Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 1
OPP 43
0
98.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q3 13:09
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+6
98.1%
TJ McDaniel run for 6 yds to the Lamar 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+33
98.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 33 yds to the Lamar 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
98.2%
TJ McDaniel run for 3 yds to the Lamar 1Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.3%
TJ McDaniel 1 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:371% → 1%
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.2%
Mike Chandler run for 1 yd to the Lamar 26Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
99.2%
Damashja Harris run for 2 yds to the Lamar 28Similar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
99.2%
Mike Chandler pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:47
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
99.2%
Alfonso Deleon punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Jordan Kerley at the SMU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18INT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:5199% → 99%
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
99.2%
Tyler Lavine run for 5 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 5
OWN 26
0
99.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Roderick Daniels Jr.Similar
Q3 9:47
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+6
99.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 6 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
99.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Austin UpshawSimilar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
99.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Roderick Daniels Jr.Similar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
99.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 19FG
16 plays · 46 yds · 6:421% → 2%
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
99.1%
Khalan Griffin run for 3 yds to the Lamar 37Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+5
99.1%
Khalan Griffin run for 5 yds to the Lamar 42Similar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+1
99.1%
Mike Chandler run for 1 yd to the Lamar 43Similar
Q3 8:56
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+2
99.1%
Damian Alexander run for 2 yds to the Lamar 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.1%
Mike Chandler pass incomplete to Sevonne RheaSimilar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
99.1%
Mike Chandler run for 1 yd to the Lamar 46Similar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+15
99.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Chandler,Michael pass incomplete short right to Batten,Hunter PENALTY SMU Targeting (Levelston,DeVere) 15 yards from Lamar46 to SMU39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
99.1%
Khalan Griffin run for 1 yd to the SMU 38Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 9
OPP 38
-5
99.1%
PENALTY Lamar False Start (Dicharry,Jacob) 5 yards from SMU38 to SMU43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 14
OPP 43
+20
99.1%
Mike Chandler pass complete to Jalen Dummett for 20 yds to the SMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+13
99.0%
Mike Chandler pass complete to Jalen Dummett for 13 yds to the SMU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.0%
Mike Chandler pass incomplete to Kyndon FuselierSimilar
Q3 8:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-10
99.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Batten,Hunter rush left for 1 yard loss to the SMU11 (Wiley,Gary; Chatman,Elijah) PENALTY Lamar Holding (Moss,Drew) 10 yards from SMU10 to SMU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 20
0
99.0%
Mike Chandler pass incomplete to Andre DennisSimilar
Q3 8:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
0
99.1%
Mike Chandler pass incomplete to Andre DennisSimilar
Q3 2:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 20
+38
98.3%
Chris Esqueda 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 1:5699% → 100%
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
98.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Kelvontay DixonSimilar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+1
98.6%
TJ McDaniel run for 1 yd to the SMU 31Similar
Q3 2:14
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+15
98.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 15 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
98.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Mordecai,Tanner pass incomplete short left to Kerley,Jordan PENALTY Lamar Pass Interference (Alexander,Damian) 15 yards from SMU46 to Lamar39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
98.7%
Velton Gardner run for 8 yds to the Lamar 31Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+4
98.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 4 yds to the Lamar 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
98.7%
Velton Gardner run for 7 yds to the Lamar 20Similar
Q3 0:18
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+20
99.8%
Rashee Rice 20 Yd pass from Tanner Mordecai (Collin Rogers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 5 yds · 1:220% → 0%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.7%
Jalen Dummett sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the Lamar 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+14
99.5%
Mike Chandler pass complete to Sevonne Rhea for 14 yds to the Lamar 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-5
99.6%
PENALTY Lamar False Start (Moss,Drew) 5 yards from Lamar34 to Lamar29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:55
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
99.7%
Mike Chandler pass incomplete to Sevonne RheaSimilar
Q4 13:38
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+1
99.7%
Mike Chandler run for 1 yd to the Lamar 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22TD
5 plays · 30 yds · 1:47100% → 100%
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
99.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Lavine,Tyler rush middle for 13 yards gain to the Lamar17 (Owens,Adrian) PENALTY SMU Illegal Shift (Hickman,Branson) 5 yards from Lamar30 to Lamar35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+10
99.8%
TJ McDaniel run for 10 yds to the Lamar 25Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+1
99.8%
Preston Stone pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 1 yd to the Lamar 24Similar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+16
99.8%
Preston Stone pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 16 yds to the Lamar 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.9%
Preston Stone 8 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:090% → 0%
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
100.0%
PENALTY Lamar False Start (Moss,Drew) 5 yards from Lamar25 to Lamar20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
100.0%
Major Bowden run for 4 yds to the Lamar 24Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
100.0%
RJ Carver run for 4 yds to the Lamar 28Similar
Q4 11:46
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+3
100.0%
Nick Yockey pass complete to Devyn Gibbs for 3 yds to the Lamar 31Similar
Q4 9:37
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
100.0%
Alfonso Deleon punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Kelvontay Dixon at the SMU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24INT
2 plays · 18 yds · 0:30100% → 100%
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+18
99.9%
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 18 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Preston Stone pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 25FG
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:260% → 0%
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-10
100.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Yockey,Nick pass complete short middle to Jones,Izaha for 10 yards to the SMU10, out of bounds at SMU10 PENALTY Lamar Holding (Malone,Kendric) 10 yards from SMU20 to SMU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 20
OPP 30
0
100.0%
Nick Yockey pass incomplete to Kyndon FuselierSimilar
Q4 9:07
2ND & 20
OPP 30
0
100.0%
Nick Yockey pass incomplete to RJ CarverSimilar
Q4 9:07
3RD & 20
OPP 30
+2
100.0%
Major Bowden run for 2 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q4 7:41
4TH & 18
OPP 28
+46
100.0%
Chris Esqueda 46 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 2:04100% → 100%
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
99.9%
TJ McDaniel run for 2 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+2
99.9%
Preston Stone pass complete to TJ McDaniel for 2 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q4 7:38
3RD & 10
OWN 21
-11
99.9%
Preston Stone sacked by Caleb Arnold for a loss of 11 yards to the SMU 10Similar
Q4 5:34
4TH & 21
OWN 10
0
100.0%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Kyndon Fuselier at the Lamar 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 27DOWNS
8 plays · 32 yds · 4:340% → 0%
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
100.0%
Nick Yockey pass complete to Jacoby Davis for 9 yds to the Lamar 48Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+3
100.0%
RJ Carver run for 3 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
100.0%
Nick Yockey pass complete to Keshaun Lazard for 9 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+5
100.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Carver,RJ rush left for 1 yard gain to the SMU39 (Burns,Keke) PENALTY SMU Offside (Sneed,Trevion) 5 yards from SMU40 to SMU35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
100.0%
Nick Yockey pass incomplete to Keshaun LazardSimilar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
100.0%
Major Bowden run for 4 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q4 5:34
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+2
100.0%
Major Bowden run for 2 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 4
OPP 29
0
100.0%
Nick Yockey pass incomplete to Kyndon FuselierSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · 6 yds · 1:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
100.0%
Brandon Epton Jr. run for 4 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+2
100.0%
Brandon Epton Jr. run for 2 yds to the SMU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:38
TJ McDaniel 57 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)
+1.2
TD · Q3 11:24
TJ McDaniel 1 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)
+1.1
TD · Q3 0:18
Rashee Rice 20 Yd pass from Tanner Mordecai (Collin Rogers Kick)
+1.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com