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LOU

Louisville 20 at UCF 14

UCF
2022 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2022 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:24 · Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Braden Smith
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 84Pregame prior+9.9Home team on offense+4.8Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential+1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:31: Isaiah Bowser 3 Yd Run (Daniel Obarski Kick) — UCF win probability +4.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:46: Malik Cunningham 43 Yd Run (James Turner Kick) — LOU win probability +18.9 pts (now 54%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 9:45: James Turner 35 Yd Field Goal — LOU win probability +7.2 pts (now 72%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:38: John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Alec Holler — UCF win probability +12.5 pts (now 33%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:20: Tiyon Evans run for 6 yds to the Lvile 26 — LOU win probability +16.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 8 of 11LOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 4:46LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:36UCF 4th & 7 at UCF 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:14LOU 4th & 13 at UCF 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    33.7%−2.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:09UCF 4th & 10 at LOU 43, up 7
    Close callPunted · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    70.3%−0.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:40LOU 4th & 10 at LOU 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:14UCF 4th & 10 at LOU 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−0.7
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    67.6%−4.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:24LOU 4th & 5 at LOU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.3%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:55UCF 4th & 6 at LOU 45, up 7
    Close callPunted · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    72.5%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.5%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00LOU 4th & 9 at LOU 43, down 7
    Numbers favored punt by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.9%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:17UCF 4th & 9 at UCF 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−1.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:49LOU 4th & 11 at LOU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−2.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:29UCF 4th & 13 at UCF 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−2.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:07LOU 4th & 12 at UCF 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−2.2
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.8%
    80% to make
    Punt
    16.4%−8.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:58UCF 4th & 13 at UCF 22, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−4.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:00UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−2.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:45LOU 4th & 10 at UCF 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−3.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    44.1%−17.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:13UCF 4th & 7 at UCF 37, down 6
    Close callPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%−0.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:41LOU 4th & 4 at LOU 47, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    79.3%−0.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:52UCF 4th & 5 at LOU 5, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.1%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    22.7%−6.4
    92% to make
    Punt
    11.3%−17.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:47LOU 4th & 4 at LOU 26, up 6
    Close callPunted · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:15UCF 4th & 5 at LOU 37, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    11.5%−7.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    10.7%−8.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2LOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:03LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:33UCF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:31UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:46LOU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:1732% → 34%
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
68.2%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 23 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
68.1%
Tiyon Evans run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 8
50
0
68.0%
Tiyon Evans run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 8
50
+9
67.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 9 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-15
67.8%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the Lvile 44Similar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 25
OWN 44
+3
67.9%
Tiyon Evans run for 3 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 22
OWN 47
+17
67.8%
Malik Cunningham run for 17 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+9
67.5%
Malik Cunningham run for 9 yds to the UCF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
67.3%
Tiyon Evans run for 7 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+13
67.2%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 13 yds to the UCF 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
65.6%
Tiyon Evans 7 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 2:5766% → 69%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
65.8%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+2
65.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 2 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+8
65.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 8 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+27
65.4%
Ryan O'Keefe run for 27 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
66.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for 10 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
66.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the Lvile 28Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+7
66.0%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 7 yds to the Lvile 21Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+15
65.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 15 yds to the Lvile 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
65.8%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 4 yds to the Lvile 2Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
68.5%
Isaiah Bowser 2 Yd Run (Daniel Obarski Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1433% → 33%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
67.1%
Malik Cunningham run for 2 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
67.0%
Tiyon Evans run for 7 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
66.7%
Tiyon Evans run for no gain to the Lvile 34Similar
Q1 4:46
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
67.1%
Mark Vassett punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Divaad Wilson at the UCF 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:5467% → 67%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+21
67.1%
Johnny Richardson run for 21 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
68.0%
Johnny Richardson run for 3 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
68.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Ryan O'KeefeSimilar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
67.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Kemore GambleSimilar
Q1 3:36
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
67.0%
Andrew Osteen punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5MISSED FG
9 plays · 52 yds · 4:1633% → 34%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
66.7%
Malik Cunningham run for 8 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+11
66.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 11 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
65.6%
Malik Cunningham run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 4
50
+30
64.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 30 yds to the UCF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
64.2%
Ahmari Huggins-Bruce run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 22Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+4
64.1%
Malik Cunningham run for 4 yds to the UCF 18Similar
Q1 0:05
3RD & 8
OPP 18
-5
64.4%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 23Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 13
OPP 23
0
64.9%
Malik Cunningham run for no gain to the UCF 23Similar
Q2 14:14
4TH & 13
OPP 23
+41
65.8%
James Turner 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 2:2967% → 74%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
66.8%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+22
66.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 22 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
68.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Alec Holler for no gain to the UCF 47Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+28
67.8%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 28 yds to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
68.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 4 yds to the Lvile 21Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 6
OPP 21
0
68.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+15
68.3%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 15 yds to the Lvile 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 0
OPP 6
+3
69.6%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Substitution Infraction (3 Yards) to the Lvile 3Similar
Q2 11:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
73.9%
Isaiah Bowser 3 Yd Run (Daniel Obarski Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7FUMBLE
4 plays · 34 yds · 0:2928% → 28%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
72.0%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Ahmari Huggins-BruceSimilar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+12
72.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 12 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+24
71.9%
Tiyon Evans run for 22 yds to the UCF 49 Tiyon Evans fumbled, forced by Quadric Bullard, recovered by UCF Divaad Wilson , return for 9 yds to the Lvile 42 UCF Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the UCF 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 2:1174% → 73%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
73.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for no gain to the UCF 43Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+9
73.4%
Johnny Richardson run for 9 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 1
OPP 48
0
73.8%
John Rhys Plumlee run for no gain to the Lvile 48Similar
Q2 9:45
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+5
73.1%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
74.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 2 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+3
74.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 3 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q2 8:17
3RD & 5
OPP 38
0
74.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Javon BakerSimilar
Q2 8:17
4TH & 5
OPP 38
-5
73.4%
UCF Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 43Similar
Q2 8:09
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
73.4%
Andrew Osteen punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2027% → 25%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
73.3%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Dee WigginsSimilar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
73.4%
Tiyon Evans run for 1 yd to the Lvile 21Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-1
74.1%
Malik Cunningham run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 20Similar
Q2 6:40
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+10
74.9%
Mark Vassett punt for 55 yds , Jordan McDonald returns for 10 yds to the UCF 35, UCF Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the UCF 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10MISSED FG
10 plays · 60 yds · 2:0674% → 75%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
74.3%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked by YaYa Diaby for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 24Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+15
74.2%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
75.3%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 4 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+15
75.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 25 yds to the LOUISVILLE 32 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
76.2%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Lvile 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
76.6%
Johnny Richardson run for 12 yds to the Lvile 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
76.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
76.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:19
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
75.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:14
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+32
74.8%
Daniel Obarski 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11DOWNS
5 plays · 29 yds · 1:3626% → 26%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+24
74.2%
Jalen Mitchell run for 24 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
72.7%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+1
73.2%
Jalen Mitchell run for 1 yd to the Lvile 45Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+4
73.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for 4 yds to the Lvile 49Similar
Q2 2:24
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
74.0%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Braden SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:1577% → 74%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
76.6%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 9 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 1
OPP 40
-5
76.8%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 45Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
76.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Javon BakerSimilar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
76.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Xavier Townsend for no gain to the Lvile 45Similar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
74.3%
Andrew Osteen punt for 43 yds, downed at the Lvile 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13END OF HALF
10 plays · 62 yds · 0:5025% → 25%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
74.7%
Tiyon Evans run for 4 yds to the Lvile 6Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+22
74.8%
Malik Cunningham run for 22 yds to the Lvile 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
73.6%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tyler HudsonSimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+14
74.2%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 14 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
72.4%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tyler HudsonSimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+1
72.9%
Malik Cunningham run for 1 yd to the Lvile 43Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 9
OWN 43
0
73.2%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 9
OWN 43
+21
74.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 21 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3375% → 73%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
74.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 7 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-6
75.8%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked by Momo Sanogo and YaYa Diaby for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 26Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
73.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Johnny Richardson for no gain to the UCF 26Similar
Q3 13:17
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+7
73.0%
Andrew Osteen punt for 47 yds , Braden Smith returns for 7 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2227% → 24%
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
73.3%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tyler HudsonSimilar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+4
73.7%
Jawhar Jordan run for 4 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q3 12:27
3RD & 6
OWN 38
-5
73.6%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 33Similar
Q3 11:59
3RD & 11
OWN 33
0
75.2%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tyler HudsonSimilar
Q3 11:49
4TH & 11
OWN 33
0
75.7%
Mark Vassett punt for 48 yds , Jordan McDonald returns for no gain to the UCF 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 2:0175% → 75%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
75.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for 8 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+5
76.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the UCF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
75.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 31Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 11
OWN 31
-2
75.5%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked by Ramon Puryear for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 29Similar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 13
OWN 29
0
76.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Jaylon GriffinSimilar
Q3 9:29
4TH & 13
OWN 29
0
75.2%
Andrew Osteen punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the Lvile 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17FG
9 plays · 50 yds · 3:0826% → 30%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
74.1%
Tiyon Evans run for 3 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+15
73.7%
UCF Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-8
71.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tiyon Evans for 2 yds to the Lvile 47 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Lvile 43Similar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 18
OWN 43
+5
74.5%
Tiyon Evans run for 5 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 13
OWN 48
+37
74.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 37 yds to the UCF 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
69.9%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Tre'mon Morris-Brash for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 16Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 11
OPP 16
-1
70.4%
Tiyon Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 17Similar
Q3 6:11
3RD & 12
OPP 17
0
72.5%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Marshon FordSimilar
Q3 6:07
4TH & 12
OPP 17
+35
70.0%
James Turner 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:5772% → 70%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
71.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
71.5%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked by Dorian Jones for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 22Similar
Q3 5:04
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-6
69.8%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-6 Yards) to the UCF 16Similar
Q3 4:25
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+6
70.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 6 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q3 3:58
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+5
69.5%
Andrew Osteen punt for 40 yds , Braden Smith returns for 5 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19TD
3 plays · 57 yds · 1:0133% → 54%
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+18
67.1%
Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-4
65.3%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Josh Celiscar for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 43Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 14
OPP 43
+43
46.3%
Malik Cunningham 43 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 2:3052% → 47%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the UCF 25Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
51.2%
UCF Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-10 Yards) to the UCF 15Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+7
50.6%
Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the UCF 17 LOUISVILLE Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the UCF 22Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+1
50.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 1 yd to the UCF 23Similar
Q3 0:20
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+4
48.2%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 4 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+5
47.3%
Andrew Osteen punt for 33 yds , Braden Smith returns for 5 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21FG
12 plays · 37 yds · 4:4555% → 72%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 0
OWN 45
+16
45.0%
Tiyon Evans run for 1 yd to the UCF 46 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
42.7%
Tiyon Evans run for 4 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+1
40.7%
Tiyon Evans run for 1 yd to the UCF 34Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+5
42.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for 5 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
37.5%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Melton for 8 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+3
37.1%
Tiyon Evans run for 3 yds to the UCF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
37.3%
Malik Cunningham run for 2 yds to the UCF 16Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 8
OPP 16
-2
34.7%
Malik Cunningham run for 8 yds to the UCF 8 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UCF 18Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
34.1%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:49
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
35.3%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:45
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+35
28.1%
James Turner 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:0237% → 35%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
37.0%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 7 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+10
37.8%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 10 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
37.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
39.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Javon BakerSimilar
Q4 8:19
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
36.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Javon BakerSimilar
Q4 8:13
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
35.2%
Andrew Osteen punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the Lvile 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23DOWNS
10 plays · 21 yds · 2:1973% → 80%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
26.8%
Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
24.1%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Marshon FordSimilar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+12
23.1%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for 12 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
20.0%
Jalen Mitchell run for 1 yd to the Lvile 42Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+5
19.9%
Malik Cunningham run for 5 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
Q4 6:17
3RD & 4
OWN 47
-5
19.7%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 42Similar
Q4 5:54
3RD & 9
OWN 42
0
19.9%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Braden SmithSimilar
Q4 5:47
4TH & 9
OWN 42
+5
22.3%
UCF Penalty, Running Into Kicker (5 Yards) to the Lvile 47Similar
Q4 5:41
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
20.4%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Marshon FordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24INT
9 plays · 42 yds · 2:4633% → 28%
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
33.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Alec HollerSimilar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
31.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+24
30.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 24 yds to the Lvile 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
34.1%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 7 yds to the Lvile 12Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+3
34.1%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the Lvile 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
34.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
33.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the Lvile 4Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
31.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 5Similar
Q4 2:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
27.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass intercepted, touchback. Jarvis Brownlee return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:3389% → 90%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
11.5%
Tiyon Evans run for 6 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
10.7%
Tiyon Evans run for no gain to the Lvile 26Similar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
8.7%
Malik Cunningham run for no gain to the Lvile 26Similar
Q4 1:47
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+17
10.1%
Mark Vassett punt for 48 yds , Xavier Townsend returns for 17 yds to the UCF 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 26DOWNS
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:2617% → 15%
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
16.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 15 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
19.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Javon BakerSimilar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
16.5%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Lvile 37Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 5
OPP 37
0
20.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Jaylon GriffinSimilar
Q4 1:21
3RD & 5
OPP 37
0
17.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Javon BakerSimilar
Q4 1:15
4TH & 5
OPP 37
0
15.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Xavier TownsendSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:3095% → 94%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
5.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 35Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 12
OWN 35
-2
6.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:46
Malik Cunningham 43 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)
-18.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:20
Tiyon Evans run for 6 yds to the Lvile 26
-16.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 5:38
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Alec Holler
+12.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com