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DEL

Delaware 14 at Navy 7

NAVY
2022 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2022 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadDEL aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreDEL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:16 · Ben Dinkel punt for 45 yds , Amin Hassan returns for 6 yds to the Delaw 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 166Pregame prior+1.8Home team on offense−26.5Garbage-time factor−12.5Score differential−4.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−7.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 4:30: Nolan Henderson pass complete to Chandler Harvin for 51 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ratcliffe KICK) — DEL win probability +22.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: DEL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:29: Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds for a TD, (Evan Warren KICK) — NAVY win probability +16.4 pts (now 47%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:38: Daba Fofana run for 6 yds to the Delaw 40 — NAVY win probability +11.3 pts (now 40%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:16: Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Mark Walker — NAVY win probability +12.6 pts (now 28%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:18: Nolan Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Delaw 8 — DEL win probability +14.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: DEL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 10 of 11DEL made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
  1. Q1 13:16NAVY 4th & 13 at NAVY 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:33DEL 4th & 5 at DEL 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:22NAVY 4th & 9 at DEL 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    73.9%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:19DEL 4th & 24 at DEL 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−1.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:56DEL 4th & 11 at NAVY 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.8%
    62% to make
    Punt
    26.4%−2.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:34DEL 4th & 2 at NAVY 2, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    35.5%−1.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    30.4%−6.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:38NAVY 4th & 2 at DEL 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    62.5%−2.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    63.1%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:25DEL 4th & 3 at NAVY 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    40.6%−0.8
    56% to make
    Punt
    39.1%−2.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:19DEL 4th & 14 at DEL 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−3.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:13NAVY 4th & 23 at NAVY 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−5.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:13NAVY 4th & 23 at NAVY 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−5.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:15DEL 4th & 12 at DEL 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−3.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:42NAVY 4th & 6 at NAVY 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−1.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:05DEL 4th & 12 at DEL 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−3.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:23NAVY 4th & 2 at NAVY 22, down 7
    Close callPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:38DEL 4th & 2 at DEL 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    68.7%−1.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:58NAVY 4th & 3 at DEL 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    29.4%−4.6
    36% to make
    Punt
    29.4%−4.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:18DEL 4th & 17 at DEL 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−5.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:47NAVY 4th & 8 at NAVY 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:16DEL 4th & 13 at DEL 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%−3.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.7%
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:18NAVY 4th & 4 at DEL 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.4%
    43% to convert
    Field goal
    13.4%−5.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    8.6%−9.9
    average punt
  22. Q4 1:18NAVY 4th & 4 at DEL 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.4%
    43% to convert
    Field goal
    13.4%−5.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    8.6%−9.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1DEL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 14:38DEL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 4:30DEL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:29NAVY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1FUMBLE
2 plays · -7 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
80.4%
Tai Lavatai run for 7 yds to the Navy 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 2TD
2 plays · 21 yds · 0:1020% → 20%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+15
80.4%
Shotgun Henderson,Nolan pass incomplete short middle to Pitts,Thyrick PENALTY Navy Pass Interference (Lane,Rayuan) 15 yards from Navy21 to Navy06, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
80.3%
Nolan Henderson pass complete to Bryce De Maille for 6 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ratcliffe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:1780% → 80%
Q1 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
80.3%
Logan Point run for 2 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q1 14:33
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+5
80.3%
Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q1 14:33
3RD & 13
OWN 29
0
80.3%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Mark WalkerSimilar
Q1 13:16
4TH & 13
OWN 29
0
79.6%
Riley Riethman punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Jourdan Townsend at the Delaw 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4320% → 21%
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
79.6%
Nolan Henderson pass incomplete to Bryce De MailleSimilar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
79.6%
Nolan Henderson pass complete to Thyrick Pitts for 9 yds Thyrick Pitts fumbled, forced by Rayuan Lane III, recovered by Delaw Thyrick PittsSimilar
Q1 12:23
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+4
79.2%
Kyron Cumby run for 4 yds to the Delaw 25Similar
Q1 11:33
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
78.9%
Ben Dinkel punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5MISSED FG
16 plays · 45 yds · 7:1179% → 75%
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
78.8%
Maquel Haywood run for 9 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+2
79.0%
Logan Point run for 2 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
78.9%
Logan Point run for 2 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+2
78.9%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+2
78.9%
Daniel Jones run for 2 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q1 11:33
4TH & 4
OWN 44
+5
78.8%
PENALTY Del Offside (Walsh,Tommy) 5 yards from Navy44 to Navy49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
79.0%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 4 yds to the Delaw 47Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+5
79.1%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 5 yds to the Delaw 42Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+3
79.1%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the Delaw 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
79.1%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 5 yds to the Delaw 34Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+1
79.2%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 1 yd to the Delaw 33Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+4
79.1%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 4 yds to the Delaw 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
79.2%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 2 yds to the Delaw 27Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+2
79.2%
Logan Point run for 2 yds to the Delaw 25Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+3
79.1%
Jayden Umbarger run for 3 yds to the Delaw 28Similar
Q1 4:22
4TH & 9
OPP 28
+45
74.9%
Evan Warren 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:0326% → 27%
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
74.3%
Kyron Cumby run for 3 yds to the Delaw 25Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 13
OWN 25
+34
74.5%
Nolan Henderson pass complete to Brett Buckman for 34 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
73.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Henderson,Nolan pass complete short right to Cumby,Kyron for 3 yards loss to the Navy44 (Larry,Elias) PENALTY Del Holding (de Maille,Bryce) 10 yards from Navy41 to Del49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 20
OWN 49
0
73.9%
Nolan Henderson pass incomplete to Thyrick PittsSimilar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 20
OWN 49
0
74.1%
Nolan Henderson pass incomplete to Brett BuckmanSimilar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 20
OWN 49
-4
74.2%
Nolan Henderson sacked by John Marshall for a loss of 4 yards to the Delaw 45Similar
Q1 2:19
4TH & 24
OWN 45
0
73.3%
Ben Dinkel punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the Navy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7FUMBLE
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:5973% → 73%
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
73.0%
Maquel Haywood run for 12 yds to the Navy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
73.1%
Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
72.7%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the Navy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 8MISSED FG
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2429% → 29%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
70.9%
Nolan Henderson pass complete to Marcus Yarns for 3 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+1
70.9%
Nolan Henderson pass complete to Jourdan Townsend for 1 yd to the Navy 24Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 24
-3
70.1%
Nolan Henderson sacked by Jacob Busic for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 27Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 11
OPP 27
+44
70.9%
Brandon Ratcliffe 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9FUMBLE
7 plays · 40 yds · 3:0472% → 72%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
72.1%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 4 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+14
72.1%
Tai Lavatai run for 14 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
72.7%
Maquel Haywood run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 5
50
+2
73.1%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 2 yds to the Delaw 48Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+4
73.1%
Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the Delaw 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
73.2%
Vincent Terrell Ii run for 2 yds to the Delaw 42Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+9
71.5%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 9 yds to the Delaw 33 Anton Hall Jr. fumbled, forced by Johnny Buchanan, recovered by Delaw Liam TrainerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 10DOWNS
15 plays · 61 yds · 4:1831% → 38%
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
68.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Henderson,Nolan pass incomplete short middle to Pitts,Thyrick PENALTY Navy Pass Interference (Lane,Rayuan) 15 yards from Del33 to Del48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
67.8%
Kyron Cumby run for 1 yd to the Delaw 47Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+13
68.1%
Nolan Henderson pass complete to Chandler Harvin for 13 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
67.3%
Nolan Henderson pass complete to Chandler Harvin for 5 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+1
67.1%
Kyron Cumby run for 1 yd to the Navy 34Similar
Q2 11:52
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+5
67.3%
Khory Spruill run for 5 yds to the Navy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
67.2%
Nolan Henderson pass complete to Thyrick Pitts for 7 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+10
67.2%
Nolan Henderson run for 10 yds to the Navy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
67.2%
Nolan Henderson run for 4 yds to the Navy 8Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+6
67.2%
Nolan Henderson pass complete to Michael Jackson for 6 yds to the Navy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
67.2%
Nolan Henderson pass incomplete to Michael JacksonSimilar
Q2 11:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
67.2%
Nolan Henderson pass incomplete to Luke FrederickSimilar
Q2 11:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
67.5%
DELAWARE Penalty, Illegal Formation (Joe Zubillaga) declinedSimilar
Q2 7:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+4
61.8%
Nolan Henderson run for 4 yds to the Navy 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11DOWNS
5 plays · 52 yds · 1:5665% → 65%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+43
64.5%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Maquel Haywood for 43 yds to the Navy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
66.8%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 9
50
+4
66.9%
Logan Point run for 4 yds to the Delaw 46Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+3
67.0%
Logan Point run for 3 yds to the Delaw 43Similar
Q2 5:38
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+1
65.0%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Delaw 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 12FUMBLE
9 plays · 38 yds · 3:3440% → 48%
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
59.8%
Quincy Watson run for no gain to the Delaw 42Similar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+21
60.3%
Nolan Henderson pass complete to Braden Brose for 21 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
58.8%
Quincy Watson run for 2 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
58.6%
Nolan Henderson pass incomplete to Michael JacksonSimilar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+5
58.9%
Nolan Henderson run for 5 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q2 3:25
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+7
56.8%
Nolan Henderson pass complete to Thyrick Pitts for 7 yds to the Navy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
54.3%
Nolan Henderson pass complete to Michael Jackson for 1 yd to the Navy 22Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+2
52.1%
James Collins run for 2 yds to the Navy 20 James Collins fumbled, forced by Colin Ramos, recovered by Delaw Donald BerniardjrSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13END OF HALF
10 plays · 71 yds · 2:0460% → 58%
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
59.5%
Logan Point run for 2 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+6
59.5%
Logan Point run for 6 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+5
59.4%
Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the Navy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
60.0%
Maquel Haywood run for 2 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 12
OWN 31
0
59.5%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Mark WalkerSimilar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 12
OWN 31
+15
58.7%
DELAWARE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Delaw 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
62.7%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Kai Puailoa-RojasSimilar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
62.3%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Kai Puailoa-RojasSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+37
57.6%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Mark Walker for 37 yds to the Delaw 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:4146% → 44%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-6
54.4%
Nolan Henderson sacked by Jacob Busic for a loss of 6 yards to the Delaw 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 23
+2
55.5%
Nolan Henderson pass complete to Michael Jackson for 2 yds to the Delaw 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 25
0
56.3%
Nolan Henderson pass incomplete to Brett BuckmanSimilar
Q3 13:19
4TH & 14
OWN 25
0
55.6%
Ben Dinkel punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -13 yds · 2:0656% → 51%
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
55.6%
Tai Lavatai run for 11 yds to the Navy 15Similar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 21
OWN 15
+1
55.0%
Logan Point run for 1 yd to the Navy 16Similar
Q3 13:19
3RD & 20
OWN 16
+2
53.7%
Logan Point run for 2 yds to the Navy 18Similar
Q3 11:25
4TH & 18
OWN 18
-5
50.9%
Riethman,Riley punt 52 yards to the Del30 Townsend,Jourdan return for loss of 1 yard to the Del29 (Lane,Rayuan) PENALTY Navy Illegal Formation 5 yards from Navy18 to Navy13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:13
4TH & 23
OWN 13
+5
50.6%
Riley Riethman punt for 52 yds , Jourdan Townsend returns for 5 yds to the Delaw 40Similar
Q3 11:13
4TH & 23
OWN 13
+4
50.6%
Riley Riethman punt for 52 yds , Jourdan Townsend returns for 4 yds to the Delaw 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:5849% → 49%
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
51.2%
Quincy Watson run for 9 yds to the Delaw 33Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+10
49.7%
Nolan Henderson pass complete to Jourdan Townsend for 10 yds to the Delaw 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
48.7%
Quincy Watson run for 1 yd to the Delaw 44Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
48.7%
Nolan Henderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:13
3RD & 9
OWN 44
-3
49.6%
Nolan Henderson sacked by Tyler Fletcher for a loss of 3 yards to the Delaw 41Similar
Q3 9:15
4TH & 12
OWN 41
0
50.6%
Ben Dinkel punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3352% → 49%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
52.1%
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the Navy 38Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
52.3%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Kai Puailoa-RojasSimilar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+3
51.2%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q3 7:42
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
49.1%
Riley Riethman punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 18TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 3:1253% → 78%
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
46.8%
Khory Spruill run for 1 yd to the Delaw 23Similar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+15
47.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Henderson,Nolan pass incomplete short left to Pitts,Thyrick PENALTY Navy Roughing The Passer (Ramos,Colin) 15 yards from Del23 to Del38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
44.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Henderson,Nolan rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Del44 (Gibbons,Eavan) PENALTY Del Holding (Gingrich,Brock) 10 yards from Del38 to Del28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:42
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+5
46.8%
PENALTY Navy Disconcerting Signals 5 yards from Del28 to Del33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:42
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+8
46.8%
Nolan Henderson pass complete to Michael Jackson for 8 yds to the Delaw 41Similar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+3
44.1%
Nolan Henderson run for 3 yds to the Delaw 44Similar
Q3 7:42
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+5
44.4%
Nolan Henderson run for 5 yds to the Delaw 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
22.3%
Nolan Henderson pass complete to Chandler Harvin for 51 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ratcliffe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19TD
11 plays · 56 yds · 3:5529% → 47%
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
29.2%
Logan Point run for 4 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+7
29.3%
Tai Lavatai run for 7 yds to the Delaw 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
29.9%
Daba Fofana run for 6 yds to the Delaw 39Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+13
30.3%
Daba Fofana run for 13 yds to the Delaw 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
30.9%
Maquel Haywood run for 3 yds to the Delaw 23Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+7
30.9%
Daba Fofana run for 7 yds to the Delaw 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
30.8%
Daba Fofana run for no gain to the Delaw 16Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+12
30.8%
Tai Lavatai run for 12 yds to the Delaw 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
30.8%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the Delaw 2Similar
Q3 0:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
47.2%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds for a TD, (Evan Warren KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · -2 yds · 1:2463% → 64%
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
37.4%
Nolan Henderson pass complete to Bryce De Maille for no gain to the Delaw 25Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
36.9%
Quincy Watson run for no gain to the Delaw 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
38.0%
PENALTY Navy Offside (Woodson-Brooks,Jianni) 5 yards from Del25 to Del30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
36.1%
Quincy Watson run for 3 yds to the Delaw 33Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-5
37.0%
PENALTY Del Illegal Substitution 5 yards from Del33 to Del28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
-5
38.9%
PENALTY Del False Start (Buchanan,Johnny) 5 yards from Del28 to Del23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:05
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
36.1%
Ben Dinkel punt for 63 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4238% → 32%
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
37.6%
Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the Navy 18Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+5
37.8%
Daba Fofana run for 5 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+1
37.3%
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the Navy 22Similar
Q4 12:23
4TH & 2
OWN 22
0
31.6%
Riley Riethman punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jourdan Townsend at the Delaw 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 22DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:4572% → 71%
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
28.2%
Nolan Henderson pass incomplete to Chandler HarvinSimilar
Q4 12:23
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
28.5%
Nolan Henderson pass incomplete to Chandler HarvinSimilar
Q4 12:23
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+8
30.2%
Nolan Henderson pass complete to Bryce De Maille for 8 yds to the Delaw 45Similar
Q4 11:38
4TH & 2
OWN 45
+1
28.8%
Khory Spruill run for 1 yd to the Delaw 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4040% → 34%
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
40.0%
Daba Fofana run for 6 yds to the Delaw 40Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 4
OPP 40
0
40.0%
Daba Fofana run for no gain to the Delaw 40Similar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+1
39.3%
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the Delaw 39Similar
Q4 9:58
4TH & 3
OPP 39
+2
33.7%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the Delaw 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:4077% → 74%
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
23.1%
Nolan Henderson pass complete to Jourdan Townsend for 2 yds to the Delaw 39Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
22.1%
Nolan Henderson pass incomplete to Michael JacksonSimilar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 8
OWN 39
-9
22.7%
Nolan Henderson sacked by John Marshall for a loss of 9 yards to the Delaw 30Similar
Q4 8:18
4TH & 17
OWN 30
0
26.1%
Ben Dinkel punt for 49 yds , Amin Hassan returns for no gain to the Navy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:3129% → 22%
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
28.9%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Jayden UmbargerSimilar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+17
28.7%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 17 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
29.9%
Tai Lavatai run for no gain to the Navy 35Similar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
29.5%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Navy 36Similar
Q4 8:18
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+1
28.8%
Maquel Haywood run for 1 yd to the Navy 37Similar
Q4 5:47
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
21.8%
Riley Riethman punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jourdan Townsend at the Delaw 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 2:3182% → 85%
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
18.4%
Khory Spruill run for 4 yds to the Delaw 17Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+4
18.6%
Khory Spruill run for 4 yds to the Delaw 13Similar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 10
OWN 13
+3
19.6%
Nolan Henderson pass complete to Jourdan Townsend for 3 yds to the Delaw 10Similar
Q4 3:16
4TH & 13
OWN 10
+6
14.9%
Ben Dinkel punt for 45 yds , Amin Hassan returns for 6 yds to the Delaw 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 27DOWNS
8 plays · 40 yds · 1:5828% → 21%
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
27.5%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Mark WalkerSimilar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+34
26.4%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Maquel Haywood for 34 yds to the Delaw 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
30.7%
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the Delaw 14Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+1
30.7%
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the Delaw 13Similar
Q4 1:32
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+4
24.0%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Mark Walker for 4 yds to the Delaw 9Similar
Q4 1:18
4TH & 4
OPP 9
0
21.2%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Maquel HaywoodSimilar
Q4 1:18
4TH & 4
OPP 9
0
21.2%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Maquel HaywoodSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 1:1894% → 95%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
6.3%
Nolan Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Delaw 8Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 8
-1
5.3%
Nolan Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Delaw 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:30
Nolan Henderson pass complete to Chandler Harvin for 51 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ratcliffe KICK)
-22.1
TD · Q3 0:29
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds for a TD, (Evan Warren KICK)
+16.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:18
Nolan Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Delaw 8
-14.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com