Try the model
NEV

Nevada 22 at UNLV 27

UNLV
2022 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2022 · Allegiant Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q3Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:54 · Nate Cox pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 9 yds to the UNLV 31 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q3Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4Play 205Pregame prior+2.4Home team on offense+12.9Garbage-time factor+4.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.8Score differential−0.1Blowout margin+1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:45: Nate Cox pass complete to BJ Casteel for 75 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +3.3 pts (now 25%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:32: Harrison Bailey pass complete to Kyle Williams for 49 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK) — UNLV win probability +4.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:45: Harrison Bailey pass complete to Nick Williams for 30 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK) — UNLV win probability +14.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:28: Toa Taua run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — NEV win probability +22.1 pts (now 32%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:00: Nate Cox sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 40 — NEV win probability +82.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 9 of 10NEV made the numbers' call on 11 of 13
  1. Q1 13:32UNLV 4th & 8 at UNLV 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:04NEV 4th & 7 at UNLV 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    20.4%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:34UNLV 4th & 3 at UNLV 25, down 3
    Close callPunted · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:59NEV 4th & 6 at UNLV 8, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    21.8%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:01UNLV 4th & 5 at UNLV 30, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:05UNLV 4th & 5 at UNLV 43, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.7%
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:00NEV 4th & 1 at UNLV 45, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    26.9%−1.4
    25% to make
    Punt
    27.4%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:11NEV 4th & 7 at NEV 20, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:36NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 28, down 1
    Close callPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:01UNLV 4th & 24 at UNLV 11, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−2.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:31NEV 4th & 16 at midfield, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−0.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:20UNLV 4th & 6 at NEV 15, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    69.9%−4.1
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:13NEV 4th & 10 at NEV 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 13:49NEV 4th & 16 at NEV 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−1.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 10:36NEV 4th & 1 at UNLV 22, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.9%−1.8
    72% to make
    Punt
    19.7%−7.0
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:51UNLV 4th & 9 at UNLV 42, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%−2.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%
    average punt
  17. Q3 1:52UNLV 4th & 14 at UNLV 45, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−4.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.2%
    average punt
  18. Q3 0:55NEV 4th & 5 at NEV 11, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−2.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 13:30UNLV 4th & 17 at NEV 23, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−4.5
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    54.6%−12.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:53NEV 4th & 5 at UNLV 40, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    5.6%−0.9
    34% to make
    Punt
    5.6%−0.9
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:05UNLV 4th & 6 at UNLV 29, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.6%
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:07NEV 4th & 1 at UNLV 5, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.9%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    10.5%−15.4
    92% to make
    Punt
    8.9%−16.9
    average punt
  23. Q4 3:54NEV 4th & 5 at UNLV 40, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    17.8%−3.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    15.6%−5.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNLV made the numbers' call on 1 of 2NEV made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 5:45NEV Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:32UNLV Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 6:45UNLV Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:28NEV Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    12.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    12.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNLVDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:2882% → 82%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
82.4%
Aidan Robbins run for 3 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
82.4%
Doug Brumfield sacked by Tyson Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
82.4%
Doug Brumfield pass incomplete to Ricky WhiteSimilar
Q1 13:32
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
81.9%
Marshall Nichols punt blocked by Marquese Allen-Patmon blocked by Marquese Allen-Patmon , Marquese Allen-Patmon returns for no gain to the UNLV 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2FG
6 plays · 10 yds · 2:2818% → 19%
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
81.9%
Jamaal Bell run for 8 yds to the UNLV 9Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+3
81.9%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the UNLV 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
81.9%
Nate Cox pass complete to Toa Taua for 4 yds to the UNLV 10Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
81.9%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Toa TauaSimilar
Q1 13:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
81.9%
Nate Cox pass complete to BJ Casteel for 3 yds to the UNLV 7Similar
Q1 11:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
81.0%
Brandon Talton 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2381% → 80%
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
81.0%
Aidan Robbins run for 2 yds to the UNLV 20Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 8
OWN 20
0
81.0%
Doug Brumfield pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+5
80.9%
Doug Brumfield run for 5 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q1 9:34
4TH & 3
OWN 25
+34
80.3%
Marshall Nichols punt for 46 yds , Bentlee Sanders returns for 34 yds to the UNLV 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4FG
6 plays · 29 yds · 2:3520% → 21%
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
80.3%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to BJ CasteelSimilar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+25
80.3%
Toa Taua run for 25 yds to the UNLV 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
80.2%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the UNLV 12Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+5
80.2%
Nate Cox pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 5 yds to the UNLV 7Similar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+1
80.3%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the UNLV 8Similar
Q1 6:59
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+26
78.7%
Brandon Talton 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5879% → 78%
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.9%
Harrison Bailey pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
78.9%
Aidan Robbins run for 5 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
78.8%
UNLV Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 6:01
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
77.9%
Marshall Nichols punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nevad 25 , Bentlee Sanders returns for no gain to the Nevad 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:1622% → 25%
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.4%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Dalevon CampbellSimilar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+75
75.1%
Nate Cox pass complete to BJ Casteel for 75 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3676% → 75%
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
76.3%
Aidan Robbins run for 1 yd to the UNLV 39Similar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+4
76.3%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Kyle Williams for 4 yds to the UNLV 43Similar
Q1 5:41
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
76.2%
Harrison Bailey pass incomplete to Jeff WeimerSimilar
Q1 4:05
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
74.8%
Marshall Nichols punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8FUMBLE RETURN TD
10 plays · 49 yds · 4:0526% → 26%
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+13
73.8%
Nate Cox pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 13 yds to the Nevad 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
73.6%
Nate Cox run for 7 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+8
73.5%
Toa Taua run for 8 yds to the Nevad 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
73.5%
PENALTY UNR False Start (Grabowski,Josh) 5 yards from UNR34 to UNR29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 15
OWN 29
+7
73.6%
Nate Cox run for 7 yds to the Nevad 36Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+10
73.4%
Toa Taua run for 10 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
73.1%
Nate Cox pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 6 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 4
OPP 48
0
73.1%
Nate Cox pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for no gain to the UNLV 48Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+3
73.3%
Nate Cox pass complete to BJ Casteel for 3 yds to the UNLV 45Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+55
73.9%
Johnathan Baldwin 55 Yd Fumble Return (Daniel Gutierrez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:4326% → 27%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
74.5%
Nate Cox pass complete to BJ Casteel for 2 yds to the Nevad 9Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+7
74.6%
Nate Cox pass complete to BJ Casteel for 7 yds to the Nevad 16Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+1
74.6%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
74.3%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 19Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+1
74.3%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 20Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 7
OWN 20
0
74.7%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to BJ CasteelSimilar
Q2 12:11
4TH & 7
OWN 20
+4
72.8%
Matt Freem punt for 39 yds , Jeff Weimer returns for 4 yds to the UNLV 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 10TD
3 plays · 55 yds · 0:3974% → 79%
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
73.5%
Aidan Robbins run for 6 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 4
OPP 49
0
74.0%
Harrison Bailey pass incomplete to Ricky WhiteSimilar
Q2 11:32
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+49
78.6%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Kyle Williams for 49 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5223% → 22%
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
77.5%
Nate Cox sacked by BJ Harris for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 18Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+6
77.8%
Nate Cox pass complete to Toa Taua for 6 yds to the Nevad 24Similar
Q2 11:28
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+4
78.0%
Nate Cox pass complete to Dyson Frank for 4 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q2 9:36
4TH & 1
OWN 28
0
77.6%
Matt Freem punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jeff Weimer at the UNLV 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -14 yds · 2:3577% → 76%
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
77.2%
Shotgun Robbins,Aidan rush right for 0 yards to the UNLV25 (Mack,Tyriq) PENALTY UNLV Holding (Trigg-Wright,Amani) 10 yards from UNLV25 to UNLV15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 20
OWN 15
-5
77.1%
PENALTY UNLV Delay Of Game 5 yards from UNLV15 to UNLV10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 25
OWN 10
+9
77.1%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Nick Williams for 9 yds to the UNLV 19Similar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+4
77.0%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Ricky White for 4 yds to the UNLV 15Similar
Q2 9:36
3RD & 20
OWN 15
-4
76.4%
Harrison Bailey sacked by Eli'jah Winston for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 11Similar
Q2 7:01
4TH & 24
OWN 11
0
75.7%
Marshall Nichols punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Bentlee Sanders at the Nevad 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 7 yds · 3:3025% → 24%
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
75.0%
Nate Cox run for 6 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+3
74.6%
Nate Cox run for 3 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q2 7:01
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+4
74.7%
Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the UNLV 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
74.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Cox,Nate pass complete deep right to Casteel,BJ for 16 yards to the UNLV28, out of bounds at UNLV28 PENALTY UNR Holding (World,Isaiah) 10 yards from UNLV44 to UNR46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 20
OWN 46
+3
75.7%
Nate Cox pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 3 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 17
OWN 49
+1
75.7%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 16
50
0
75.2%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Jamaal BellSimilar
Q2 3:31
4TH & 16
50
0
76.1%
Matt Freem punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jeff Weimer at the UNLV 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 14FG
11 plays · 77 yds · 2:1177% → 78%
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+9
76.6%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Kyle Williams for 9 yds to the UNLV 17Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 1
OWN 17
+26
77.0%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Nick Williams for 26 yds to the UNLV 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
78.3%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Nick Williams for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 3
50
+31
77.6%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Aidan Robbins for 16 yds to the NEVADA 34 for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Eli'jah Winston) to the Nevad 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
78.2%
Harrison Bailey sacked by Dom Peterson for a loss of 5 yards to the Nevad 24Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 15
OPP 24
+9
77.2%
Aidan Robbins run for 9 yds to the Nevad 15Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 6
OPP 15
0
77.3%
Harrison Bailey pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+33
78.2%
Daniel Gutierrez 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:5921% → 20%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
78.8%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+3
78.8%
Nate Cox pass complete to Toa Taua for 3 yds to the Nevad 36Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 5
OWN 36
-5
79.1%
PENALTY UNR False Start 5 yards from UNR36 to UNR31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
80.0%
NEVADA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dom Peterson) declinedSimilar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 10
OWN 31
0
80.2%
Matt Freem punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jeff Weimer at the UNLV 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
77.5%
Kneel down by UNLV at UNLV25 for loss of 1 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 1:1125% → 23%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
75.4%
NEVADA Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the Nevad 22Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 23
OWN 22
0
76.1%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Jamaal BellSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 23
OWN 22
+7
76.3%
Toa Taua run for 7 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 29
0
77.1%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Spencer CurtisSimilar
Q3 13:49
4TH & 16
OWN 29
+9
77.4%
Matt Freem punt for 41 yds , Jeff Weimer returns for 9 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 18INT
3 plays · 11 yds · 1:1977% → 78%
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
77.1%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Jeff Weimer for 7 yds to the UNLV 46Similar
Q3 13:49
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+4
78.0%
Aidan Robbins run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
50
0
77.7%
Harrison Bailey pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19FG
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5429% → 29%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
71.3%
Toa Taua run for 5 yds to the UNLV 26Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+3
71.0%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the UNLV 23Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+1
72.1%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the UNLV 22Similar
Q3 10:36
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+40
71.1%
Brandon Talton 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 2 yds · 3:4573% → 71%
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
73.4%
Aidan Robbins run for 4 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
73.6%
Aidan Robbins run for no gain to the UNLV 29Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+12
72.6%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Nick Williams for 12 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
75.0%
Aidan Robbins run for 1 yd to the UNLV 40Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 11
OWN 40
0
74.0%
Harrison Bailey pass incomplete to Aidan RobbinsSimilar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+7
72.8%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Aidan Robbins for 7 yds to the UNLV 47Similar
Q3 10:36
4TH & 4
OWN 47
-5
73.7%
PENALTY UNLV False Start (O'Dell,Tyray) 5 yards from UNLV47 to UNLV42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:51
4TH & 9
OWN 42
0
70.9%
Marshall Nichols punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Bentlee Sanders at the Nevad 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21INT
5 plays · 36 yds · 2:1228% → 33%
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
71.6%
Nate Cox pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 7 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-2
69.7%
Nate Cox sacked by Fred Thompkins for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 30Similar
Q3 6:51
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
71.9%
Nate Cox pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 8 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+23
70.0%
Nate Cox pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 23 yds to the UNLV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
66.8%
Nate Cox pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 2:4774% → 68%
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
74.3%
Aidan Robbins run for 5 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 15
OWN 44
0
72.0%
Harrison Bailey sacked by Dion Washington for 0 yards to the UNLV 44Similar
Q3 4:39
3RD & 15
OWN 44
-10
70.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bailey,Harrison pass complete deep right to White,Ricky for 22 yards to the UNR34 (Sanders,Bentlee) PENALTY UNLV Holding (Shanks,Tiger) 10 yards from UNLV44 to UNLV34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:39
3RD & 25
OWN 34
+11
69.6%
Aidan Robbins run for 11 yds to the UNLV 45Similar
Q3 1:52
4TH & 14
OWN 45
0
68.2%
Marshall Nichols punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5730% → 28%
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
70.2%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Jamaal BellSimilar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+5
70.6%
Nate Cox run for 5 yds to the Nevad 11Similar
Q3 1:52
3RD & 5
OWN 11
0
71.5%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Dyson FrankSimilar
Q3 0:55
4TH & 5
OWN 11
+2
72.2%
Matt Freem punt for 42 yds , Jeff Weimer returns for 2 yds to the UNLV 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 24FG
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:2573% → 74%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
73.4%
Harrison Bailey pass incomplete to Nick WilliamsSimilar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
72.6%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Aidan Robbins for 4 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+31
72.7%
Aidan Robbins run for 31 yds to the Nevad 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
74.7%
Aidan Robbins run for 1 yd to the Nevad 15Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 15
0
74.7%
Harrison Bailey pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 15
-8
73.2%
Harrison Bailey sacked by Naki Mateialona for a loss of 8 yards to the Nevad 23Similar
Q4 13:30
4TH & 17
OPP 23
+43
74.2%
Daniel Gutierrez 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 25INT
10 plays · 46 yds · 3:1127% → 32%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
73.5%
Toa Taua run for 11 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
72.2%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 37Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
72.4%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Spencer CurtisSimilar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+16
74.0%
Nate Cox pass complete to Dyson Frank for 16 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
68.9%
Toa Taua run for 5 yds to the UNLV 42Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+9
68.4%
Toa Taua run for 9 yds to the UNLV 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
67.4%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Dalevon CampbellSimilar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+4
67.6%
Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 6
OPP 29
0
68.2%
Nate Cox pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 26TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 8:1579% → 94%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
78.7%
Aidan Robbins run for a loss of 5 yards to the UNLV 44Similar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
75.6%
Aidan Robbins run for 7 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
77.2%
Aidan Robbins run for 1 yd to the UNLV 33Similar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
75.8%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Jeff Weimer for 8 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
77.8%
Harrison Bailey pass incomplete to Jeff WeimerSimilar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
76.7%
UNLV Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+11
75.3%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Senika McKie for 11 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
78.9%
Aidan Robbins run for 4 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+14
79.0%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Kyle Williams for 14 yds to the Nevad 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
93.8%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Nick Williams for 30 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 27TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:177% → 32%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
92.7%
Toa Taua run for 17 yds to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
91.3%
Nate Cox run for 7 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+6
90.5%
Toa Taua run for 6 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
90.8%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the UNLV 44Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+6
90.7%
Toa Taua run for 6 yds to the UNLV 38Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 3
OPP 38
-2
90.6%
Nate Cox sacked by Adam Plant Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 40Similar
Q4 3:53
4TH & 5
OPP 40
+9
92.1%
Nate Cox pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 9 yds to the UNLV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+28
90.6%
Nate Cox pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 28 yds to the UNLV 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
90.2%
Nate Cox run for no gain to the UNLV 3Similar
Q4 3:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
90.2%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the UNLV 1Similar
Q4 2:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.1%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 28PUNT
9 plays · 4 yds · 12:5580% → 93%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
80.4%
Aidan Robbins run for 1 yd to the Nevad 15Similar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.3%
Aidan Robbins run for 2 yds to the UNLV 27Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
90.2%
Aidan Robbins run for 3 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+1
91.4%
Aidan Robbins run for 1 yd to the UNLV 29Similar
Q4 2:05
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+2
92.6%
Marshall Nichols punt for 44 yds , Bentlee Sanders returns for 2 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 29DOWNS
15 plays · 66 yds · 13:2318% → 15%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
82.2%
Toa Taua run for 11 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
92.1%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 8
OWN 31
0
92.0%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Jamaal BellSimilar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+13
93.0%
Nate Cox pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 13 yds to the Nevad 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
91.1%
Toa Taua pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+16
91.8%
Nate Cox pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 16 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
89.4%
Toa Taua run for 7 yds to the UNLV 33Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+8
80.2%
Nate Cox pass complete to Toa Taua for 8 yds to the UNLV 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
80.0%
Nate Cox pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 11 yds to the UNLV 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
79.9%
Nate Cox pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 8 yds to the UNLV 6Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+1
79.1%
Nate Cox pass complete to Toa Taua for 1 yd to the UNLV 5Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 1
OPP 5
0
82.5%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Jamaal BellSimilar
Q4 0:07
4TH & 1
OPP 5
0
85.2%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Jamaal BellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 30DOWNS
1 play · 66 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
92.0%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 31END OF GAME
9 plays · -4 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
94.5%
Aidan Robbins run for 7 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
94.8%
Aidan Robbins run for 1 yd to the UNLV 33Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
95.0%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Jeff Weimer for 8 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
94.9%
pass incomplete to Jeff WeimerSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
94.9%
pass incomplete to Senika McKie UNLV Penalty, Offensive holding (Daviyon McDaniel) to the UNLV 41Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+11
94.8%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Senika McKie for 11 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
95.2%
Aidan Robbins run for 4 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+14
95.2%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Kyle Williams for 14 yds to the Nevad 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-4
94.5%
Kneel down by UNLV at UNLV01 for loss of 4 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 32TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:5411% → 95%
Q4 3:54
4TH & 5
OPP 40
+9
89.5%
Nate Cox pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 9 yds to the UNLV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+28
86.3%
Nate Cox pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 28 yds to the UNLV 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
86.5%
Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
86.9%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the UNLV 1Similar
Q4 2:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
86.4%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Dalevon Campbell, broken up by Jordyn MorganSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
90.9%
Toa Taua run for 17 yds to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
89.4%
Nate Cox run for 7 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+6
86.9%
Toa Taua run for 6 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
87.4%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the UNLV 44Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+6
87.7%
Toa Taua run for 6 yds to the UNLV 38Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 38
-2
5.2%
Nate Cox sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+94.8
TD · Q4 0:00
Nate Cox sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 40
-82.5
TD · Q4 2:28
Toa Taua run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-22.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com