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UNM

New Mexico 0 at Colorado State 17

CSU
2022 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2022 · Canvas Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreUNM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:55 · Aaron Rodriguez punt for 48 yds , Tory Horton returns for 7 yds to the ColSt 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 4Pregame prior+19.7Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:34: Clay Millen pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 21 yds for a TD, (Michael Boyle KICK) — CSU win probability +7.8 pts (now 77%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 11:07: Christian Washington run for 6 yds to the NMex 42 — UNM win probability +4.3 pts (now 26%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:55: Avery Morrow run for 3 yds to the NMex 15 — CSU win probability +4.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  4. PUNT · Q4 10:27: Aaron Rodriguez punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Tory Horton at the ColSt 25 — CSU win probability +4.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:04: Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 41 yds for a TD, (Michael Boyle KICK) — CSU win probability +10.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9UNM made the numbers' call on 9 of 13
  1. Q1 12:55UNM 4th & 20 at UNM 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:32CSU 4th & 7 at UNM 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    68.6%−0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:07UNM 4th & 5 at UNM 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:34CSU 4th & 11 at CSU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:06UNM 4th & 12 at CSU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    33.3%−0.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:55CSU 4th & 27 at CSU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−1.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:07UNM 4th & 3 at CSU 37, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    35.3%−1.0
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:49CSU 4th & 1 at CSU 29, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.7%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:56UNM 4th & 10 at UNM 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−1.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:46UNM 4th & 5 at UNM 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:19CSU 4th & 13 at CSU 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%−2.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.5%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:00UNM 4th & 6 at CSU 29, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.0%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    21.8%−5.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:14UNM 4th & 10 at UNM 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:26CSU 4th & 1 at CSU 23, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.0%−1.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:06CSU 4th & 5 at UNM 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.7%
    92% to make
    Punt
    74.5%−9.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:43UNM 4th & 19 at UNM 16, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−2.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:19CSU 4th & 12 at UNM 44, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%−0.8
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    85.2%−1.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:27UNM 4th & 2 at UNM 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:09UNM 4th & 8 at UNM 42, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.2%
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:37CSU 4th & 6 at UNM 38, up 17
    Close callPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    98.0%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%−0.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:37UNM 4th & 5 at UNM 14, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.7%
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:23UNM 4th & 5 at UNM 24, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.3%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 3:34CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 6:04CSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 2:0530% → 30%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.4%
CJ Montes pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 5 yds to the NMex 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
70.4%
CJ Montes run for a loss of 5 yards to the NMex 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-10
70.4%
CJ Montes sacked by Jack Howell and Chase Wilson for a loss of 10 yards to the NMex 15Similar
Q1 12:55
4TH & 20
OWN 15
+7
70.3%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 48 yds , Tory Horton returns for 7 yds to the ColSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:2370% → 70%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
70.3%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tanner Arkin for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 4
50
0
70.3%
Avery Morrow run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 4
50
+10
70.3%
Clay Millen pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 10 yds to the NMex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
70.4%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the NMex 38Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 8
OPP 38
-1
70.4%
Clay Millen pass complete to Avery Morrow for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 39Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+2
70.3%
Clay Millen pass complete to Jaylen Thomas for 2 yds to the NMex 37Similar
Q1 9:32
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
69.7%
Paddy Turner punt for 33 yds, downed at the NMex 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:2530% → 31%
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+5
69.6%
Christian Washington run for 5 yds to the NMex 9Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 5
OWN 9
+7
69.6%
Nathaniel Jones run for 7 yds to the NMex 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
69.5%
Christian Washington run for 1 yd to the NMex 17Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+4
69.5%
CJ Montes pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 4 yds to the NMex 21Similar
Q1 9:32
3RD & 5
OWN 21
0
69.7%
CJ Montes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:07
4TH & 5
OWN 21
0
69.4%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tory Horton at the ColSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:3369% → 68%
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
69.1%
Avery Morrow run for 9 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 1
OWN 43
-8
69.7%
Clay Millen sacked by Omar Darame and Bryce Santana for a loss of 8 yards to the ColSt 35Similar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+8
68.8%
Clay Millen run for 8 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q1 7:07
4TH & 1
OWN 43
-10
69.2%
MORROW, Avery rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the CSU45 (HAULCY, A.J.;DARAME, Omar). PENALTY CSU Holding on GARDNER, Jacob enforced 10 yards from the CSU43 to the CSU33 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:34
4TH & 11
OWN 33
0
67.9%
Paddy Turner punt for 47 yds, downed at the NMex 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5PUNT
12 plays · 35 yds · 5:2832% → 33%
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
68.5%
Sherod White run for 4 yds to the NMex 24Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+7
68.4%
Andrew Erickson run for 7 yds to the NMex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
68.3%
Christian Washington run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 28Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+9
68.5%
Sherod White run for 9 yds to the NMex 37Similar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+4
68.2%
CJ Montes pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 4 yds to the NMex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
67.8%
Christian Washington run for 4 yds to the NMex 45Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+12
67.7%
Christian Washington run for 12 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
65.7%
Sherod White run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+4
65.9%
Christian Washington run for 4 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 40
0
65.9%
CJ Montes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 40
-5
66.7%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Delay Of Game (A.J. Odums) to the ColSt 45Similar
Q2 14:06
4TH & 12
OPP 45
0
67.3%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 3:1168% → 66%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
67.8%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 9 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+4
68.6%
Avery Morrow run for 4 yds to the ColSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
68.0%
Avery Morrow run for no gain to the ColSt 33Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-11
67.9%
Clay Millen sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the ColSt 22Similar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 21
OWN 22
-6
67.0%
Clay Millen sacked by Omar Darame and Justin Harris for a loss of 6 yards to the ColSt 16Similar
Q2 10:55
4TH & 27
OWN 16
0
65.8%
Paddy Turner punt for 42 yds, downed at the NMex 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:4835% → 35%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
64.9%
Christian Washington run for 14 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
64.3%
Christian Washington run for 7 yds to the ColSt 37Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 3
OPP 37
0
64.1%
Sherod White run for no gain to the ColSt 37Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 3
OPP 37
0
64.3%
CJ Montes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:07
4TH & 3
OPP 37
0
64.7%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:1867% → 65%
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
67.1%
Avery Morrow run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 19Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+6
66.9%
Clay Millen run for 6 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
Q2 9:07
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+4
66.5%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 4 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q2 6:49
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
65.4%
Paddy Turner punt for 46 yds, downed at the NMex 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5336% → 35%
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.8%
Christian Washington run for no gain to the NMex 25Similar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
63.9%
CJ Montes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:49
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
64.7%
CJ Montes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:56
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
65.4%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Tory Horton at the ColSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:2266% → 77%
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
66.4%
Clay Millen pass complete to Avery Morrow for 4 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+27
66.6%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 27 yds to the NMex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
68.7%
Tory Horton pass complete to Clay Millen for 16 yds to the NMex 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
69.2%
Avery Morrow run for 7 yds to the NMex 21Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+21
77.0%
Clay Millen pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 21 yds for a TD, (Michael Boyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4826% → 25%
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
74.2%
Christian Washington run for 5 yds to the NMex 30Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
73.6%
CJ Montes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:34
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
74.4%
CJ Montes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:46
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+1
75.4%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 55 yds , Tory Horton returns for 1 yd to the ColSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2775% → 73%
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
75.0%
Clay Millen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+9
74.7%
Clay Millen run for 9 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 1
OWN 25
-10
74.4%
MORROW, Avery rush to the right for a gain of 10 yards to the CSU35 (HAULCY, A.J.). PENALTY CSU Chop Block on BIVENS, Dante enforced half the distance from the goal, 12 yards from the CSU25 to the CSU13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 13
OWN 13
0
74.0%
Clay Millen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:19
4TH & 13
OWN 13
0
73.2%
Paddy Turner punt for 37 yds , Luke Wysong returns for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13MISSED FG
8 plays · 21 yds · 1:1928% → 25%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
50
+7
71.9%
CJ Montes pass complete to Elijah Queen for 7 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+10
71.1%
CJ Montes pass complete to Elijah Queen for 10 yds to the ColSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
70.1%
CJ Montes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+6
70.2%
CJ Montes pass complete to Luke Wysong for 6 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 4
OPP 27
-2
73.5%
CJ Montes sacked by Brandon Guzman for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 29Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+46
75.1%
Luke Drzewiecki 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14FUMBLE
8 plays · 39 yds · 3:5376% → 79%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
75.6%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 8 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+10
76.6%
Avery Morrow run for 10 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
77.1%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+20
77.3%
Clay Millen pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 20 yds to the NMex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
77.7%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 8 yds to the NMex 27 NEW MEXICO Penalty, Offsides (Justin Harris) declinedSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+1
77.7%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the NMex 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 26
-15
76.9%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Dontae Keys) to the NMex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
78.6%
Avery Morrow run for 3 yds to the NMex 36 Avery Morrow fumbled, recovered by NMex Cody MoonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:5326% → 23%
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
74.3%
Christian Washington run for 6 yds to the NMex 42Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 4
OWN 42
-15
73.0%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Personal Foul (CJ James) to the NMex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
73.9%
Luke Wysong run for 3 yds to the NMex 43Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+2
73.2%
Christian Washington run for 2 yds to the NMex 45Similar
Q3 11:07
3RD & 5
OWN 45
-5
73.4%
CJ Montes run for a loss of 5 yards to the NMex 40Similar
Q3 8:14
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
76.9%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 58 yds, downed at the ColSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:4878% → 78%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
77.9%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the ColSt 3Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+11
77.7%
Avery Morrow run for 11 yds to the ColSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
78.0%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the ColSt 16Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 8
OWN 16
-5
78.0%
MILLEN, Clay scrambles up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the CSU21 (HARRIS, Justin). PENALTY CSU Holding on MIKI-HAN, George enforced half the distance from the goal, 8 yards from the CSU16 to the CSU8 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 16
OWN 8
+9
77.7%
Clay Millen pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 9 yds to the ColSt 17Similar
Q3 8:14
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+6
77.1%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 6 yds to the ColSt 23Similar
Q3 4:26
4TH & 1
OWN 23
0
77.9%
Paddy Turner punt for 47 yds , returns for no gain to the NMex 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17FUMBLE
4 plays · -11 yds · 1:3124% → 22%
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
76.3%
Christian Washington run for 4 yds to the NMex 33Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 6
OWN 33
-5
75.5%
CJ Montes sacked by Chase Wilson for a loss of 5 yards to the NMex 28Similar
Q3 2:55
3RD & 11
OWN 28
-10
78.1%
CJ Montes sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the NMex 18Similar
Q3 2:55
3RD & 11
OWN 28
-10
78.1%
CJ Montes sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the NMex 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18FG
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:4983% → 85%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
82.8%
Avery Morrow run for 3 yds to the NMex 15Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+12
82.8%
Clay Millen pass complete to Avery Morrow for 12 yds to the NMex 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
82.8%
Avery Morrow run for no gain to the NMex 3Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
82.8%
Tory Horton sacked by A.J. Odums for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 6Similar
Q3 0:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
84.9%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Offsides (Cody Moon) to the NMex 3Similar
Q3 0:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
84.4%
Avery Morrow run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 5Similar
Q3 0:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
85.2%
Michael Boyle 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:1715% → 13%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
85.1%
Nathaniel Jones run for 3 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
84.1%
Luke Wysong run for a loss of 5 yards to the NMex 23Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-7
86.2%
CJ Montes sacked by Chase Wilson for a loss of 7 yards to the NMex 16Similar
Q4 13:43
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
87.1%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Tory Horton at the ColSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:2485% → 85%
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+23
85.3%
Avery Morrow run for 8 yds to the NMex 43 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO Penalty, Personal Foul (Ray Leutele) to the NMex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
86.9%
Avery Morrow run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 44Similar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 12
OPP 44
0
86.5%
Clay Millen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:43
3RD & 12
OPP 44
0
85.9%
Clay Millen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:19
4TH & 12
OPP 44
0
85.3%
Paddy Turner punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5214% → 11%
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
85.9%
Christian Washington run for 4 yds to the NMex 19Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+5
85.9%
Christian Washington run for 5 yds to the NMex 24Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 1
OWN 24
-1
85.0%
Christian Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 23Similar
Q4 10:27
4TH & 2
OWN 23
0
89.3%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Tory Horton at the ColSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:2386% → 98%
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
86.2%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 9 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
86.7%
Avery Morrow run for 3 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
86.9%
Avery Morrow run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 35Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 12
OWN 35
0
86.0%
Clay Millen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:27
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+16
85.4%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 16 yds to the NMex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
87.9%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 9 yds to the ColSt 40 COLORADO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Louis Brown) to the ColSt 44Similar
Q4 10:27
1ST & 17
OWN 44
+7
87.4%
Jaylen Thomas run for 7 yds to the NMex 49Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+8
87.6%
Clay Millen run for 8 yds to the NMex 41Similar
Q4 6:04
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+41
97.8%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 41 yds for a TD, (Michael Boyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:553% → 2%
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.8%
CJ Montes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
96.8%
CJ Montes pass complete to Duece Jones for 9 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q4 6:04
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
96.5%
Christian Washington run for 6 yds to the NMex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
96.5%
CJ Montes pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 2 yds to the NMex 42Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
96.5%
CJ Montes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:04
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
96.6%
CJ Montes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:09
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
97.7%
CJ Montes pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3298% → 98%
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
98.3%
Jaylen Thomas run for 5 yds to the NMex 37Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 5
OPP 37
-1
98.2%
David Aggrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 38Similar
Q4 4:09
3RD & 6
OPP 38
0
98.2%
Jackson Stratton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:37
4TH & 6
OPP 38
0
98.3%
Paddy Turner punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 25DOWNS
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:142% → 2%
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
98.0%
CJ Montes run for no gain to the NMex 9Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+5
98.0%
CJ Montes pass complete to Elijah Queen for 5 yds to the NMex 14Similar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 5
OWN 14
0
97.9%
CJ Montes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:37
4TH & 5
OWN 14
+5
98.0%
CJ Montes pass complete to Luke Wysong for 5 yds to the NMex 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
97.8%
CJ Montes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+1
97.9%
CJ Montes pass complete to Sherod White for 1 yd to the NMex 20Similar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+4
97.9%
CJ Montes pass complete to Sherod White for 4 yds to the NMex 24Similar
Q4 0:23
4TH & 5
OWN 24
0
97.9%
CJ Montes pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
98.9%
[SG] Kneel down by CSU at UNM25 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:04
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 41 yds for a TD, (Michael Boyle KICK)
+10.2
TD · Q2 3:34
Clay Millen pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 21 yds for a TD, (Michael Boyle KICK)
+7.8
KEY PLAY · Q3 2:55
Avery Morrow run for 3 yds to the NMex 15
+4.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com