Try the model
AF

Air Force 13 at San Diego State 3

SDSU
2022 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2022 · Snapdragon Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:16 · Carson Bay punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 27Home team on offense−3.0Pregame prior−7.4Garbage-time factor−0.8Score differential−1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 9:12: Jack Browning 26 yd FG GOOD — SDSU win probability +4.1 pts (now 35%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:25: Kenan Christon run for 12 yds to the SDSt 15 — SDSU win probability +5.6 pts (now 33%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 9:55: Timeout SAN DIEGO ST, clock 09:55 — AF win probability +6.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 9:03: Matthew Dapore 32 yd FG GOOD — AF win probability +2.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. INT · Q4 3:36: Jalen Mayden pass intercepted — AF win probability +4.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9AF made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 8:54SDSU 4th & 7 at AF 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    44.4%−1.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:35AF 4th & 1 at AF 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    55.1%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:16AF 4th & 7 at SDSU 45, up 7
    Close callPunted · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    56.4%−0.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:36SDSU 4th & 5 at SDSU 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:43AF 4th & 1 at SDSU 2, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.6%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    57.8%−1.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    53.3%−6.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:24SDSU 4th & 3 at SDSU 25, down 7
    Close callPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:09AF 4th & 3 at SDSU 48, up 7
    Close callPunted · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:25SDSU 4th & 15 at SDSU 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−3.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00AF 4th & 13 at SDSU 40, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−1.2
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.2%−0.8
    34% to make
    Punt
    64.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:04AF 4th & 9 at SDSU 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.4%
    85% to make
    Punt
    56.6%−8.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:12SDSU 4th & 7 at AF 9, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    22.7%−7.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:42AF 4th & 4 at AF 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−1.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:45SDSU 4th & 20 at SDSU 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−4.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:25AF 4th & 2 at SDSU 27, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.4%−1.3
    62% to make
    Punt
    64.2%−7.5
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:43SDSU 4th & 10 at SDSU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−2.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:03AF 4th & 11 at SDSU 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−2.3
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    67.3%−11.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:02SDSU 4th & 6 at SDSU 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:54AF 4th & 3 at AF 16, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%−0.6
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:31AF 4th & 7 at AF 19, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%−0.7
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.5%
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:31SDSU 4th & 4 at SDSU 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.4%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 12:27AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:3359% → 60%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
40.6%
Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+63
40.6%
Brad Roberts run for 63 yds to the SDSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
40.6%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the SDSt 3Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
40.6%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the SDSt 2Similar
Q1 12:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
40.3%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 2MISSED FG
8 plays · 45 yds · 3:2841% → 41%
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
40.5%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jordan Byrd for 1 yd to the SDSt 28Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+13
40.5%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 13 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+28
40.7%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mark Redman for 28 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:22
1ST & 15
OPP 36
+9
40.7%
Jalen Mayden run for 9 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+1
40.9%
Jordan Byrd run for 1 yd to the AFA 28Similar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 7
OPP 28
0
40.8%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Tyrell ShaversSimilar
Q1 8:54
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+45
40.5%
Jack Browning 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3PUNT
13 plays · 27 yds · 6:3860% → 61%
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
40.0%
Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the AFA 29Similar
Q1 8:54
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+6
40.0%
Haaziq Daniels run for 6 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+2
39.8%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q1 7:35
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+4
40.0%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
39.5%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 42Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+8
39.6%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 1
50
+2
39.5%
Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
39.4%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+3
39.4%
Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 3
OPP 41
-5
39.4%
PENALTY AFA False Start (Jefferson,Ben) 5 yards from SDSU41 to SDSU46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+1
39.4%
DeAndre Hughes run for 1 yd to the SDSt 45Similar
Q1 2:16
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
39.2%
Carson Bay punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4040% → 39%
Q1 2:16
1ST & 12
OWN 3
+1
39.6%
Jordan Byrd run for 1 yd to the SDSt 2Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 13
OWN 2
+8
39.6%
Jordan Byrd run for 8 yds to the SDSt 10Similar
Q1 2:16
3RD & 5
OWN 10
0
39.2%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Mekhi ShawSimilar
Q1 0:36
4TH & 5
OWN 10
0
38.8%
Jack Browning punt for 57 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5DOWNS
12 plays · 65 yds · 6:1761% → 63%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
38.8%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+9
38.5%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 9 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
38.1%
Haaziq Daniels run for no gain to the AFA 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+4
38.3%
Haaziq Daniels run for 4 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
37.8%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 10 yds to the SDSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
37.6%
PENALTY AFA False Start (Jefferson,Ben) 5 yards from SDSU26 to SDSU31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 31
+1
37.7%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the SDSt 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 30
+1
37.9%
Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the SDSt 29Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
37.6%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the SDSt 8Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+6
37.6%
Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the SDSt 2Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 2
0
37.8%
Brad Roberts run for no gain to the SDSt 2Similar
Q2 8:43
4TH & 1
OPP 2
0
37.3%
Brad Roberts run for no gain to the SDSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 3:1938% → 36%
Q2 8:43
1ST & 11
OWN 1
+4
38.4%
Martin Blake run for 4 yds to the SDSt 5Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+13
38.3%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 13 yds to the SDSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
38.6%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 3 yds to the SDSt 21Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+6
38.7%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mark Redman for 6 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+2
38.5%
Kenan Christon run for 2 yds to the SDSt 25Similar
Q2 5:24
4TH & 3
OWN 25
0
36.3%
Jack Browning punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Amari Terry at the AFA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 2:1564% → 66%
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
36.2%
Brad Roberts run for 14 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
34.9%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 5
50
+3
34.6%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q2 5:24
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+1
34.9%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the SDSt 48Similar
Q2 3:09
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
34.5%
Carson Bay punt for 27 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:4437% → 35%
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
37.0%
Jalen Mayden run for 4 yds to the SDSt 25Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 6
OWN 25
-10
37.5%
Jalen Mayden sacked by PJ Ramsey for a loss of 10 yards to the SDSt 15Similar
Q2 3:09
3RD & 16
OWN 15
+1
35.9%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jordan Byrd for 1 yd to the SDSt 16Similar
Q2 1:25
4TH & 15
OWN 16
0
35.0%
Jack Browning punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9MISSED FG
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:2568% → 67%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
31.7%
Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+3
30.8%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the SDSt 46Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+9
30.8%
Haaziq Daniels run for 9 yds to the SDSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
30.3%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 7 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 17
OPP 44
+4
31.0%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 13
OPP 40
0
31.1%
Haaziq Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 13
OPP 40
+57
32.6%
Matthew Dapore 57 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10FUMBLE
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:4535% → 35%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
34.8%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 1 yd to the SDSt 16Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+2
34.6%
Jalen Mayden run for 2 yds to the SDSt 14 Jalen Mayden fumbled, recovered by AFA Peyton ZdroikSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11FG
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:0670% → 71%
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
30.1%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the SDSt 12Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+1
30.1%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 1 yd to the SDSt 13Similar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 9
OPP 13
0
30.9%
John Lee Eldridge III run for no gain to the SDSt 13Similar
Q3 12:04
4TH & 9
OPP 13
+30
29.2%
Matthew Dapore 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12FG
6 plays · 31 yds · 2:4431% → 35%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
31.4%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 15 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
32.7%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 13 yds to the AFA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
32.7%
Jordan Byrd run for 5 yds to the AFA 7Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+2
32.7%
Jordan Byrd run for 2 yds to the AFA 9Similar
Q3 11:56
3RD & 7
OPP 9
0
31.2%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Mark RedmanSimilar
Q3 9:12
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+26
35.3%
Jack Browning 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3068% → 68%
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.8%
Haaziq Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
32.4%
Ben Jefferson run for 5 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q3 9:12
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+1
31.8%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 31Similar
Q3 7:42
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
31.6%
Carson Bay punt for 40 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for no gain to the SDSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:5734% → 31%
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
33.6%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Mekhi ShawSimilar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-10
33.2%
Jalen Mayden sacked by Trey Williams for a loss of 10 yards to the SDSt 17Similar
Q3 7:42
3RD & 20
OWN 17
0
31.7%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:45
4TH & 20
OWN 17
0
30.9%
Jack Browning punt for 48 yds , Amari Terry returns for no gain to the AFA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15MISSED FG
8 plays · 38 yds · 4:2071% → 73%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
29.4%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 36Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+16
29.2%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 16 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
27.6%
Brad Roberts run for no gain to the SDSt 48Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+8
27.7%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 8 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
27.2%
John Lee Eldridge III run for no gain to the SDSt 35Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
27.3%
Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+6
28.1%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 6 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q3 2:25
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+44
26.8%
Matthew Dapore 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:4233% → 29%
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
32.5%
Kenan Christon run for 12 yds to the SDSt 15Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 22
OWN 15
0
31.7%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Kenan ChristonSimilar
Q3 2:25
3RD & 22
OWN 15
+12
30.3%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 12 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q3 0:43
4TH & 10
OWN 27
0
29.1%
Jack Browning punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Amari Terry at the AFA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17FG
12 plays · 54 yds · 5:5774% → 86%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
25.9%
DeAndre Hughes run for 5 yds to the AFA 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 26
+14
27.5%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to David Cormier for 14 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+22
24.9%
Brad Roberts run for 22 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
23.7%
Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+5
23.0%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the SDSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
23.0%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+10
23.0%
Brad Roberts run for 10 yds to the SDSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
23.0%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the SDSt 10Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+4
23.0%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the SDSt 14Similar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 10
OPP 14
-1
16.6%
Haaziq Daniels sacked by Michael Shawcroft for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 15Similar
Q4 9:03
4TH & 11
OPP 15
+32
14.3%
Matthew Dapore 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5616% → 14%
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
15.9%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Jesse MatthewsSimilar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
15.6%
Jordan Byrd run for 4 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q4 8:58
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
15.5%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Mark RedmanSimilar
Q4 8:02
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
13.8%
Jack Browning punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0886% → 88%
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
14.0%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 13Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+1
14.0%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 1 yd to the AFA 14Similar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 5
OWN 14
+2
15.1%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 16Similar
Q4 5:54
4TH & 3
OWN 16
0
12.4%
Carson Bay punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the AFA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20INT
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:1814% → 10%
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
13.5%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Brionne Penny for 7 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+16
14.1%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Brionne Penny for 16 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
15.5%
Jalen Mayden run for 5 yds to the AFA 19Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+13
15.5%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Chance Bell for 13 yds to the AFA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
0
15.5%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Mark RedmanSimilar
Q4 5:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
15.2%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Mark RedmanSimilar
Q4 3:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
0
10.4%
Jalen Mayden pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 1:0590% → 94%
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
10.1%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 15Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+3
9.2%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 3 yds to the AFA 18Similar
Q4 3:24
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+1
8.5%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 19Similar
Q4 2:31
4TH & 7
OWN 19
0
6.0%
Carson Bay punt for 43 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for no gain to the SDSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22INT
6 plays · 51 yds · 0:514% → 5%
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
4.2%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 6 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 4
OWN 35
0
4.4%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Mekhi ShawSimilar
Q4 2:31
3RD & 4
OWN 35
0
4.1%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Tyrell ShaversSimilar
Q4 2:31
4TH & 4
OWN 35
+45
4.0%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Brionne Penny for 40 yds to the SANDIEGOST 25 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, Sideline Inteference (Trey Williams) to the AFA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
6.2%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Tyrell ShaversSimilar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
5.3%
Jalen Mayden pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 23END OF HALF
3 plays · -3 yds · 1:4096% → 96%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
4.4%
H. Daniels takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-1
4.6%
H. Daniels takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OWN 18
-1
4.5%
H. Daniels takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 9:55
Timeout SAN DIEGO ST, clock 09:55
-6.3
KEY PLAY · Q3 2:25
Kenan Christon run for 12 yds to the SDSt 15
+5.6
INT · Q4 3:36
Jalen Mayden pass intercepted
-4.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com