2022 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2022 · Maverik Stadium
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Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadSJSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreSJSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:05 · Travis Benham punt for 36 yds, downed at the UthSt 4
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 1:01: Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 29 yds for a TD UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Michael Anyanwu) declined, (Taren Schive KICK) — SJSU win probability +12.0 pts (now 37%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:11: Cooper Legas pass complete to Justin McGriff for 19 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK) — USU win probability +15.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:11: Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 9 yds for a TD, (Taren Schive KICK) — SJSU win probability +20.1 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q4 6:42: Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 1 yd for a TD, (Chevan Cordeiro pass to Elijah Cooks for Two-Point Conversion) — SJSU win probability +42.4 pts (now 73%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:49: Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK) — USU win probability +43.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
USU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5SJSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
- Q1 7:05SJSU 4th & 10 at USU 40, up 6Close callPunted · 47.0% before the snapGo for it46.8%30% to convertField goal46.7%−0.134% to makePuntTheir call46.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 14:05SJSU 4th & 2 at SJSU 43, down 1Close callPunted · 43.4% before the snapGo for it43.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.4%−0.3average punt
- Q2 12:37USU 4th & 12 at USU 13, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snapGo for it55.2%−1.022% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.2%average punt
- Q2 6:32USU 4th & 2 at SJSU 5, up 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call59.6%51% to convertField goal58.6%−1.092% to makePunt54.2%−5.4average punt
- Q2 4:12SJSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 44, down 8Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 32.3% before the snapGo for it33.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.2%−1.9average punt
- Q2 2:56USU 4th & 3 at USU 27, up 8Close callPunted · 66.9% before the snapGo for it66.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.4%−0.5average punt
- Q2 1:25SJSU 4th & 5 at SJSU 46, down 8Close callPunted · 30.0% before the snapGo for it29.3%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 9:22SJSU 4th & 15 at USU 24, down 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.4% before the snapGo for it22.7%−2.716% to convertField goalTheir call25.4%68% to makePunt17.1%−8.3average punt
- Q3 9:16USU 4th & 1 at SJSU 48, up 5Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call67.5%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt64.5%−3.0average punt
- Q4 14:16SJSU 4th & 4 at SJSU 34, down 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snapGo for it32.5%−0.648% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.1%average punt
- Q4 11:30USU 4th & 4 at SJSU 37, up 5Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call76.9%48% to convertField goal73.6%−3.340% to makePunt73.1%−3.8average punt
- Q4 1:40SJSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 27, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call19.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt10.7%−8.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5SJSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 12:18SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call46.1%97% to makeGo for two46.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:59USU Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call55.3%97% to makeGo for two55.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:29USU Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.7%97% to makeGo for two66.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:25USU Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.1%97% to makeGo for two78.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:01SJSU Touchdown, down 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call31.2%97% to makeGo for two31.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:11USU Touchdown, up 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.6%97% to makeGo for two81.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:11SJSU Touchdown, down 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call27.2%97% to makeGo for two26.9%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 6:42SJSU Touchdown, up 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · convertedKick54.0%−1.997% to makeGo for twoTheir call56.0%45% to convert
- Q4 2:49USU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.0%97% to makeGo for two74.7%−1.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSJSUDrive 1TD6 plays · 81 yds · 2:3747% → 48%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+20
52.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 20 yds to the SJSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
52.7%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, False Start (Chase Williams) to the SJSt 34Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 14
OWN 35
+23
52.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 23 yds to the UthSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+36
52.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 36 yds for a TD, (Taren Schive PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2INT10 plays · 34 yds · 3:0553% → 53%
SJSUDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 2:0348% → 48%
Q1 9:08
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+15
52.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 15 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4TD17 plays · 96 yds · 6:0652% → 57%
Q1 7:05
3RD & 7
OWN 7
+5
51.5%
LEGAS, Cooper pass up the middle incomplete dropped by VAUGHN, Terrell thrown to the USU27. PENALTY Before the snap, SJS Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the USU7 to the USU12. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 2
OWN 12
-5
51.6%
LEGAS, Cooper pass up the middle complete for 11 yards to LANE, Broc caught at the USU23 and advanced to the USU23, End of Play. PENALTY USU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on EDWARDS, Alfred enforced 5 yards from the USU12 to the USU7 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 7
OWN 7
+24
51.5%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 24 yds to the UthSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
52.1%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Broc Lane for 7 yds to the UthSt 38Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+5
52.7%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 5 yds to the UthSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+6
52.7%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Josh Sterzer for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 3
50
+4
52.8%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Josh Sterzer for 4 yds to the SJSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
53.0%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 3 yds to the SJSt 43Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+8
53.0%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 8 yds to the SJSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+12
53.4%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 12 yds to the SJSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 18 yds · 1:5445% → 45%
USUDrive 6PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 1:2856% → 54%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7PUNT4 plays · -23 yds · 1:4545% → 43%
Q2 12:37
1ST & 15
OPP 40
-9
54.6%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Hale Motu'apuaka for a loss of 9 yards to the UthSt 49Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 24
OPP 49
-3
55.1%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Daniel Grzesiak for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSt 48Similar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 27
OWN 48
-15
55.8%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Unnecessary Roughness on CARMONA, JR., Fernando enforced (-15 Yards) to the SJSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8TD15 plays · 61 yds · 5:2357% → 68%
Q2 10:52
2ND & 1
OWN 48
-10
58.2%
LEGAS, Cooper pass to the right incomplete intended for LANE, Broc thrown to the USU50. PENALTY USU Holding on STERZER, Josh enforced 10 yards from the USU48 to the USU38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+15
56.9%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 15 yds to the SJSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
58.4%
TYLER JR., Calvin rush up the middle for a gain of 13 yards to the SJS34 (WOOD, Elijah). PENALTY USU Holding on LAPUAHO, Weylin enforced 10 yards from the SJS47 to the USU43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:52
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+16
57.9%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 16 yds to the SJSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+2
61.0%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 2 yds to the SJSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1734% → 34%
USUDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1667% → 68%
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
66.5%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Josh Sterzer for 4 yds to the UthSt 24Similar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
66.6%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 3 yds to the UthSt 27Similar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
67.8%
CORDEIRO, Chevan pass to the left incomplete intended for COOKS, Elijah thrown to the USU40. PENALTY USU Pass Interference on STEELE, Xavion enforced 15 yards to the SJS41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 11PUNT TD4 plays · 20 yds · 1:3134% → 24%
Q2 2:56
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+3
66.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 3 yds to the SJSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 12TD4 plays · 65 yds · 0:2424% → 37%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
75.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 6 yds to the SJSt 41Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+30
75.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 30 yds to the UthSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
63.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 29 yds for a TD UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Michael Anyanwu) declined, (Taren Schive KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13END OF HALF2 plays · 9 yds · 0:5670% → 71%
USUDrive 14FUMBLE4 plays · 20 yds · 1:1972% → 73%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
73.4%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 9 yds to the UthSt 46 fumbled, recovered by SJSt Tre JenkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15FG8 plays · 22 yds · 4:1332% → 35%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-6
68.0%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Hale Motu'apuaka for a loss of 6 yards to the SJSt 48Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 16
OWN 48
+14
70.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 14 yds to the UthSt 38Similar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
66.6%
COOKS, Elijah pass up the middle incomplete intended for NASH, Nick thrown to the USU2. PENALTY USU Pass Interference on REYNOLDS, Hunter enforced 15 yards to the USU19 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 9
OPP 18
-1
66.1%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Bo Maile for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 19Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 10
OPP 19
-5
68.2%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Daniel Grzesiak and Kaleo Neves for a loss of 5 yards to the UthSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16TD11 plays · 81 yds · 4:0566% → 85%
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
65.8%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 5 yds to the UthSt 24Similar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
66.3%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 7 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+5
67.2%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 5 yds to the SJSt 48Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+23
69.0%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Justin McGriff for 23 yds to the SJSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
84.5%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Justin McGriff for 19 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17TD7 plays · 60 yds · 3:0019% → 41%
USUDrive 18INT5 plays · 14 yds · 1:1971% → 72%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3335% → 32%
USUDrive 20DOWNS7 plays · 10 yds · 2:4672% → 76%
SJSUDrive 21TD11 plays · 56 yds · 4:4836% → 73%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
63.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 8 yds to the UthSt 48Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+3
61.1%
Kairee Robinson run for 3 yds to the UthSt 45 Kairee Robinson fumbled, recovered by SJSt Justin Lockhart for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+12
61.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 12 yds to the UthSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+4
69.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 4 yds to the UthSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
27.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 1 yd for a TD, (Chevan Cordeiro pass to Elijah Cooks for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5341% → 88%
SJSUDrive 23DOWNS5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0422% → 20%
USUDrive 24END OF GAME8 plays · 15 yds · 1:3293% → 96%
Q4 0:35
4TH & 3
OPP 20
0
94.2%
COLES, Connor field goal attempt from 37 yards GOOD [kick was spotted at SJS27], score nullified by penalty, clock 00:35. PENALTY SJS Roughing the Kicker on DANSBY, Michael enforced half the distance from the goal, 10 yards from the SJS20 to the SJS10 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
96.0%
[NH] Kneel down by LEGAS, Cooper at SJS12 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:49
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)
+43.5
TD · Q4 6:42
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 1 yd for a TD, (Chevan Cordeiro pass to Elijah Cooks for Two-Point Conversion)
-42.4
TD · Q3 2:11
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 9 yds for a TD, (Taren Schive KICK)
-20.1