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CSU

Colorado State 12 at Air Force 24

AF
2022 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2022 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:23 · Paddy Turner punt for 45 yds , Amari Terry returns for no gain to the AFA 22 Amari Terry fumbled, recovered by ColSt CJ Onyechi
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 107Pregame prior+15.2Home team on offense+27.7Score differential+18.7Garbage-time factor+7.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:36: Brad Roberts run for 34 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +3.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:03: John Lee Eldridge III run for 4 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +2.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:37: Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 28 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — CSU win probability +2.4 pts (now 4%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:17: Clay Millen pass complete to Jordan Williams for 21 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — CSU win probability +2.9 pts (now 7%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:16: Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the ColSt 44 — AF win probability +2.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 6 of 9CSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 11:59CSU 4th & 2 at CSU 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:59AF 4th & 1 at CSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    90.5%−0.2
    58% to make
    Punt
    90.2%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:01CSU 4th & 15 at CSU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:10AF 4th & 11 at AF 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:40CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:40AF 4th & 1 at CSU 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    87.1%−1.0
    45% to make
    Punt
    86.8%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:26CSU 4th & 2 at AF 29, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.0%−0.2
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    9.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    7.8%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00AF 4th & 1 at CSU 28, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.1%−0.8
    60% to make
    Punt
    90.3%−2.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:09AF 4th & 2 at AF 33, up 17
    Close callPunted · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:37CSU 4th & 5 at AF 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    6.1%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−3.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:23CSU 4th & 17 at CSU 33, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00AF 4th & 1 at CSU 24, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    96.5%−0.6
    68% to make
    Punt
    94.6%−2.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:27AF 4th & 24 at CSU 36, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.6
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.8%
    42% to make
    Punt
    97.7%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:27CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 36, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:22AF 4th & 4 at CSU 29, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    95.6%−0.3
    58% to make
    Punt
    93.2%−2.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:08AF 4th & 16 at CSU 28, up 12
    Close callWent for it · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.3%−0.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    97.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    95.7%−1.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 2:35AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:36AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:03AF Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:37CSU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    3.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:17CSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    5.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:568% → 8%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
92.5%
Clay Millen pass complete to Louis Brown for 16 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
92.5%
Avery Morrow run for 7 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 3
OWN 43
-6
92.5%
Clay Millen sacked by Peyton Zdroik for a loss of 6 yards to the ColSt 37Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+7
92.5%
Clay Millen run for 7 yds to the ColSt 44Similar
Q1 11:59
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
91.7%
Paddy Turner punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2TD
17 plays · 80 yds · 9:2492% → 91%
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
91.8%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+7
91.8%
Ben Jefferson run for 7 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
91.8%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+15
91.8%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 15 yds to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
91.9%
Haaziq Daniels run for 5 yds to the ColSt 44Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 5
OPP 44
-5
91.9%
PENALTY AF False Start (Rillos,Caleb) 5 yards from CSU44 to CSU49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+6
91.8%
Haaziq Daniels run for 6 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q1 11:59
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+5
91.9%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
91.9%
Brad Roberts run for 7 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 3
OPP 31
-5
91.9%
PENALTY AF False Start (Roberts,Brad) 5 yards from CSU31 to CSU36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+2
91.9%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q1 11:59
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+5
91.9%
DeAndre Hughes run for 5 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q1 11:59
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+3
91.8%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the ColSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
91.9%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the ColSt 23Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+11
91.9%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 11 yds to the ColSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
91.9%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the ColSt 11Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+11
91.0%
DeAndre Hughes run for 11 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 3:3410% → 10%
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
90.4%
Clay Millen pass complete to Jaylen Thomas for 7 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
90.1%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
90.3%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
89.7%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the ColSt 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+3
89.9%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tanner Arkin for 3 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 38
-7
89.8%
Clay Millen sacked by Vince Sanford for a loss of 7 yards to the ColSt 31Similar
Q2 14:01
4TH & 15
OWN 31
0
90.1%
Paddy Turner punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 22 yds · 4:5190% → 89%
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
90.0%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+5
90.0%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q2 14:01
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+3
90.1%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
90.2%
Haaziq Daniels sacked by CJ Onyechi for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 37Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+5
90.0%
DeAndre Hughes run for 5 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q2 14:01
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+8
90.0%
Brad Roberts run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
50
0
90.4%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Illegal Motion ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+1
90.1%
Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the AFA 49Similar
Q2 14:01
3RD & 11
OWN 49
0
89.9%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to John Lee Eldridge IIISimilar
Q2 9:10
4TH & 11
OWN 49
0
88.6%
Carson Bay punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:3011% → 11%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
88.9%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 7 yds to the ColSt 22Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 3
OWN 22
-5
88.6%
PENALTY CSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from CSU22 to CSU17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 8
OWN 17
0
88.9%
Clay Millen pass complete to Avery Morrow for no gain to the ColSt 17Similar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+2
89.3%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the ColSt 19Similar
Q2 6:40
4TH & 6
OWN 19
0
89.2%
Paddy Turner punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 4:0489% → 93%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
89.0%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+10
89.1%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 10 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
89.6%
Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 4
50
+6
89.7%
Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
89.7%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+3
89.7%
Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+3
89.5%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q2 6:40
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+1
89.1%
Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the ColSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
92.7%
Brad Roberts run for 34 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7DOWNS
12 plays · 68 yds · 2:108% → 8%
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
92.0%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for no gain to the ColSt 3Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+11
92.0%
Clay Millen pass complete to Jaylen Thomas for 11 yds to the ColSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+12
91.7%
Clay Millen run for 12 yds to the ColSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
91.6%
Clay Millen pass complete to Jaylen Thomas for 10 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+27
91.5%
Clay Millen run for 12 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Jayden Goodwin) to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
91.1%
Clay Millen pass incomplete to Dane OlsonSimilar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+9
91.1%
Jaylen Thomas run for 9 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+1
91.2%
Clay Millen pass complete to Jaylen Thomas for 1 yd to the AFA 29Similar
Q2 0:26
4TH & 2
OPP 29
0
91.8%
Clay Millen pass complete to Avery Morrow for no gain to the AFA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8FG
8 plays · 43 yds · 0:2693% → 95%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+34
93.1%
DeAndre Hughes run for 34 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
93.3%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to David CormierSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+7
93.3%
Brad Roberts run for 7 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+2
93.4%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+44
95.2%
Matthew Dapore 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5194% → 94%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
93.9%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
93.9%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
93.7%
Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the AFA 33Similar
Q3 13:09
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
93.6%
Carson Bay punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10DOWNS
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:326% → 6%
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
93.6%
Louis Brown run for 4 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+6
93.4%
Clay Millen pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 6 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
93.3%
Clay Millen run for 6 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+4
93.2%
Clay Millen pass complete to Avery Morrow for 4 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
92.9%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the AFA 32Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+4
93.1%
Avery Morrow run for 4 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q3 13:09
3RD & 5
OPP 28
0
93.2%
Clay Millen pass incomplete to Avery MorrowSimilar
Q3 9:37
4TH & 5
OPP 28
0
93.9%
Clay Millen pass incomplete to Tory HortonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11TD
12 plays · 72 yds · 5:3496% → 99%
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
95.6%
Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+7
95.7%
Brad Roberts run for 7 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
95.8%
Haaziq Daniels run for 11 yds to the ColSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
95.9%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+17
95.9%
Brad Roberts run for 17 yds to the ColSt 26 Brad Roberts fumbled, recovered by AFA DeAndre Hughes for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
95.9%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the ColSt 23Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+6
95.9%
Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the ColSt 17Similar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+2
95.8%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the ColSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
95.9%
Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the ColSt 9Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+2
95.9%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the ColSt 7Similar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+3
95.8%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the ColSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
98.6%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 4 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:352% → 1%
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+18
98.3%
Clay Millen pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 18 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
98.2%
Clay Millen pass incomplete to Avery MorrowSimilar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-7
98.2%
Clay Millen sacked by Peyton Zdroik for a loss of 7 yards to the ColSt 33Similar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 17
OWN 33
-5
98.4%
PENALTY CSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from CSU33 to CSU28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 22
OWN 28
+5
98.4%
Clay Millen pass complete to Jordan Williams for 5 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q3 1:23
4TH & 17
OWN 33
0
98.7%
Paddy Turner punt for 45 yds , Amari Terry returns for no gain to the AFA 22 Amari Terry fumbled, recovered by ColSt CJ OnyechiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13TD
3 plays · 22 yds · 0:462% → 4%
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-6
98.3%
Clay Millen sacked by Vince Sanford for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 28Similar
Q3 0:37
2ND & 16
OPP 28
+28
96.0%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 28 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14MISSED FG
11 plays · 39 yds · 5:3398% → 98%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
97.5%
Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+1
97.5%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+19
97.5%
DeAndre Hughes run for 19 yds to the ColSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
97.6%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+3
97.6%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+3
97.5%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 3 yds to the ColSt 24Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+2
97.3%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the ColSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
97.6%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the ColSt 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 20
-2
97.6%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Intentional Grounding (-2 Yards) to the ColSt 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 27
OPP 39
+3
97.4%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the ColSt 36Similar
Q4 9:27
4TH & 24
OPP 36
+53
97.8%
Matthew Dapore 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 4:103% → 7%
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-8
97.3%
Clay Millen sacked by Vince Sanford for a loss of 8 yards to the ColSt 28Similar
Q4 9:27
2ND & 18
OWN 28
-8
97.5%
Clay Millen sacked by Vince Sanford for a loss of 8 yards to the ColSt 20Similar
Q4 9:27
3RD & 26
OWN 20
+16
97.6%
Clay Millen pass complete to Jaylen Thomas for 16 yds to the ColSt 36Similar
Q4 9:27
4TH & 10
OWN 36
+19
97.5%
Clay Millen run for 19 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
97.2%
Clay Millen pass incomplete to Tory HortonSimilar
Q4 9:27
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+22
97.2%
Clay Millen pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 22 yds to the AFA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
96.2%
Clay Millen pass complete to Jaylen Thomas for 6 yds to the AFA 17Similar
Q4 6:32
2ND & 4
OPP 17
-4
96.2%
Clay Millen sacked by Jayden Thiergood for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 21Similar
Q4 5:17
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+21
93.3%
Clay Millen pass complete to Jordan Williams for 21 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16DOWNS
16 plays · 16 yds · 5:0897% → 98%
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
96.5%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the ColSt 44Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+2
96.9%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+7
97.3%
Brad Roberts run for 7 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
97.5%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q4 4:22
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+2
97.8%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q4 4:22
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+2
97.7%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q4 4:22
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+7
97.4%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 7 yds to the ColSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
98.5%
Kneel down by Air Force at CSU23 for loss of 1 yards.Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 11
OPP 23
-2
98.5%
Kneel down by Air Force at CSU25 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 13
OPP 25
-3
98.4%
Kneel down by Air Force at CSU28 for loss of 3 yards.Similar
Q4 0:08
4TH & 16
OPP 28
-2
98.4%
Kneel down by Air Force at CSU30 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17END OF GAME
1 play · 25 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+25
98.0%
Avery Morrow run for 25 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:36
Brad Roberts run for 34 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)
+3.6
TD · Q4 5:17
Clay Millen pass complete to Jordan Williams for 21 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-2.9
TD · Q3 4:03
John Lee Eldridge III run for 4 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)
+2.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com