2022 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2022 · Canvas Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadWYO aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreWYO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:42 · Paddy Turner punt for 54 yds, downed at the Wyom 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q4 12:55: WYOMING Penalty, False Start (Nofoafia Tulafono) to the Wyom 20 — WYO win probability +10.3 pts (now 35%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:47: Jayden Clemons pass complete to Alex Brown for 32 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +25.1 pts (now 65%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 10:47: Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 11 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST down — CSU win probability +9.0 pts (now 44%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 4:48: Titus Swen run for a loss of 3 yards to the Wyom 20 — WYO win probability +11.7 pts (now 64%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:50: Clay Millen pass incomplete — CSU win probability +10.2 pts (now 35%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7WYO made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 12:48WYO 4th & 7 at WYO 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 68.9% before the snapGo for it68.9%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.9%average punt
- Q1 8:39CSU 4th & 14 at CSU 29, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.6% before the snapGo for it34.4%−0.418% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.8%average punt
- Q1 6:42WYO 4th & 14 at WYO 19, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snapGo for it62.5%−0.417% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.9%average punt
- Q1 6:42CSU 4th & 1 at WYO 49, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call36.9%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt36.5%−0.4average punt
- Q2 14:10CSU 4th & 14 at WYO 23, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.1% before the snapGo for it41.1%−1.117% to convertField goalTheir call42.1%70% to makePunt38.9%−3.2average punt
- Q2 12:29WYO 4th & 5 at WYO 30, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.2% before the snapGo for it53.3%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.5%average punt
- Q2 8:33WYO 4th & 8 at WYO 22, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.1% before the snapGo for it47.1%−1.432% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.5%average punt
- Q2 7:07CSU 4th & 12 at CSU 30, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snapGo for it48.4%−1.922% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.3%average punt
- Q3 10:42CSU 4th & 11 at CSU 28, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.8% before the snapGo for it48.0%−2.425% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.4%average punt
- Q3 4:18WYO 4th & 2 at CSU 20, down 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 47.3% before the snapGo for it47.3%57% to convertField goalTheir call45.7%−1.675% to makePunt35.5%−11.8average punt
- Q4 12:55CSU 4th & 6 at WYO 6, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.2% before the snapGo for it63.3%−0.631% to convertField goalTheir call63.9%91% to makePunt47.5%−16.4average punt
- Q4 4:48CSU 4th & 3 at WYO 23, down 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.6% before the snapGo for it46.9%−6.052% to convertField goalTheir call52.9%70% to makePunt31.0%−21.9average punt
- Q4 0:50WYO 4th & 11 at WYO 48, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.3% before the snapGo for it66.7%−4.726% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.4%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 0:34WYO Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.3%97% to makeGo for two52.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:47WYO Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call53.0%97% to makeGo for two51.5%−1.545% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWYODrive 1PUNT RETURN TD5 plays · 3 yds · 2:1269% → 68%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-6
30.6%
Andrew Peasley sacked by Mohamed Kamara for a loss of 6 yards to the Wyom 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+9
30.6%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Titus Swen for 9 yds to the Wyom 28Similar
Q1 12:48
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+72
32.4%
Clayton Stewart punt for 44 yds , Tory Horton returns for 72 yds for a TD, (Michael Boyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 2INT6 plays · 16 yds · 2:4768% → 66%
Q1 11:28
2ND & 8
OWN 46
-5
33.0%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Titus Swen for a loss of 5 yards to the Wyom 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 1:2235% → 35%
WYODrive 4PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 1:5765% → 62%
CSUDrive 5FG15 plays · 35 yds · 7:3238% → 43%
Q1 6:42
2ND & 8
OWN 44
-5
37.8%
Clay Millen sacked by Oluwaseyi Omotosho and Jordan Bertagnole for a loss of 5 yards to the ColSt 39Similar
Q1 6:42
3RD & 13
OWN 39
+12
37.0%
Clay Millen pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 12 yds to the Wyom 49Similar
Q1 6:42
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+5
37.7%
MORROW, Avery rush to the right for a loss of 2 yards to the WYO38 (BROWN, Wrook). PENALTY WYO Offsides on SHAY, Connor enforced 5 yards from the WYO36 to the WYO31 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+2
38.0%
Clay Millen pass complete to Avery Morrow for 2 yds to the Wyom 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 16
-7
43.5%
Clay Millen sacked by Shae Suiaunoa and Jordan Bertagnole for a loss of 7 yards to the Wyom 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 6PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4156% → 53%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7INT6 plays · 66 yds · 2:1745% → 49%
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
44.7%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on DAVIS, Gray ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 12:29
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+48
44.0%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 48 yds to the Wyom 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
46.4%
Clay Millen pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 9 yds to the Wyom 21Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+3
46.4%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 3 yds to the Wyom 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 8PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3952% → 49%
CSUDrive 9PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2649% → 49%
Q2 8:33
3RD & 4
OWN 38
-8
48.9%
Clay Millen sacked by Jordan Bertagnole for a loss of 8 yards to the ColSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 10TD13 plays · 69 yds · 6:3349% → 57%
CSUDrive 11END OF HALF3 plays · 62 yds · 0:3448% → 52%
CSUDrive 12PUNT8 plays · 10 yds · 4:1348% → 49%
Q3 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 33
-10
48.7%
MORROW, Avery rush to the left for a gain of 4 yards to the CSU37 (HARRIS, DeVonne). PENALTY CSU Holding on BIVENS, Dante enforced 10 yards from the CSU33 to the CSU23 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 16
OWN 23
+3
47.7%
Clay Millen pass complete to Louis Brown for 3 yds to the ColSt 26Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 13
OWN 26
+2
46.5%
Clay Millen pass complete to Jaylen Thomas for 2 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 13MISSED FG12 plays · 62 yds · 6:2449% → 47%
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
47.8%
Jayden Clemons pass complete to Treyton Welch for 8 yds to the ColSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14FG13 plays · 74 yds · 6:2356% → 75%
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+20
59.4%
Clay Millen pass complete to Peter Montini for 20 yds to the Wyom 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 15PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q4 12:55
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+7
65.5%
Jayden Clemons pass complete to Parker Christensen for 7 yds to the Wyom 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 16TD2 plays · 33 yds · 0:3540% → 65%
CSUDrive 17MISSED FG11 plays · 52 yds · 5:5944% → 48%
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
43.7%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 11 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
45.5%
Clay Millen sacked by Jaden Williams and Easton Gibbs for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 35Similar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+4
43.8%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tanner Arkin for 4 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q4 10:47
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+12
43.9%
Clay Millen pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 12 yds to the Wyom 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
49.8%
MILLEN, Clay pass to the right complete for 3 yards to HORTON, Tory caught at the CSU47 and advanced to the WYO46 (EKELER, Wyett;SIDERS, Braden). PENALTY CSU Holding on BROWN, Louis enforced 10 yards from the WYO49 to the CSU41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+14
50.1%
Clay Millen pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 14 yds to the Wyom 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+4
51.8%
Clay Millen pass complete to Louis Brown for 4 yds to the Wyom 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 18PUNT11 plays · 25 yds · 3:5864% → 75%
CSUDrive 19END OF GAME7 plays · 49 yds · 0:4335% → 26%
Q4 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+3
34.0%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 3 yds to the ColSt 22Similar
Q4 0:15
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+21
24.3%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 21 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+24
25.2%
Clay Millen pass complete to Avery Morrow for 24 yds to the Wyom 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-26
TD · Q4 10:47
Jayden Clemons pass complete to Alex Brown for 32 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK)
-25.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:48
Titus Swen run for a loss of 3 yards to the Wyom 20
-11.7