Try the model
UNM

New Mexico 3 at Air Force 35

AF
2022 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2022 · Falcon Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreUNM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GamePUNT-0.9AF 91.8%Carson Bay punt for 34 yds, fair catchby Luke Wysong at the NMex 10AWAY 0 - HOME 14 · Q2 5:35
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:35 · Carson Bay punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Luke Wysong at the NMex 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 53Pregame prior+29.8Home team on offense+10.1Score differential+5.3Garbage-time factor+2.7Blowout margin−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:47: John Lee Eldridge III run for 10 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +0.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. PUNT · Q2 5:35: Carson Bay punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Luke Wysong at the NMex 10 — UNM win probability +0.9 pts (now 8%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:30: Haaziq Daniels pass complete to David Cormier for 33 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +4.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 5:12: Luke Drzewiecki 39 yd FG GOOD — UNM win probability +1.5 pts (now 4%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:30: Haaziq Daniels run for 37 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +2.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UNM made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 12:57UNM 4th & 5 at UNM 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:27UNM 4th & 1 at UNM 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:27AF 4th & 1 at UNM 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    90.2%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    89.8%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:34UNM 4th & 11 at midfield, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:35AF 4th & 13 at UNM 44, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    90.2%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:58UNM 4th & 15 at UNM 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00AF 4th & 1 at UNM 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    90.4%−1.4
    28% to make
    Punt
    90.9%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:37UNM 4th & 4 at UNM 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:12UNM 4th & 16 at AF 21, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−1.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:30AF 4th & 2 at UNM 37, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    96.2%−0.7
    40% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:22UNM 4th & 22 at UNM 13, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:01AF 4th & 3 at AF 49, up 25
    Close callPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:37UNM 4th & 2 at UNM 46, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:37AF 4th & 1 at UNM 37, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:50UNM 4th & 5 at AF 34, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 11:36AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:47AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:30AF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:30AF Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:26AF Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:037% → 8%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.7%
Nathaniel Jones run for 3 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
92.7%
Justin Holaday run for 3 yds to the NMex 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-1
92.7%
Justin Holaday sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 30Similar
Q1 12:57
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
92.3%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Amari Terry at the AFA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2TD
3 plays · 71 yds · 1:2192% → 92%
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
92.3%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+1
92.3%
Ben Jefferson run for 1 yd to the AFA 35Similar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+65
92.3%
Haaziq Daniels run for 65 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:098% → 8%
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.3%
Justin Holaday run for no gain to the NMex 25Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
92.3%
Justin Holaday run for 1 yd to the NMex 26Similar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+8
92.3%
Justin Holaday pass complete to Duece Jones for 8 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q1 9:27
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
92.0%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Amari Terry at the AFA 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4TD
15 plays · 84 yds · 7:4092% → 93%
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
92.0%
Brad Roberts run for 15 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
92.0%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+2
92.1%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 2 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+14
92.0%
Emmanuel Michel run for 14 yds to the NMex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
92.2%
Emmanuel Michel run for 7 yds to the NMex 41Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+2
92.2%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the NMex 39Similar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+5
92.1%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the NMex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
92.2%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+1
92.2%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the NMex 28Similar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+3
92.1%
Ben Jefferson run for 3 yds to the NMex 25Similar
Q1 9:27
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+2
92.1%
Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the NMex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
92.2%
Brad Roberts run for 9 yds to the NMex 14Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+2
92.2%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the NMex 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
92.2%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the NMex 10Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
92.9%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 10 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 4:138% → 8%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
92.1%
Justin Holaday pass complete to Geordon Porter for 6 yds to the NMex 31Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
92.0%
Christian Washington run for 3 yds to the NMex 34 Christian Washington fumbled, recovered by NMex Tavien FordSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
92.0%
Nathaniel Jones run for 2 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
92.0%
Justin Holaday pass complete to Duece Jones for 15 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
91.7%
Christian Washington run for 5 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+5
91.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Holaday,Justin pass complete short right to Porter,Geordon for 4 yards to the AF 40 (Mack II,Michael) PENALTY UNM Ineligible Downfield on Pass 5 yards from AF 44 to AF 49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
91.9%
Justin Holaday pass incomplete to Geordon PorterSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 49
-1
92.0%
Justin Holaday sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:34
4TH & 11
50
0
92.1%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Amari Terry at the AFA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6PUNT
15 plays · 45 yds · 6:5993% → 92%
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+13
92.6%
Brad Roberts run for 13 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
92.6%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 5
OWN 29
-10
92.6%
Hughes,DeAndre rush left for 15 yards gain to the AF 44 (Martin,Donte), out of bounds PENALTY AF Holding (Karas,Adam) 10 yards from AF 29 to AF 19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 15
OWN 19
+3
92.5%
Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the AFA 22Similar
Q2 12:34
3RD & 12
OWN 22
+13
92.4%
Brad Roberts run for 13 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
92.6%
Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the AFA 34Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+8
92.6%
Emmanuel Michel run for 8 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q2 12:34
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+5
92.7%
Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
92.9%
Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the NMex 47Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+6
92.9%
Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the NMex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
92.9%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the NMex 39Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 8
OPP 39
-5
92.9%
(07:08) PENALTY AF False Start (Iles,Steven) 5 yards from UNM39 to UNM44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 13
OPP 44
+2
92.8%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the NMex 42Similar
Q2 12:34
3RD & 11
OPP 42
+2
92.7%
Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the NMex 44Similar
Q2 5:35
4TH & 13
OPP 44
0
91.8%
Carson Bay punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Luke Wysong at the NMex 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:378% → 8%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
91.8%
Nathaniel Jones run for 3 yds to the NMex 13Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 7
OWN 13
0
91.9%
Justin Holaday pass incomplete to Geordon PorterSimilar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 7
OWN 13
+17
92.0%
Justin Holaday run for 17 yds to the NMex 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
91.7%
Justin Holaday pass incomplete to Geordon PorterSimilar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+2
91.8%
Christian Washington run for 2 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 12
OWN 28
-3
91.9%
Justin Holaday sacked by Vince Sanford for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 25Similar
Q2 2:58
4TH & 15
OWN 25
+7
92.0%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 55 yds , Amari Terry returns for 7 yds to the AFA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8END OF HALF
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:5892% → 93%
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
92.3%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+4
92.4%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 4 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+3
92.3%
Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
92.6%
Haaziq Daniels sacked by Jake Saltonstall for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 34Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+11
92.3%
Haaziq Daniels run for 11 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+2
93.1%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:3093% → 98%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
92.9%
Brad Roberts run for 8 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
93.0%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
93.1%
Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+4
93.2%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 4 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
93.2%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 4 yds to the NMex 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+1
93.2%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the NMex 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 47
-5
92.9%
PENALTY AF False Start (Jefferson,Ben) 5 yards from UNM47 to AF48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+9
92.8%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brad Roberts for 9 yds to the NMex 43Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+4
92.6%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the NMex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
93.2%
Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the NMex 33Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+33
97.6%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to David Cormier for 33 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:533% → 3%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.2%
Justin Holaday pass complete to Geordon Porter for 3 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
97.1%
Nathaniel Jones run for 4 yds to the NMex 32Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
97.1%
Justin Holaday run for 1 yd to the NMex 31Similar
Q3 8:37
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
97.4%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Amari Terry at the AFA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11FUMBLE
3 plays · 17 yds · 1:1798% → 98%
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
97.6%
Omar Fattah run for 5 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+3
97.6%
Omar Fattah run for 3 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+9
97.7%
Omar Fattah run for 9 yds to the AFA 46 Omar Fattah fumbled, recovered by NMex AJ HaulcySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 12FG
5 plays · 25 yds · 2:083% → 4%
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+31
97.4%
Justin Holaday pass complete to Geordon Porter for 31 yds to the AFA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
97.1%
Justin Holaday pass incomplete to Elijah QueenSimilar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-8
97.1%
Justin Holaday sacked by Alec Mock for a loss of 8 yards to the AFA 23Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 18
OPP 23
+2
97.4%
Justin Holaday run for 2 yds to the AFA 21Similar
Q3 5:12
4TH & 16
OPP 21
+39
95.9%
Luke Drzewiecki 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 4:4297% → 99%
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
96.6%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+5
96.6%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+8
96.5%
Brad Roberts run for 8 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
96.8%
Brad Roberts run for 9 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+8
96.8%
Brad Roberts run for 8 yds to the NMex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
96.8%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the NMex 42Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+2
96.8%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the NMex 40Similar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+3
96.7%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the NMex 37Similar
Q3 0:30
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+37
99.4%
Haaziq Daniels run for 37 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · -12 yds · 0:381% → 1%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.3%
Sherod White run for 1 yd to the NMex 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
99.3%
Justin Holaday pass incomplete to Luke WysongSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-5
99.3%
PENALTY UNM False Start (Wysong,Luke) 5 yards from UNM26 to UNM21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 21
-5
99.0%
PENALTY UNM False Start (Ford,Tavien) 5 yards from UNM21 to UNM16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 16
-12
99.1%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-12 Yards) to the NMex 13Similar
Q4 14:22
4TH & 22
OWN 13
0
99.1%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Amari Terry at the AFA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:21100% → 100%
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
99.5%
Michel,Emmanuel rush left for 11 yards gain to the UNM47 (Lewis,Jer'Marius) PENALTY AF Holding (Terry,Amari) 10 yards from AF42 to AF32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 20
OWN 32
+9
99.5%
Emmanuel Michel run for 9 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+4
99.5%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q4 14:22
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+4
99.5%
Amari Terry run for 4 yds to the AFA 49 Amari Terry fumbled, recovered by AFASimilar
Q4 12:01
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
99.6%
Carson Bay punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Luke Wysong at the NMex 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · 34 yds · 4:241% → 0%
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
99.4%
Christian Washington run for 5 yds to the NMex 17Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+6
99.4%
Christian Washington run for 6 yds to the NMex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-8
99.4%
Justin Holaday sacked by Peyton Zdroik for a loss of 8 yards to the NMex 15Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 18
OWN 15
+7
99.2%
Christian Washington run for 7 yds to the NMex 22Similar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 11
OWN 22
+16
99.4%
Justin Holaday pass complete to Luke Wysong for 16 yds to the NMex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
99.4%
Justin Holaday run for 3 yds to the NMex 41Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
99.4%
Justin Holaday pass incomplete to Luke WysongSimilar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+5
99.4%
Justin Holaday pass complete to Trae Hall for 5 yds to the NMex 46Similar
Q4 7:37
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
99.7%
Christian Washington run for no gain to the NMex 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17TD
10 plays · 46 yds · 5:11100% → 100%
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
99.7%
Jet Harris run for 2 yds to the NMex 44Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+4
99.7%
Jet Harris run for 4 yds to the NMex 40Similar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+3
99.7%
Jet Harris run for 3 yds to the NMex 37Similar
Q4 7:37
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+2
99.7%
Jet Harris run for 2 yds to the NMex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
99.7%
Jensen Jones run for 11 yds to the NMex 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
99.7%
Sione Angilau run for 5 yds to the NMex 19Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+8
99.7%
Jensen Jones run for 8 yds to the NMex 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
99.7%
Sione Angilau run for 2 yds to the NMex 9Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+9
99.9%
Jensen Jones run for 9 yds for a TD, (Anthony Rodriguez KICK)Similar
Q4 2:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
99.9%
Rodriguez,Anthony kick attempt good (H: Bay,Carson, LS: Melgarejo III,J. Frank) PENALTY AF Delay Of Game (Bay,Carson) 5 yards from UNM03 to UNM03. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 18DOWNS
11 plays · 43 yds · 1:290% → 0%
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
100.0%
Justin Holaday pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 9 yds to the NMex 32Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 1
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Justin Holaday pass incomplete to Duece JonesSimilar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+3
100.0%
Zach Vigil run for 3 yds to the NMex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+26
100.0%
Justin Holaday pass complete to Duece Jones for 26 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
100.0%
Justin Holaday pass incomplete to Andrew EricksonSimilar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
100.0%
Justin Holaday pass incomplete to Andrew EricksonSimilar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+5
100.0%
PENALTY AF Offside (BoisD'Enghien,Andrew) 5 yards from AF39 to AF34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 5
OPP 34
0
100.0%
Justin Holaday pass incomplete to Trae HallSimilar
Q4 0:50
4TH & 5
OPP 34
0
100.0%
Justin Holaday pass incomplete to Luke WysongSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:50100% → 100%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
100.0%
Kneel down by Air Force at AF33 for loss of 1 yards.Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 33
-2
100.0%
Kneel down by Air Force at AF31 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:30
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to David Cormier for 33 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)
+4.4
TD · Q3 0:30
Haaziq Daniels run for 37 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)
+2.7
FG · Q3 5:12
Luke Drzewiecki 39 yd FG GOOD
-1.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com