Try the model
UNM

New Mexico 10 at Utah State 27

USU
2022 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2022 · Maverik Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreUNM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:17 · Aaron Rodriguez punt for 31 yds, downed at the UthSt 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 115Pregame prior+15.7Home team on offense+2.6Garbage-time factor+0.9Score differential+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:39: Nathaniel Jones run for 24 yds for a TD, (Luke Drzewiecki KICK) — UNM win probability +4.7 pts (now 26%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:10: Timeout NEW MEXICO, clock 00:10 — UNM win probability +4.7 pts (now 35%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:51: Connor Coles run for 6 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK) — USU win probability +9.0 pts (now 80%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 7:44: Connor Coles 27 yd FG GOOD — USU win probability +2.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:00: Hunter Reynolds 55 Yd Fumble Return (Connor Coles Kick) — USU win probability +5.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USU made the numbers' call on 8 of 13UNM made the numbers' call on 4 of 10
  1. Q1 13:36UNM 4th & 2 at UNM 9, tied
    Close callPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:28UNM 4th & 6 at UNM 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:29USU 4th & 7 at USU 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:58UNM 4th & 3 at UNM 41, down 7
    Close callPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 8:58USU 4th & 1 at UNM 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    82.9%−0.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    82.3%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:43USU 4th & 9 at UNM 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    81.3%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:26UNM 4th & 7 at USU 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    16.1%−2.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:17USU 4th & 6 at USU 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:39USU 4th & 3 at USU 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    74.0%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:43USU 4th & 11 at UNM 40, down 3
    Close callPunted · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    69.8%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:01UNM 4th & 5 at USU 35, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.7%−0.9
    45% to make
    Punt
    34.3%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:51USU 4th & 6 at UNM 6, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.6%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    64.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    55.7%−9.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:17UNM 4th & 10 at USU 32, down 4
    Close callPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    23.3%
    51% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:35USU 4th & 3 at USU 8, up 4
    Close callPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.5%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:32USU 4th & 15 at UNM 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−2.0
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.8%
    51% to make
    Punt
    73.4%−1.4
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:13UNM 4th & 17 at UNM 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−3.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  17. Q3 0:53USU 4th & 12 at USU 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%−2.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:32UNM 4th & 5 at UNM 46, down 7
    Close callPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%−0.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 12:32USU 4th & 1 at UNM 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    84.9%−3.0
    58% to make
    Punt
    78.9%−9.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 7:44USU 4th & 3 at UNM 10, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.9%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.7%−1.2
    88% to make
    Punt
    79.0%−10.0
    average punt
  21. Q4 6:13UNM 4th & 8 at UNM 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  22. Q4 4:25USU 4th & 10 at UNM 43, up 10
    Close callPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    91.9%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%−0.1
    average punt
  23. Q4 0:52UNM 4th & 18 at UNM 17, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%−<0.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UNM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 13:02USU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:39UNM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:51USU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 3:00USU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2414% → 15%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+6
85.8%
Nathaniel Jones run for 6 yds to the NMex 7Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 7
0
85.8%
Justin Holaday pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 7
+2
85.8%
Nathaniel Jones run for 2 yds to the NMex 9Similar
Q1 13:36
4TH & 2
OWN 9
0
85.5%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 34 yds, downed at the NMex 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2TD
2 plays · 43 yds · 0:3486% → 86%
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
85.5%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 5 yds to the NMex 38Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+38
85.7%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 38 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3415% → 15%
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
85.5%
Justin Holaday pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
85.5%
UTAH ST Penalty, Offsides (Hale Motu'apuaka) to the NMex 45Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
85.5%
Nathaniel Jones run for no gain to the NMex 45Similar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 5
OWN 45
-1
85.5%
Justin Holaday run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 44Similar
Q1 11:28
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
85.4%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5986% → 85%
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
85.5%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 12Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 12
OWN 12
+5
85.4%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 5 yds to the UthSt 17Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 7
OWN 17
0
85.4%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:29
4TH & 7
OWN 17
0
85.2%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Luke Wysong at the NMex 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3115% → 15%
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
85.2%
Bobby Wooden run for 6 yds to the NMex 40Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+1
85.1%
Nathaniel Jones run for 1 yd to the NMex 41Similar
Q1 10:29
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
85.1%
Justin Holaday pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:58
4TH & 3
OWN 41
+8
85.2%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 29 yds , Cooper Jones returns for 8 yds to the UthSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6MISSED FG
14 plays · 38 yds · 5:1585% → 85%
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
85.4%
Cooper Legas run for 2 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+15
85.4%
LEGAS, Cooper sacked for a loss of 5 yards at the USU35 (MOON, Cody). PENALTY UNM Horse Collar Tackle on MOON, Cody enforced 15 yards from the USU40 to the UNM45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
85.5%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 6 yds to the NMex 39Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 4
OPP 39
0
85.5%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for no gain to the NMex 39Similar
Q1 8:58
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+4
85.4%
Cooper Legas pass complete to NyNy Davis for 4 yds to the NMex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
85.6%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 6 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 4
OPP 29
0
85.6%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:58
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+3
85.5%
Cooper Legas run for 3 yds to the NMex 26Similar
Q1 8:58
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+1
85.3%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 1 yd to the NMex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
85.6%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 3 yds to the NMex 22Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
85.6%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:58
3RD & 7
OPP 22
-10
85.5%
QB Keeper LEGAS, Cooper rush to the left for a gain of 15 yards to the UNM7 (HAULCY, A.J.;REED II, Jerrick). PENALTY USU Holding on EDWARDS, Alfred enforced 10 yards from the UNM22 to the UNM32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:58
3RD & 17
OPP 32
+8
85.3%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Josh Sterzer for 8 yds to the NMex 24Similar
Q1 3:43
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+41
84.8%
Connor Coles 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7FG
13 plays · 63 yds · 3:1715% → 19%
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+23
84.6%
Justin Holaday run for 23 yds to the NMex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
84.1%
Justin Holaday pass complete to Trae Hall for no gain to the NMex 47Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
83.6%
Justin Holaday run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 7
50
+18
83.6%
Justin Holaday pass complete to Luke Wysong for 18 yds to the UthSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
82.9%
UTAH ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (5 Yards) to the UthSt 27Similar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 5
OPP 27
0
82.8%
Justin Holaday pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+11
82.8%
Nathaniel Jones run for 11 yds to the UthSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
82.8%
Nathaniel Jones run for 3 yds to the UthSt 13Similar
Q1 0:36
2ND & 7
OPP 13
0
82.2%
Nathaniel Jones run for no gain to the UthSt 13Similar
Q1 0:36
3RD & 7
OPP 13
0
82.7%
Justin Holaday pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:26
4TH & 7
OPP 13
+31
81.5%
Luke Drzewiecki 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5983% → 82%
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
83.0%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 5 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 45
-7
83.1%
Cooper Legas sacked by Ian Shewell for a loss of 7 yards to the UthSt 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 38
+6
82.1%
Cooper Legas run for 6 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
Q2 14:17
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
81.8%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 30 yds, downed at the NMex 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 4:3818% → 26%
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
81.6%
Nathaniel Jones run for 8 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 2
OWN 34
0
81.0%
Nathaniel Jones run for no gain to the NMex 34Similar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+4
81.4%
Justin Holaday run for 4 yds to the NMex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
81.1%
Justin Holaday run for 18 yds to the UthSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
80.4%
Nathaniel Jones run for 9 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+2
79.9%
Nathaniel Jones run for 2 yds to the UthSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
80.1%
UTAH ST Penalty, Offsides (Hale Motu'apuaka) to the UthSt 28Similar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 5
OPP 28
+1
79.9%
Justin Holaday run for 1 yd to the UthSt 27Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+3
78.7%
Chad Alexander run for 3 yds to the UthSt 24Similar
Q2 9:39
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+24
74.0%
Nathaniel Jones run for 24 yds for a TD, (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10PUNT
16 plays · 35 yds · 4:5676% → 73%
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.9%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-6
75.7%
Cooper Legas sacked by Bryce Santana for a loss of 6 yards to the UthSt 19Similar
Q2 9:39
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+15
75.1%
LEGAS, Cooper pass up the middle incomplete intended for MCGRIFF, Justin thrown to the USU30. PENALTY UNM Roughing the Passer on HUNTER, Dion enforced 15 yards from the USU19 to the USU34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
76.1%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 3 yds to the UthSt 37Similar
Q2 9:39
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
77.0%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:39
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+4
75.8%
Cooper Legas run for 4 yds to the UthSt 41Similar
Q2 9:39
4TH & 3
OWN 41
+10
75.7%
Stephen Kotsanlee run for 10 yds to the NMex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
77.7%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:39
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
77.5%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 3 yds to the NMex 46Similar
Q2 6:02
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+7
75.3%
Cooper Legas run for 7 yds to the NMex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
75.8%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 4 yds to the NMex 35Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
76.6%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for no gain to the NMex 35Similar
Q2 6:02
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
75.6%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:02
4TH & 6
OPP 35
-5
74.5%
UTAH ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the NMex 40Similar
Q2 4:43
4TH & 11
OPP 40
0
72.5%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 36 yds, downed at the NMex 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11MISSED FG
13 plays · 61 yds · 4:4227% → 34%
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
73.2%
Luke Wysong run for 3 yds to the NMex 7Similar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+10
73.5%
Nathaniel Jones run for 10 yds to the NMex 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
72.8%
Justin Holaday run for 3 yds to the NMex 20Similar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 7
OWN 20
-2
72.9%
Justin Holaday run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 18Similar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+14
73.8%
Justin Holaday pass complete to Luke Wysong for 14 yds to the NMex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
71.8%
Justin Holaday pass complete to Luke Wysong for 4 yds to the NMex 36Similar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+9
71.5%
Justin Holaday run for 9 yds to the NMex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
70.9%
HOLADAY, Justin pass to the right incomplete intended for ZIMMERMAN, Kade thrown to the USU30. PENALTY USU Pass Interference on ANYANWU, Michael enforced 15 yards to the USU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
69.9%
Justin Holaday pass complete to Bobby Wooden for no gain to the UthSt 40Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
64.7%
Justin Holaday pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+5
65.2%
Justin Holaday pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 5 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+53
66.3%
Luke Drzewiecki 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 12 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
69.9%
Robert Briggs run for 12 yds to the UthSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13TD
19 plays · 88 yds · 4:0969% → 80%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
69.3%
Cooper Legas run for no gain to the UthSt 12Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
69.2%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 12
-3
68.1%
Cooper Legas sacked by Dion Hunter for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 9Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 9
+15
67.3%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Personal Foul (Cody Moon) to the UthSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
69.5%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+7
69.3%
Cooper Legas pass complete to NyNy Davis for 7 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+9
69.0%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 9 yds to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
70.7%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+16
70.4%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Justin McGriff for 16 yds to the NMex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
72.6%
Robert Briggs run for 3 yds to the NMex 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+5
72.6%
LEGAS, Cooper pass up the middle incomplete intended for COBBS, Brian thrown to the UNM30. PENALTY Before the snap, UNM Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the UNM42 to the UNM37. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
72.6%
QB Keeper LEGAS, Cooper rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the UNM37 (HUNTER, Dion;WILSON, Ronald), 1ST DOWN. PENALTY USU Holding on SOUTH, Jacob UNM Illegal use of the hands , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+6
72.7%
Robert Briggs run for 6 yds to the NMex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+24
73.5%
Robert Briggs run for 24 yds to the NMex 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
73.5%
Robert Briggs run for 1 yd to the NMex 6Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
73.5%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
72.3%
Robert Briggs run for no gain to the NMex 6Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
0
70.9%
PENALTY UNM Unsportsmanlike Conduct on HARRIS, Justin USU Unsportsmanlike Conduct on STERZER, Josh , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
79.8%
Connor Coles run for 6 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 43 yds · 2:3422% → 22%
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+43
78.2%
Nathaniel Jones run for 43 yds to the UthSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
74.3%
Nathaniel Jones run for 2 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+3
74.1%
Nathaniel Jones run for 3 yds to the UthSt 27Similar
Q3 10:51
3RD & 5
OPP 27
-5
75.2%
Zach Vigil run for a loss of 5 yards to the UthSt 32Similar
Q3 8:17
4TH & 10
OPP 32
0
77.6%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 31 yds, downed at the UthSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4278% → 76%
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
78.4%
Robert Briggs run for 3 yds to the UthSt 4Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+1
78.2%
Robert Briggs run for 1 yd to the UthSt 5Similar
Q3 8:17
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+3
77.3%
Cooper Legas run for 3 yds to the UthSt 8Similar
Q3 6:35
4TH & 3
OWN 8
0
76.2%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 51 yds , returns for no gain to the NMex 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16FG
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:0381% → 83%
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
80.8%
Robert Briggs run for 7 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+2
81.5%
Robert Briggs run for 2 yds to the NMex 32Similar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+5
80.5%
LEGAS, Cooper pass to the right incomplete intended for COBBS, Brian broken up by ODUMS, A.J. at the UNM25. PENALTY UNM Offsides on LEUTELE, Ray enforced 5 yards from the UNM32 to the UNM27 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
81.5%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
81.4%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 10
OPP 27
-5
80.3%
Cooper Legas sacked by Jaden Phillips for a loss of 5 yards to the NMex 32Similar
Q3 4:32
4TH & 15
OPP 32
+49
82.8%
Connor Coles 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 2:1918% → 17%
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
81.6%
Nathaniel Jones run for 5 yds to the NMex 30Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
80.9%
Justin Holaday pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
81.8%
Justin Holaday run for 5 yds to the NMex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
81.0%
Chad Alexander run for no gain to the NMex 35Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
81.3%
Justin Holaday pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-7
82.4%
Justin Holaday sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the NMex 28Similar
Q3 2:13
4TH & 17
OWN 28
0
83.2%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 28 yds , Cooper Jones returns for no gain to the UthSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2087% → 85%
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
86.6%
Cooper Legas run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 42Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 12
OWN 42
0
85.9%
Jordan Wilmore run for no gain to the UthSt 42Similar
Q3 2:13
3RD & 12
OWN 42
0
84.9%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:53
4TH & 12
OWN 42
0
85.2%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 3:2118% → 16%
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
82.3%
Justin Holaday run for 6 yds to the NMex 26Similar
Q3 0:11
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+2
81.2%
Justin Holaday run for 2 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+2
81.9%
Nathaniel Jones run for 2 yds to the NMex 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
81.4%
Nathaniel Jones run for 11 yds to the NMex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
80.3%
Nathaniel Jones run for 3 yds to the NMex 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+1
79.6%
Nathaniel Jones run for 1 yd to the NMex 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+1
80.4%
Justin Holaday pass complete to Chad Alexander for 1 yd to the NMex 46Similar
Q4 12:32
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
83.8%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Cooper Jones at the UthSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20FG
12 plays · 77 yds · 4:4887% → 91%
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
86.9%
Robert Briggs run for 3 yds to the UthSt 16Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+13
86.9%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 13 yds to the UthSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
87.3%
Robert Briggs run for 5 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 5
OWN 34
0
87.6%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Offsides ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
89.2%
Robert Briggs run for a loss of 5 yards to the NMex 43Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 15
OPP 43
+3
88.4%
Robert Briggs run for 3 yds to the NMex 40Similar
Q4 12:32
3RD & 12
OPP 40
+11
87.8%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 11 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q4 12:32
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+12
87.8%
Cooper Legas run for 12 yds to the NMex 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
89.4%
Robert Briggs run for 7 yds to the NMex 10Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 3
OPP 10
0
89.4%
Robert Briggs run for no gain to the NMex 10Similar
Q4 12:32
3RD & 3
OPP 10
0
88.6%
UTAH ST Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 7:44
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+27
91.4%
Connor Coles 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:319% → 7%
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.3%
Justin Holaday run for no gain to the NMex 25Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.3%
Justin Holaday run for 2 yds to the NMex 27Similar
Q4 7:44
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
91.8%
Justin Holaday pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:13
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
93.1%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 16 yds, downed at the NMex 43Similar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
93.4%
UTAH ST Penalty, False Start (Weylin Lapuaho) to the NMex 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:4893% → 93%
Q4 6:13
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+3
93.3%
Robert Briggs run for 3 yds to the NMex 45Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 12
OPP 45
-5
93.2%
UTAH ST Penalty, False Start (Falepule Alo) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 17
50
+3
92.7%
Robert Briggs run for 3 yds to the NMex 47Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 14
OPP 47
+4
93.6%
Robert Briggs run for 4 yds to the NMex 43Similar
Q4 4:25
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
93.2%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 23FUMBLE RETURN TD
5 plays · 35 yds · 1:256% → 2%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
93.7%
Justin Holaday run for 1 yd to the NMex 21Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+15
93.7%
HOLADAY, Justin sacked for a loss of 8 yards at the UNM13 (JOYNER JR., Patrick;VONGPHACHANH, AJ). PENALTY USU Face mask on JOYNER JR., Patrick enforced 15 yards from the UNM21 to the UNM36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
92.7%
Justin Holaday pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+15
92.8%
HOLADAY, Justin pass to the left incomplete intended for WYSONG, Luke thrown to the USU35. PENALTY USU Pass Interference on TATUM, Dominic enforced 15 yards to the USU49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+55
97.9%
Hunter Reynolds 55 Yd Fumble Return (Connor Coles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 24DOWNS
4 plays · -8 yds · 2:082% → 2%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.1%
Justin Holaday run for 5 yds to the NMex 30Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-9
97.9%
Justin Holaday sacked by Daniel Grzesiak for a loss of 9 yards to the NMex 21Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 14
OWN 21
-4
98.2%
Justin Holaday sacked by Patrick Joyner Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the NMex 17Similar
Q4 0:52
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
98.2%
Justin Holaday pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:5299% → 99%
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
99.1%
[NHSG] Kneel down by LEGAS, Cooper at UNM18 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 18
0
99.1%
[NHSG] Kneel down by LEGAS, Cooper at UNM21 (team loss of 3), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:51
Connor Coles run for 6 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)
+9
TD · Q4 3:00
Hunter Reynolds 55 Yd Fumble Return (Connor Coles Kick)
+5.1
TD · Q2 9:39
Nathaniel Jones run for 24 yds for a TD, (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)
-4.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com