Try the model
CSU

Colorado State 16 at San José State 28

SJSU
2022 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2022 · CEFCU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:53 · Paddy Turner punt for 32 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4Play 19Pregame prior+41.5Home team on offense−0.5Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Time remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 2:18: Taren Schive kickoff for 49 yds , Keegan Holles return for 11 yds to the ColSt 27 — SJSU win probability +6.6 pts (now 33%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:51: Kairee Robinson 5 Yd Run (Taren Schive Kick) — SJSU win probability +8.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:46: Elijah Cooks 35 Yd pass from Chevan Cordeiro (Taren Schive Kick), (T. Schive KICK), (T. Schive KICK) — SJSU win probability +10.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:21: Tory Horton 40 Yd pass from Jackson Stratton (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — CSU win probability +13.1 pts (now 22%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:22: Kairee Robinson 1 Yd Run (Taren Schive Kick) — SJSU win probability +7.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8CSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 8:53CSU 4th & 13 at CSU 16, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:02SJSU 4th & 7 at CSU 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    91.0%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:50CSU 4th & 21 at CSU 24, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−0.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:19SJSU 4th & 24 at midfield, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%−0.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 10:53SJSU 4th & 2 at SJSU 45, down 4
    Close callPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:07CSU 4th & 26 at CSU 4, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−1.2
    5% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:21SJSU 4th & 1 at CSU 23, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    85.4%−0.7
    70% to make
    Punt
    83.4%−2.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:07SJSU 4th & 2 at CSU 2, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    84.0%−0.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    80.9%−3.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:27CSU 4th & 9 at SJSU 9, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    16.2%−4.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:13SJSU 4th & 10 at SJSU 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:15SJSU 4th & 5 at CSU 41, up 4
    Close callPunted · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    82.2%−1.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.6%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:31CSU 4th & 15 at CSU 15, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−3.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:23CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 20, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−1.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:51CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:16CSU 4th & 2 at SJSU 2, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    8.0%−2.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−6.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:51SJSU 4th & 8 at SJSU 23, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:21CSU 4th & 24 at SJSU 40, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%−0.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    5.2%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    5.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:58CSU 4th & 15 at CSU 22, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%−<0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SJSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:43CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:51SJSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:46SJSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:21CSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    14.1%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    15.0%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:22SJSU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1TD
14 plays · 56 yds · 1:176% → 6%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
94.1%
Clay Millen run for 8 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+11
94.1%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 11 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
93.9%
Clay Millen run for 8 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+11
93.9%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 11 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
93.7%
Avery Morrow run for 56 yds for a TD (Michael Boyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:557% → 8%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
93.0%
Clay Millen run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 18Similar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
93.0%
Clay Millen run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 18Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 11
OWN 18
-9
92.8%
Clay Millen sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the ColSt 9Similar
Q1 9:32
3RD & 20
OWN 9
+7
92.7%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 7 yds to the ColSt 16Similar
Q1 8:53
4TH & 13
OWN 16
0
92.5%
Paddy Turner punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4693% → 92%
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
92.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Dominick Mazotti, broken up by Ayden HectorSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
92.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
92.5%
Kairee Robinson run for 3 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 7
OPP 45
0
92.4%
pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q1 8:02
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
92.1%
Travis Benham punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 3:068% → 9%
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
92.0%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tanner Arkin for 1 yd to the ColSt 13Similar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 11
OWN 11
+2
92.0%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tanner Arkin for 2 yds to the ColSt 13Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+8
91.8%
Avery Morrow run for 8 yds to the ColSt 21Similar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+14
91.7%
Avery Morrow run for 14 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+14
91.7%
Avery Morrow run for 14 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
91.4%
Clay Millen pass incomplete to Tory Horton, broken up by Tre JenkinsSimilar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-4
91.4%
Keegan Holles run for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 31Similar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 14
OWN 31
-7
91.3%
Clay Millen sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the ColSt 24Similar
Q1 4:50
4TH & 21
OWN 24
0
91.1%
Paddy Turner punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 10 yds · 4:2591% → 89%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
91.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Sam Olson for 3 yds to the SJSt 43Similar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
91.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Sam Olson for 3 yds to the SJSt 43Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+5
90.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Shamar Garrett for 5 yds to the SJSt 48Similar
Q1 3:43
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+4
90.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 4 yds to the ColSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
90.6%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 5 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+7
90.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Sam Olson for 7 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-10
90.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Nash SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Offensive holding (James McNorton) to the ColSt 46Similar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 20
OPP 46
+5
90.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 5 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 15
OPP 41
0
90.1%
pass incomplete to Justin LockhartSimilar
Q1 0:19
4TH & 24
50
0
88.6%
Travis Benham punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 13:3694% → 89%
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
93.8%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 4 yds to the SJSt 28Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+9
93.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 9 yds to the SJSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
93.5%
Kairee Robinson run for 4 yds to the SJSt 41Similar
Q1 12:03
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+5
93.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Sam Olson for 5 yds to the SJSt 46Similar
Q1 11:27
3RD & 1
OWN 46
-1
93.3%
Kairee Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 45Similar
Q1 10:53
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
93.0%
Alex Weir punt for 36 ydsSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
88.7%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 4 yds to the SJSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -16 yds · 1:5311% → 12%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-9
88.7%
Clay Millen sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the ColSt 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 11
+3
88.8%
Avery Morrow run for 3 yds to the ColSt 14Similar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 16
OWN 14
-1
88.7%
Clay Millen pass complete to Avery Morrow for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 13Similar
Q2 14:22
4TH & 17
OWN 13
-5
88.9%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Brandon Guzman) to the ColSt 8Similar
Q2 13:25
4TH & 22
OWN 8
-4
88.6%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Henry Blackburn) to the ColSt 4Similar
Q2 13:07
4TH & 26
OWN 4
0
88.5%
Paddy Turner punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 8TD
11 plays · 44 yds · 4:0089% → 86%
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
88.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 12 yds to the ColSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
88.7%
Kairee Robinson run for 1 yd to the ColSt 31Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+8
88.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 8 yds to the ColSt 23Similar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 1
OPP 23
0
87.8%
pass incomplete to Justin LockhartSimilar
Q2 11:21
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+3
87.4%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 3 yds to the ColSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
88.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Elijah Cooks, broken up by Chigozie AnusiemSimilar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+13
87.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 13 yds to the ColSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
87.7%
Kairee Robinson run for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 10Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
87.2%
pass incomplete to Jermaine BraddockSimilar
Q2 9:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
86.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 8 yds to the ColSt 2Similar
Q2 9:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
85.9%
Dominick Mazotti 2 Yd pass from Chevan Cordeiro (Taren Schive Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9FG
13 plays · 71 yds · 5:3515% → 19%
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
85.2%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Dontae Keys) to the ColSt 10Similar
Q2 8:51
1ST & 20
OWN 10
0
85.1%
Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 20
OWN 10
-5
84.0%
Clay Millen pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons COLORADO ST Penalty, illegal formation (Melquan Stovall) to the ColSt 5Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 25
OWN 5
+1
83.9%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the ColSt 6 COLORADO ST Penalty, illegal formation (Melquan Stovall) to the ColSt 6Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 24
OWN 6
+26
84.1%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tanner Arkin for 26 yds to the ColSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
82.8%
Clay Millen sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 31Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+1
82.6%
Clay Millen pass complete to Gary Williams for 1 yd to the ColSt 32Similar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+41
82.6%
Clay Millen pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 41 yds to the SJSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+22
79.7%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 22 yds to the SJSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
79.2%
Clay Millen pass incomplete to Justus Ross-Simmons, broken up by Bryun ParhamSimilar
Q2 4:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
79.1%
Avery Morrow run for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSt 9Similar
Q2 3:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
79.4%
pass incomplete to Avery MorrowSimilar
Q2 3:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
81.0%
Michael Boyle 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:1382% → 80%
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
81.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 4 yds to the SJSt 29Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
81.5%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 7 yds to the SJSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
81.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Elijah Cooks, broken up by Chigozie AnusiemSimilar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
81.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Sam Olson, broken up by Grady KellySimilar
Q2 2:17
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
80.1%
pass incomplete to Nick NashSimilar
Q2 2:13
4TH & 10
OWN 36
+35
79.5%
Travis Benham punt for 35 yds , Tory Horton returns for no gain to the ColSt 29 , Tory Horton returns for no gain to the ColSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11END OF HALF
8 plays · 63 yds · 1:4721% → 26%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
79.3%
Clay Millen sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 28Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+25
79.6%
Clay Millen pass complete to Jordan Williams for 10 yds to the SJSt 38 for a 1ST down SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, personal foul (Kyle Harmon) to the SJSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
77.9%
Clay Millen pass incomplete COLORADO ST Penalty, off-side (Viliami Fehoko) to the SJSt 47Similar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
76.3%
Clay Millen pass incomplete to Justus Ross-Simmons COLORADO ST Penalty, illegal formation (Melquan Stovall) to the ColSt 48Similar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+20
77.6%
Clay Millen run for 20 yds to the SJSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
75.2%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Kyle Harmon) to the SJSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
74.5%
Clay Millen run for 9 yds to the SJSt 8Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 1
OPP 8
-5
74.5%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Keegan Hamilton) to the ColSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 12TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:0979% → 87%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
78.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 7 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
80.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 1 yd to the SJSt 33Similar
Q3 14:17
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
78.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 8 yds to the SJSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
79.4%
Kairee Robinson run for 2 yds to the SJSt 43Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+10
78.8%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 10 yds to the ColSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
78.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 10 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+25
78.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 25 yds to the ColSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
79.1%
Kairee Robinson run for 7 yds to the ColSt 5Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+5
87.4%
Kairee Robinson 5 Yd Run (Taren Schive Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13INT
7 plays · 57 yds · 2:3316% → 20%
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
84.5%
Clay Millen pass incomplete to Tory Horton, broken up by Nehemiah Shelton for a 1ST down SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Nehemiah Shelton) to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
83.4%
pass incomplete to Tanner ArkinSimilar
Q3 10:37
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-10
83.7%
Clay Millen sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the ColSt 30Similar
Q3 9:53
3RD & 20
OWN 30
+38
85.1%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 38 yds to the SJSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
80.7%
Avery Morrow run for 11 yds to the SJSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
80.2%
Clay Millen run for 3 yds to the SJSt 18Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 7
OPP 18
0
79.7%
Clay Millen pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:5684% → 84%
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
84.3%
pass incomplete to Sam OlsonSimilar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+16
84.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 16 yds to the SJSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
84.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 3 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, personal foul (Dequan Jackson) to the ColSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
86.0%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 4 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+1
85.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 1 yd to the ColSt 41Similar
Q3 5:29
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
85.0%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:15
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
83.5%
Travis Benham punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15INT
3 plays · 9 yds · 1:1683% → 83%
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
82.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 27Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+10
82.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 10 yds to the SJSt 37Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 1
OWN 37
-15
82.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass intercepted COLORADO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Ayden Hector) to the ColSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 2:0020% → 19%
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
80.0%
Clay Millen run for 6 yds to the ColSt 26Similar
Q3 0:44
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+1
79.0%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the ColSt 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-7
79.4%
Clay Millen sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the ColSt 20 COLORADO ST Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) to the ColSt 20Similar
Q4 14:41
4TH & 10
OWN 20
-5
81.4%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Brandon Guzman) to the ColSt 15Similar
Q4 14:31
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
81.3%
Paddy Turner puntSimilar
Q4 14:23
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
81.3%
Paddy Turner punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 31 yds · 1:1819% → 18%
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+16
81.5%
Clay Millen pass complete to Avery Morrow for 16 yds to the ColSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
80.8%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 4 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
79.7%
pass incomplete to Tory HortonSimilar
Q3 2:57
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
80.8%
Clay Millen pass incomplete to Justus Ross-Simmons, broken up by Tre JenkinsSimilar
Q3 2:51
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
81.9%
Paddy Turner punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 18TD
2 plays · 54 yds · 0:3283% → 93%
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+19
83.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 19 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
93.0%
Elijah Cooks 35 Yd pass from Chevan Cordeiro (Taren Schive Kick), (T. Schive KICK), (T. Schive KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19DOWNS
10 plays · 72 yds · 4:309% → 8%
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
91.1%
Avery Morrow run for 8 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+42
89.7%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 42 yds to the SJSU 25 for a 1ST down SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Nehemiah Shelton) to the SJSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
87.7%
Clay Millen run for 10 yds to the SJSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
87.8%
Avery Morrow run for 8 yds to the SJSt 7Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+1
88.5%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the SJSt 6Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+5
89.4%
Avery Morrow run for 5 yds to the SJSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
88.4%
Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
89.8%
Avery Morrow run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 2Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
91.1%
pass incomplete to Tory HortonSimilar
Q4 9:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
91.8%
pass incomplete to Justus Ross-SimmonsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:2193% → 93%
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+18
93.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Sam Olson for 18 yds to the SJSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
93.5%
Kairee Robinson run for 2 yds to the SJSt 23Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
93.6%
pass incomplete to Jackson CanaanSimilar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 8
OWN 23
0
93.3%
pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q4 7:51
4TH & 8
OWN 23
0
92.6%
Alex Weir punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21TD
9 plays · 64 yds · 3:248% → 22%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
92.3%
Clay Millen pass complete to Mekhi Fox COLORADO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Gray Davis) to the ColSt 26Similar
Q4 7:38
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+26
93.2%
Clay Millen pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 26 yds to the SJSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
91.9%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, off-side (Kyle Harmon) to the SJSt 43Similar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 5
OPP 43
+17
91.4%
Clay Millen pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 17 yds to the SJSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
91.1%
Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-7
91.5%
Clay Millen sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the SJSt 33Similar
Q4 4:57
3RD & 17
OPP 33
-7
93.1%
Clay Millen sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the SJSt 40Similar
Q4 4:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
91.6%
Jackson Stratton pass complete to Tory HortonSimilar
Q4 4:21
4TH & 24
OPP 40
+40
78.5%
Tory Horton 40 Yd pass from Jackson Stratton (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 22TD
7 plays · 86 yds · 1:5588% → 97%
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-5
87.6%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, delay of game (Chevan Cordeiro) to the SJSt 9Similar
Q4 4:17
1ST & 15
OWN 9
+38
87.3%
Kairee Robinson run for 38 yds to the SJSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+20
89.7%
Kairee Robinson run for 5 yds to the SJSU 48 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Cam Bariteau) to the ColSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
91.3%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the ColSt 38Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 15
OPP 38
0
90.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Elijah Cooks, broken up by Chigozie AnusiemSimilar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 15
OPP 38
+37
89.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 37 yds to the ColSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.9%
Kairee Robinson 1 Yd Run (Taren Schive Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 23Uncategorized
10 plays · 45 yds · 1:234% → 5%
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
95.9%
pass incomplete to Louis BrownSimilar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
96.1%
pass incomplete to Tory HortonSimilar
Q4 2:02
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
96.2%
pass incomplete to Tory HortonSimilar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 10
OWN 27
-5
96.4%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Gray Davis) to the ColSt 22Similar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 15
OWN 22
+18
96.4%
Jackson Stratton run for 18 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
95.7%
pass incomplete to Tory HortonSimilar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+17
95.8%
Jackson Stratton pass complete to Tory Horton for 17 yds to the SJSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
95.4%
Jackson Stratton pass complete to Tory Horton for 15 yds to the SJSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
94.5%
pass incomplete to Justus Ross-SimmonsSimilar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
94.8%
pass incomplete to Tory HortonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:21
Tory Horton 40 Yd pass from Jackson Stratton (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-13.1
TD · Q4 13:46
Elijah Cooks 35 Yd pass from Chevan Cordeiro (Taren Schive Kick), (T. Schive KICK), (T. Schive KICK)
+10
TD · Q3 10:51
Kairee Robinson 5 Yd Run (Taren Schive Kick)
+8.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com