2022 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2022 · War Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · WYO
modelWYO aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWYO scoreUSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Kneel down by PEASLEY, Andrew at USU25 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:01: Titus Swen run for 5 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +8.4 pts (now 76%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:48: Bishop Davenport run for 5 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK) — USU win probability +8.8 pts (now 35%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:09: Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 31 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK) — USU win probability +16.4 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 8:50: D.Q. James run for 8 yds to the Wyom 25 — WYO win probability +7.7 pts (now 84%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:11: Titus Swen run for 6 yds for a TD, (T. Swen Run For Two-point Conversion) — WYO win probability +10.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WYO made the numbers' call on 4 of 7USU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
- Q1 11:05WYO 4th & 10 at WYO 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 65.3% before the snapGo for it65.3%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.4%average punt
- Q1 9:37USU 4th & 6 at USU 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 34.5% before the snapGo for it34.5%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.6%average punt
- Q1 8:16WYO 4th & 5 at WYO 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 64.5% before the snapGo for it64.5%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.6%average punt
- Q1 6:56USU 4th & 1 at USU 47, tiedClose callPunted · 35.5% before the snapGo for it35.6%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.2%−0.4average punt
- Q1 1:35USU 4th & 9 at WYO 49, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snapGo for it31.3%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.5%average punt
- Q2 12:58WYO 4th & 8 at USU 42, up 7Close callPunted · 69.4% before the snapGo for it69.5%34% to convertField goal69.1%−0.430% to makePuntTheir call69.4%−0.1average punt
- Q2 11:38USU 4th & 16 at USU 14, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.3% before the snapGo for it28.2%−1.514% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.7%average punt
- Q2 5:53USU 4th & 8 at USU 38, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snapGo for it20.8%−0.834% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.6%average punt
- Q2 1:34WYO 4th & 11 at WYO 35, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snapGo for it70.5%−1.326% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.8%average punt
- Q2 0:19USU 4th & 7 at USU 24, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snapGo for it24.3%−1.635% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.0%average punt
- Q3 10:15WYO 4th & 3 at USU 38, up 10Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 79.3% before the snapGo for it79.8%53% to convertField goalTheir call77.9%−1.938% to makePunt77.9%−1.9average punt
- Q3 10:15USU 4th & 1 at USU 47, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call22.2%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt19.7%−2.5average punt
- Q3 3:06WYO 4th & 6 at USU 34, up 3Close callKicked a field goal · 67.9% before the snapGo for it68.1%40% to convertField goalTheir call67.2%−0.947% to makePunt66.0%−2.1average punt
- Q3 0:15USU 4th & 8 at USU 41, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snapGo for it26.5%−1.934% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.4%average punt
- Q4 11:13WYO 4th & 14 at USU 47, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snapGo for it80.5%−2.519% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.9%average punt
- Q4 8:50USU 4th & 7 at USU 45, down 6Close callPunted · 22.8% before the snapGo for it20.5%37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.1%−0.4average punt
- Q4 1:38USU 4th & 3 at WYO 45, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.4%52% to convertField goal2.5%−0.925% to makePunt2.3%−1.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 2 of 3USU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 5:02WYO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.7%97% to makeGo for two67.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:01WYO Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.3%97% to makeGo for two78.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:48USU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call27.4%97% to makeGo for two27.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:09USU Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call31.5%97% to makeGo for two31.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 4:11WYO Touchdown, up 12 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick95.5%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call95.1%−0.445% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWYODrive 1PUNT8 plays · 24 yds · 3:5559% → 59%
USUDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 1:2841% → 41%
WYODrive 3PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2159% → 59%
USUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2041% → 41%
Q1 8:16
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+3
58.4%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 3 yds to the UthSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 5TD4 plays · 80 yds · 1:5459% → 64%
Q1 6:56
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+46
58.9%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Colin O'Brien for 46 yds to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6PUNT10 plays · 26 yds · 3:2737% → 36%
Q1 5:02
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
62.8%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 6 yds to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+13
62.8%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Josh Sterzer for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
50
-3
61.7%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 7PUNT11 plays · 38 yds · 3:3764% → 65%
USUDrive 8PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 1:2035% → 34%
WYODrive 9TD8 plays · 67 yds · 3:3766% → 76%
USUDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 2:0826% → 26%
Q2 8:01
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
73.8%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 9 yds to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 11
OWN 35
-7
73.6%
Bishop Davenport sacked by Braden Siders and Isaac White for a loss of 7 yards to the UthSt 28Similar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 18
OWN 28
+10
74.3%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to NyNy Davis for 10 yds to the UthSt 38Similar
Q2 5:53
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
74.5%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 45 yds , returns for no gain to the Wyom 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 11TD6 plays · 17 yds · 2:0529% → 35%
WYODrive 12PUNT9 plays · 10 yds · 2:1469% → 69%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1528% → 27%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
71.6%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Robert Briggs for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 19Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 12
OWN 19
0
72.0%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Bishop Davenport for no gain to the UthSt 19Similar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 12
OWN 19
+5
72.7%
DAVENPORT, Bishop pass to the left incomplete intended for MCGRIFF, Justin thrown to the WYO40. PENALTY WYO Offsides on HARRIS, DeVonne enforced 5 yards from the USU19 to the USU24 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 14FG5 plays · 50 yds · 0:1971% → 77%
USUDrive 15INT3 plays · 11 yds · 0:4827% → 27%
WYODrive 16MISSED FG8 plays · 39 yds · 3:5075% → 77%
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
75.1%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 11 yds to the Wyom 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 17TD7 plays · 62 yds · 3:0624% → 42%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 18FG10 plays · 52 yds · 3:5665% → 75%
USUDrive 19PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 2:5131% → 23%
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
69.5%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 3 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
69.8%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 9 yds to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 7
OWN 42
-1
68.7%
Bishop Davenport sacked by Oluwaseyi Omotosho for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 20PUNT9 plays · 33 yds · 3:4777% → 81%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
77.6%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 11 yds to the Wyom 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
79.7%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Treyton Welch for 7 yds to the UthSt 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 41
-6
78.8%
Andrew Peasley sacked by Sione Moa for a loss of 6 yards to the UthSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 21PUNT7 plays · 37 yds · 2:2326% → 24%
WYODrive 22TD9 plays · 83 yds · 4:3984% → 97%
Q4 4:11
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+6
97.0%
Titus Swen run for 6 yds for a TD, (T. Swen Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 23DOWNS9 plays · 16 yds · 2:245% → 3%
Q4 4:02
2ND & 2
OWN 45
0
94.7%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Calvin Tyler Jr. for no gain to the UthSt 45Similar
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
94.8%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Kyrese Rowan for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 8
50
-2
97.2%
Bishop Davenport sacked by DeVonne Harris and Jordan Bertagnole for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 48Similar
Q4 1:38
4TH & 3
OPP 45
-2
97.4%
Bishop Davenport sacked by DeVonne Harris for a loss of 2 yards to the Wyom 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 24END OF GAME3 plays · 28 yds · 1:3899% → 99%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:09
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 31 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)
-16.4
TD · Q4 4:11
Titus Swen run for 6 yds for a TD, (T. Swen Run For Two-point Conversion)
+10
TD · Q2 3:48
Bishop Davenport run for 5 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)
-8.8