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USU

Utah State 17 at Colorado State 13

CSU
2022 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2022 · Canvas Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:01 · Giles Pooler pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 103Pregame prior−20.1Home team on offense+4.8Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:21: Avery Morrow run for 26 yds for a TD, (Michael Boyle KICK) — CSU win probability +3.9 pts (now 27%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:34: Bishop Davenport run for 4 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK) — USU win probability +11.1 pts (now 81%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 14:08: Michael Boyle 35 yd FG GOOD — CSU win probability +5.3 pts (now 30%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 6:54: Giles Pooler pass incomplete — CSU win probability +8.9 pts (now 32%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:16: Bishop Davenport run for 3 yds to the UthSt 41 — USU win probability +14.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 12 of 13USU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 11:45CSU 4th & 6 at USU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    20.5%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:32USU 4th & 3 at CSU 28, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.3%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    75.4%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:21CSU 4th & 7 at CSU 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:34USU 4th & 12 at USU 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−1.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:34CSU 4th & 1 at USU 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    28.0%−1.7
    23% to make
    Punt
    28.7%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:55CSU 4th & 2 at USU 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    31.3%−1.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    31.1%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:43USU 4th & 7 at CSU 35, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.7%−0.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    67.3%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:39CSU 4th & 17 at CSU 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−1.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:04USU 4th & 5 at USU 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:20CSU 4th & 12 at USU 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−1.4
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    31.6%−5.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:36USU 4th & 8 at USU 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:01CSU 4th & 5 at USU 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    40.5%−1.0
    42% to make
    Punt
    40.6%−0.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:21CSU 4th & 7 at CSU 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:57USU 4th & 12 at CSU 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−1.7
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.1%
    54% to make
    Punt
    53.4%−1.7
    average punt
  15. Q3 10:02CSU 4th & 3 at CSU 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%−0.9
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:34CSU 4th & 3 at CSU 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−0.6
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:41USU 4th & 3 at USU 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%−0.7
    average punt
  18. Q3 1:19CSU 4th & 11 at CSU 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−2.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 14:08CSU 4th & 16 at USU 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−3.7
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.2%
    79% to make
    Punt
    13.2%−10.0
    average punt
  20. Q4 10:49USU 4th & 22 at USU 38, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%−6.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%
    average punt
  21. Q4 8:30CSU 4th & 27 at CSU 15, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−5.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%
    average punt
  22. Q4 6:54USU 4th & 4 at USU 45, up 4
    Close callPunted · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.5%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1USU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 1:54USU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:21CSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:34USU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USUDrive 1INT
6 plays · 41 yds · 1:3484% → 83%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
16.2%
Cooper Legas run for 9 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
16.2%
Cooper Legas run for 2 yds to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
16.2%
TYLER JR., Calvin rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the USU37 (BARITEAU, Cam;JACKSON, Dequan). PENALTY CSU Offsides on KAMARA, Mohamed enforced 5 yards from the USU36 to the USU41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 41
+6
16.2%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 6 yds to the UthSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+19
16.2%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 19 yds to the ColSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
16.8%
Cooper Legas pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2FG
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:4117% → 18%
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+19
17.1%
Tory Horton pass complete to A'Jon Vivens for 19 yds to the UthSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
17.7%
A'Jon Vivens run for no gain to the UthSt 10Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
17.7%
Avery Morrow run for 4 yds to the UthSt 6Similar
Q1 12:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
17.6%
Giles Pooler pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
18.0%
Michael Boyle 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 3MISSED FG
12 plays · 47 yds · 4:1382% → 80%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
18.0%
Terrell Vaughn run for 2 yds to the UthSt 27Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
18.0%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 7 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
17.9%
Cooper Legas run for 7 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
17.8%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 7 yds to the UthSt 48Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+4
17.8%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 4 yds to the ColSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
17.8%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 7 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+6
17.7%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Justin McGriff for 6 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
17.7%
Terrell Vaughn run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 36Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+5
17.8%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 5 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+3
20.1%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Parker Buchanan for 3 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q1 7:32
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+45
20.4%
Connor Coles 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:1120% → 23%
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
20.4%
Avery Morrow run for 7 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+5
20.6%
Avery Morrow run for 5 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
20.7%
Giles Pooler pass complete to Avery Morrow for no gain to the ColSt 40Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
20.5%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the ColSt 41Similar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+2
20.4%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q1 4:21
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
22.2%
Paddy Turner punt for 44 ydsSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
22.8%
UTAH ST Penalty, False Start (Weylin Lapuaho) to the UthSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 5TD
10 plays · 87 yds · 2:2777% → 80%
Q1 4:21
1ST & 15
OWN 8
0
22.9%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:21
2ND & 15
OWN 8
+15
23.0%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (CJ Onyechi) to the UthSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
22.8%
Robert Briggs run for 2 yds to the UthSt 25Similar
Q1 4:21
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+9
22.8%
Cooper Legas run for 9 yds to the UthSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
22.5%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:21
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+12
22.7%
Robert Briggs run for 12 yds to the UthSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
22.0%
Robert Briggs run for 3 yds to the UthSt 49Similar
Q1 4:21
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+8
22.0%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 8 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
21.9%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 11 yds to the ColSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
20.4%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Justin McGriff for 32 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 2:3321% → 27%
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
21.4%
POOLER, Giles sacked for a loss of 5 yards at the CSU27 (TAFISI, MJ). PENALTY USU Offsides on GRZESIAK, Daniel enforced 5 yards from the CSU32 to the CSU37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:54
1ST & 5
OWN 37
-5
22.1%
COLORADO ST Penalty, False Start (Tanner Arkin) to the ColSt 32Similar
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
21.4%
Avery Morrow run for 3 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+24
21.5%
Giles Pooler pass complete to Louis Brown for 24 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
22.5%
Giles Pooler pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+8
23.5%
Avery Morrow run for 8 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+7
23.4%
Avery Morrow run for 7 yds to the UthSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
27.2%
Avery Morrow run for 26 yds for a TD, (Michael Boyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:4774% → 72%
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
26.0%
Levi Williams run for 3 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
25.9%
UTAH ST Penalty, False Start (Weylin Lapuaho) to the UthSt 23Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
26.2%
Levi Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:21
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
26.7%
Levi Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:34
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+16
27.7%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 58 yds , Tory Horton returns for 16 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8DOWNS
10 plays · 29 yds · 3:3926% → 29%
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
26.3%
Giles Pooler pass complete to Louis Brown for 10 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
27.2%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the ColSt 46Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
27.1%
Giles Pooler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:34
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+8
26.2%
Giles Pooler pass complete to Louis Brown for 8 yds to the UthSt 46Similar
Q2 13:34
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+2
26.6%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the UthSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
27.6%
Giles Pooler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-3
27.4%
A'Jon Vivens run for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 47Similar
Q2 13:34
3RD & 13
OPP 47
+11
26.2%
Giles Pooler pass complete to Tanner Arkin for 11 yds to the UthSt 36Similar
Q2 9:55
4TH & 2
OPP 36
0
29.5%
Giles Pooler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
28.5%
WILLIAMS, Levi pass to the left incomplete intended for ROYALS, Jalen thrown to the CSU15. PENALTY CSU Pass Interference on LADAY, Greg enforced 15 yards to the CSU49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 9MISSED FG
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:1273% → 71%
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
27.3%
Levi Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+11
27.6%
Levi Williams pass complete to Justin McGriff for 11 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
27.3%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 3 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
26.5%
Terrell Vaughn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 7
OPP 35
0
27.6%
Levi Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:43
4TH & 7
OPP 35
+52
29.5%
Connor Coles 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:0430% → 31%
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
30.1%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the ColSt 36Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+18
30.2%
Avery Morrow run for 18 yds to the UthSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-7
31.9%
Giles Pooler sacked by Daniel Grzesiak for a loss of 7 yards to the ColSt 47Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 17
OWN 47
0
30.4%
Giles Pooler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 17
OWN 47
0
29.5%
Giles Pooler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:39
4TH & 17
OWN 47
0
31.2%
Paddy Turner punt for 44 yds, downed at the UthSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 30 yds · 1:3567% → 66%
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+25
32.7%
Levi Williams run for 25 yds to the UthSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
31.7%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 4 yds to the UthSt 38Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+1
30.8%
Levi Williams pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 1 yd to the UthSt 39Similar
Q2 6:39
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
31.2%
Levi Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:04
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
34.0%
punt blocked by Dane Olson blocked by Dane OlsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12MISSED FG
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:4437% → 34%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
36.6%
Avery Morrow run for 4 yds to the UthSt 16Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 6
OPP 16
-5
36.6%
COLORADO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 21Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 11
OPP 21
-1
36.6%
Avery Morrow run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 22Similar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 12
OPP 22
0
35.1%
Giles Pooler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:20
4TH & 12
OPP 22
+39
34.4%
Michael Boyle 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4465% → 62%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
35.2%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the UthSt 24Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
35.3%
Levi Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 8
OWN 24
0
36.2%
Levi Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:36
4TH & 8
OWN 24
+15
37.6%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 55 yds , Tory Horton returns for 15 yds to the ColSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14DOWNS
13 plays · 28 yds · 2:3536% → 40%
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
36.4%
Avery Morrow run for 4 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
37.5%
Giles Pooler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:36
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+15
35.6%
POOLER, Giles sacked for a loss of 6 yards at the CSU34 (JOYNER JR., Patrick). PENALTY USU Face mask on JOYNER JR., Patrick enforced 15 yards from the CSU40 to the USU45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-15
38.3%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dontae Keys) to the ColSt 40Similar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
37.1%
Giles Pooler run for 4 yds to the ColSt 44Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
37.7%
Giles Pooler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:36
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+15
36.5%
Giles Pooler pass complete to Dane Olson for 15 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
38.3%
POOLER, Giles pass to the right incomplete intended for HORTON, Tory broken up by ANYANWU, Michael at the USU10. PENALTY CSU Holding on KEYS, Dontae enforced 10 yards from the USU41 to the CSU49 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 20
OWN 49
0
36.5%
Giles Pooler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 20
OWN 49
0
36.2%
Giles Pooler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 20
OWN 49
+15
36.9%
Giles Pooler pass complete to Mekhi Fox for 15 yds to the UthSt 36Similar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 5
OPP 36
0
40.1%
Giles Pooler pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0161% → 60%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
39.3%
UTAH ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 31Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+12
40.5%
Robert Briggs run for 12 yds to the UthSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:3938% → 39%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
38.0%
Giles Pooler pass complete to Louis Brown for 10 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
38.3%
Giles Pooler pass complete to Tanner Arkin for 3 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
39.6%
Avery Morrow run for no gain to the ColSt 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
37.8%
Giles Pooler pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:21
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
39.4%
Paddy Turner punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 17FG
8 plays · 46 yds · 2:2461% → 65%
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
39.3%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 4 yds to the UthSt 27Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+14
38.6%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Justin McGriff for 14 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
37.1%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 15 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
36.0%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 15 yds to the ColSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-4
34.7%
Bishop Davenport run for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 33 Bishop Davenport fumbled, recovered by UthSt Bishop DavenportSimilar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 14
OPP 33
+2
36.4%
Bishop Davenport run for 2 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q3 13:21
3RD & 12
OPP 31
0
37.5%
Bishop Davenport pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:57
4TH & 12
OPP 31
+48
35.3%
Connor Coles 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5037% → 37%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
37.3%
Avery Morrow run for 7 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 3
OWN 30
0
38.9%
Giles Pooler pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 3
OWN 30
0
36.6%
Giles Pooler pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:02
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
36.6%
Paddy Turner punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 2:2867% → 81%
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
32.9%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 4 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+20
32.4%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 20 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
30.9%
Bishop Davenport run for 3 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+6
30.6%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 6 yds to the ColSt 26Similar
Q3 10:02
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+19
31.8%
Bishop Davenport run for 19 yds to the ColSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
30.5%
Bishop Davenport pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
30.5%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 3 yds to the ColSt 4Similar
Q3 7:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
19.5%
Bishop Davenport run for 4 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0024% → 23%
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
23.7%
Avery Morrow run for 8 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
25.5%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the ColSt 34Similar
Q3 7:34
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-2
24.5%
Avery Morrow run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 32Similar
Q3 5:34
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
23.4%
Paddy Turner punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5379% → 79%
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
21.0%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+5
20.9%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 5 yds to the UthSt 38Similar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 3
OWN 38
0
20.2%
Bishop Davenport pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:41
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
21.3%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 59 yds, downed at the ColSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 41 yds · 3:2224% → 22%
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
23.6%
Avery Morrow run for 4 yds to the ColSt 7Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+23
23.6%
Giles Pooler pass complete to Gary Williams for 23 yds to the ColSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
24.5%
Avery Morrow run for no gain to the ColSt 30Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+15
24.1%
POOLER, Giles pass to the right incomplete intended for HORTON, Tory broken up by CARTER, Ajani at the USU35. PENALTY USU Pass Interference on CARTER, Ajani enforced 15 yards to the CSU45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
26.5%
Giles Pooler pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-1
25.5%
Avery Morrow run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 44Similar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 11
OWN 44
0
24.1%
Giles Pooler run for no gain to the ColSt 44Similar
Q3 1:19
4TH & 11
OWN 44
0
23.3%
punt for 40 ydsSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-6
21.6%
BRIGGS, Robert rush to the left for a gain of 6 yards to the USU22 (CARTER, Cam'Ron;HOWELL, Jack). PENALTY USU Holding on LAPUAHO, Weylin enforced half the distance from the goal, 8 yards from the USU16 to the USU8 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 23FUMBLE
2 plays · -4 yds · 1:0178% → 78%
Q3 1:19
1ST & 18
OWN 8
+1
22.1%
Bishop Davenport run for 1 yd to the UthSt 9Similar
Q3 0:18
2ND & 17
OWN 9
+3
22.1%
Robert Briggs run for 3 yds to the UthSt 12 Robert Briggs fumbled, recovered by ColSt Cam BariteauSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 24FG
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:5229% → 30%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
29.0%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the UthSt 11Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 11
-5
29.0%
COLORADO ST Penalty, False Start (Jacob Gardner) to the UthSt 16Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 16
0
27.9%
Giles Pooler pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 16
-2
24.9%
Giles Pooler sacked by Daniel Grzesiak for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 18Similar
Q4 14:08
4TH & 16
OPP 18
+35
30.1%
Michael Boyle 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 25PUNT
11 plays · 13 yds · 3:1972% → 67%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
27.6%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 8 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
26.1%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
26.8%
Bishop Davenport pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
27.3%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 3 yds to the UthSt 38Similar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+12
26.6%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
50
+6
24.5%
Robert Briggs run for 6 yds to the ColSt 44Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 4
OPP 44
-10
24.1%
BRIGGS, Robert rush to the left for a gain of 8 yards to the CSU36 (ANUSIEM, Chigozie). PENALTY USU Holding on DOLPHIN, Chandler enforced 10 yards from the CSU44 to the USU46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 14
OWN 46
0
26.9%
Bishop Davenport pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 14
OWN 46
-8
27.8%
Bishop Davenport sacked by Cam Bariteau for a loss of 8 yards to the UthSt 38Similar
Q4 10:49
4TH & 22
OWN 38
0
28.6%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 30 yds, downed at the ColSt 32Similar
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
33.2%
MORROW, Avery rush to the right for a gain of 4 yards to the CSU36 (GRZESIAK, Daniel). PENALTY CSU Holding on DAVIS, Gray enforced 10 yards from the CSU32 to the CSU22 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · -17 yds · 2:1932% → 29%
Q4 10:49
1ST & 20
OWN 22
0
32.1%
Giles Pooler pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 20
OWN 22
-9
32.2%
Giles Pooler sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the ColSt 13Similar
Q4 10:14
3RD & 29
OWN 13
+7
30.5%
Avery Morrow run for 7 yds to the ColSt 20Similar
Q4 10:14
4TH & 22
OWN 20
-5
29.2%
COLORADO ST Penalty, False Start (Ayden Hector) to the ColSt 15Similar
Q4 8:30
4TH & 27
OWN 15
+3
28.6%
Paddy Turner punt for 49 yds , Cooper Jones returns for 3 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3677% → 77%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
22.6%
Bishop Davenport pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
23.2%
Bishop Davenport run for 5 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+1
22.6%
Bishop Davenport run for 1 yd to the UthSt 45Similar
Q4 6:54
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
22.6%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 28INT
4 plays · 24 yds · 0:0032% → 34%
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
31.5%
Giles Pooler pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+25
30.8%
Giles Pooler pass complete to Peter Montini for 25 yds to the ColSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
36.3%
Avery Morrow run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 45Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 11
OWN 45
0
33.8%
POOLER, Giles pass to the left incomplete intended for ROSS-SIMMONS, Justus broken up by ANYANWU, Michael at the USU20. PENALTY CSU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on ARKIN, Tanner USU Pass Interference on ANYANWU, Michael , Offsetting penalties [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 29END OF GAME
11 plays · 24 yds · 5:1680% → 97%
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
19.7%
Bishop Davenport run for 3 yds to the UthSt 41Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+5
19.6%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 5 yds to the UthSt 46Similar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+3
19.5%
Bishop Davenport run for 3 yds to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
18.9%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 6 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+2
11.6%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+2
11.5%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
11.1%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 3 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 7
OPP 38
-2
11.1%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 40Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+2
3.3%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 5:16
Bishop Davenport run for 3 yds to the UthSt 41
-14.1
TD · Q3 7:34
Bishop Davenport run for 4 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)
-11.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 6:54
Giles Pooler pass incomplete
+8.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com