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AF

Air Force 42 at UNLV 7

UNLV
2022 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2022 · Allegiant Stadium
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Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:27 · Marshall Nichols punt for 38 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 27Home team on offense−4.2Pregame prior−23.5Score differential−2.1Garbage-time factor−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:57: John Lee Eldridge III 60 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick) — AF win probability +18.6 pts (now 76%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 5:52: Brad Roberts 5 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick) — AF win probability +3.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 13:42: Brad Roberts 5 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick) — AF win probability +7.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:16: Brad Roberts 3 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick) — AF win probability +6.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:41: Emmanuel Michel 1 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick) — AF win probability +1.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 4 of 4AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 4:27UNLV 4th & 9 at UNLV 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  2. Q2 9:40UNLV 4th & 8 at UNLV 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 2:37AF 4th & 17 at UNLV 42, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%−0.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    88.4%−<0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.4%
    average punt
  4. Q3 0:10UNLV 4th & 5 at UNLV 33, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  5. Q4 15:00AF 4th & 1 at AF 44, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.2%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q4 6:34AF 4th & 2 at UNLV 46, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−0.2
    23% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q4 3:17UNLV 4th & 3 at AF 35, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 7:57AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:52AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:42AF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:16AF Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:41AF Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNLVDrive 1FUMBLE
18 plays · 57 yds · 9:5126% → 33%
Q1 9:51
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+3
26.2%
Cameron Friel run for 3 yds to the AFA 19 Cameron Friel fumbled, recovered by AFA Jayden GoodwinSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
30.9%
Aidan Robbins run for 4 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
31.1%
Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+22
30.5%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Aidan Robbins for 22 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
32.3%
Aidan Robbins run for 8 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+9
32.4%
Aidan Robbins run for 9 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
32.7%
Aidan Robbins run for 4 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+7
32.7%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Ricky White for 7 yds to the AFA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
32.7%
Aidan Robbins run for 3 yds to the AFA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2TD
4 plays · 81 yds · 7:5776% → 75%
Q1 7:57
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+60
23.8%
John Lee Eldridge III 60 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
25.3%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+14
25.1%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 14 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
24.8%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3TD
4 plays · 18 yds · 5:5279% → 80%
Q1 5:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
21.4%
Brad Roberts 5 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
20.3%
Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the UNLV 12Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+4
20.3%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the UNLV 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
20.3%
DeAndre Hughes run for 3 yds to the UNLV 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 4:2722% → 21%
Q1 4:27
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
22.3%
Marshall Nichols punt for 38 ydsSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
21.5%
Cameron Friel pass incomplete to Nick Williams, broken up by TD BlackmonSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
21.5%
Aidan Robbins run for 3 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-2
21.4%
Cameron Friel sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5TD
11 plays · 64 yds · 1:1879% → 87%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
20.7%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+6
20.5%
Zac Larrier run for 6 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
20.4%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 10 yds to the UNLV 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
20.4%
Emmanuel Michel run for 7 yds to the UNLV 36Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+4
20.3%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the UNLV 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
20.4%
Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the UNLV 26Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+6
20.4%
Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the UNLV 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
20.3%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the UNLV 19Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+14
20.3%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 14 yds to the UNLV 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
20.3%
Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
13.4%
Brad Roberts 5 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 6Uncategorized
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
11.0%
Aidan Robbins run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7TD
1 play · 16 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 11:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
12.3%
Brad Roberts 3 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 8PUNT
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 9:40
4TH & 8
OWN 31
0
14.0%
Marshall Nichols punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9PUNT
1 play · 31 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 2:37
4TH & 17
OPP 42
0
10.3%
Carson Bay punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 10TD
4 plays · 89 yds · 0:5112% → 13%
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
12.3%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Jordan Younge-Humphrey for 8 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+8
13.0%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Senika McKie for 8 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
12.8%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Shelton Zeon III for 13 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
13.1%
Ricky White 31 Yd pass from Cameron Friel (Daniel Gutierrez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11END OF HALF
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:0492% → 92%
Q2 0:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
8.4%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
8.8%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
8.2%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to John Lee Eldridge III, broken up by Nohl WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-1
8.3%
Haaziq Daniels run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 8:1698% → 99%
Q3 8:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
1.7%
Brad Roberts 3 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+7
0.6%
Brad Roberts run for 7 yds to the UNLV 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
0.6%
Brad Roberts run for 8 yds to the UNLV 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13INT
1 play · 16 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
2.4%
Cameron Friel pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14TD
1 play · 38 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 1:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.6%
Emmanuel Michel 1 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 15PUNT
1 play · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 0:10
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
0.4%
Marshall Nichols punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16DOWNS
13 plays · 42 yds · 8:2699% → 100%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+3
0.7%
Omar Fattah run for 3 yds to the AFA 20Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+5
0.7%
Omar Fattah run for 5 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.7%
Owen Burk run for 5 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
0.7%
Owen Burk run for 3 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
0.7%
Owen Burk run for 2 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
0.7%
Owen Burk run for 4 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+3
0.6%
Owen Burk run for 3 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+2
0.6%
Owen Burk run for 2 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+2
0.7%
Owen Burk run for 2 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
0.6%
Jensen Jones run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
50
+2
0.6%
Owen Burk run for 2 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+2
0.6%
Owen Burk run for 2 yds to the UNLV 46Similar
Q4 6:34
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
0.3%
pass incomplete to Aiden CalvertSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 17DOWNS
4 plays · 19 yds · 3:170% → 0%
Q4 3:17
4TH & 3
OPP 35
0
0.1%
pass incomplete to Senika McKieSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
0.1%
Courtney Reese run for 5 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+3
0.1%
Jordan Younge-Humphrey run for 3 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+3
0.1%
Courtney Reese run for 3 yds to the AFA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18Uncategorized
3 plays · 35 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
0.1%
Aiden Calvert run for 9 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+9
0.1%
Owen Burk run for 9 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
0.1%
Owen Burk run for 2 yds to the UNLV 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 7:57
John Lee Eldridge III 60 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)
-18.6
TD · Q2 13:42
Brad Roberts 5 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)
-7
TD · Q3 8:16
Brad Roberts 3 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)
-6.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com