2022 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2022 · CEFCU Stadium
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Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadUNLV aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreUNLV score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:50 · Taren Schive 25 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 7:27: Kairee Robinson run for 9 yds for a TD, (Taren Schive KICK) — SJSU win probability +2.2 pts (now 72%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:09: Chevan Cordeiro run for 10 yds for a TD, (Taren Schive KICK) — SJSU win probability +5.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:13: Chevan Cordeiro run for 15 yds for a TD, (Taren Schive PAT MISSED) — SJSU win probability +9.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 11:50: Taren Schive 25 yd FG GOOD — SJSU win probability +3.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:09: Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 22 yds for a TD, (Taren Schive KICK) — SJSU win probability +1.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5UNLV made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 13:02UNLV 4th & 18 at SJSU 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 32.1% before the snapGo for it32.0%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.1%average punt
- Q1 6:32UNLV 4th & 13 at UNLV 21, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snapGo for it29.5%−0.519% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.9%average punt
- Q1 5:10SJSU 4th & 3 at SJSU 37, up 7Close callPunted · 69.8% before the snapGo for it70.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.9%−0.1average punt
- Q1 3:51UNLV 4th & 4 at UNLV 46, down 7Close callPunted · 29.8% before the snapGo for it29.9%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.8%−0.1average punt
- Q2 6:46UNLV 4th & 6 at SJSU 6, down 20Close callWent for it · 12.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.2%−0.231% to convertField goal11.4%91% to makePunt6.1%−5.3average punt
- Q2 1:34SJSU 4th & 15 at UNLV 26, up 20Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.4% before the snapGo for it91.3%−1.116% to convertField goalTheir call92.4%64% to makePunt89.7%−2.8average punt
- Q2 0:52UNLV 4th & 10 at UNLV 41, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snapGo for it7.5%−0.429% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.9%average punt
- Q3 11:50SJSU 4th & 8 at UNLV 8, up 23Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.2% before the snapGo for it93.7%−0.226% to convertField goalTheir call94.0%90% to makePunt91.4%−2.5average punt
- Q3 9:50UNLV 4th & 7 at UNLV 18, down 26Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.535% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q4 15:00SJSU 4th & 3 at SJSU 49, up 26Close callPunted · 99.3% before the snapGo for it99.5%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.3%−0.2average punt
- Q4 14:23UNLV 4th & 6 at UNLV 20, down 26Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 3:54SJSU 4th & 4 at SJSU 33, up 33Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SJSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UNLV made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 7:27SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.3%97% to makeGo for two69.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:09SJSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.4%97% to makeGo for two76.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:13SJSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call86.5%97% to makeGo for two86.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:09SJSU Touchdown, up 32 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:52UNLV Touchdown, down 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.7%97% to makeGo for two0.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:28SJSU Touchdown, up 32 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUNLVDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 27 yds · 1:5830% → 30%
SJSUDrive 2TD12 plays · 76 yds · 5:2770% → 72%
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
69.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 5 yds to the SJSt 29Similar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+6
69.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 6 yds to the SJSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+12
69.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 12 yds to the UNLV 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 3PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:4829% → 28%
Q1 6:32
4TH & 13
OWN 21
0
71.8%
Marshall Nichols punt for 49 yds , Shamar Garrett returns for no gain to the SJSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1671% → 71%
UNLVDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1429% → 28%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 6TD14 plays · 80 yds · 5:3472% → 79%
Q1 3:24
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+21
71.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 21 yds to the SJSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
72.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Malikhi Miller for 6 yds to the UNLV 49Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+9
72.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 9 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-8
73.0%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Elijah Shelton for a loss of 8 yards to the UNLV 36Similar
Q1 0:11
2ND & 18
OPP 36
+16
72.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 16 yds to the UNLV 20Similar
Q2 14:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
73.2%
ROBINSON, Kairee rush to the left for a gain of 8 yards to the NLV10 (THOMPKINS, Fred;SHELTON, Elijah), 1ST DOWN. PENALTY SJS Holding on WILLIAMS, Malik NLV Targeting on THOMPKINS, Fred , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 7FUMBLE2 plays · -10 yds · 0:2824% → 24%
SJSUDrive 8TD1 play · 15 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
85.6%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 15 yds for a TD, (Taren Schive PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 9DOWNS10 plays · 74 yds · 5:2714% → 13%
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
85.6%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Senika McKie for 3 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+16
85.8%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Nick Williams for 16 yds to the UNLV 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 13
OWN 41
+14
87.3%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Shelton Zeon III for 14 yds to the SJSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+38
86.3%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Senika McKie for 38 yds to the SJSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-4
87.2%
Cameron Friel sacked by Cade Hall for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSt 6Similar
Q2 6:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
87.5%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Nick Williams for 5 yds to the SJSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 10FG11 plays · 73 yds · 5:0188% → 93%
Q2 4:30
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+5
90.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 5 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+14
91.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 14 yds to the UNLV 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 6
OPP 17
-9
91.7%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Austin Ajiake for a loss of 9 yards to the UNLV 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 0:429% → 8%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
91.4%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Aidan Robbins for 8 yds to the UNLV 37Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+4
90.8%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Nick Williams for 4 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
92.0%
Marshall Nichols punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Shamar Garrett at the SJSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:4694% → 94%
SJSUDrive 13FG9 plays · 54 yds · 3:0694% → 98%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+27
93.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Shamar Garrett for 27 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
93.8%
CORDEIRO, Chevan pass up the middle incomplete intended for COOKS, Elijah thrown to the NLV22. PENALTY NLV Pass Interference on WILLIAMS, Nohl enforced at the spot of the foul for 10 yards to the NLV25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
93.6%
CORDEIRO, Chevan pass to the left incomplete intended for ROSS, Charles thrown to the NLV0. PENALTY NLV Pass Interference on WILLIAMS, Jerrae enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards to the NLV7 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-4
93.8%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Darius Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:593% → 1%
SJSUDrive 15TD3 plays · 62 yds · 1:2898% → 99%
UNLVDrive 16TD11 plays · 71 yds · 5:171% → 1%
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
99.3%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Elijah Wood) to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
99.3%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Ricky White for 6 yds to the SJSt 47Similar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+18
99.4%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Ricky White for 18 yds to the SJSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
99.4%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Ricky White for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 26Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+11
99.6%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Aidan Robbins for 11 yds to the SJSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+14
99.4%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Senika McKie for 14 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 2:4599% → 99%
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
99.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Skylar Loving-Black for 6 yds to the SJSt 48Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 49
-2
99.5%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Austin Ajiake for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 49Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
99.4%
Travis Benham punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Nohl Williams at the UNLV 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:320% → 0%
SJSUDrive 19TD8 plays · 60 yds · 4:31100% → 100%
Q4 13:59
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-10
99.6%
CORDEIRO, Chevan pass to the right complete for 8 yards to COOKS, Elijah caught at the SJS38 and advanced to the SJS49 (WILLIAMS, Jerrae;MORGAN, Jordyn). PENALTY SJS Illegal Block in the Back enforced 10 yards from the SJS41 to the SJS31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 19
OWN 31
+4
99.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Malikhi Miller for 4 yds to the SJSt 35Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+14
99.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 14 yds to the UNLV 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
99.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 20 yds for a TD, (Taren Schive KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 20PUNT9 plays · -8 yds · 3:030% → 0%
Q4 8:13
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+10
100.0%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Kaleo Ballungay for 10 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-15
100.0%
(07:29) FRIEL, Cameron pass up the middle incomplete intended for MCKIE, Senika thrown to the SJS15. PENALTY NLV Pass Interference on MCKIE, Senika enforced 15 yards to the NLV32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 2:18100% → 100%
Q4 3:54
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Alex Weir punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Nohl Williams at the UNLV 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 22END OF GAME7 plays · 22 yds · 3:170% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:13
Chevan Cordeiro run for 15 yds for a TD, (Taren Schive PAT MISSED)
+9.2
TD · Q2 13:09
Chevan Cordeiro run for 10 yds for a TD, (Taren Schive KICK)
+5.2
FG · Q3 11:50
Taren Schive 25 yd FG GOOD
+3.8