2022 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2022 · University Stadium (NM)
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Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadWYO aheadconfidence bandkey playUNM scoreWYO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:21 · Aaron Rodriguez punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Wyatt Wieland at the Wyom 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:17: Justin Holaday run for 8 yds for a TD, (George Steinkamp KICK) — UNM win probability +5.9 pts (now 57%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:08: Andrew Peasley pass complete to Treyton Welch for 47 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +7.2 pts (now 46%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:32: Andrew Peasley pass complete to Treyton Welch for 29 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +17.1 pts (now 57%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- FG · Q4 8:42: John Hoyland 19 yd FG GOOD — WYO win probability +6.9 pts (now 76%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:09: Cameron Stone 38 Yd Interception Return (John Hoyland Kick) — WYO win probability +12.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UNM made the numbers' call on 7 of 9WYO made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
- Q1 10:42UNM 4th & 1 at WYO 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call45.1%71% to convertField goal44.9%−0.258% to makePunt44.5%−0.7average punt
- Q1 6:31WYO 4th & 3 at WYO 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.6% before the snapGo for it50.7%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.8%average punt
- Q2 14:58WYO 4th & 14 at WYO 47, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.0% before the snapGo for it40.2%−1.619% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.8%average punt
- Q2 12:17UNM 4th & 4 at UNM 37, up 14Close callPunted · 62.6% before the snapGo for it63.0%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.7%−0.3average punt
- Q2 8:33UNM 4th & 5 at UNM 35, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snapGo for it56.2%−0.641% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.9%average punt
- Q2 5:04WYO 4th & 8 at UNM 49, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snapGo for it40.0%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.1%average punt
- Q2 3:25UNM 4th & 15 at UNM 15, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snapGo for it57.1%−3.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.3%average punt
- Q2 1:47WYO 4th & 9 at midfield, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snapGo for it37.3%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.4%average punt
- Q3 9:20UNM 4th & 13 at UNM 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snapGo for it47.6%−4.619% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.2%average punt
- Q3 7:36WYO 4th & 11 at WYO 39, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snapGo for it47.5%−2.426% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.9%average punt
- Q3 6:09WYO 4th & 7 at UNM 10, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.4% before the snapGo for it49.9%−1.031% to convertField goalTheir call50.8%88% to makePunt39.4%−11.4average punt
- Q3 4:03UNM 4th & 7 at UNM 45, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.4% before the snapGo for it43.3%−1.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.4%average punt
- Q3 2:32WYO 4th & 13 at WYO 7, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snapGo for it50.8%−5.218% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.0%average punt
- Q3 0:14UNM 4th & 3 at WYO 5, down 3Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 46.2% before the snapGo for it46.4%45% to convertField goalTheir call44.1%−2.392% to makePunt30.5%−15.9average punt
- Q4 14:08WYO 4th & 7 at WYO 23, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.0% before the snapGo for it55.2%−2.835% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.0%average punt
- Q4 12:21UNM 4th & 12 at UNM 27, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snapGo for it36.2%−3.622% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.8%average punt
- Q4 8:42WYO 4th & 2 at UNM 2, up 3Numbers favored go for it by 4.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 67.6% before the snapGo for it68.5%48% to convertField goalTheir call63.9%−4.694% to makePunt45.4%−23.1average punt
- Q4 6:27UNM 4th & 11 at UNM 20, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snapGo for it20.1%−0.725% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.8%average punt
- Q4 2:57WYO 4th & 2 at UNM 37, up 6Numbers favored go for it by 3.5 ptsPunted · 86.5% before the snapGo for it86.0%57% to convertField goal83.7%−2.440% to makePuntTheir call82.5%−3.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WYO made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 7:52UNM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call47.9%97% to makeGo for two47.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:17UNM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.0%97% to makeGo for two56.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:08WYO Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call43.8%97% to makeGo for two43.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:32WYO Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call45.9%97% to makeGo for two45.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:09WYO Touchdown, up 12 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call95.7%−0.697% to makeGo for two96.3%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUNMDrive 1TD17 plays · 75 yds · 7:0743% → 49%
Q1 9:38
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+9
45.0%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Bobby Wooden for 9 yds to the Wyom 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 2PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0852% → 51%
Q1 6:31
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+11
48.7%
Clayton Stewart punt for 46 yds , Jer'Marius Lewis returns for 11 yds to the NMex 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3TD6 plays · 67 yds · 3:0649% → 57%
WYODrive 4PUNT8 plays · 30 yds · 3:1045% → 42%
Q1 2:15
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+15
55.0%
(02:15) PEASLEY, Andrew pass to the right incomplete intended for BROWN, Alex broken up by HAULCY, A.J. at the UNM25, clock 02:10. PENALTY UNM Roughing the Passer on WILSON, Ronald enforced 15 yards from the WYO36 to the UNM49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 2:3360% → 62%
WYODrive 6TD7 plays · 82 yds · 2:0639% → 46%
UNMDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2256% → 56%
WYODrive 8PUNT9 plays · 29 yds · 3:2444% → 41%
UNMDrive 9PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 1:3060% → 59%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
60.3%
Miles Kendrick sacked by Braden Siders for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 18Similar
Q2 3:35
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-7
60.1%
Miles Kendrick sacked by Oluwaseyi Omotosho for a loss of 7 yards to the NMex 15Similar
Q2 3:25
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
59.1%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Wyatt Wieland at the Wyom 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 10PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3242% → 39%
Q2 1:47
4TH & 9
50
0
61.3%
Clayton Stewart punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Andrew Erickson at the NMex 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11MISSED FG13 plays · 56 yds · 1:3662% → 64%
WYODrive 12TD10 plays · 75 yds · 14:4738% → 55%
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
60.1%
(13:10) SWEN, Titus rush to the right for a gain of 4 yards to the UNM35 (REED II, Jerrick;HANNAH, Reco), clock 13:03. PENALTY UNM Offsides on SALTONSTALL, Jake enforced 5 yards from the UNM39 to the UNM34 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
43.5%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Treyton Welch for 29 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK)Similar
Q3 0:11
3RD & 2
OPP 31
0
45.2%
PENALTY WYO Personal Foul on CRUM, Frank UNM Unsportsmanlike Conduct on SALTONSTALL, Jake UNM Unsportsmanlike Conduct on HUNTER, Dion , Offsetting penalties. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 2:1052% → 49%
Q3 10:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
51.4%
(10:54) JONES, Nate rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the UNM27 (BERTAGNOLE, Jordan;SIDERS, Braden), clock 10:51. PENALTY UNM Holding on MATAUTIA, Shannco enforced 10 yards from the UNM25 to the UNM15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+3
51.2%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Jah'Mar Sanders for 3 yds to the NMex 18Similar
Q3 9:20
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
49.4%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Wyatt Wieland at the Wyom 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 14PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:4053% → 49%
Q3 8:44
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-5
45.9%
Andrew Peasley sacked by Justin Harris for a loss of 5 yards to the Wyom 39Similar
Q3 8:17
3RD & 11
OWN 39
0
49.3%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Titus Swen for no gain to the Wyom 39Similar
Q3 7:36
4TH & 11
OWN 39
0
51.2%
Clayton Stewart punt for 46 yds , returns for no gain to the NMex 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 15FG5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1656% → 59%
Q3 6:48
2ND & 7
OPP 10
0
43.7%
(06:48) QB Keeper PEASLEY, Andrew rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the UNM10, End of Play, clock 06:43. PENALTY UNM Offsides on ODUMS, A.J. WYO Holding on O'BRIEN, Colin , Offsetting penalties [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 2:0444% → 43%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 17PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2559% → 55%
UNMDrive 18MISSED FG5 plays · 7 yds · 2:0251% → 46%
Q3 0:58
3RD & 3
OPP 5
-10
48.7%
(00:58) KENDRICK, Miles scrambles up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the WYO4 (BERTAGNOLE, Jordan), clock 00:50. PENALTY UNM Holding on DENNIS, Will enforced 10 yards from the WYO5 to the WYO15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 19PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0359% → 56%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 20PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 1:4146% → 41%
WYODrive 21FG9 plays · 74 yds · 3:3061% → 76%
Q4 11:31
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+6
38.9%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Treyton Welch for 6 yds to the Wyom 30Similar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+43
36.6%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Titus Swen for 43 yds to the NMex 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
31.4%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Parker Christensen for 8 yds to the NMex 19 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO Penalty, Personal Foul (Dion Hunter) to the NMex 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
31.2%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Colin O'Brien for 6 yds to the NMex 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 22PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 2:0534% → 27%
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
34.3%
(08:32) KENDRICK, Miles pass to the right incomplete intended for QUEEN, Elijah thrown to the UNM24, clock 08:30. PENALTY UNM Pass Interference on ERICKSON, Andrew enforced half the distance from the goal, 10 yards to the UNM11 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:27
1ST & 20
OWN 11
-6
34.0%
Miles Kendrick sacked by Gavin Meyer for a loss of 6 yards to the NMex 5Similar
Q4 6:27
4TH & 11
OWN 20
0
27.1%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Wyatt Wieland at the Wyom 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 23PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 3:2181% → 86%
Q4 5:04
3RD & 3
50
+5
17.0%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Treyton Welch for 5 yds to the NMex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 24INT TD7 plays · 26 yds · 1:3725% → 3%
UNMDrive 25INT7 plays · 22 yds · 0:484% → 3%
WYODrive 26END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.5%
(00:01) Kneel down by PEASLEY, Andrew at WYO24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:32
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Treyton Welch for 29 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK)
-17.1
TD · Q4 1:09
Cameron Stone 38 Yd Interception Return (John Hoyland Kick)
-12.5
TD · Q2 10:08
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Treyton Welch for 47 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK)
-7.2