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CSU

Colorado State 17 at Nevada 14

NEV
2022 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2022 · Mackay Stadium
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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:24 · Matt Freem punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tory Horton at the ColSt 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 24Home team on offense−1.5Score differential−0.4Pregame prior+5.3Garbage-time factor−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:14: Toa Taua 4 Yd Run (Matthew Killam Kick) — NEV win probability +11.9 pts (now 47%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 1:33: Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the Nevad 24 — NEV win probability +8.1 pts (now 36%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:53: Toa Taua run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew Killam KICK) — NEV win probability +34.7 pts (now 65%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:01: Timeout NEVADA, clock 00:01 — CSU win probability +8.7 pts (now 62%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Michael Boyle 43 yd FG GOOD — CSU win probability +33.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 8 of 10CSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 13:00CSU 4th & 3 at CSU 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:47NEV 4th & 9 at NEV 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:24NEV 4th & 12 at NEV 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:17CSU 4th & 11 at CSU 19, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%−1.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:40NEV 4th & 1 at CSU 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    40.9%−3.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    42.0%−2.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:01CSU 4th & 11 at NEV 40, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    59.9%−0.3
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:53NEV 4th & 6 at CSU 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    35.5%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    34.5%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:30NEV 4th & 6 at NEV 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−1.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:43CSU 4th & 12 at NEV 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    61.1%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:22NEV 4th & 9 at NEV 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−2.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:17CSU 4th & 1 at CSU 45, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsPunted · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.9%−2.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:40NEV 4th & 7 at NEV 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−2.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:04NEV 4th & 12 at NEV 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−3.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:34CSU 4th & 9 at CSU 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%−2.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:38CSU 4th & 9 at CSU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−1.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:41NEV 4th & 8 at CSU 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    52.9%−4.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.6%−0.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:11CSU 4th & 5 at CSU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−5.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:17NEV 4th & 6 at NEV 39, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.3%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:03CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:44CSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:14NEV Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:53NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5044% → 44%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
56.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 1 yd to the ColSt 21Similar
Q1 14:43
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+7
56.1%
Avery Morrow run for 7 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-1
56.2%
Avery Morrow run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 27Similar
Q1 13:00
4TH & 3
OWN 27
-2
56.4%
Paddy Turner punt for 50 yds , Bentlee Sanders returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4356% → 56%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
56.3%
Nate Cox pass complete to BJ Casteel for 7 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 3
OWN 28
-6
56.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the Nevad 22 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Nevad Nate CoxSimilar
Q1 11:59
3RD & 9
OWN 22
0
56.2%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Darion Green-WarrenSimilar
Q1 11:47
4TH & 9
OWN 22
0
56.1%
Matt Freem punt for 47 yds, downed at the ColSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3INT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:0044% → 44%
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
56.3%
COLORADO ST Penalty, False Start (Louis Brown) to the ColSt 26Similar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+9
56.4%
Avery Morrow run for 9 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
56.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Tory HortonSimilar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+15
56.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Tory Horton for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Devonte Lee) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
50
0
55.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Justice McCoySimilar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 10
50
-8
55.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi sacked by Drue Watts for a loss of 8 yards to the ColSt 42Similar
Q1 9:47
3RD & 18
OWN 42
0
56.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass intercepted Bentlee Sanders return for no gain to the Nevad 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4INT TD
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:3857% → 54%
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
56.5%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 20Similar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 8
OWN 20
-21
54.3%
Ayden Hector 21 Yd Interception Return (Michael Boyle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:3554% → 53%
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
54.1%
Toa Taua run for 15 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
54.4%
Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
54.5%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Dalevon CampbellSimilar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 6
OWN 44
-6
54.2%
Nate Cox sacked by CJ Onyechi for a loss of 6 yards to the Nevad 38Similar
Q1 7:24
4TH & 12
OWN 38
0
53.2%
Matt Freem punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tory Horton at the ColSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6INT
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:5547% → 48%
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
53.3%
Avery Morrow run for 11 yds to the ColSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
52.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Tory HortonSimilar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
53.0%
Avery Morrow run for no gain to the ColSt 33Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+10
53.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 10 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
51.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass intercepted Tyriq Mack return for 3 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7FUMBLE RETURN TD
4 plays · 19 yds · 1:4053% → 49%
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
53.1%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the Nevad 31 NEVADA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Isaiah World) to the Nevad 21Similar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 20
OWN 21
+7
52.7%
Devonte Lee run for 7 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+24
52.7%
Nate Cox pass complete to Jacob Munro for 24 yds to the ColSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+50
48.7%
Mukendi Wa-Kalonji 50 Yd Fumble Return (Michael Boyle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8MISSED FG
14 plays · 44 yds · 4:2948% → 46%
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
47.5%
Nate Cox pass complete to BJ Casteel for no gain to the Nevad 25Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+18
46.9%
Nate Cox run for 18 yds to the Nevad 43 Nate Cox fumbled, forced by Henry Blackburn, recovered by Nevad Nate Cox for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
47.7%
Toa Taua run for 8 yds to the ColSt 49Similar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+21
47.9%
Nate Cox pass complete to BJ Casteel for 21 yds to the ColSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
48.0%
BJ Casteel run for no gain to the ColSt 28Similar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+12
47.8%
Nate Cox pass complete to Jacob Munro for 12 yds to the ColSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-10
47.8%
NEVADA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Grant Starck) to the ColSt 26Similar
Q1 0:57
1ST & 20
OPP 26
-2
47.4%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 28Similar
Q1 0:24
2ND & 22
OPP 28
+23
46.9%
Nate Cox pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 23 yds to the ColSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
46.8%
Nate Cox run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 6Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-4
46.7%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 10Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
46.2%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Jamaal BellSimilar
Q2 14:09
4TH & 0
OPP 10
+28
45.9%
Matthew Killam 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:4757% → 58%
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
43.4%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the ColSt 21Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+5
42.6%
Avery Morrow run for 5 yds to the ColSt 26Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-10
42.6%
Fowler-Nicolosi, Brayden pass complete to Morrow, Avery for 3 yards to the COLORADOST29, PENALTY COLORADOST holding (Bailey, David) 10 yards to the COLORADOST19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
42.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Tory HortonSimilar
Q2 12:17
4TH & 11
OWN 19
+2
42.5%
Paddy Turner punt for 46 yds , Bentlee Sanders returns for 2 yds to the Nevad 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10DOWNS
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:3143% → 41%
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
43.2%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Jamaal BellSimilar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+10
42.8%
Toa Taua run for 10 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
43.0%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 7
50
+5
42.5%
Devonte Lee run for 5 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
Q2 10:19
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+1
42.1%
Devonte Lee run for 1 yd to the ColSt 44Similar
Q2 9:40
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
41.0%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the ColSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:3363% → 63%
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
37.3%
Tory Horton run for 9 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+8
36.6%
Avery Morrow run for 23 yds to the Nevad 24 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
36.5%
A'Jon Vivens run for 1 yd to the Nevad 38Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 9
OPP 38
-2
36.0%
A'Jon Vivens run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 40Similar
Q2 7:12
3RD & 11
OPP 40
0
35.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q2 7:01
4TH & 11
OPP 40
0
36.6%
Paddy Turner punt for 39 yds, downed at the Nevad 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12TD
22 plays · 99 yds · 6:4337% → 47%
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
36.7%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 3Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+2
36.2%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 5Similar
Q2 5:32
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+6
35.2%
Nate Cox run for 6 yds to the Nevad 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
35.5%
Lee, Devonte rush for no gain to the NEVADA11, PENALTY COLORADOST offside 5 yards to the NEVADA16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:46
1ST & 5
OWN 16
+19
35.4%
Nate Cox pass complete to BJ Casteel for 19 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
35.3%
Nate Cox sacked by Troy Golden for a loss of 6 yards to the Nevad 29Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+20
34.4%
Nate Cox pass complete to Toa Taua for 5 yds to the Nevad 34 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Drew Kulick) to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
36.6%
Nate Cox pass complete to BJ Casteel for 14 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
36.0%
Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 6
OPP 33
0
36.0%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Jacob MunroSimilar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 6
OPP 33
0
35.0%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Jamaal BellSimilar
Q2 1:53
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+20
34.6%
Nate Cox pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 20 yds to the ColSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
36.3%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Dalevon CampbellSimilar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+4
36.2%
Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the ColSt 9Similar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+7
34.8%
Nate Cox pass complete to Devonte Lee for 7 yds to the ColSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 0
OPP 2
-5
37.6%
NEVADA Penalty, False Start (Zac Welch) to the ColSt 7Similar
Q2 0:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
36.1%
Devonte Lee run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 8Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
35.4%
Nate Cox pass complete to BJ Casteel for 4 yds to the ColSt 4Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
46.5%
Toa Taua 4 Yd Run (Matthew Killam Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
41.4%
Avery Morrow run for 3 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2642% → 40%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
42.3%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 23Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+2
42.1%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
40.8%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to BJ CasteelSimilar
Q3 13:30
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
39.9%
Matt Freem punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tory Horton at the ColSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 4:4761% → 62%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
38.8%
COLORADO ST Penalty, False Start (Tanner Arkin) to the ColSt 29Similar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 15
OWN 29
+14
39.8%
Avery Morrow run for 14 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+9
37.2%
Avery Morrow run for 9 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
36.2%
Avery Morrow run for 9 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+3
35.7%
A'Jon Vivens run for 3 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
35.6%
A'Jon Vivens run for 2 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 8
OPP 34
-5
34.7%
COLORADO ST Penalty, False Start (Gray Davis) to the Nevad 39Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 13
OPP 39
-4
35.5%
A'Jon Vivens run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nevad 43Similar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 17
OPP 43
+5
36.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 5 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
Q3 8:43
4TH & 12
OPP 38
0
37.6%
Paddy Turner punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Bentlee Sanders at the Nevad 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:1439% → 36%
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
38.8%
Toa Taua run for 9 yds to the Nevad 20Similar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 1
OWN 20
0
39.5%
Devonte Lee run for no gain to the Nevad 20Similar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+7
37.9%
Devonte Lee run for 7 yds to the Nevad 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
38.9%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 28Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
38.6%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Jamaal BellSimilar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
36.7%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Spencer CurtisSimilar
Q3 6:22
4TH & 9
OWN 28
+11
35.9%
Matt Freem punt for 37 yds , Tory Horton returns for 11 yds to the ColSt 39 COLORADO ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Jordan Williams) to the ColSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5666% → 67%
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
33.6%
Keegan Holles run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 34Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+1
35.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 1 yd to the ColSt 35Similar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+10
35.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 10 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
Q3 4:17
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
32.7%
Paddy Turner punt for 25 yds, downed at the Nevad 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3137% → 34%
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
37.4%
Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 6
OWN 34
-1
38.5%
Nate Cox run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 33Similar
Q3 2:54
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
35.7%
Nate Cox pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:40
4TH & 7
OWN 33
+28
34.2%
Matt Freem punt for 47 yds , Tory Horton returns for 28 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · 31 yds · 0:5971% → 72%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
29.3%
Avery Morrow run for 11 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+16
28.6%
Avery Morrow run for 16 yds to the Nevad 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
27.6%
Avery Morrow run for 4 yds to the Nevad 21 Avery Morrow fumbled, forced by Bentlee Sanders, recovered by Nevad Thomas WitteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:2936% → 30%
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
35.7%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the Nevad 24Similar
Q3 0:57
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+2
35.9%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
Q3 0:09
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+17
31.8%
Nate Cox pass complete to Devonte Lee for 17 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
35.7%
Nate Cox pass complete to BJ Casteel for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 41Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 12
OWN 41
0
33.8%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Jacob MunroSimilar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 12
OWN 41
0
31.7%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Jacob MunroSimilar
Q4 14:04
4TH & 12
OWN 41
+1
29.8%
Matt Freem punt for 44 yds , Tory Horton returns for 1 yd to the ColSt 42 COLORADO ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Justice McCoy) to the ColSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:2372% → 72%
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
28.1%
Avery Morrow run for 3 yds to the ColSt 11Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+11
27.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tanner Arkin for 11 yds to the ColSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
27.0%
Avery Morrow run for 8 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 2
OWN 30
-15
25.4%
Morrow, Avery rush for 1 yard to the COLORADOST31, PENALTY COLORADOST personal foul (Gardner, Jacob) 15 yards to the COLORADOST15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 17
OWN 15
+8
27.1%
Avery Morrow run for 8 yds to the ColSt 23Similar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 9
OWN 23
0
27.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for no gain to the ColSt 23Similar
Q4 10:34
4TH & 9
OWN 23
+27
27.9%
Paddy Turner punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Bentlee Sanders at the NEVADA 35 COLORADO ST Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Greg Laday) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 22TD
7 plays · 50 yds · 1:3633% → 65%
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
50
+29
32.7%
Nate Cox pass complete to Toa Taua for 29 yds to the ColSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-10
35.3%
Cox, Nate pass incomplete to Casteel, BJ, PENALTY NEVADA holding (Welch, Zac) 10 yards to the COLORADOST31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 20
OPP 31
+10
34.0%
Nate Cox pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 10 yds to the ColSt 21Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
35.6%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Dalevon CampbellSimilar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+6
33.0%
Nate Cox pass complete to Toa Taua for 6 yds to the ColSt 15Similar
Q4 8:57
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+13
30.2%
Cox, Nate pass incomplete to Campbell, Dalevon, PENALTY COLORADOST pass interference (Anusiem, Chigozie) 13 yards to the COLORADOST2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NEVADA.Similar
Q4 8:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
64.9%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew Killam KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:0847% → 46%
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
53.0%
Avery Morrow run for 8 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+14
50.0%
Avery Morrow run for 14 yds to the ColSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
48.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Justus Ross-SimmonsSimilar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
48.9%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the ColSt 48Similar
Q4 6:46
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
50.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Tory HortonSimilar
Q4 6:38
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
53.8%
Paddy Turner punt for 27 yds, downed at the Nevad 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 24PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 1:5159% → 60%
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
59.1%
Nate Cox pass complete to BJ Casteel for 6 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
61.8%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Jacob MunroSimilar
Q4 6:09
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
58.4%
Nate Cox pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 4 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
60.1%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Jamaal BellSimilar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
60.0%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to BJ CasteelSimilar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+18
57.3%
Nate Cox pass complete to BJ Casteel for 18 yds to the ColSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
65.1%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Jamaal BellSimilar
Q4 5:26
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
64.6%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
Q4 4:48
3RD & 8
OPP 45
0
63.9%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to BJ CasteelSimilar
Q4 4:41
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
59.9%
Matt Freem punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Tory Horton at the ColSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2648% → 44%
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
52.5%
Avery Morrow run for 4 yds to the ColSt 14Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+1
52.4%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the ColSt 15Similar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 5
OWN 15
0
53.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Justus Ross-SimmonsSimilar
Q4 3:11
4TH & 5
OWN 15
0
56.1%
Paddy Turner punt for 50 yds, downed at the Nevad 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4860% → 59%
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
60.3%
Nate Cox run for 4 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
64.0%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Jacob MunroSimilar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
60.3%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Dalevon CampbellSimilar
Q4 2:17
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
58.9%
Matt Freem punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tory Horton at the ColSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 27END OF GAME
11 plays · 53 yds · 2:0349% → 95%
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+16
51.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 16 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
49.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Justice McCoySimilar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+26
50.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 26 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
43.5%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the Nevad 36Similar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 9
OPP 36
-1
43.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 37Similar
Q4 0:37
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+6
45.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 6 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q4 0:01
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+5
46.9%
Boyle, Michael field goal attempt from 48 MISSED - wide left, spot at NEVADA31, clock 00:01, PENALTY NEVADA running into kicker 5 yards to the NEVADA26, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN COLORADOST.Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+43
4.7%
Michael Boyle 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:53
Toa Taua run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew Killam KICK)
+34.7
FG · Q4 0:00
Michael Boyle 43 yd FG GOOD
-33.5
TD · Q2 0:14
Toa Taua 4 Yd Run (Matthew Killam Kick)
+11.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com