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AF

Air Force 27 at Utah State 34

USU
2022 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2022 · Maverik Stadium
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Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · [NH] Kneel down by LEGAS, Cooper at AFA48 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 1:45: Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 21 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK) — USU win probability +24.0 pts (now 60%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:33: Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Amari Terry for 40 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +24.6 pts (now 75%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:15: Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 34 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK) — USU win probability +28.4 pts (now 66%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:00: Cooper Legas run for 32 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK) — USU win probability +18.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 1:42: Matthew Dapore 51 yd FG GOOD — AF win probability +6.8 pts (now 10%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:59AF 4th & 9 at AF 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:18USU 4th & 6 at AF 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    29.4%−1.8
    average punt
  3. Q2 7:02AF 4th & 1 at USU 1, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    60.0%−2.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    54.1%−8.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:41USU 4th & 6 at AF 13, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.4%
    85% to make
    Punt
    27.2%−5.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:10AF 4th & 5 at AF 17, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%−1.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:31USU 4th & 15 at USU 8, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−2.8
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:49AF 4th & 4 at USU 35, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    63.6%−1.5
    45% to make
    Punt
    62.6%−2.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:59AF 4th & 6 at USU 23, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    53.5%−8.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:53USU 4th & 1 at AF 24, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    33.7%−2.9
    68% to make
    Punt
    25.3%−11.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:15USU 4th & 4 at AF 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    33.6%−2.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    31.1%−4.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:25USU 4th & 14 at USU 12, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%−2.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:42AF 4th & 4 at USU 32, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.4%−1.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−1.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:29USU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:51AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:02AF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:45USU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:33AF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:15USU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.3%−0.7
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:00USU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.9%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 3:0178% → 77%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
21.7%
Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the AFA 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
21.7%
Haaziq Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+11
21.7%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Engel for 11 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
21.7%
Haaziq Daniels run for 6 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 43
0
21.7%
Brad Roberts run for no gain to the AFA 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 43
-5
21.7%
AIR FORCE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 38Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
21.7%
Haaziq Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:59
4TH & 9
OWN 38
+15
23.3%
Carson Bay punt for 49 yds , Cooper Jones returns for 15 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 2:3023% → 27%
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
23.3%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 4 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+10
23.3%
Cooper Legas run for 10 yds to the UthSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
23.4%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+1
23.4%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 1 yd to the UthSt 45Similar
Q1 11:59
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+14
23.3%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 14 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
23.5%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+10
23.5%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 10 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
26.7%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 31 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3TD
9 plays · 64 yds · 4:3474% → 74%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
26.0%
Brad Roberts run for 8 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+3
25.8%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
25.8%
Brad Roberts run for 7 yds to the UthSt 46Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+30
25.7%
Brad Roberts run for 30 yds to the UthSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
25.5%
Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the UthSt 11Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+3
25.5%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the UthSt 8Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+4
25.7%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the UthSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
25.5%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the UthSt 1Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
25.6%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4FG
10 plays · 62 yds · 3:3327% → 30%
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
26.9%
Terrell Vaughn run for 15 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+26
27.4%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 26 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
28.0%
Cooper Legas run for 1 yd to the AFA 33Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+2
28.0%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q1 4:51
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+14
27.7%
Cooper Legas run for 14 yds to the AFA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
28.0%
LEGAS, Cooper pass to the left incomplete intended for MCGRIFF, Justin thrown to the AFA0. PENALTY Before the snap, AFA Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the AFA17 to the AFA12. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:51
1ST & 5
OPP 12
+4
28.0%
Cooper Legas run for 4 yds to the AFA 8Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 1
OPP 8
0
28.0%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:51
3RD & 1
OPP 8
-5
27.7%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Calvin Tyler Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 13Similar
Q1 1:18
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+30
30.1%
Connor Coles 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 9:1670% → 73%
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
30.1%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
30.8%
Brad Roberts run for 8 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
30.5%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+4
30.2%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+10
30.0%
DANIELS, Haaziq pass to the right incomplete intended for CORMIER, David broken up by VONGPHACHANH, AJ at the USU37. PENALTY USU Holding on GRZESIAK, Daniel enforced 10 yards from the AFA42 to the USU48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
29.6%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the UthSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+4
29.6%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the UthSt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+6
29.8%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 6 yds to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
29.6%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 8 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 28
0
29.0%
Brad Roberts run for no gain to the UthSt 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+7
29.5%
Brad Roberts run for 7 yds to the UthSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
29.0%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the UthSt 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+8
29.0%
Brad Roberts run for 8 yds to the UthSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
29.0%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the UthSt 4Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
29.0%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the UthSt 3Similar
Q2 7:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
33.7%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the UthSt 1Similar
Q2 7:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
27.4%
Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6FG
10 plays · 64 yds · 4:1429% → 35%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
28.9%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the UthSt 25Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+7
28.8%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 7 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+36
29.5%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 36 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
32.3%
LEGAS, Cooper pass to the left incomplete intended for VAUGHN, Terrell broken up by GOFF, Camby at the AFA0. PENALTY AFA Pass Interference on GOFF, Camby enforced 15 yards to the AFA17 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-6
32.3%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 23Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 16
OPP 23
-5
31.0%
LEGAS, Cooper pass to the right complete for 16 yards to COBBS, Brian caught at the AFA15 and advanced to the AFA7 (TAYLOR, Trey). PENALTY USU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on SOUTH, Jacob enforced 5 yards from the AFA23 to the AFA28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 21
OPP 28
0
31.0%
Cooper Legas run for no gain to the AFA 28Similar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 21
OPP 28
+15
30.0%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 15 yds to the AFA 13Similar
Q2 2:41
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+30
34.8%
Connor Coles 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3168% → 66%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
31.7%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 15Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+2
32.2%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 2 yds to the AFA 17Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 5
OWN 17
0
33.1%
John Lee Eldridge III run for no gain to the AFA 17Similar
Q2 1:10
4TH & 5
OWN 17
0
34.4%
Carson Bay punt for 40 yds , Cooper Jones returns for no gain to the UthSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8INT
4 plays · 15 yds · 1:0233% → 34%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
32.7%
Cooper Legas run for 5 yds to the UthSt 48Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+11
33.2%
Cooper Legas pass complete to NyNy Davis for 11 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
33.7%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 42Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 11
OPP 42
0
33.7%
Cooper Legas pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
32.6%
Kneel down by DANIELS, Haaziq at AFA17 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:2335% → 34%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
35.2%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the UthSt 15Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 15
-13
35.3%
LEGAS, Cooper pass to the left complete for 13 yards to VAUGHN, Terrell caught at the USU13 and advanced to the USU28 (GOODWIN, Jayden;GOFF, Camby). PENALTY USU Personal Foul on LAPUAHO, Weylin enforced half the distance from the goal, 7 yards from the USU15 to the USU8 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 15
OWN 8
0
34.8%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for no gain to the UthSt 8Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 15
OWN 8
0
33.6%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:31
4TH & 15
OWN 8
0
33.7%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11FG
12 plays · 29 yds · 4:5069% → 69%
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
31.4%
Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the UthSt 46Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+5
30.6%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
31.0%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the UthSt 37Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+2
30.6%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q3 12:49
3RD & 4
OPP 35
-5
30.8%
AIR FORCE Penalty, False Start (David Cormier) to the UthSt 40Similar
Q3 12:49
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+5
31.5%
Haaziq Daniels run for 5 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q3 12:49
4TH & 4
OPP 35
+8
33.2%
Omar Fattah run for 8 yds to the UthSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
29.7%
Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the UthSt 26Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 9
OPP 26
0
30.0%
Haaziq Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:49
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+3
31.4%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the UthSt 23Similar
Q3 7:59
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+40
30.9%
Matthew Dapore 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 6:0833% → 60%
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
33.0%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Justin McGriff for 6 yds to the UthSt 26Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+7
33.6%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 7 yds to the UthSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
33.7%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Calvin Tyler Jr. for 6 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 4
OWN 39
-5
36.4%
Robert Briggs run for a loss of 5 yards to the UthSt 34Similar
Q3 7:53
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
32.4%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Jamari Bellamy) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
37.7%
Robert Briggs run for 7 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 3
OPP 37
-5
37.6%
UTAH ST Penalty, False Start (Justin McGriff) to the AFA 42Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 8
OPP 42
-7
37.5%
Cooper Legas run for a loss of 7 yards to the AFA 49Similar
Q3 7:53
3RD & 15
OPP 49
+16
33.2%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 16 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
39.5%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 6 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 4
OPP 27
-8
39.5%
Cooper Legas sacked by TD Blackmon for a loss of 8 yards to the AFA 35Similar
Q3 7:53
3RD & 12
OPP 35
+11
35.0%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 11 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q3 7:53
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+3
35.6%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 3 yds to the AFA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
59.7%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 21 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1246% → 75%
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
53.8%
Haaziq Daniels run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 21Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+8
54.7%
Haaziq Daniels run for 8 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
55.7%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 7 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
53.2%
AIR FORCE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 31Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+3
55.3%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 3 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+16
55.7%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+10
49.3%
Brad Roberts run for 10 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
24.8%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Amari Terry for 40 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1833% → 66%
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
32.8%
Cooper Legas pass complete to NyNy Davis for 4 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
33.3%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 7 yds to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
34.1%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 8 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+4
37.0%
Cooper Legas run for 4 yds to the UthSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
37.2%
Cooper Legas pass complete to NyNy Davis for 5 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+7
38.1%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 7 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
38.1%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 1 yd to the AFA 39Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+5
37.9%
Cooper Legas run for 5 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 4
OPP 34
0
37.7%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:15
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+34
66.1%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 34 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15FUMBLE
4 plays · 31 yds · 2:0640% → 40%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
60.4%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 26Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
60.6%
Brad Roberts run for no gain to the AFA 26Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+8
62.2%
DANIELS, Haaziq pass to the right complete for 8 yards to CORMIER, David to the AFA34 (GRAYSON, Andre). PENALTY USU Pass Interference on GRAYSON, Andre enforced at the spot of the foul for 8 yards to the AFA34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+22
59.8%
Jalen Johnson run for 22 yds to the UthSt 44 Jalen Johnson fumbled, recovered by UthSt Andre GraysonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16TD
3 plays · 56 yds · 1:0970% → 90%
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
70.3%
Cooper Legas run for 16 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
71.7%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 8 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+32
90.4%
Cooper Legas run for 32 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17INT
9 plays · 40 yds · 3:0912% → 12%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
88.2%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
87.5%
Haaziq Daniels run for 5 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
86.9%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 8 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
85.8%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Engel for 14 yds to the UthSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
85.0%
Haaziq Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+1
84.9%
Omar Fattah run for 1 yd to the UthSt 45Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+10
85.4%
Haaziq Daniels run for 10 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
83.8%
Haaziq Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
87.6%
Haaziq Daniels pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · -4 yds · 0:2192% → 94%
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
92.2%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for no gain to the UthSt 16Similar
Q4 3:46
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+1
91.9%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 1 yd to the UthSt 17Similar
Q4 3:41
3RD & 9
OWN 17
-5
92.6%
UTAH ST Penalty, False Start (Chandler Dolphin) to the UthSt 12Similar
Q4 3:36
3RD & 14
OWN 12
0
93.9%
Cooper Legas run for no gain to the UthSt 12Similar
Q4 3:25
4TH & 14
OWN 12
0
93.8%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 41 yds, downed at the AFA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19FG
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:435% → 10%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
94.7%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Caleb Rillos for 15 yds to the UthSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
94.2%
Haaziq Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-10
94.2%
DANIELS, Haaziq pass to the left incomplete intended for CORMIER, David thrown to the USU35. PENALTY AFA Holding on SMALLEY, Everett enforced 10 yards from the USU38 to the USU48 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 20
OPP 48
+1
95.1%
Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the UthSt 47Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 19
OPP 47
+15
96.5%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to David Cormier for 15 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q4 1:42
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+51
89.8%
Matthew Dapore 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 1:4198% → 98%
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
97.5%
[NH] Kneel down by LEGAS, Cooper at AFA46 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 11
OPP 46
0
97.4%
[NH] Kneel down by LEGAS, Cooper at AFA47 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 47
0
98.2%
[NH] Kneel down by LEGAS, Cooper at AFA48 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:15
Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 34 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)
+28.4
TD · Q4 13:33
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Amari Terry for 40 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)
-24.6
TD · Q3 1:45
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 21 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)
+24
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com