2022 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2022 · War Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · WYO
modelWYO aheadSJSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWYO scoreSJSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:41 · Taren Schive 26 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 5:11: Andrew Peasley pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 38 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +12.3 pts (now 48%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:16: Chevan Cordeiro run for 1 yd for a TD, (Taren Schive KICK) — SJSU win probability +11.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:43: Kairee Robinson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Taren Schive KICK) — SJSU win probability +11.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:02: Parker Christensen 13 Yd pass from Andrew Peasley (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — WYO win probability +12.1 pts (now 31%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:12: Chevan Cordeiro 18 Yd Run (Taren Schive Kick) — SJSU win probability +13.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WYO made the numbers' call on 8 of 9SJSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 13:44SJSU 4th & 4 at SJSU 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snapGo for it54.7%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.7%average punt
- Q1 11:41WYO 4th & 5 at SJSU 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.1% before the snapGo for it46.0%−<0.141% to convertField goalTheir call46.0%68% to makePunt45.6%−0.4average punt
- Q1 7:54SJSU 4th & 2 at SJSU 45, down 3Close callPunted · 52.5% before the snapGo for it52.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.4%−0.2average punt
- Q1 2:41SJSU 4th & 9 at WYO 9, down 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.5% before the snapGo for it51.0%−0.325% to convertField goalTheir call51.4%89% to makePunt49.2%−2.2average punt
- Q1 0:26WYO 4th & 10 at WYO 33, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.6% before the snapGo for it48.3%−0.629% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.0%average punt
- Q2 11:34SJSU 4th & 19 at WYO 23, down 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.6% before the snapGo for it47.3%−1.210% to convertField goalTheir call48.5%70% to makePunt45.6%−2.9average punt
- Q2 8:05WYO 4th & 1 at SJSU 39, down 2Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call48.7%70% to convertField goal45.7%−3.036% to makePunt45.7%−3.0average punt
- Q2 3:01SJSU 4th & 1 at WYO 45, up 2Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call54.6%70% to convertField goal50.6%−4.025% to makePunt51.3%−3.3average punt
- Q3 12:02WYO 4th & 6 at WYO 29, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snapGo for it22.0%−0.639% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.6%average punt
- Q3 9:42SJSU 4th & 6 at WYO 11, up 16Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.0% before the snapGo for it80.9%−0.435% to convertField goalTheir call81.3%87% to makePunt72.9%−8.5average punt
- Q3 4:28SJSU 4th & 9 at WYO 46, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.6% before the snapGo for it74.9%−0.832% to convertField goal73.5%−2.223% to makePuntTheir call75.7%average punt
- Q3 4:28WYO 4th & 1 at WYO 49, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call26.9%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt23.9%−3.1average punt
- Q4 14:53WYO 4th & 14 at WYO 47, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.7% before the snapGo for it20.5%−2.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.6%average punt
- Q4 13:01SJSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 29, up 10Numbers favored go for it by 3.2 ptsPunted · 76.0% before the snapGo for it78.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.2%−3.2average punt
- Q4 12:05WYO 4th & 5 at WYO 36, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snapGo for it19.3%−0.341% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.6%average punt
- Q4 3:57WYO 4th & 19 at WYO 26, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snapGo for it2.7%−0.410% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.1%average punt
- Q4 1:48SJSU 4th & 10 at SJSU 18, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snapGo for it97.6%−0.328% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.9%average punt
- Q4 0:09WYO 4th & 4 at SJSU 48, down 17Close callPunted · 2.3% before the snapGo for it2.1%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 1 of 2SJSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q2 6:39SJSU Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.9%97% to makeGo for two64.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:11WYO Touchdown, down 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.4%97% to makeGo for two46.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:16SJSU Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.7%97% to makeGo for two67.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:43SJSU Touchdown, up 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.0%97% to makeGo for two76.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:02WYO Touchdown, down 10 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick31.1%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call31.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:12SJSU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.2%97% to makeGo for two95.0%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSJSUDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1662% → 62%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
37.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 6 yds to the SJSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 2FG8 plays · 37 yds · 2:0338% → 39%
Q1 13:44
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+25
38.3%
Jayden Clemons pass complete to Joshua Cobbs for 25 yds to the SJSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 3:4161% → 59%
Q1 11:35
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+11
39.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Charles Ross for 11 yds to the SJSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 4SF1 play · 0 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5MISSED FG16 plays · 60 yds · 4:5659% → 57%
Q1 7:37
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+20
41.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Charles Ross for 20 yds to the Wyom 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+17
40.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 17 yds to the Wyom 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-11
40.9%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by DeVonne Harris for a loss of 11 yards to the Wyom 39Similar
Q1 4:28
3RD & 21
OPP 39
+21
42.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 21 yds to the Wyom 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 6PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 2:1544% → 44%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7FG9 plays · 57 yds · 3:2656% → 57%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+25
44.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+6
42.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 6 yds to the Wyom 44Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+16
42.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 16 yds to the Wyom 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 8DOWNS9 plays · 35 yds · 3:2943% → 44%
Q2 11:34
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+21
43.0%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Treyton Welch for 21 yds to the SJSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 9TD5 plays · 60 yds · 1:2660% → 70%
WYODrive 10TD4 plays · 49 yds · 1:2236% → 48%
SJSUDrive 11TD12 plays · 75 yds · 4:5557% → 74%
Q2 5:11
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+12
41.4%
CORDEIRO, Chevan pass to the left incomplete intended for COOKS, Elijah thrown to the WYO50. PENALTY WYO Pass Interference enforced at the spot of the foul for 12 yards to the SJS46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:01
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+9
41.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 9 yds to the Wyom 45Similar
Q2 3:01
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+5
41.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 5 yds to the Wyom 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+16
39.2%
WYOMING Penalty, Personal Foul (Wyett Ekeler) to the Wyom 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+7
38.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Charles Ross for 7 yds to the Wyom 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 12END OF HALF1 play · 3 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
30.8%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Parker Christensen for 3 yds to the Wyom 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 13INT2 plays · 4 yds · 0:4232% → 32%
SJSUDrive 14TD2 plays · 27 yds · 0:3572% → 83%
WYODrive 15PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4121% → 20%
Q3 12:02
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+5
19.6%
Clayton Stewart punt for 32 yds , Nehemiah Shelton returns for 5 yds to the SJSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 16MISSED FG7 plays · 45 yds · 2:2084% → 84%
Q3 12:02
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+37
16.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 37 yds to the Wyom 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 1
OPP 6
-5
15.7%
CORDEIRO, Chevan pass to the right incomplete intended for LOCKHART, Justin thrown to the WYO0. PENALTY SJS Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass enforced 5 yards from the WYO6 to the WYO11 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 17TD4 plays · 80 yds · 1:4019% → 31%
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
30.6%
Parker Christensen 13 Yd pass from Andrew Peasley (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 18PUNT10 plays · 29 yds · 3:3473% → 76%
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
27.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 9 yds to the SJSt 34Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+15
26.8%
CORDEIRO, Chevan pass to the right incomplete intended for ROSS, Charles broken up by GLINTON, Keonte at the SJS46. PENALTY WYO Unsportsmanlike Conduct on OMOTOSHO, Oluwaseyi enforced 15 yards from the SJS38 to the WYO47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
25.5%
ROBINSON, Kairee rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the WYO45 (SUIAUNOA, Shae). PENALTY SJS Holding enforced 10 yards from the WYO47 to the SJS43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 20
OWN 43
+5
26.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 5 yds to the SJSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 19PUNT11 plays · 27 yds · 4:3524% → 21%
Q3 4:28
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+4
24.2%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Treyton Welch for 4 yds to the Wyom 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 44
-9
24.5%
Andrew Peasley sacked by Viliami Fehoko for a loss of 9 yards to the Wyom 47Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 14
OWN 47
0
20.5%
Clayton Stewart punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Shamar Garrett at the SJSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 21 yds · 1:5277% → 77%
WYODrive 21PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5621% → 19%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 22TD10 plays · 80 yds · 5:5381% → 97%
WYODrive 23PUNT4 plays · -9 yds · 2:155% → 3%
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
4.5%
Andrew Peasley sacked by Alii Matau and Cade Hall for a loss of 10 yards to the Wyom 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 2:0998% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 25PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:392% → 2%
Q4 1:48
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
2.3%
Jayden Clemons pass complete to Jackson Marcotte for no gain to the SJSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 26END OF GAME1 play · 1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:12
Chevan Cordeiro 18 Yd Run (Taren Schive Kick)
-13.6
TD · Q2 5:11
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 38 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK)
+12.3
TD · Q3 8:02
Parker Christensen 13 Yd pass from Andrew Peasley (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+12.1