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NAVY

Navy 10 at Air Force 13

AF
2022 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2022 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:42 · Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the AFA 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 14Pregame prior+35.1Home team on offense+0.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score differential+0.2Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:00: Daniel Davies 37 yd FG GOOD — NAVY win probability +2.4 pts (now 16%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 10:50: Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds for a TD, (Daniel Davies KICK) — NAVY win probability +23.7 pts (now 44%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 10:50: Brad Roberts run for 9 yds to the AFA 34 — AF win probability +6.1 pts (now 67%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 4:14: Matthew Dapore 22 yd FG GOOD — AF win probability +12.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:14: PENALTY NAVY Delay Of Game 5 yards from NAVY25 to NAVY20. NO PLAY. — NAVY win probability +6.4 pts (now 23%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 7NAVY made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 9:42NAVY 4th & 2 at AF 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    17.7%−0.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    17.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:17AF 4th & 3 at NAVY 6, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.0%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    80.4%−1.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:09NAVY 4th & 7 at NAVY 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:35AF 4th & 9 at AF 41, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:08NAVY 4th & 13 at NAVY 17, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:15NAVY 4th & 9 at NAVY 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:11AF 4th & 2 at AF 28, up 10
    Close callPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:18NAVY 4th & 7 at AF 43, down 10
    Close callPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    16.5%−0.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:18NAVY 4th & 7 at AF 43, down 10
    Close callPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    16.5%−0.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:02NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:27AF 4th & 8 at NAVY 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    81.3%−1.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:27AF 4th & 8 at NAVY 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    81.3%−1.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:18NAVY 4th & 12 at AF 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%−2.2
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    10.6%−8.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:10AF 4th & 2 at AF 28, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.8%−1.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:14AF 4th & 3 at NAVY 4, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.3%−4.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    30.3%−31.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:49NAVY 4th & 15 at NAVY 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−1.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1NAVY made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 13:36AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 10:50NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:2488% → 88%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.6%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
87.6%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 6 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+67
87.5%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to David Cormier for 67 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2DOWNS
10 plays · 33 yds · 3:5413% → 13%
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.5%
Maquel Haywood run for 2 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
87.5%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 1 yd to the Navy 26Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+15
87.5%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Personal Foul (Trey Taylor) to the Navy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
87.4%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 8 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+1
87.4%
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the AFA 42Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+5
87.4%
PENALTY NAVY False Start (Frankland,Kip) 5 yards from AF 42 to AF 47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+4
87.4%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Maquel Haywood for 4 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+4
87.4%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Maquel Haywood for 4 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q1 9:42
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+1
86.9%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the AFA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3FG
9 plays · 52 yds · 5:2587% → 87%
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
87.3%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 7 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+3
87.3%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+25
87.3%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to David Cormier for 25 yds to the Navy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
87.4%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 7 yds to the Navy 16Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+3
87.4%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 3 yds to the Navy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
87.4%
Haaziq Daniels run for 5 yds to the Navy 8Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 5
OPP 8
0
87.4%
Brad Roberts run for no gain to the Navy 8Similar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+2
87.3%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the Navy 6Similar
Q1 4:17
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+23
86.8%
Matthew Dapore 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:0814% → 13%
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
86.2%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 6 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
86.0%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+1
86.3%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Vincent Terrell Jr. for 1 yd to the Navy 28Similar
Q1 2:09
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
86.7%
Riley Riethman punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3487% → 86%
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
86.8%
Haaziq Daniels sacked by Tyler Fletcher for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 39Similar
Q1 2:09
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+2
86.6%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q1 2:09
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
86.4%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Caleb RillosSimilar
Q1 0:35
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
85.9%
Carson Bay punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:5214% → 13%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
86.1%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
86.2%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Vincent Terrell Jr.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-5
86.5%
Tai Lavatai sacked by TD Blackmon for a loss of 5 yards to the Navy 17Similar
Q2 14:08
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
86.6%
Riley Riethman punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Amari Terry at the AFA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7FUMBLE
8 plays · 51 yds · 4:0086% → 87%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
86.2%
Haaziq Daniels run for 7 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 17
OWN 28
+28
86.0%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to David Cormier for 28 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
86.7%
Haaziq Daniels run for 7 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+8
86.7%
Brad Roberts run for 8 yds to the Navy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
86.8%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the Navy 28Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+9
86.8%
Haaziq Daniels run for 9 yds to the Navy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+9
86.8%
Haaziq Daniels run for 9 yds to the Navy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
86.7%
Haaziq Daniels run for 5 yds to the Navy 14 Haaziq Daniels fumbled, recovered by Navy Justin ReedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 3:5314% → 13%
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+12
86.0%
Maquel Haywood run for 12 yds to the Navy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+22
85.8%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Mark Walker for 22 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
85.2%
Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+2
85.0%
Maquel Haywood run for 2 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+2
85.0%
Maquel Haywood run for 2 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
85.8%
Tai Lavatai run for no gain to the AFA 46Similar
Q2 7:37
4TH & 4
OPP 46
+5
86.3%
PENALTY NAVY Delay Of Game 5 yards from AF 46 to NAVY49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:15
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
86.8%
Riley Riethman punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:0487% → 86%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
86.6%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 22Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+2
86.5%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 2 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+4
86.2%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to John Lee Eldridge III for 4 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+4
86.2%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to John Lee Eldridge III for 4 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q2 4:11
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+3
85.9%
Carson Bay punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 30 , Amin Hassan returns for 3 yds to the Navy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 2:5314% → 14%
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
86.4%
Tai Lavatai run for 6 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+5
85.8%
Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
85.9%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Vincent Terrell Jr.Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+13
86.1%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 13 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
85.3%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
85.4%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Maquel HaywoodSimilar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 7
OPP 43
0
85.5%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Logan PointSimilar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 7
OPP 43
0
85.5%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Logan PointSimilar
Q2 1:18
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
86.5%
Kellen Grave de Peralta punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q2 1:18
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
86.5%
Kellen Grave de Peralta punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11FUMBLE
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:4487% → 87%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
87.1%
Haaziq Daniels run for 14 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
87.2%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Caleb RillosSimilar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+1
87.2%
Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the AFA 33Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 11
OWN 33
-2
87.0%
Haaziq Daniels sacked by Jacob Busic for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 31 Haaziq Daniels fumbled, recovered by Navy Jacob Busic , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12FG
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:3416% → 16%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+18
84.5%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 18 yds to the AFA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
84.3%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the AFA 16Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 13
OPP 16
+4
85.1%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Maquel Haywood for 4 yds to the AFA 20Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 17
OPP 20
+37
84.1%
Daniel Davies 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5817% → 16%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
83.5%
Tai Lavatai run for 8 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
82.3%
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the Navy 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
83.1%
Maquel Haywood run for 2 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q3 13:02
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
83.9%
Kellen Grave de Peralta punt for 68 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14PUNT
13 plays · 35 yds · 4:3584% → 84%
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
84.0%
Brad Roberts run for 17 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
84.6%
Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-5
85.1%
PENALTY AF Delay Of Game 5 yards from AF 39 to AF 34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+4
83.9%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q3 13:02
3RD & 9
OWN 38
-15
83.9%
Daniels,Haaziq pass incomplete short right to Cormier,David PENALTY NAVY Personal Foul (BERNIARDJr,Donald) 15 yards from AF 38 to NAVY47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
85.4%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+4
85.4%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q3 13:02
3RD & 4
OPP 41
-5
85.0%
PENALTY AF False Start (Rillos,Caleb) 5 yards from NAVY41 to NAVY46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:02
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+1
84.6%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 13:02
3RD & 4
OPP 41
-5
85.0%
PENALTY AF False Start (Rillos,Caleb) 5 yards from NAVY41 to NAVY46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:02
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+1
84.6%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 8:27
4TH & 8
OPP 45
+37
84.3%
Carson Bay punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 16 NAVY Penalty, Offensive Holding (Elias Larry) to the Navy 8Similar
Q3 8:27
4TH & 8
OPP 45
+37
84.3%
Carson Bay punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 16 NAVY Penalty, Offensive Holding (Elias Larry) to the Navy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15MISSED FG
14 plays · 76 yds · 6:0917% → 16%
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+27
83.0%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 27 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
82.1%
Daba Fofana run for 4 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+10
80.9%
Maquel Haywood run for 10 yds to the Navy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
80.6%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Mark WalkerSimilar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+2
81.2%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 2 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q3 6:12
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+23
82.1%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 23 yds to the AFA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
79.5%
Maquel Haywood run for 7 yds to the AFA 19Similar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 3
OPP 19
0
79.5%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Camari WilliamsSimilar
Q3 6:12
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+5
80.9%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 5 yds to the AFA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
79.5%
Daba Fofana run for no gain to the AFA 14Similar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
79.5%
Maquel Haywood run for no gain to the AFA 14Similar
Q3 6:12
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+2
81.1%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the AFA 16Similar
Q3 2:18
4TH & 12
OPP 16
+33
83.6%
Daniel Davies 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0887% → 88%
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
86.7%
Haaziq Daniels run for 5 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
86.9%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 1 yd to the AFA 26Similar
Q3 2:18
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+2
86.3%
Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q3 0:10
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
87.9%
Carson Bay punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17TD
11 plays · 59 yds · 4:1017% → 44%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
83.1%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Kai Puailoa-Rojas for 2 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+9
83.1%
Xavier Arline run for 9 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
81.4%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
50
+7
82.6%
Tai Lavatai run for 7 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+9
81.8%
Daba Fofana run for 9 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
80.1%
Maquel Haywood run for 1 yd to the AFA 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+27
80.1%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Mark Walker for 27 yds to the AFA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
79.8%
Xavier Arline run for 1 yd to the AFA 5Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
79.8%
Xavier Arline run for no gain to the AFA 5Similar
Q4 10:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
56.1%
Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds for a TD, (Daniel Davies KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18FG
14 plays · 71 yds · 6:3667% → 85%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
67.4%
Brad Roberts run for 9 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+9
70.2%
Brad Roberts run for 9 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
70.6%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 3 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+6
71.1%
Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+1
71.5%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
71.9%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Engel for 15 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
74.0%
Haaziq Daniels run for 9 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 1
OPP 23
-5
74.0%
PENALTY AF False Start (Karas,Adam) 5 yards from NAVY23 to NAVY28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+17
74.0%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Ben Jefferson for 17 yds to the Navy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
74.0%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the Navy 7Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+4
74.0%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the Navy 3Similar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+1
72.0%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the Navy 4Similar
Q4 4:14
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+22
84.5%
Matthew Dapore 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:2523% → 20%
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
77.4%
PENALTY NAVY Delay Of Game 5 yards from NAVY25 to NAVY20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
77.9%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Maquel HaywoodSimilar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
78.1%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Jayden UmbargerSimilar
Q4 4:14
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
79.3%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Vincent Terrell Jr.Similar
Q4 3:49
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
80.1%
Kellen Grave de Peralta punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20END OF GAME
11 plays · 29 yds · 3:4984% → 96%
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+24
83.8%
Brad Roberts run for 24 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
86.5%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+1
88.7%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the Navy 39Similar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+18
89.8%
Haaziq Daniels run for 18 yds to the Navy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
91.4%
run for no gain to the Navy 21Similar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-15
96.0%
PENALTY AF UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Daniels,Haaziq) 15 yards from NAVY21 to NAVY36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 25
OPP 36
-1
95.5%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 37Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 26
OPP 37
-1
96.3%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:50
Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds for a TD, (Daniel Davies KICK)
-23.7
FG · Q4 4:14
Matthew Dapore 22 yd FG GOOD
+12.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:14
PENALTY NAVY Delay Of Game 5 yards from NAVY25 to NAVY20. NO PLAY.
-6.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com