2022 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2022 · CEFCU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreWMU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:28 · Taren Schive 27 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 11:50: Kairee Robinson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Taren Schive KICK) — SJSU win probability +4.9 pts (now 76%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:10: Elijah Cooks 13 Yd pass from Chevan Cordeiro (Taren Schive Kick) — SJSU win probability +7.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:36: Charles Ross 39 Yd pass from Chevan Cordeiro (Taren Schive Kick) — SJSU win probability +4.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 8:18: Kairee Robinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 18 — WMU win probability +2.6 pts (now 7%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:45: Kairee Robinson 23 Yd Run (Taren Schive Kick) — SJSU win probability +4.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7WMU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
- Q1 12:17SJSU 4th & 7 at SJSU 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 67.7% before the snapGo for it67.7%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.7%average punt
- Q1 4:18WMU 4th & 2 at SJSU 6, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call34.0%52% to convertField goal33.7%−0.391% to makePunt32.1%−1.9average punt
- Q1 1:09SJSU 4th & 18 at WMU 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.9% before the snapGo for it65.1%−0.712% to convertField goalTheir call65.8%74% to makePunt63.9%−1.9average punt
- Q2 14:54WMU 4th & 20 at WMU 2, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snapGo for it29.8%−1.88% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.6%average punt
- Q2 13:20SJSU 4th & 1 at WMU 29, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call67.7%71% to convertField goal66.6%−1.158% to makePunt64.3%−3.4average punt
- Q2 3:05WMU 4th & 2 at SJSU 23, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call25.0%57% to convertField goal24.2%−0.870% to makePunt20.0%−5.0average punt
- Q3 13:15WMU 4th & 4 at WMU 42, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snapGo for it13.6%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.7%average punt
- Q3 6:47SJSU 4th & 12 at SJSU 18, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.8% before the snapGo for it90.8%−1.522% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.3%average punt
- Q3 5:00WMU 4th & 23 at WMU 21, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snapGo for it5.0%−3.16% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.1%average punt
- Q3 1:32SJSU 4th & 1 at WMU 16, up 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.7%71% to convertField goal93.6%−1.181% to makePunt90.2%−4.5average punt
- Q4 14:51WMU 4th & 1 at WMU 25, down 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt4.7%−1.0average punt
- Q4 13:14WMU 4th & 9 at WMU 26, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.230% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q4 10:18SJSU 4th & 3 at WMU 39, up 25Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snapGo for it99.5%53% to convertField goal99.2%−0.336% to makePuntTheir call99.2%−0.2average punt
- Q4 6:28SJSU 4th & 7 at WMU 9, up 25Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.130% to convertField goalTheir call99.6%89% to makePunt99.0%−0.6average punt
- Q4 2:39WMU 4th & 14 at WMU 29, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.118% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 0:00WMU 4th & 19 at SJSU 19, down 28Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.110% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%77% to makePunt0.0%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SJSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q2 11:50SJSU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.7%97% to makeGo for two73.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:10SJSU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.8%97% to makeGo for two84.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:36SJSU Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.2%97% to makeGo for two96.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:45SJSU Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSJSUDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 2:3671% → 70%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Sam Olson for 5 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
70.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Charles Ross for 5 yds to the SJSt 40Similar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-2
70.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Shamar Garrett for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 2DOWNS17 plays · 78 yds · 7:5930% → 32%
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
70.5%
Mareyohn Hrabowski pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 5 yds to the WMich 19Similar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+39
70.4%
Mareyohn Hrabowski pass complete to Corey Crooms for 39 yds to the SJSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 9
OPP 12
-10
68.3%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SJSt 19Similar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 16
OPP 19
0
68.9%
(06:14) HRABOWSKI, Mareyohn pass up the middle intercepted by WILLIAMS, Chase at the SJS9 intended for CROOMS, Corey. Williams return for 0 yards to the SJS9, End of Play, clock 06:07. PENALTY SJS Pass Interference on PARHAM, Bryun enforced half the distance from the goal, 5 yards to the SJS14 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3FG8 plays · 71 yds · 2:5469% → 69%
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+9
68.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 9 yds to the SJSt 17Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 1
OWN 17
-8
68.9%
(03:33) ROBINSON, Kairee rush up the middle for a loss of 8 yards to the SJS9 (GARNER, Bricen;MOMENT, Corvin). PENALTY SJS Holding on PARDUE, Anthony enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the SJS17 to the SJS8 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 9
OWN 9
-5
68.6%
(03:20) CORDEIRO, Chevan pass up the middle complete for 12 yards to COOKS, Elijah caught at the SJS21 and advanced to the SJS21 (GARNER, Bricen). PENALTY SJS Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on PARDUE, Anthony enforced 5 yards from the SJS9 to the SJS4 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 13
OWN 5
+82
68.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 82 yds to the WMich 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:56
3RD & 10
OPP 13
-8
69.7%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Zaire Barnes and Braden Fiske for a loss of 8 yards to the WMich 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 4PUNT8 plays · -10 yds · 1:1130% → 29%
Q1 0:36
2ND & 7
OWN 15
0
70.1%
(00:36) HRABOWSKI, Mareyohn pass to the right incomplete intended for SAMBUCCI, Anthony thrown to the WMU35. PENALTY WMU Personal Foul on JEFFERSON, La'Darius enforced half the distance from the goal, 8 yards from the WMU15 to the WMU7 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 20
OWN 2
+15
71.3%
Nick Mihalic punt for 51 yds , Isaiah Hamilton returns for 15 yds to the WMich 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5TD7 plays · 38 yds · 2:5471% → 76%
WMUDrive 6DOWNS16 plays · 63 yds · 8:4025% → 23%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7TD11 plays · 77 yds · 2:4579% → 87%
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
78.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Shamar Garrett for 4 yds to the SJSt 27Similar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+5
78.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Charles Ross for 5 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q2 1:39
4TH & 1
OWN 32
+15
78.6%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the SJSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+19
78.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 19 yds to the WMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+6
80.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 6 yds to the WMich 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 8END OF HALF1 play · 10 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
85.8%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 10 yds to the WMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 1:4513% → 13%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+6
86.0%
Mareyohn Hrabowski pass complete to Blake Bosma for 6 yds to the WMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 10TD9 plays · 71 yds · 4:3988% → 96%
Q3 12:37
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+8
88.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Sam Olson for 8 yds to the SJSt 38Similar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
89.8%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, False Start (Fernando Carmona Jr.) to the SJSt 35Similar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+20
89.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 20 yds to the WMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
91.6%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, False Start (Jaime Navarro) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 15
50
+7
91.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Sam Olson for 7 yds to the WMich 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 11PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 1:3193% → 92%
WMUDrive 12PUNT4 plays · -13 yds · 1:478% → 7%
Q3 6:47
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-5
92.1%
Mareyohn Hrabowski run for a loss of 5 yards to the WMich 29 Mareyohn Hrabowski fumbled, recovered by WMich Mareyohn HrabowskiSimilar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 15
OWN 29
-8
92.5%
Mareyohn Hrabowski sacked by Cade Hall for a loss of 8 yards to the WMich 21Similar
Q3 5:00
4TH & 23
OWN 21
0
93.5%
Nick Mihalic punt for 53 yds , Isaiah Hamilton returns for no gain to the SJSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 13DOWNS12 plays · 58 yds · 3:2894% → 94%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
94.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Sam Olson for 12 yds to the SJSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
95.0%
(03:57) CORDEIRO, Chevan pass up the middle complete for 38 yards to COOKS, Elijah caught at the WMU18 and advanced to the WMU0, TOUCHDOWN SJS, score nullified by penalty, clock 03:47. PENALTY SJS Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on HARBERT, Joseph enforced 5 yards from the WMU38 to the WMU43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:43
3RD & 12
OPP 40
+15
94.8%
CORDEIRO, Chevan pass up the middle incomplete intended for BRADDOCK, Jermaine thrown to the WMU0. PENALTY WMU Pass Interference on SELIG, Ryan enforced 15 yards to the WMU25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:36
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+8
95.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 8 yds to the WMich 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14DOWNS4 plays · 7 yds · 1:417% → 6%
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
93.4%
Mareyohn Hrabowski pass complete to Sean Tyler for 6 yds to the WMich 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15TD1 play · 23 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:313% → 2%
Q4 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
97.4%
Mareyohn Hrabowski sacked by Lando Grey for a loss of 3 yards to the WMich 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 2:5699% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18INT6 plays · 8 yds · 2:251% → 0%
Q4 10:18
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+7
98.9%
Mareyohn Hrabowski pass complete to Blake Bosma for 7 yds to the WMich 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
98.9%
ABDUS-SALAAM, Zahir rush to the left for a loss of 6 yards to the WMU7 (JOHNSON, B.J.;GUIDRY, Elisha), out of bounds. PENALTY WMU Holding on WILSON JR., Henry enforced half the distance from the goal, 7 yards from the WMU13 to the WMU6 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 16
OWN 7
+3
98.8%
Stone Hollenbach pass complete to Blake Bosma for 3 yds to the WMich 10Similar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-10
99.7%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the WMich 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19FG5 plays · 3 yds · 1:25100% → 100%
WMUDrive 20PUNT7 plays · 8 yds · 3:420% → 0%
Q4 6:21
2ND & 1
OWN 30
-5
99.9%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-5 Yards) to the WMich 26Similar
Q4 6:21
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+7
99.9%
Stone Hollenbach pass complete to Joshua Burgett for 7 yds to the WMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 12
OWN 31
-2
99.9%
Stone Hollenbach pass complete to Zahir Abdus-Salaam for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 21MISSED FG6 plays · 3 yds · 2:390% → 0%
Q4 2:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
-9
99.9%
Stone Hollenbach sacked by Noah Lavulo for a loss of 9 yards to the SJSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:10
Elijah Cooks 13 Yd pass from Chevan Cordeiro (Taren Schive Kick)
+7
TD · Q2 11:50
Kairee Robinson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Taren Schive KICK)
+4.9
TD · Q4 14:45
Kairee Robinson 23 Yd Run (Taren Schive Kick)
+4.9