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Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadWYO aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreWYO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:00 · Ryan Rehkow punt for 39 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:04: Jaren Hall pass complete to Brayden Cosper for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +8.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:51: Jaren Hall pass complete to Kody Epps for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +5.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:13: Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for 9 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +7.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:54: Andrew Peasley pass complete to Treyton Welch for 19 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +8.9 pts (now 14%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:54: Timeout BYU, clock 14:54 — BYU win probability +8.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7WYO made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 13:54BYU 4th & 6 at BYU 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 91.1% before the snapGo for it91.1%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.1%average punt
- Q1 9:59WYO 4th & 8 at BYU 11, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.0% before the snapGo for it10.0%−<0.129% to convertField goalTheir call10.0%87% to makePunt9.6%−0.5average punt
- Q1 8:00BYU 4th & 5 at BYU 30, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.9% before the snapGo for it89.0%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.0%average punt
- Q1 4:25WYO 4th & 5 at BYU 49, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snapGo for it12.4%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.4%average punt
- Q2 9:14BYU 4th & 6 at midfield, down 3Close callPunted · 82.2% before the snapGo for it82.2%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.1%−0.1average punt
- Q2 3:32WYO 4th & 18 at WYO 26, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snapGo for it19.2%−2.112% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.4%average punt
- Q3 12:58WYO 4th & 5 at WYO 40, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snapGo for it17.7%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.8%average punt
- Q3 5:37WYO 4th & 17 at WYO 31, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snapGo for it9.1%−1.514% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.6%average punt
- Q4 12:21BYU 4th & 1 at BYU 34, up 11Close callPunted · 91.0% before the snapGo for it91.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.8%−0.9average punt
- Q4 10:33WYO 4th & 6 at WYO 11, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snapGo for it6.7%−0.338% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.9%average punt
- Q4 8:11BYU 4th & 4 at WYO 41, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call93.1%48% to convertField goal92.1%−1.032% to makePunt92.3%−0.8average punt
- Q4 8:11BYU 4th & 4 at WYO 41, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call93.1%48% to convertField goal92.1%−1.032% to makePunt92.3%−0.8average punt
- Q4 7:07WYO 4th & 11 at WYO 40, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snapGo for it6.1%−0.226% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.4%average punt
- Q4 1:24BYU 4th & 8 at WYO 8, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.3% before the snapGo for it96.0%−0.226% to convertField goalTheir call96.2%90% to makePunt94.8%−1.4average punt
- Q4 0:33WYO 4th & 3 at WYO 44, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.0%−1.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5WYO made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 2:50BYU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.4%97% to makeGo for two88.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:03WYO Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call15.4%97% to makeGo for two15.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:04BYU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.1%97% to makeGo for two83.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:51BYU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.5%97% to makeGo for two89.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:13BYU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.8%97% to makeGo for two96.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:54WYO Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call8.4%97% to makeGo for two8.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:31BYU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.4%97% to makeGo for two98.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:15WYO Touchdown, down 12 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call4.3%−0.197% to makeGo for two4.5%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBYUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0193% → 93%
Q1 13:54
4TH & 6
OWN 26
0
93.1%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Wyatt Wieland at the Wyom 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 2FG13 plays · 57 yds · 3:557% → 8%
BYUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5992% → 91%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 4PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 3:359% → 10%
Q1 8:00
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+8
91.2%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 8 yds to the Wyom 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
91.2%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Joshua Cobbs for 1 yd to the Wyom 47Similar
Q1 4:25
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
89.8%
Clayton Stewart punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Hobbs Nyberg at the BYU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5TD4 plays · 91 yds · 1:3589% → 91%
WYODrive 6TD12 plays · 75 yds · 4:4710% → 15%
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
90.5%
BYU Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Wyom 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
90.1%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Parker Christensen for 7 yds to the BYU 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+19
89.0%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 19 yds to the BYU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7PUNT10 plays · 25 yds · 3:4986% → 83%
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
85.8%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Isaac Rex for 10 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-5
86.4%
PENALTY BYU False Start (Hall,Jaren) 5 yards from BYU44 to BYU39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
86.3%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 8PUNT10 plays · 23 yds · 5:4216% → 19%
Q2 9:14
3RD & 6
OWN 7
+10
84.9%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Titus Swen for 10 yds to the Wyom 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+9
83.9%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Titus Swen for 9 yds to the Wyom 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
3RD & 7
OWN 37
-11
84.1%
Andrew Peasley sacked by John Nelson for a loss of 11 yards to the Wyom 26Similar
Q2 3:32
4TH & 18
OWN 26
0
80.6%
Clayton Stewart punt for 50 yds , Hobbs Nyberg returns for no gain to the BYU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9TD17 plays · 76 yds · 3:2879% → 89%
Q2 3:32
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+23
78.4%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for 23 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+13
81.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 13 yds to the Wyom 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
80.4%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 3 yds to the Wyom 18Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+15
78.7%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Brayden Cosper for 15 yds to the Wyom 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
88.5%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Brayden Cosper for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 10PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 2:0216% → 16%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
84.6%
Peasley,Andrew pass complete short right to Welch,Treyton for 8 yards to the WYO33 (Harper,Micah) PENALTY BYU Holding (Harper,Micah) 10 yards from WYO25 to WYO35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:58
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
84.0%
Clayton Stewart punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Hobbs Nyberg at the BYU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11TD12 plays · 83 yds · 5:0784% → 91%
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
85.9%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Brayden Cosper for 14 yds to the Wyom 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 17
OPP 21
+15
85.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Hall,Jaren pass incomplete short left to Hill,Keanu PENALTY WYO Pass Interference (Hawkins,Jakorey) 15 yards from WYO21 to WYO06, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
91.1%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Kody Epps for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 12PUNT7 plays · 6 yds · 2:1410% → 10%
BYUDrive 13TD10 plays · 67 yds · 4:2492% → 99%
Q3 5:37
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+26
91.2%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Brayden Cosper for 26 yds to the Wyom 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+13
92.1%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for 13 yds to the Wyom 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:13
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+9
98.6%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for 9 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
98.5%
PENALTY BYU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Hill,Keanu) 15 yards from BYU35 to BYU20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 14TD6 plays · 50 yds · 1:195% → 14%
Q3 1:13
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+15
95.1%
BYU Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Payton Wilgar) to the BYU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
95.1%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Will Pelissier for 8 yds to the BYU 19Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+19
86.2%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Treyton Welch for 19 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 2:3394% → 95%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
94.3%
Miles Davis run for 2 yds to the BYU 27 Miles Davis fumbled, recovered by BYU Miles DavisSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-5
93.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Hall,Jaren pass complete short right to Nacua,Puka for 4 yards to the BYU38, out of bounds at BYU38 PENALTY BYU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Pay,Connor) 5 yards from BYU34 to BYU29. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 16PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:489% → 7%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17DOWNS9 plays · 6 yds · 2:2298% → 98%
Q4 9:38
3RD & 2
OPP 39
-16
97.6%
No Huddle Davis,Miles rush middle for 14 yards gain to the WYO25 (White,Isaac) PENALTY BYU Personal Foul (Wake,Masen) 16 yards from WYO39 to BYU45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:38
3RD & 18
OWN 45
+14
97.5%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Miles Davis for 14 yds to the Wyom 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 18PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:046% → 4%
BYUDrive 19TD3 plays · 72 yds · 1:3698% → 100%
WYODrive 20TD11 plays · 75 yds · 2:161% → 5%
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
98.6%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Joshua Cobbs for 28 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
98.4%
PENALTY WYO False Start (Tulafono,Nofoafia) 5 yards from BYU36 to BYU41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 15
OPP 41
+31
98.5%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Joshua Cobbs for 31 yds to the BYU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
98.1%
Shotgun Peasley,Andrew pass incomplete short left to Pelissier,Will PENALTY BYU Pass Interference (Mandell,D'Angelo) 8 yards from BYU10 to BYU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
98.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Peasley,Andrew pass incomplete short right broken up by Jackson,Fisher PENALTY BYU Personal Foul 5 yards from BYU09 to BYU04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
95.1%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Joshua Cobbs for 4 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 21FG10 plays · 67 yds · 1:5199% → 100%
Q4 2:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
99.0%
No Huddle Davis,Miles rush right for 5 yards gain to the WYO00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 02:28 PENALTY BYU Holding (Pay,Connor) 10 yards from WYO05 to WYO15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
99.5%
Justen Smith 25 yd FG GOOD WYOMING Penalty, Defensive Offside (Titus Swen) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 22DOWNS5 plays · 7 yds · 0:441% → 1%
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
99.0%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Titus Swen for 7 yds to the Wyom 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 23END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:54
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Treyton Welch for 19 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK)
-8.9
TD · Q2 0:04
Jaren Hall pass complete to Brayden Cosper for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)
+8.2
TD · Q4 14:54
Timeout BYU, clock 14:54
+8.2