Try the model
SAC

Sacramento State 41 at Colorado State 10

CSU
2022 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2022 · Canvas Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadSAC aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreSAC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:53 · Cal McGough punt for 43 yds , Thomas Pannunzio returns for no gain to the ColSt 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 91Home team on offense−19.1Score differential−10.1Garbage-time factor−4.5Pregame prior−2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:11: Jake Dunniway pass complete to Pierre Williams for 5 yds for a TD, (Kyle Sentkowski KICK) — SAC win probability +7.2 pts (now 66%) (top driver: SAC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:25: Asher O'Hara pass complete to Marcus Fulcher for 14 yds for a TD, (Kyle Sentkowski KICK) — SAC win probability +12.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: SAC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:17: Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 52 yds for a TD, (Michael Boyle KICK) — CSU win probability +6.3 pts (now 32%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:00: Kyle Sentkowski 45 yd FG GOOD — SAC win probability +7.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: SAC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:59: Asher O'Hara run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kyle Sentkowski KICK) — SAC win probability +12.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: SAC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10SAC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:36CSU 4th & 9 at CSU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:28CSU 4th & 4 at SAC 49, down 7
    Close callPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:54SAC 4th & 6 at SAC 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:31CSU 4th & 7 at SAC 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    33.5%−5.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:54CSU 4th & 17 at CSU 18, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−1.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:34CSU 4th & 8 at CSU 27, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:04CSU 4th & 3 at CSU 43, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.4%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:53SAC 4th & 15 at SAC 45, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.8%−2.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:07CSU 4th & 1 at CSU 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.2%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:05CSU 4th & 8 at CSU 40, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:50SAC 4th & 6 at CSU 29, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    94.9%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:37CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 29, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:47SAC 4th & 1 at CSU 1, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    99.0%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    98.5%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:30CSU 4th & 3 at CSU 32, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1SAC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 7:38SAC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:11SAC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:25SAC Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:17CSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:59SAC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:47SAC Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 4:1744% → 45%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
44.4%
David Bailey run for 6 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 4
OWN 29
-2
44.4%
Clay Millen pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 27Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+6
44.4%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tanner Arkin for 6 yds to the ColSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
44.4%
Clay Millen run for 1 yd to the ColSt 34Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+2
44.4%
A'Jon Vivens run for 2 yds to the ColSt 36Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+3
44.4%
Clay Millen pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 3 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q1 14:53
4TH & 4
OWN 39
-5
44.4%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 34Similar
Q1 10:36
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
45.2%
Paddy Turner punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 2TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 2:5855% → 58%
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
45.5%
Jake Dunniway pass complete to Jared Gipson for 10 yds to the SacSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
45.3%
Jake Dunniway pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:36
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
45.4%
Jake Dunniway pass complete to Jared Gipson for 8 yds to the SacSt 44Similar
Q1 10:36
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+7
45.1%
Jake Dunniway pass complete to Jared Gipson for 7 yds to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+32
45.1%
Jake Dunniway pass complete to Parker Clayton for 32 yds to the ColSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
44.9%
Marcus Fulcher run for 6 yds to the ColSt 11Similar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+5
44.9%
Cameron Skattebo run for 5 yds to the ColSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
42.0%
Asher O'Hara run for 6 yds for a TD, (Kyle Sentkowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 3:1043% → 43%
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
43.1%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tanner Arkin for 5 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+15
43.2%
David Bailey run for 15 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
43.7%
Clay Millen pass complete to David Bailey for a loss of 5 yards to the ColSt 40Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+12
43.2%
Clay Millen run for 12 yds to the SacSt 48Similar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 3
OPP 48
-1
43.9%
Clay Millen pass complete to Louis Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the SacSt 49Similar
Q1 4:28
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
42.7%
Paddy Turner punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Marcus Fulcher at the SacSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:3458% → 58%
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
42.4%
Jake Dunniway pass complete to Marshel Martin for 9 yds to the SacSt 22Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+6
41.9%
Marcus Fulcher run for 6 yds to the SacSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
42.0%
Jake Dunniway pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
42.4%
Jake Dunniway pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:28
3RD & 10
OWN 28
-5
42.6%
SACRAMENTO ST Penalty, False Start (Cameron Skattebo) to the SacSt 23Similar
Q1 4:28
3RD & 15
OWN 23
+9
42.8%
Jake Dunniway pass complete to Cameron Skattebo for 9 yds to the SacSt 32Similar
Q1 2:54
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
42.4%
Cal McGough punt for 46 yds , Thomas Pannunzio returns for no gain to the ColSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5FG
8 plays · 71 yds · 4:2342% → 46%
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
42.1%
A'Jon Vivens run for 6 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+3
42.3%
A'Jon Vivens run for 3 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+6
42.4%
A'Jon Vivens run for 6 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+56
42.5%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 56 yds to the SacSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
43.8%
Jaylen Thomas run for no gain to the SacSt 7Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
43.8%
David Bailey run for no gain to the SacSt 7Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
43.0%
David Bailey run for no gain to the SacSt 7Similar
Q2 13:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
45.9%
Michael Boyle 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 6TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:2055% → 66%
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
44.8%
Cameron Skattebo run for 2 yds to the SacSt 27Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
44.7%
Asher O'Hara run for 4 yds to the SacSt 31Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
44.8%
O'HARA, Asher pass to the left incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Pierre thrown to the SAC50. PENALTY CSU Pass Interference on ANUSIEM, Chigozie enforced 15 yards to the SAC46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
43.5%
Jake Dunniway run for no gain to the SacSt 46 Jake Dunniway fumbled, recovered by SacStSimilar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
43.7%
Jake Dunniway pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+17
44.3%
Jake Dunniway pass complete to Pierre Williams for 17 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
43.1%
Marcus Fulcher run for 14 yds to the ColSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
42.7%
Marcus Fulcher run for 6 yds to the ColSt 17Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 4
OPP 17
0
42.7%
Cameron Skattebo run for no gain to the ColSt 17Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 4
OPP 17
0
43.1%
DUNNIWAY, Jake pass to the left incomplete intended for GIPSON, Jared thrown to the CSU2. PENALTY CSU Holding on GUZMAN, Brandon enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the CSU17 to the CSU8 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
42.7%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Marcus Fulcher for 3 yds to the ColSt 5Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
41.4%
Jake Dunniway pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
34.2%
Jake Dunniway pass complete to Pierre Williams for 5 yds for a TD, (Kyle Sentkowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 2:1735% → 33%
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
35.3%
Tanner Arkin run for 1 yd to the ColSt 26Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
35.2%
A'Jon Vivens run for 6 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q2 9:11
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-14
35.2%
Clay Millen sacked by Marte Mapu for a loss of 14 yards to the ColSt 18Similar
Q2 6:54
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+44
32.5%
Paddy Turner punt for 42 yds , Marcus Fulcher returns for 44 yds to the ColSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 8TD
2 plays · 16 yds · 0:2968% → 80%
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
32.5%
Asher O'Hara run for 2 yds to the ColSt 14Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+14
20.3%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Marcus Fulcher for 14 yds for a TD, (Kyle Sentkowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5126% → 25%
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
26.0%
A'Jon Vivens run for 2 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
25.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:25
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
25.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:34
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
25.1%
Paddy Turner punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 10INT
3 plays · 35 yds · 0:3079% → 80%
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+35
20.8%
Jake Dunniway pass complete to Cameron Skattebo for 35 yds to the ColSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
19.6%
Jake Dunniway pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
19.6%
Jake Dunniway pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11TD
8 plays · 89 yds · 3:4725% → 32%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+10
24.9%
Avery Morrow run for 10 yds to the ColSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
25.0%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the ColSt 22Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+14
24.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 14 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-11
25.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi sacked by Brandon Knott for a loss of 11 yards to the ColSt 25Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 21
OWN 25
+19
24.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 19 yds to the ColSt 44Similar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 2
OWN 44
-1
26.3%
Avery Morrow run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 43Similar
Q2 5:04
4TH & 3
OWN 43
+5
26.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 5 yds to the ColSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
32.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 52 yds for a TD, (Michael Boyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 12FG
9 plays · 49 yds · 1:1770% → 81%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
29.9%
Marcus Fulcher run for 6 yds to the SacSt 31Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+18
29.5%
Jake Dunniway pass complete to Jared Gipson for 18 yds to the SacSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
28.7%
Jake Dunniway run for 9 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 1
OPP 42
0
28.0%
Jake Dunniway pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+4
28.3%
Cameron Skattebo run for 4 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
26.3%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Cameron Skattebo for 12 yds to the ColSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
26.0%
Jake Dunniway pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+45
18.6%
Kyle Sentkowski 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 4:0775% → 78%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
25.1%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jared Gipson for 7 yds to the SacSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
24.7%
Marcus Fulcher run for 7 yds to the SacSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
23.9%
Cameron Skattebo run for 3 yds to the SacSt 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+8
24.0%
Cameron Skattebo run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
0
23.6%
Asher O'Hara run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
50
+3
23.6%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Parker Clayton for 3 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 47
-8
23.8%
Jake Dunniway sacked by Drew Kulick for a loss of 8 yards to the SacSt 45Similar
Q3 10:53
4TH & 15
OWN 45
0
22.2%
Cal McGough punt for 43 yds , Thomas Pannunzio returns for no gain to the ColSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:4623% → 21%
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
23.0%
A'Jon Vivens run for 2 yds to the ColSt 14Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 8
OWN 14
0
22.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+14
22.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 14 yds to the ColSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
23.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+7
23.1%
A'Jon Vivens run for 7 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+2
23.7%
A'Jon Vivens run for 2 yds to the ColSt 37Similar
Q3 8:07
4TH & 1
OWN 37
-5
21.1%
A'Jon Vivens run for a loss of 5 yards to the ColSt 32 A'Jon Vivens fumbled, recovered by SacSt Jeremy HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 15TD
8 plays · 32 yds · 3:0883% → 95%
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
16.8%
Jake Dunniway pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+5
16.9%
Asher O'Hara run for 5 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q3 8:07
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+11
17.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Coleman Kuntz for 11 yds to the ColSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
16.8%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Elijah Tau-Tolliver for 9 yds to the ColSt 7Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+3
16.8%
Cameron Skattebo run for 3 yds to the ColSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
16.8%
Asher O'Hara run for no gain to the ColSt 4Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
16.8%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Elijah Gable for 3 yds Elijah Gable fumbled, recovered by SacStSimilar
Q3 4:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.6%
Asher O'Hara run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kyle Sentkowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:517% → 6%
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
6.8%
David Bailey run for 4 yds to the ColSt 19Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+19
6.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 19 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
7.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
7.1%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
7.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:05
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
6.0%
Paddy Turner punt for 17 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 17FG
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:1596% → 97%
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
4.0%
Asher O'Hara run for a loss of 3 yards to the SacSt 40Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 13
OWN 40
+15
4.0%
Asher O'Hara run for 15 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
3.9%
Cameron Skattebo run for 2 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+10
3.9%
Jake Dunniway pass complete to Elijah Tau-Tolliver for 10 yds to the ColSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
3.8%
Jake Dunniway sacked by Grady Kelly and Cam'Ron Carter for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 34Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+5
3.0%
Cameron Skattebo run for 5 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 29
0
3.1%
Jake Dunniway pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+47
3.3%
Kyle Sentkowski 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:134% → 3%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
3.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 1 yd to the ColSt 26Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
3.6%
Avery Morrow run for 3 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
3.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:37
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+4
2.9%
Paddy Turner punt for 43 yds , Cameron Skattebo returns for 4 yds to the SacSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 19TD
17 plays · 68 yds · 10:0198% → 100%
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
1.9%
Cameron Skattebo run for 6 yds to the SacSt 38Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+8
1.8%
Cameron Skattebo run for 8 yds to the SacSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
1.8%
Cameron Skattebo run for 7 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+4
1.7%
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 4 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
1.7%
Asher O'Hara run for 2 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+4
1.8%
Jake Dunniway pass complete to Pierre Williams for 4 yds to the ColSt 37Similar
Q4 12:48
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+4
1.8%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Marshel Martin for 4 yds to the ColSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
1.7%
Cameron Skattebo run for 1 yd to the ColSt 32Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+4
1.7%
Cameron Skattebo run for 4 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q4 12:48
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+5
1.7%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Marshel Martin for 5 yds to the ColSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
1.6%
Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 7 yds to the ColSt 16Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+8
1.6%
Cameron Skattebo run for 8 yds to the ColSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
1.6%
Cameron Skattebo run for no gain to the ColSt 8Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
1.6%
Asher O'Hara run for 7 yds to the ColSt 1Similar
Q4 12:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
1.6%
Jake Dunniway run for no gain to the ColSt 1Similar
Q4 2:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.1%
Cameron Skattebo run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kyle Sentkowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:170% → 0%
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.1%
Jaylen Thomas run for no gain to the ColSt 25Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
0.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
0.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 7 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q4 1:30
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
0.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:25
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Marcus Fulcher for 14 yds for a TD, (Kyle Sentkowski KICK)
-12.2
TD · Q3 4:59
Asher O'Hara run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kyle Sentkowski KICK)
-12.1
FG · Q2 0:00
Kyle Sentkowski 45 yd FG GOOD
-7.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com