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NEV

Nevada 20 at Air Force 48

AF
2022 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2022 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:21 · Matt Freem punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Amari Terry at the AFA 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 27Pregame prior+39.4Home team on offense+0.2Score differential+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Blowout margin+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 4:36: Matthew Dapore 41 yd FG GOOD — NEV win probability +1.5 pts (now 7%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:16: Nate Cox run for 10 yds for a TD, (Matthew Killam KICK) — NEV win probability +2.4 pts (now 10%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:47: Brad Roberts run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +4.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:54: Brad Roberts run for 9 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +3.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 5:44: Matthew Dapore 51 yd FG GOOD — AF win probability +1.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 5NEV made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 10:16AF 4th & 1 at NEV 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    92.1%−0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    91.6%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:36AF 4th & 16 at NEV 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    89.6%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:21NEV 4th & 8 at NEV 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:55NEV 4th & 9 at NEV 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:05NEV 4th & 4 at NEV 23, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:36NEV 4th & 14 at NEV 21, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:44AF 4th & 6 at NEV 34, up 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.0%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    97.8%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:10NEV 4th & 8 at NEV 27, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:17AF 4th & 1 at NEV 8, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 0:00AF 4th & 1 at AF 34, up 28
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    100.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6NEV made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 2:11AF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:16NEV Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:17AF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:47AF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:54AF Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:25AF Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:17NEV Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:35AF Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:52NEV Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1FG
19 plays · 48 yds · 9:0295% → 93%
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
94.8%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+3
94.8%
Ben Jefferson run for 3 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+16
94.7%
Haaziq Daniels run for 16 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
94.8%
Brad Roberts run for 7 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+2
94.8%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
94.8%
Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
94.1%
Omar Fattah run for 6 yds to the Nevad 37Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+3
94.1%
Ben Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+5
94.1%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the Nevad 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
94.1%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+2
94.1%
Cade Harris run for 2 yds to the Nevad 24Similar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+4
94.1%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the Nevad 20Similar
Q1 10:16
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+2
94.0%
Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the Nevad 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
94.1%
Haaziq Daniels run for 6 yds to the Nevad 12Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+3
94.1%
Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the Nevad 9Similar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 1
OPP 9
-15
94.1%
Daniels,Haaziq rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NEV06 (Peterson,Dom) PENALTY AF Personal Foul (Smalley,Everett) 15 yards from NEV09 to NEV24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 16
OPP 24
0
94.0%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Cade HarrisSimilar
Q1 4:36
4TH & 16
OPP 24
+41
92.6%
Matthew Dapore 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:157% → 8%
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
92.8%
Nate Cox pass complete to Toa Taua for 6 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
92.7%
Devonte Lee run for 2 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q1 4:36
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+9
92.7%
Nate Cox run for 9 yds to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
92.6%
Devonte Lee run for 2 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
92.6%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Jamaal BellSimilar
Q1 4:36
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
92.7%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to BJ CasteelSimilar
Q1 2:21
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
92.1%
Matt Freem punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Amari Terry at the AFA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
93.0%
Ben Brittain pass complete to David Cormier for 80 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:557% → 10%
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
93.2%
Devonte Lee run for 5 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
93.0%
Nate Cox pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 9 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
Q1 2:11
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+16
93.3%
Nate Cox pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 16 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
93.0%
Nate Cox pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 5 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+11
92.5%
Toa Taua run for 11 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
92.4%
Nate Cox pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 15 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
92.2%
Nate Cox run for no gain to the AFA 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+15
92.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Cox,Nate pass incomplete short right to Casteel,BJ PENALTY AF Pass Interference (Goff,Camby) 15 yards from AF 32 to AF 17, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
92.1%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the AFA 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+5
92.1%
Nate Cox pass complete to Toa Taua for 5 yds to the AFA 10Similar
Q2 12:16
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+10
89.7%
Nate Cox run for 10 yds for a TD, (Matthew Killam KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 13:385% → 9%
Q1 13:38
3RD & 12
OWN 33
0
94.8%
Matt Freem punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Amari Terry at the AFA 28Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
91.2%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 37Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+1
91.2%
Nate Cox run for 1 yd to the Nevad 38Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 38
-5
91.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Cox,Nate pass incomplete short left to Bell,Jamaal QB hurried by Blackmon,TD PENALTY NEV False Start (Taua,Toa) 5 yards from NEV38 to NEV33. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5990% → 92%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
90.3%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 12 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
90.6%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 12 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
90.9%
Brad Roberts run for 9 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+3
91.0%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
91.1%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 8 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+4
91.2%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the Nevad 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
92.1%
Brad Roberts run for 27 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
91.5%
Dapore,Matthew kickoff 65 yards to the NEV00, Touchback PENALTY AF Offside (Breier,Cameron) 5 yards from AF 35 to AF 30. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:178% → 8%
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
91.9%
Toa Taua run for 11 yds to the Nevad 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
91.7%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 34Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 9
OWN 34
0
91.7%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to BJ CasteelSimilar
Q2 9:12
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
92.1%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Spencer CurtisSimilar
Q2 7:55
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
92.1%
Harry Webster punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Amari Terry at the AFA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8TD
15 plays · 77 yds · 7:0891% → 96%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
91.4%
Brad Roberts run for 7 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+1
91.6%
Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the AFA 29Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+4
91.2%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 4 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-15
91.5%
Daniels,Haaziq pass incomplete short middle to Harris,Cade PENALTY NEV Pass Interference (Robbins,Zeke) 15 yards from AF 33 to AF 48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
92.0%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 8
50
+14
92.0%
Haaziq Daniels run for 14 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
92.1%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+6
92.1%
Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the Nevad 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+16
91.5%
Brad Roberts run for 26 yds AIR FORCE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ben Jefferson) to the Nevad 25Similar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 9
OPP 25
+4
91.5%
Omar Fattah run for 4 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+9
91.5%
Omar Fattah run for 9 yds to the Nevad 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
91.5%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the Nevad 7Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+3
91.5%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Nevad 4Similar
Q2 3:38
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+3
91.1%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Nevad 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.5%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:386% → 5%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
94.5%
Nate Cox pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 6 yds to the Nevad 23Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 4
OWN 23
0
94.4%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to BJ CasteelSimilar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 4
OWN 23
0
94.7%
NEVADA Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 4
OWN 23
0
94.8%
Harry Webster punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
95.2%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 3:0695% → 98%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
95.0%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 7 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+5
95.1%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
95.2%
Haaziq Daniels sacked by Jaden Dedman for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 37
+6
95.1%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 6 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+48
95.0%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 48 yds to the Nevad 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
97.9%
Brad Roberts run for 9 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:182% → 2%
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.7%
Nate Cox run for 3 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
97.6%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Jacob MunroSimilar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
97.7%
PENALTY NEV False Start (Starck,Grant) 5 yards from NEV28 to NEV23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+2
97.8%
Nate Cox pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 2 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
Q3 10:36
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
98.0%
Matt Freem punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Amari Terry at the AFA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13FG
9 plays · 25 yds · 4:5298% → 100%
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
98.0%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+5
98.0%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 5 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
98.0%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+6
98.0%
Jensen Jones run for 6 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+3
98.0%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
98.0%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 14
OPP 42
0
98.0%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to David CormierSimilar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 14
OPP 42
+8
97.9%
Jensen Jones run for 8 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q3 5:44
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+51
99.7%
Matthew Dapore 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:270% → 0%
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Dalevon CampbellSimilar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.7%
Nate Cox pass complete to Toa Taua for 6 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
99.7%
Nate Cox run for 4 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q3 4:10
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
99.8%
Harry Webster punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Amari Terry at the AFA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 3:45100% → 100%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
99.8%
Omar Fattah run for 11 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
99.8%
PENALTY AF False Start (Holcomb,Kaleb) 5 yards from AF 46 to AF 41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+5
99.8%
Omar Fattah run for 5 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+9
99.8%
Omar Fattah run for 9 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+5
99.7%
Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
99.8%
Amari Terry run for 14 yds to the Nevad 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
99.8%
Emmanuel Michel run for 26 yds for a TD, (Anthony Rodriguez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:430% → 0%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.9%
Nate Cox pass complete to Dazure Paggett for 9 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Devonte Lee run for no gain to the Nevad 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+11
99.9%
Devonte Lee run for 11 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
99.9%
Nate Cox pass complete to BJ Casteel for 15 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
99.9%
Toa Taua run for 40 yds for a TD, (Matthew Killam KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 9:42100% → 100%
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
Jet Harris run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
99.9%
Jet Harris run for 2 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q4 13:17
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
99.9%
Ben Brittain run for 4 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
99.9%
Jet Harris run for 3 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+19
99.9%
Ben Brittain run for 19 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
99.9%
Jet Harris run for 5 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+9
99.9%
Jet Harris run for 9 yds to the Nevad 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
99.9%
Jet Harris run for 2 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+5
99.9%
Jet Harris run for 5 yds to the Nevad 22Similar
Q4 13:17
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+5
99.8%
Jet Harris run for 5 yds to the Nevad 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
99.9%
Jet Harris run for 9 yds to the Nevad 8Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 1
OPP 8
0
99.8%
Jet Harris run for no gain to the Nevad 8Similar
Q4 13:17
3RD & 1
OPP 8
0
99.8%
Jet Harris run for no gain to the Nevad 8Similar
Q4 13:17
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+2
99.8%
Ben Brittain run for 2 yds to the Nevad 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.9%
Aiden Calvert run for 6 yds for a TD, (Anthony Rodriguez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18TD
3 plays · 64 yds · 0:330% → 0%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+58
100.0%
Nate Cox pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 58 yds to the AFA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.9%
Toa Taua run for 6 yds for a TD, (Matthew Killam PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19END OF GAME
5 plays · 12 yds · 2:52100% → 100%
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Owen Burk run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
99.9%
Cannon Turner run for 3 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q4 2:52
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
99.9%
Owen Burk run for 4 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
99.9%
Owen Burk run for 3 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:47
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)
+4.4
TD · Q3 11:54
Brad Roberts run for 9 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)
+3
TD · Q2 12:16
Nate Cox run for 10 yds for a TD, (Matthew Killam KICK)
-2.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com