2022 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2022 · CEFCU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadPRST aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scorePRST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:06 · Travis Benham punt for 49 yds , returns for no gain to the PrtSt 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differential
This game in five plays
- FG · Q3 4:50: Gianni Smith 28 yd FG GOOD — PRST win probability +2.7 pts (now 19%) (top driver: PRST has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:57: Dante Chachere pass complete to Beau Kelly for 12 yds for a TD, (Gianni Smith KICK) — PRST win probability +35.3 pts (now 57%) (top driver: PRST has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 6:20: Kairee Robinson run for 14 yds to the PrtSt 9 for a 1ST down — SJSU win probability +15.7 pts (now 57%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 2:25: Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete — SJSU win probability +25.9 pts (now 53%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:11: Chevan Cordeiro run for 2 yds for a TD, (Taren Schive KICK) — SJSU win probability +42.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9PRST made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 1:38PRST 4th & 5 at PRST 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snapGo for it12.3%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.3%average punt
- Q1 15:00SJSU 4th & 17 at SJSU 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 91.8% before the snapGo for it91.7%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.9%average punt
- Q1 15:00SJSU 4th & 17 at SJSU 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 91.8% before the snapGo for it91.7%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.9%average punt
- Q2 13:02PRST 4th & 7 at PRST 28, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snapGo for it10.7%−0.236% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.0%average punt
- Q2 11:13SJSU 4th & 2 at SJSU 43, up 7Close callPunted · 88.7% before the snapGo for it88.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.5%−0.3average punt
- Q2 4:46SJSU 4th & 2 at PRST 39, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call88.0%57% to convertField goal87.2%−0.836% to makePunt87.2%−0.8average punt
- Q3 13:50PRST 4th & 7 at PRST 21, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snapGo for it12.2%−1.035% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.2%average punt
- Q3 11:56SJSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 48, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 86.6% before the snapGo for it86.8%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.3%−1.5average punt
- Q3 4:50PRST 4th & 16 at SJSU 18, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.8% before the snapGo for it12.5%−2.214% to convertField goalTheir call14.7%79% to makePunt8.7%−6.0average punt
- Q3 2:28SJSU 4th & 14 at PRST 37, up 4Close callPunted · 79.4% before the snapGo for it78.8%−1.219% to convertField goal79.9%40% to makePuntTheir call79.6%−0.3average punt
- Q3 0:00PRST 4th & 2 at SJSU 43, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call24.9%57% to convertField goal21.6%−3.228% to makePunt22.7%−2.2average punt
- Q4 12:06PRST 4th & 2 at SJSU 19, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call26.8%56% to convertField goal25.2%−1.677% to makePunt15.0%−11.8average punt
- Q4 9:06SJSU 4th & 24 at SJSU 21, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snapGo for it37.5%−7.86% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.3%average punt
- Q4 7:00SJSU 4th & 12 at PRST 20, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.2% before the snapGo for it40.9%−8.122% to convertField goalTheir call49.0%75% to makePunt31.4%−17.6average punt
- Q4 4:03SJSU 4th & 1 at PRST 1, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call53.7%59% to convertField goal47.7%−6.094% to makePunt22.8%−30.9average punt
- Q4 2:25PRST 4th & 2 at PRST 9, up 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 72.8% before the snapGo for it70.0%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.2%−1.8average punt
- Q4 1:06PRST 4th & 5 at PRST 35, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.4%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt8.2%−5.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SJSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3PRST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 7:21PRST Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call11.2%97% to makeGo for two11.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:46SJSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.4%97% to makeGo for two88.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:05SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.7%97% to makeGo for two88.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:57PRST Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.4%97% to makeGo for two45.2%−1.145% to convert
- Q4 1:11SJSU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.8%97% to makeGo for two80.3%−0.645% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartPRSTDrive 1TD9 plays · 66 yds · 5:127% → 10%
Q1 12:33
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+16
92.9%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Beau Kelly for 16 yds to the SJSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
92.8%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Nate Bennett for 14 yds to the SJSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
92.8%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Emmanuel Daigbe for 6 yds to the SJSt 27Similar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
90.0%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Maclaine Griffin for 11 yds for a TD, (Gianni Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 2TD8 plays · 88 yds · 3:3190% → 91%
PRSTDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 2:0810% → 10%
Q1 1:38
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
89.6%
George Triplett punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Hamilton at the SJSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+10
93.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 10 yds to the SJSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 29
-7
93.4%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Parker McKenna for a loss of 7 yards to the SJSt 22Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 22
+13
93.4%
Travis Benham punt for 57 yds , Beau Kelly returns for 13 yds to the PrtSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 22
+13
93.4%
Travis Benham punt for 57 yds , Beau Kelly returns for 13 yds to the PrtSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5TD8 plays · 76 yds · 2:3390% → 91%
Q1 1:38
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+15
89.7%
(01:15) CORDEIRO, Chevan pass to the left incomplete intended for GARRETT, Shamar thrown to the SJS25. PENALTY PSU Roughing the Passer on MALO, VJ enforced 15 yards from the SJS28 to the SJS43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 3
50
+32
89.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 32 yds to the PrtSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-9
89.8%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Tyreese Shakir for a loss of 9 yards to the PrtSt 27Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 19
OPP 27
+26
89.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 26 yds to the PrtSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Sam Olson for 1 yd for a TD, (Taren Schive KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:039% → 9%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 1:4991% → 90%
Q2 13:02
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
90.5%
(12:18) CORDEIRO, Chevan pass to the right incomplete intended for LOCKHART, Justin broken up by AVERY, Isaiah at the PSU41. PENALTY PSU Offsides on FREEMAN, Kennedy enforced 5 yards from the SJS30 to the SJS35 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:13
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
90.2%
Travis Benham punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Beau Kelly at the PrtSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 8INT6 plays · 73 yds · 2:5610% → 12%
Q2 11:13
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+10
90.2%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Maclaine Griffin for 10 yds to the PrtSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
90.0%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Beau Kelly for 14 yds to the PrtSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 3
OWN 47
0
89.4%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Offsides (Viliami Fehoko) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 9DOWNS8 plays · 48 yds · 3:3190% → 90%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+16
89.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 16 yds to the SJSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+30
89.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 30 yds to the PrtSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 15
OWN 48
-8
90.0%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by VJ Malo for a loss of 8 yards to the SJSt 40Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 23
OWN 40
+21
89.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 21 yds to the PrtSt 39Similar
Q2 4:46
4TH & 2
OPP 39
-4
89.9%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Jake Porter for a loss of 4 yards to the PrtSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 10END OF HALF11 plays · 56 yds · 4:4611% → 14%
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
88.9%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Nate Bennett for 6 yds to the PrtSt 49Similar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+6
88.5%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Beau Kelly for 6 yds to the SJSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
87.9%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Nate Bennett for 1 yd to the SJSt 30Similar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+19
87.9%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Beau Kelly for 19 yds to the SJSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0412% → 11%
SJSUDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5489% → 88%
PRSTDrive 13FG14 plays · 70 yds · 6:3013% → 19%
Q3 11:11
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+15
86.8%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Rico Tolefree) to the PrtSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+15
85.9%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Targeting on WHITE, Tre enforced (Tre White) to the SJSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
83.1%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Emmanuel Daigbe for 11 yds to the SJSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
82.7%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Andrew Van Buren for 4 yds to the SJSt 20Similar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
82.7%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Emmanuel Daigbe for 2 yds to the SJSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 38 yds · 2:2282% → 81%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
82.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 16 yds to the SJSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+26
84.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 26 yds to the PrtSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
84.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Shamar Garrett for 4 yds to the PrtSt 29Similar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 6
OPP 29
-8
84.0%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Robert Holt for a loss of 8 yards to the PrtSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 15TD18 plays · 99 yds · 7:3120% → 57%
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+48
80.1%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Nate Bennett for 48 yds to the PrtSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+6
75.7%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Emmanuel Daigbe for 6 yds to the SJSt 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+7
77.1%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Nate Bennett for 7 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+5
76.8%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Beau Kelly for 5 yds to the SJSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
77.7%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Andrew Van Buren for 4 yds to the SJSt 7Similar
Q4 9:57
3RD & 11
OPP 12
+12
42.7%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Beau Kelly for 12 yds for a TD, (Gianni Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 16PUNT4 plays · -14 yds · 0:5154% → 49%
SJSUDrive 17MISSED FG6 plays · 9 yds · 2:0661% → 48%
PRSTDrive 18INT2 plays · 1 yds · 0:4058% → 59%
SJSUDrive 19DOWNS6 plays · 22 yds · 2:1757% → 45%
Q4 6:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+12
56.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 12 yds to the PrtSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3868% → 73%
Q4 2:25
4TH & 2
OWN 9
+19
26.9%
George Triplett punt for 42 yds , Isaiah Hamilton returns for 19 yds to the PrtSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 21TD9 plays · 32 yds · 1:1453% → 95%
Q4 2:25
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+4
52.7%
CORDEIRO, Chevan sacked for a loss of 4 yards at the PSU21 (HOLT, Robert). PENALTY PSU Face mask on ANE, E.J. enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the PSU17 to the PSU8 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
52.7%
CORDEIRO, Chevan pass to the left incomplete intended for COOKS, Elijah broken up by ADAMS, Anthony at the PSU0. PENALTY PSU Pass Interference on ADAMS, Anthony enforced 6 yards to the PSU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+15
48.2%
CORDEIRO, Chevan pass to the left incomplete intended for COOKS, Elijah thrown to the PSU3. PENALTY PSU Pass Interference on AVERY, Isaiah enforced 15 yards to the PSU17 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:11
Chevan Cordeiro run for 2 yds for a TD, (Taren Schive KICK)
+42
TD · Q4 9:57
Dante Chachere pass complete to Beau Kelly for 12 yds for a TD, (Gianni Smith KICK)
-35.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:25
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete
+25.9