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TXST

Texas State 14 at Nevada 38

NEV
2022 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2022 · Mackay Stadium
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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:49 · S.O'Kelly punts 46 yards to NEV 27, Center-D.Harris. Fair catch by B.Sanders.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 84Home team on offense+5.5Score differential+1.3Garbage-time factor−0.4Blowout margin+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.2Pregame prior−2.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:38: D.Lee rushed to TXST End Zone for 5 yards. D.Lee for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. — NEV win probability +6.9 pts (now 61%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:07: L.Hatcher pass complete to NEV 20. Catch made by A.Hawkins at NEV 20. Gain of 20 yards. A.Hawkins for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. — TXST win probability +9.2 pts (now 41%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 11:52: T.Taua rushed to TXST 37 for -2 yards. Tackled by L.Bell at TXST 37. — NEV win probability +6.3 pts (now 70%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:43: N.Cox rushed to TXST End Zone for 8 yards. N.Cox for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. — NEV win probability +12.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:07: T.Taua rushed to TXST End Zone for 2 yards. T.Taua for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. — NEV win probability +5.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 7 of 10TXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:10TXST 4th & 2 at NEV 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    52.7%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    52.6%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:00NEV 4th & 5 at NEV 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:40TXST 4th & 3 at TXST 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:47TXST 4th & 12 at TXST 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%−1.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:21NEV 4th & 4 at NEV 26, up 14
    Close callPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:26TXST 4th & 5 at NEV 48, down 14
    Close callPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:18NEV 4th & 13 at NEV 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−2.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:31NEV 4th & 8 at NEV 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−1.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:49TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−1.3
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:46NEV 4th & 9 at NEV 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−1.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:26NEV 4th & 7 at TXST 32, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.4%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    66.2%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:20NEV 4th & 16 at TXST 47, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:51NEV 4th & 5 at TXST 20, up 30
    Close callWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:35NEV 4th & 3 at TXST 7, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:10TXST 4th & 7 at TXST 8, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:52NEV 4th & 10 at NEV 42, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 4:20NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:38NEV Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:07TXST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:43NEV Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:07NEV Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1DOWNS
14 plays · 43 yds · 4:5055% → 54%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
45.3%
C.Hill rushed to TXST 32 for 7 yards. Tackled by T.Mack at TXST 32.Similar
Q1 14:31
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
45.4%
L.Hatcher pass complete to TXST 32. Catch made by A.Hawkins at TXST 32. Gain of 4 yards. Tackled by T.Mack at TXST 36.Similar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
45.6%
C.Hill rushed to TXST 35 for -1 yards. Tackled by M.Walker; M.Wilmer at TXST 35.Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
45.7%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher pass incomplete intended for J.Ortega-Jones.Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+13
45.7%
L.Hatcher pass complete to TXST 35. Catch made by R.Groves at TXST 35. Gain of 13 yards. Tackled by T.Williams at TXST 48.Similar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
45.6%
C.Hill rushed to TXST 49 for 1 yards. Tackled by T.Williams at TXST 49.Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+8
45.7%
L.Hatcher pass complete to TXST 49. Catch made by R.Groves at TXST 49. Gain of 8 yards. Tackled by B.Sanders at NEV 43.Similar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+4
45.7%
C.Hill rushed to NEV 39 for 4 yards. Tackled by C.Swint at NEV 39.Similar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
45.7%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher pass incomplete intended for TXST.Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
45.8%
J.Jeter rushed to NEV 35 for 4 yards. Tackled by T.Williams at NEV 35. PENALTY on TXST-K.Hergel, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, accepted.Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 16
OPP 45
-4
46.0%
L.Hatcher pass complete to NEV 45. Catch made by A.Hawkins at NEV 45. Gain of -4 yards. Tackled by A.Weynand at NEV 49.Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 20
OPP 49
0
46.3%
PENALTY on TXST-C.Brown, False Start, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 25
OWN 46
+23
46.4%
L.Hatcher pass complete to TXST 46. Catch made by A.Hawkins at TXST 46. Gain of 23 yards. Tackled by B.Sanders at NEV 31.Similar
Q1 10:10
4TH & 2
OPP 31
-1
46.3%
J.Jeter rushed to NEV 32 for -1 yards. Tackled by T.Witte; T.Williams at NEV 32.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4747% → 47%
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
46.8%
D.Lee rushed to NEV 30 for -2 yards. Tackled by L.Bell at NEV 30.Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+6
46.8%
S.Illingworth pass complete to NEV 30. Catch made by T.Mack at NEV 30. Gain of 6 yards. Tackled by T.Spears at NEV 36.Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+1
46.7%
S.Illingworth rushed to NEV 37 for 1 yards. Tackled by L.Bell at NEV 37.Similar
Q1 8:00
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
46.7%
M.Freem punts 53 yards to TXST 10, Center-N.Barcelos. R.Groves returned punt from the TXST 10. Tackled by C.Patton at TXST 36. PENALTY on TXST-TXST, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, accepted.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1653% → 52%
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
46.8%
C.Hill rushed to TXST 3 for -2 yards. Tackled by B.Sanders at TXST 3.Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 12
OWN 3
+9
47.1%
L.Hatcher pass complete to TXST 3. Catch made by A.Hawkins at TXST 3. Gain of 9 yards. Tackled by Z.Robbins; T.Mack at TXST 12.Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 3
OWN 12
0
47.6%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher pass incomplete intended for R.Groves.Similar
Q1 6:40
4TH & 3
OWN 12
+43
47.9%
S.O'Kelly punts 43 yards to NEV 45, Center-D.Harris. Fair catch by B.Sanders.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 2:1348% → 53%
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
48.1%
T.Taua rushed to NEV 45 for 0 yards. Tackled by S.Tupou at NEV 45.Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+18
47.9%
S.Illingworth pass complete to NEV 45. Catch made by J.Bell at NEV 45. Gain of 18 yards. Pushed out of bounds by T.Spears at TXST 37.Similar
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
48.5%
T.Taua rushed to TXST 36 for 1 yards. Tackled by S.Tupou; N.Mbanasor at TXST 36.Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+31
48.7%
S.Illingworth pass complete to TXST 36. Catch made by J.Bell at TXST 36. Gain of 31 yards. Tackled by K.Rodgers at TXST 5.Similar
Q1 4:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
49.1%
T.Taua rushed to TXST 4 for 1 yards. Tackled by J.Morris; L.Bell at TXST 4.Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
53.3%
T.Taua rushed to TXST End Zone for 4 yards. T.Taua for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:2848% → 48%
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
51.9%
L.Hatcher pass complete to TXST 26. Catch made by A.Hawkins at TXST 26. Gain of 4 yards. Tackled by T.Williams at TXST 30.Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
51.9%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher pass incomplete intended for D.Robinson.Similar
Q1 3:44
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
52.5%
L.Hatcher pass INTERCEPTED at TXST 35. Intercepted by B.Sanders at TXST 35. Tackled by TXST at TXST 35.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6TD
5 plays · 35 yds · 2:0154% → 61%
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+18
53.8%
S.Illingworth pass complete to TXST 35. Catch made by D.Campbell at TXST 35. Gain of 18 yards. Tackled by J.Morris at TXST 17.Similar
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
54.1%
T.Taua rushed to TXST 17 for 0 yards. Tackled by N.Ezidore; B.Bell at TXST 17.Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
54.4%
T.Taua rushed to TXST 17 for 0 yards. Tackled by J.Morris; D.Ratcliff at TXST 17.Similar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+12
54.1%
D.Lee rushed to TXST 5 for 12 yards. Tackled by K.Anderson; T.Spears at TXST 5.Similar
Q1 1:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
61.0%
D.Lee rushed to TXST End Zone for 5 yards. D.Lee for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 1:4342% → 40%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
58.4%
J.Jeter rushed to TXST 34 for 9 yards. Tackled by J.Bradley; M.Wilmer at TXST 34.Similar
Q1 1:05
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
58.1%
L.Hatcher pass complete to TXST 34. Catch made by A.Hawkins at TXST 34. Gain of 0 yards. Tackled by A.Weynand at TXST 34.Similar
Q1 0:39
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
58.9%
J.Jeter rushed to TXST 39 for 5 yards. Tackled by T.Williams at TXST 39.Similar
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
59.1%
L.Hatcher pass complete to TXST 39. Catch made by D.Gregory at TXST 39. Gain of 3 yards. Tackled by D.Washington at TXST 42.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
59.2%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher pass incomplete intended for A.Hawkins.Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
59.4%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher pass incomplete intended for R.Groves.Similar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
60.0%
PENALTY on TXST-TXST, Delay of Game, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 12
OWN 37
+63
60.3%
S.O'Kelly punts 63 yards to NEV End Zone, Center-D.Harris. Touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1962% → 62%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
62.1%
S.Illingworth pass complete to NEV 20. Catch made by J.Bell at NEV 20. Gain of 6 yards. Tackled by D.Mask at NEV 26.Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
62.7%
T.Taua rushed to NEV 26 for 0 yards. Tackled by N.Ezidore; D.Sears at NEV 26.Similar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
62.8%
S.Illingworth steps back to pass. S.Illingworth pass incomplete intended for B.Casteel.Similar
Q2 13:21
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+44
62.3%
M.Freem punts 44 yards to TXST 30, Center-N.Barcelos. Out of bounds.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:4639% → 36%
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
61.5%
J.Jeter rushed to TXST 33 for 3 yards. Tackled by M.Walker at TXST 33.Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+5
61.8%
L.Hatcher pass complete to TXST 33. Catch made by J.Banks at TXST 33. Gain of 5 yards. Tackled by J.Dedman; B.Sanders at TXST 38.Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+9
61.7%
L.Hatcher pass complete to TXST 38. Catch made by R.Groves at TXST 38. Gain of 9 yards. Tackled by T.Williams at TXST 47.Similar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
61.9%
L.Hatcher pass complete to TXST 47. Catch made by M.Barbee at TXST 47. Gain of -1 yards. Pushed out of bounds by I.Essissima; N.Mateialona at TXST 46.Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+6
62.9%
L.Hatcher pass complete to TXST 46. Catch made by J.Ortega-Jones at TXST 46. Gain of 6 yards. Tackled by T.Mack at NEV 48.Similar
Q2 10:29
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
62.8%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher pass incomplete intended for D.Gregory.Similar
Q2 10:26
4TH & 5
OPP 48
+48
63.9%
S.O'Kelly punts 48 yards to NEV End Zone, Center-D.Harris. Touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 3:0067% → 67%
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
66.5%
T.Taua rushed to NEV 21 for 1 yards. Tackled by S.Tupou; L.Bell at NEV 21.Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+8
66.9%
S.Illingworth pass complete to NEV 21. Catch made by T.Mack at NEV 21. Gain of 8 yards. Tackled by B.Bell at NEV 29.Similar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+5
67.1%
T.Taua rushed to NEV 34 for 5 yards. Tackled by A.Edwards; B.Bell at NEV 34.Similar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-3
68.1%
S.Illingworth steps back to pass. S.Illingworth sacked at NEV 31 for -3 yards (L.Harris)Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 13
OWN 31
0
67.3%
D.Lee rushed to NEV 31 for 0 yards. Tackled by D.Sears at NEV 31.Similar
Q2 7:26
3RD & 13
OWN 31
0
67.5%
S.Illingworth steps back to pass. S.Illingworth pass incomplete intended for B.Casteel.Similar
Q2 7:18
4TH & 13
OWN 31
+36
66.9%
M.Freem punts 36 yards to TXST 33, Center-N.Barcelos. Fair catch by R.Groves.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 4:0433% → 41%
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
67.1%
C.Hill rushed to TXST 34 for 1 yards. Tackled by D.Watts at TXST 34.Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 9
OWN 34
-7
67.9%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher sacked at TXST 27 for -7 yards (D.Peterson) PENALTY on NEV-NEV, Personal Foul / Defense, 15 yards, accepted.Similar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
67.6%
C.Hill rushed to TXST 45 for 3 yards. Tackled by D.Watts at TXST 45.Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
67.3%
C.Hill rushed to TXST 45 for 0 yards. Tackled by D.Togiola at TXST 45. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble and the play was upheld.Similar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+22
68.2%
L.Hatcher pass complete to TXST 45. Catch made by A.Hawkins at TXST 45. Gain of 22 yards. Tackled by T.Mack at NEV 33.Similar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
66.8%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher pass incomplete intended for A.Hawkins. PENALTY on TXST-R.West, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 20
OPP 43
+4
68.7%
L.Hatcher pass complete to NEV 43. Catch made by D.Robinson at NEV 43. Gain of 4 yards. Tackled by T.Williams at NEV 39.Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 16
OPP 39
+16
69.3%
L.Hatcher pass complete to NEV 39. Catch made by R.Groves at NEV 39. Gain of 16 yards. Tackled by NEV at NEV 23.Similar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
67.4%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher pass incomplete intended for C.Brown.Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+3
67.9%
L.Hatcher pass complete to NEV 23. Catch made by L.Pare at NEV 23. Gain of 3 yards. Tackled by T.Williams at NEV 20.Similar
Q2 3:07
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+20
58.7%
L.Hatcher pass complete to NEV 20. Catch made by A.Hawkins at NEV 20. Gain of 20 yards. A.Hawkins for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:3163% → 61%
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
63.0%
S.Illingworth pass complete to NEV 25. Catch made by J.Bell at NEV 25. Gain of 1 yards. Tackled by D.Mask at NEV 26.Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-2
62.9%
T.Taua rushed to NEV 24 for -2 yards. Tackled by D.Sears; J.Revels at NEV 24.Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+16
62.0%
S.Illingworth pass complete to NEV 24. Catch made by J.Bell at NEV 24. Gain of 16 yards. Pushed out of bounds by K.Rodgers at NEV 40. PENALTY on NEV-B.Casteel, Offensive Pass Interference, 12 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 23
OWN 12
+15
62.0%
T.Taua rushed to NEV 27 for 15 yards. Tackled by T.Spears at NEV 27.Similar
Q2 1:31
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+52
61.3%
M.Freem punts 52 yards to TXST 21, Center-N.Barcelos. Downed by NEV.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:3138% → 35%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
62.5%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher pass incomplete intended for A.Hawkins.Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+6
62.8%
L.Hatcher pass complete to TXST 21. Catch made by L.Pare at TXST 21. Gain of 6 yards. Tackled by I.Essissima at TXST 27.Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 4
OWN 27
0
63.3%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher pass incomplete intended for A.Hawkins.Similar
Q2 0:49
4TH & 4
OWN 27
+46
64.6%
S.O'Kelly punts 46 yards to NEV 27, Center-D.Harris. Fair catch by B.Sanders.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14END OF HALF
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:2764% → 64%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
64.2%
S.Illingworth pass complete to NEV 27. Catch made by B.Casteel at NEV 27. Gain of 7 yards. Tackled by J.Revels at NEV 34.Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+1
65.5%
S.Illingworth pass complete to NEV 34. Catch made by D.Lee at NEV 34. Gain of 1 yards. Tackled by J.Revels at NEV 35.Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+4
64.4%
T.Taua rushed to NEV 39 for 4 yards. Tackled by J.Revels; L.Bell at NEV 39.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1066% → 64%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
65.7%
S.Illingworth pass complete to NEV 36. Catch made by J.Bell at NEV 36. Gain of -2 yards. Tackled by J.Morris at NEV 34.Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+7
64.9%
S.Illingworth pass complete to NEV 34. Catch made by J.Munro at NEV 34. Gain of 7 yards. Tackled by K.Rodgers; A.Edwards at NEV 41.Similar
Q3 14:19
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-4
65.9%
NEV rushed to NEV 37 for -4 yards. Tackled by TXST at NEV 37.Similar
Q3 13:46
4TH & 9
OWN 37
+46
63.5%
M.Freem punts 46 yards to TXST 17, Center-N.Barcelos. Out of bounds.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16FG
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2670% → 73%
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
69.8%
T.Taua rushed to TXST 37 for -2 yards. Tackled by L.Bell at TXST 37.Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+3
69.2%
N.Cox rushed to TXST 34 for 3 yards. Tackled by S.Tupou at TXST 34.Similar
Q3 11:04
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+7
68.8%
N.Cox pass complete to TXST 34. Catch made by T.Taua at TXST 34. Gain of 7 yards. Tackled by T.Spears at TXST 27.Similar
Q3 10:26
4TH & 2
OPP 27
0
68.0%
PENALTY on NEV-Z.Welch, False Start, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q3 10:26
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+50
72.7%
B.Talton 50 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-N.Barcelos, Holder-M.Freem.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17FUMBLE
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:1228% → 28%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.2%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher pass incomplete intended for D.Robinson. PENALTY on TXST-TXST, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+3
72.4%
L.Hatcher pass complete to TXST 15. Catch made by A.Hawkins at TXST 15. Gain of 3 yards. Tackled by J.Dedman at TXST 18.Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+14
73.5%
L.Hatcher pass complete to TXST 18. Catch made by J.Banks at TXST 18. Gain of 14 yards. Tackled by I.Essissima at TXST 32.Similar
Q3 9:02
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
73.6%
L.Hatcher pass complete to TXST 32. Catch made by J.Ortega-Jones at TXST 32. Gain of 8 yards. Tackled by T.Mack at TXST 40.Similar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
72.4%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher pass incomplete intended for J.Banks.Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
72.8%
L.Hatcher pass complete to TXST 40. Catch made by L.Pare at TXST 40. Gain of 6 yards. Tackled by R.Toney at TXST 46.Similar
Q3 8:08
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+12
72.4%
L.Pare rushed to NEV 42 for 12 yards. L.Pare FUMBLES, forced by B.Sanders. Fumble RECOVERED by NEV-M.Wilmer at NEV 42. Tackled by TXST at TXST 45.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18TD
6 plays · 45 yds · 2:1977% → 91%
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
76.6%
N.Cox pass complete to TXST 45. Catch made by C.Brown at TXST 45. Gain of 8 yards. Tackled by L.Harris at TXST 37.Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+5
77.6%
D.Lee rushed to TXST 32 for 5 yards. Tackled by K.Anderson at TXST 32.Similar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
78.2%
T.Taua rushed to TXST 32 for 0 yards. Tackled by S.Tupou; N.Ezidore at TXST 32.Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+17
78.5%
N.Cox pass complete to TXST 32. Catch made by J.Munro at TXST 32. Gain of 17 yards. Tackled by J.Morris at TXST 15.Similar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
78.7%
N.Cox rushed to TXST 8 for 7 yards. Tackled by K.Anderson at TXST 8.Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+8
90.9%
N.Cox rushed to TXST End Zone for 8 yards. N.Cox for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19TD
2 plays · 20 yds · 0:2292% → 97%
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+18
91.6%
N.Cox rushed to TXST 2 for 18 yards. Tackled by S.Tupou at TXST 2.Similar
Q3 4:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.7%
T.Taua rushed to TXST End Zone for 2 yards. T.Taua for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:054% → 1%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.1%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher pass incomplete intended for J.Banks.Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-34
99.3%
L.Hatcher pass INTERCEPTED at TXST 34. Intercepted by B.Sanders at TXST 34. B.Sanders for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:40100% → 100%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
99.5%
N.Cox rushed to NEV 40 for 1 yards. Tackled by K.Anderson at NEV 40.Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+4
99.6%
C.Patton rushed to NEV 44 for 4 yards. Tackled by S.Tupou at NEV 44.Similar
Q3 1:01
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
99.6%
N.Cox steps back to pass. N.Cox pass incomplete intended for B.Casteel. PENALTY on TXST-C.Mills, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-17
99.6%
N.Cox steps back to pass. N.Cox sacked at NEV 42 for -17 yards (L.Bell)Similar
Q3 0:10
2ND & 27
OWN 42
+6
99.6%
N.Cox pass complete to NEV 42. Catch made by J.Bell at NEV 42. Gain of 6 yards. Tackled by J.Morris at NEV 48.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 21
OWN 48
+5
99.6%
N.Cox pass complete to NEV 48. Catch made by T.Taua at NEV 48. Gain of 5 yards. Tackled by L.Bell; L.Harris at TXST 47.Similar
Q4 14:20
4TH & 16
OPP 47
+20
99.6%
M.Freem punts 20 yards to TXST 27, Center-N.Barcelos. Out of bounds.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 20 yds · 3:02100% → 100%
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
99.8%
N.Cox steps back to pass. N.Cox pass incomplete intended for C.Brown.Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
99.8%
C.Patton rushed to TXST 20 for 5 yards. Tackled by S.Tupou at TXST 20.Similar
Q4 11:57
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
99.8%
N.Cox steps back to pass. N.Cox pass incomplete intended for T.Mack.Similar
Q4 11:51
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+6
99.8%
N.Cox rushed to TXST 14 for 6 yards. Pushed out of bounds by K.Anderson at TXST 14.Similar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
99.8%
C.Patton rushed to TXST 12 for 2 yards. Tackled by L.Harris; D.Ratcliff at TXST 12.Similar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+2
99.8%
C.Patton rushed to TXST 10 for 2 yards. Tackled by I.Nixon at TXST 10.Similar
Q4 10:22
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+3
99.8%
T.Taua rushed to TXST 7 for 3 yards. Tackled by C.Mills at TXST 7.Similar
Q4 9:35
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+2
99.8%
T.Taua rushed to TXST 5 for 2 yards. Tackled by J.Revels; B.Holloway at TXST 5.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:200% → 0%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
99.9%
J.Jeter rushed to TXST 5 for 0 yards. Tackled by J.Bradley; C.Smalley at TXST 5.Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+3
99.9%
J.Jeter rushed to TXST 8 for 3 yards. Tackled by P.Huff; D.Watts at TXST 8.Similar
Q4 8:19
3RD & 7
OWN 8
0
99.9%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher pass incomplete intended for D.Gregory.Similar
Q4 8:10
4TH & 7
OWN 8
+54
99.9%
S.O'Kelly punts 54 yards to NEV 38, Center-D.Harris. B.Sanders returned punt from the NEV 38. Tackled by I.Nixon at NEV 42.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:04100% → 100%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
99.9%
T.Taua rushed to NEV 44 for 2 yards. Tackled by S.Tupou at NEV 44.Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
99.9%
C.Patton rushed to NEV 44 for 0 yards. Tackled by L.Bell; C.Mills at NEV 44.Similar
Q4 6:37
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+3
99.9%
N.Cox rushed to NEV 47 for 3 yards. Tackled by S.Tupou at NEV 47.Similar
Q4 5:52
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
99.9%
PENALTY on NEV-C.Patton, False Start, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q4 5:52
4TH & 10
OWN 42
+35
99.9%
M.Freem punts 35 yards to TXST 23, Center-N.Barcelos. Fair catch by A.Hawkins. PENALTY on TXST-J.Ware, Personal Foul / Offense, 12 yards, accepted.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 25TD
9 plays · 89 yds · 3:170% → 1%
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
99.9%
L.Hatcher pass complete to TXST 11. Catch made by D.Jackson at TXST 11. Gain of 9 yards. Tackled by T.Mack; K.Williams at TXST 20.Similar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 1
OWN 20
+4
99.9%
L.Hatcher pass complete to TXST 20. Catch made by D.Jackson at TXST 20. Gain of 4 yards. Tackled by K.Williams at TXST 24.Similar
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
99.9%
L.Hatcher pass complete to TXST 24. Catch made by D.Jackson at TXST 24. Gain of 1 yards. Tackled by M.Allen-Patmon at TXST 25.Similar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 9
OWN 25
0
99.9%
L.Hatcher steps back to pass. L.Hatcher pass incomplete intended for D.Robinson. PENALTY on NEV-D.Green-Warren, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+46
99.9%
L.Hatcher pass complete to TXST 40. Catch made by C.Brown at TXST 40. Gain of 46 yards. Tackled by K.Williams at NEV 14.Similar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
99.9%
L.Hatcher scrambles to NEV 10 for yards. Pushed out of bounds by C.Smalley at NEV 10. PENALTY on TXST-D.Cooper, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 20
OPP 24
+4
99.9%
L.Hatcher pass complete to NEV 24. Catch made by D.Moorer at NEV 24. Gain of 4 yards. Tackled by R.Toney at NEV 20.Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 16
OPP 20
+10
99.9%
L.Hatcher pass complete to NEV 20. Catch made by A.Hawkins at NEV 20. Gain of 10 yards. Tackled by M.Allen-Patmon at NEV 10.Similar
Q4 2:29
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+10
99.4%
L.Hatcher pass complete to NEV 10. Catch made by A.Hawkins at NEV 10. Gain of 10 yards. A.Hawkins for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · 38 yds · 2:0399% → 100%
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.4%
J.Fixel rushed to NEV 24 for -1 yards. Tackled by B.Holloway at NEV 24.Similar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
99.5%
W.Kommer rushed to NEV 26 for 2 yards. Tackled by D.Ratcliff; N.Mbanasor at NEV 26.Similar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+37
99.5%
J.Barlage rushed to TXST 37 for 37 yards. Tackled by D.Johnson at TXST 37.Similar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
99.6%
J.Fixel rushed to TXST 37 for 0 yards. Tackled by J.Emmanuel; N.Ezidore at TXST 37.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:43
N.Cox rushed to TXST End Zone for 8 yards. N.Cox for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
+12.2
TD · Q2 3:07
L.Hatcher pass complete to NEV 20. Catch made by A.Hawkins at NEV 20. Gain of 20 yards. A.Hawkins for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
-9.2
TD · Q1 1:38
D.Lee rushed to TXST End Zone for 5 yards. D.Lee for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
+6.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com