2022 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2022 · University Stadium (NM)
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Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadME aheadconfidence bandkey playUNM scoreME score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:52 · Brian Cooey punt for 43 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:53: Sherod White run for 4 yds for a TD, (George Steinkamp KICK) — UNM win probability +3.9 pts (now 70%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:24: Luke Wysong 13 Yd Run (George Steinkamp Kick) — UNM win probability +6.9 pts (now 78%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 4:18: NEW MEXICO Penalty, False Start (Shancco Matautia) to the Maine 10 — UNM win probability +11.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:53: Joe Fagnano pass complete to Tavion Banks for 3 yds to the Maine 46 — ME win probability +3.3 pts (now 9%) (top driver: ME has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:45: Sherod White 3 Yd Run (George Steinkamp Kick) — UNM win probability +2.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UNM made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ME made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
- Q1 7:57UNM 4th & 3 at ME 7, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call66.5%46% to convertField goal66.3%−0.191% to makePunt65.3%−1.2average punt
- Q1 5:48ME 4th & 3 at ME 24, tiedClose callPunted · 33.8% before the snapGo for it33.9%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 12:16ME 4th & 16 at ME 24, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snapGo for it27.9%−1.414% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.3%average punt
- Q2 12:16ME 4th & 16 at ME 24, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snapGo for it27.9%−1.414% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.3%average punt
- Q2 6:57ME 4th & 9 at ME 26, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snapGo for it20.5%−0.930% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.4%average punt
- Q2 1:37ME 4th & 1 at ME 34, down 21Close callPunted · 9.3% before the snapGo for it9.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.4%−0.6average punt
- Q2 0:41ME 4th & 7 at ME 46, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snapGo for it8.3%−0.237% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.6%average punt
- Q3 12:52ME 4th & 3 at UNM 43, down 21Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 7.7% before the snapGo for it8.1%52% to convertField goal6.4%−1.828% to makePuntTheir call7.0%−1.1average punt
- Q3 2:58ME 4th & 6 at UNM 45, down 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.4%40% to convertField goal0.3%−0.125% to makePunt0.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 1:07ME 4th & 24 at ME 48, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 14:11UNM 4th & 14 at UNM 11, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q4 12:53ME 4th & 7 at UNM 45, down 41Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%37% to convertField goal0.1%−0.125% to makePunt0.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 8:37ME 4th & 9 at ME 26, down 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 4:02UNM 4th & 4 at ME 43, up 41Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%48% to convertField goal99.8%−0.128% to makePuntTheir call99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 0:31ME 4th & 4 at ME 45, down 41Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q2 14:53UNM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.1%97% to makeGo for two69.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:24UNM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.7%97% to makeGo for two78.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:45UNM Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUNMDrive 1INT3 plays · 11 yds · 1:1566% → 66%
MEDrive 2INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3DOWNS10 plays · 30 yds · 5:3466% → 65%
MEDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0435% → 35%
Q1 5:48
4TH & 3
OWN 24
+13
65.1%
Brian Cooey punt for 49 yds , Luke Wysong returns for 13 yds to the NMex 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5TD11 plays · 60 yds · 5:4765% → 70%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
50
+7
65.6%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Austin Erickson for 7 yds to the Maine 43Similar
Q1 3:07
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+11
65.4%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Geordon Porter for 11 yds to the Maine 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
66.0%
Christian Washington run for 5 yds to the Maine 29 for a 1ST down MAINE Penalty, Illegal use of the hands on MITCHELL, Xavier enforced (Xavier Mitchell) to the Maine 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
66.1%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Tristan White for no gain to the Maine 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 6PUNT6 plays · -6 yds · 2:3731% → 30%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
68.6%
(14:53) FAGNANO, Joe pass to the right complete for 1 yard to BOWMAN, Shawn caught at the UME28 and advanced to the UME31 (WILSON, Ronald), clock 14:53. PENALTY UME Illegal Block in the Back on SCOTT, Xavier enforced 10 yards from the UME30 to the UME20 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 18
OWN 22
+1
69.2%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Xavier Scott for 1 yd to the Maine 23Similar
Q2 12:16
4TH & 16
OWN 24
+19
70.4%
Brian Cooey punt for 46 yds , Luke Wysong returns for 19 yds to the NMex 49Similar
Q2 12:16
4TH & 16
OWN 24
+19
70.4%
Brian Cooey punt for 46 yds , Luke Wysong returns for 19 yds to the NMex 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7TD10 plays · 51 yds · 3:5271% → 78%
MEDrive 8PUNT9 plays · 1 yds · 1:2724% → 23%
UNMDrive 9TD8 plays · 61 yds · 2:5278% → 92%
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
77.9%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Luke Wysong for 16 yds to the Maine 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
78.4%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Jaden Hullaby for 6 yds to the Maine 39Similar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+20
78.7%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Sherod White for 20 yds to the Maine 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
90.7%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, False Start (Shancco Matautia) to the Maine 10Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
90.7%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, False Start (Shancco Matautia) to the Maine 10Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
91.6%
Luke Wysong 10 Yd pass from Miles Kendrick (George Steinkamp Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 2:1911% → 9%
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
89.0%
(03:56) BARNWELL, Elijah rush to the left for a gain of 4 yards to the UME29 (MORENCO, Alec), clock 03:56. PENALTY UME Holding on ROYAL, Tyler enforced 10 yards from the UME25 to the UME15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 20
OWN 15
-5
89.4%
Joe Fagnano sacked by Bryce Santana and Reco Hannah for a loss of 5 yards to the Maine 10Similar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+21
90.9%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Shawn Bowman for 21 yds to the Maine 34Similar
Q2 1:37
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
90.7%
Brian Cooey punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Luke Wysong at the NMex 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11INT2 plays · 27 yds · 0:3094% → 94%
MEDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:129% → 9%
UNMDrive 13END OF HALF1 play · 2 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 14PUNT9 plays · 35 yds · 2:018% → 8%
Q3 14:42
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+7
92.1%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Shawn Bowman for 7 yds to the Maine 29Similar
Q3 14:04
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+9
92.1%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Xavier Scott for 9 yds to the Maine 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
92.0%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Montigo Moss for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15TD11 plays · 80 yds · 5:0094% → 99%
Q3 12:00
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
94.7%
Christian Washington run for no gain to the NMex 46 Christian Washington fumbled, recovered by NMex Miles KendrickSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 16FUMBLE3 plays · 33 yds · 0:391% → 1%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
99.3%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Freddie Brock for 2 yds to the Maine 27 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Justin Harris) to the Maine 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
99.3%
(07:09) FAGNANO, Joe pass to the left incomplete intended for WHITE, Kobay thrown to the UNM30, clock 07:09. PENALTY UNM Pass Interference on MARTIN, Donte enforced 15 yards to the UNM43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
99.3%
Joe Fagnano run for 1 yd to the NMex 49 Joe Fagnano fumbled, recovered by NMex Reco HannahSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17TD5 plays · 51 yds · 2:1599% → 100%
MEDrive 18PUNT9 plays · 10 yds · 3:230% → 0%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
99.6%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Tyrese Baptiste for 13 yds to the NMex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
4TH & 6
OPP 45
+7
99.7%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Montigo Moss for 7 yds to the NMex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 26
OWN 46
+2
99.8%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Kobay White for 2 yds to the Maine 48Similar
Q3 1:07
4TH & 24
OWN 48
0
99.8%
Brian Cooey punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Luke Wysong at the NMex 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 19PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 1:51100% → 100%
MEDrive 20DOWNS6 plays · -5 yds · 1:100% → 0%
UNMDrive 21TD7 plays · 47 yds · 3:22100% → 100%
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+15
99.9%
Jah'Mar Sanders run for 15 yds to the Maine 7 Jah'Mar Sanders fumbled, recovered by NMex Jah'Mar Sanders for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.9%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Geordon Porter for 7 yds for a TD, (George Steinkamp KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:500% → 0%
Q4 8:37
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Brian Cooey punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Luke Wysong at the NMex 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 23PUNT8 plays · 17 yds · 4:25100% → 100%
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
99.9%
(06:34) HULLABY, Jaden rush up the middle for a gain of 41 yards to the UME8 (BROWN, Kahzir), clock 06:34. PENALTY UNM Holding on SILLEMON, Isaiah enforced 10 yards from the UME49 to the UNM41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:51
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+2
99.9%
Zach Vigil run for 2 yds to the Maine 43 Zach Vigil fumbled, recovered by NMex Zach VigilSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 24DOWNS8 plays · 25 yds · 3:270% → 0%
Q4 3:30
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+16
100.0%
John Gay run for 1 yd to the Maine 24 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO Penalty, Targeting on MORENCO, Alec enforced (Alec Marenco) to the Maine 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
100.0%
(02:48) BANKS, Tavion rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the UME42 (LEWIS, Jer'Marius;GAINER, Destin), clock 02:48. PENALTY UME Holding on GROSS, David enforced 10 yards from the UME39 to the UME29 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q2 4:18
NEW MEXICO Penalty, False Start (Shancco Matautia) to the Maine 10
+11.8
TD · Q2 8:24
Luke Wysong 13 Yd Run (George Steinkamp Kick)
+6.9
TD · Q2 14:53
Sherod White run for 4 yds for a TD, (George Steinkamp KICK)
+3.9