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UNI

Northern Iowa 17 at Air Force 48

AF
2022 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2022 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadUNI aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreUNI score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:24 · Cael Loecher punt for 50 yds, downed at the AFA 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 30Pregame prior+29.2Home team on offense+3.0Score differential+1.2Blowout margin+0.3Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 4:46: Matthew Cook 28 Yd Field Goal — UNI win probability +1.6 pts (now 17%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q1 3:59: Dane Kinamon 71 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick) — AF win probability +2.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 5:47: Matthew Dapore 33 Yd Field Goal — AF win probability +2.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:20: Haaziq Daniels 12 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick) — AF win probability +3.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 14:10: Brad Roberts 71 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick) — AF win probability +3.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 0 of 2UNI made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 12:18UNI 4th & 9 at AF 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    17.3%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:46UNI 4th & 7 at AF 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    16.5%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:24UNI 4th & 3 at UNI 48, down 11
    Close callPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:31AF 4th & 2 at UNI 13, up 12
    Close callKicked a field goal · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.0%−0.5
    85% to make
    Punt
    82.8%−3.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:47AF 4th & 2 at UNI 16, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.2%−0.6
    81% to make
    Punt
    82.6%−4.2
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:00UNI 4th & 6 at UNI 45, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  7. Q4 12:04UNI 4th & 10 at AF 42, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  8. Q4 1:55UNI 4th & 10 at AF 35, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.0%
    45% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UNI made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 9:28AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:59AF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:20AF Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 14:10AF Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:02AF Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:13AF Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:45UNI Touchdown, down 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:54UNI Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNIDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:4214% → 15%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
85.9%
Theo Day pass complete to Deion McShane for 13 yds to the NIowa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+20
85.9%
Theo Day pass complete to Quan Hampton for 20 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
85.9%
AIR FORCE Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the AFA 47Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 47
+4
85.9%
Dom Williams run for 4 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 43
0
85.9%
Theo Day pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 43
+2
85.9%
Theo Day run for 2 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q1 12:18
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
85.2%
Cael Loecher punt for 34 yds, downed at the AFA 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2TD
6 plays · 93 yds · 2:5085% → 85%
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
85.2%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 9Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+13
85.1%
Haaziq Daniels run for 13 yds to the AFA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
85.2%
Haaziq Daniels run for 7 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 3
OWN 29
-5
85.2%
AIR FORCE Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the AFA 24Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 8
OWN 24
-4
85.2%
Haaziq Daniels run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 20Similar
Q1 9:28
3RD & 12
OWN 20
+80
85.3%
Dane Kinamon 80 Yd pass from Haaziq Daniels (Matthew Dapore Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 3FG
10 plays · 64 yds · 4:4215% → 17%
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
85.4%
Dom Williams run for 13 yds to the NIowa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
85.3%
Dom Williams run for 5 yds to the NIowa 43Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+18
85.2%
Theo Day pass complete to Quan Hampton for 18 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
85.1%
Dom Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 41Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+12
85.2%
Theo Day pass complete to Logan Wolf for 12 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
84.9%
Theo Day pass complete to Deion McShane for 15 yds to the AFA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
84.9%
Dom Williams run for 1 yd to the AFA 13Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+2
84.9%
Dom Williams run for 2 yds to the AFA 11Similar
Q1 9:28
3RD & 7
OPP 11
0
85.1%
Theo Day pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:46
4TH & 7
OPP 11
+28
83.5%
Matthew Cook 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:4784% → 86%
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
83.6%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+71
85.7%
Dane Kinamon 71 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 2:3515% → 15%
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
85.1%
Vance McShane run for 16 yds to the NIowa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
84.8%
Vance McShane run for 2 yds to the NIowa 43Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+6
84.8%
Theo Day pass complete to Sergio Morancy for 6 yds to the NIowa 49Similar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 2
OWN 49
-1
84.6%
Vance McShane run for a loss of 1 yard to the NIowa 48Similar
Q1 1:24
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
85.2%
Cael Loecher punt for 50 yds, downed at the AFA 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6FG
15 plays · 85 yds · 6:5385% → 88%
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
85.3%
AIR FORCE Penalty, False Start ( Yards) to the AFA 1Similar
Q1 1:24
1ST & 11
OWN 1
+10
85.3%
Brad Roberts run for 10 yds to the AFA 11Similar
Q1 1:24
2ND & 1
OWN 11
+2
85.3%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
85.4%
DeAndre Hughes run for no gain to the AFA 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+9
87.4%
Haaziq Daniels run for 9 yds to the AFA 22Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+3
87.2%
Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
87.6%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+40
87.6%
Haaziq Daniels run for 40 yds to the NIowa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
88.1%
Dane Kinamon run for 6 yds to the NIowa 25Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+4
88.1%
Omar Fattah run for 4 yds to the NIowa 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
88.1%
Omar Fattah run for 2 yds to the NIowa 19Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 8
OPP 19
-5
88.1%
AIR FORCE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NIowa 24Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 13
OPP 24
+3
88.0%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the NIowa 21Similar
Q2 13:57
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+8
87.8%
Haaziq Daniels run for 8 yds to the NIowa 13Similar
Q2 9:31
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+30
88.3%
Matthew Dapore 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 7INT
4 plays · 15 yds · 1:0413% → 13%
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
87.4%
Theo Day pass complete to Sam Schnee for 5 yds to the NIowa 28Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+10
87.3%
Theo Day pass complete to Deion McShane for 10 yds to the NIowa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
87.2%
Theo Day pass interceptedSimilar
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
87.2%
Theo Day pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8FG
5 plays · 28 yds · 2:3589% → 91%
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+20
89.1%
Brad Roberts run for 20 yds to the NIowa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
89.1%
DeAndre Hughes run for 6 yds to the NIowa 18Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+2
89.1%
Omar Fattah run for 2 yds to the NIowa 16Similar
Q2 8:22
3RD & 2
OPP 16
0
88.8%
Haaziq Daniels run for no gain to the NIowa 16Similar
Q2 5:47
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+33
91.2%
Matthew Dapore 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 9FUMBLE
6 plays · 61 yds · 2:1610% → 11%
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
90.0%
Vance McShane run for 3 yds to the NIowa 38Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+15
89.8%
Theo Day pass complete to Deion McShane for 15 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
89.4%
Vance McShane run for 1 yd to the AFA 46Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+27
89.4%
Theo Day pass complete to Alex Allen for 27 yds to the AFA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+15
89.0%
Theo Day run for 15 yds to the AFA 4 Theo Day fumbled, recovered by AFA Michael Mack IISimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+15
89.0%
Theo Day run for 15 yds to the AFA 4 Theo Day fumbled, recovered by AFA Michael Mack IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10TD
16 plays · 96 yds · 3:1192% → 96%
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
91.8%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 6Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+12
91.8%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 12 yds to the AFA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
91.9%
John Lee Eldridge III run for no gain to the AFA 18Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+22
91.9%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to DeAndre Hughes for 22 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
92.2%
Haaziq Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+13
92.1%
Haaziq Daniels run for 13 yds to the NIowa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
92.2%
Haaziq Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+7
92.2%
DeAndre Hughes run for 7 yds to the NIowa 40Similar
Q2 3:31
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+6
92.0%
Haaziq Daniels run for 6 yds to the NIowa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
92.2%
Haaziq Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+27
92.2%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 27 yds to the NIowa 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
92.2%
AIR FORCE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NIowa 12Similar
Q2 0:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
0
92.3%
Haaziq Daniels run for no gain to the NIowa 12Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
96.2%
Haaziq Daniels 12 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
94.9%
Dom Williams run for 1 yd to the NIowa 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:5096% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.8%
DeAndre Hughes run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+71
98.9%
Brad Roberts 71 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 3:031% → 1%
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
99.1%
Theo Day pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+13
99.1%
Theo Day pass complete to Deion McShane for 13 yds to the NIowa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
99.1%
Dom Williams run for 5 yds to the NIowa 32Similar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+9
99.1%
Theo Day pass complete to Sergio Morancy for 9 yds to the NIowa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
99.1%
Dom Williams run for 4 yds to the NIowa 45Similar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
99.0%
Dom Williams run for no gain to the NIowa 45Similar
Q3 14:03
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
99.1%
Theo Day pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:00
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
99.3%
Cael Loecher punt for 51 yds, downed at the AFA 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14TD
19 plays · 96 yds · 10:5899% → 100%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
99.2%
Omar Fattah run for 2 yds to the AFA 6Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+5
99.2%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 5 yds to the AFA 11Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 3
OWN 11
+8
99.2%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 8 yds to the AFA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
99.2%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 10 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
99.3%
AIR FORCE Penalty, False Start (Omar Fattah) to the AFA 24Similar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 15
OWN 24
+7
99.2%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to James Bryant for 7 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+9
99.3%
Omar Fattah run for 9 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
99.3%
Emmanuel Michel run for 9 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+5
99.2%
Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the NIowa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
99.3%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 1 yd to the NIowa 45Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 9
OPP 45
-1
99.7%
DeAndre Hughes run for a loss of 1 yard to the NIowa 46Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+15
99.7%
Jensen Jones run for 15 yds to the NIowa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
99.7%
Jensen Jones run for no gain to the NIowa 31Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+2
99.7%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the NIowa 29Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+22
99.7%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 22 yds to the NIowa 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
99.7%
Jensen Jones run for 2 yds to the NIowa 5Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
99.7%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the NIowa 1Similar
Q3 0:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Jensen Jones 1 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 2:560% → 0%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Vance McShane run for 1 yd to the NIowa 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+12
99.9%
Theo Day pass complete to Sam Schnee for 12 yds to the NIowa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
99.9%
Vance McShane run for 2 yds to the NIowa 40Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+6
99.9%
Vance McShane run for 6 yds to the NIowa 46Similar
Q4 12:58
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+12
99.9%
Dom Williams run for 12 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.9%
Theo Day pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
99.9%
Theo Day pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:58
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
99.9%
Theo Day pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:04
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
99.9%
Cael Loecher punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:51100% → 100%
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Owen Burk run for no gain to the AFA 20Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+80
99.9%
Jalen Johnson 80 Yd Run (Anthony Rodriguez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 17TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:280% → 0%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+40
100.0%
Theo Day pass complete to Dom Williams for 40 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
99.9%
Amauri Pesek-Hickson run for 6 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+5
99.9%
Theo Day pass complete to Sam Schnee for 5 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+14
99.9%
Amauri Pesek-Hickson run for 14 yds to the AFA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
100.0%
Logan Wolf 10 Yd pass from Theo Day (Matthew Cook Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18FUMBLE
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:44100% → 100%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.9%
Jet Harris run for 9 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
99.9%
Jet Harris run for 6 yds to the AFA 40 Jet Harris fumbled, recovered by NIowa Mo OlowoSimilar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
99.9%
Jet Harris run for 6 yds to the AFA 40 Jet Harris fumbled, recovered by NIowa Mo OlowoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 19TD
3 plays · 40 yds · 1:070% → 0%
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+19
100.0%
Theo Day pass complete to Desmond Hutson for 19 yds to the AFA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
100.0%
Amauri Pesek-Hickson run for 7 yds to the AFA 14Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+14
99.9%
Sergio Morancy 14 Yd pass from Theo Day (Matthew Cook Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20FUMBLE
6 plays · 33 yds · 3:28100% → 100%
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.9%
Aiden Calvert run for 15 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
99.9%
Sione Angilau run for 2 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+9
99.9%
Cannon Turner run for 9 yds to the NIowa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
99.9%
Johnathan Youngblood run for 5 yds to the NIowa 44Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+4
99.9%
Kale Gibbs run for 4 yds to the NIowa 40Similar
Q4 3:26
3RD & 1
OPP 40
-2
99.9%
Owen Burk run for a loss of 2 yards to the NIowa 42 Owen Burk fumbled, recovered by NIowa Caleb FrazerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 21MISSED FG
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:310% → 0%
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
100.0%
Theo Day pass complete to Sergio Morancy for 2 yds to the NIowa 44Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
100.0%
Theo Day pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:26
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+21
100.0%
Theo Day pass complete to Harrison Bey-Buie for 21 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
100.0%
Theo Day pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
100.0%
Theo Day pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:26
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
100.0%
Theo Day pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 10
OPP 35
+52
100.0%
Matthew Cook 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:20
Haaziq Daniels 12 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)
+3.9
TD · Q3 14:10
Brad Roberts 71 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)
+3.1
FG · Q2 5:47
Matthew Dapore 33 Yd Field Goal
+2.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com