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JMU

James Madison 32 at App State 28

APP
2022 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2022 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
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Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadJMU aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreJMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:49 · Chase Brice pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 159Home team on offense−22.2Pregame prior+0.3Garbage-time factor−11.1Score differential+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−6.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:37: Chase Brice pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 27 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK) — APP win probability +6.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:16: Todd Centeio pass complete to Kaelon Black for 23 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK) — APP win probability +11.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:19: Todd Centeio run for 2 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK) — JMU win probability +10.4 pts (now 19%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:28: Todd Centeio pass complete to Terrance Greene Jr. for 36 yds for a TD, (Todd Centeio pass to Kris Thornton for Two-Point Conversion) — JMU win probability +19.3 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 10:36: Kaelon Black run for 4 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK) — JMU win probability +32.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 7 of 7JMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 11:21JMU 4th & 7 at APP 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    32.4%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    32.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:10JMU 4th & 4 at APP 10, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.1%−<0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    32.1%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:10APP 4th & 19 at JMU 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−0.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    64.8%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:39JMU 4th & 17 at JMU 13, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−1.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:44JMU 4th & 4 at APP 32, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    25.3%−0.5
    51% to make
    Punt
    24.8%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:12JMU 4th & 1 at APP 48, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.5%−1.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:30JMU 4th & 10 at APP 10, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−1.3
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    9.3%−5.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:22APP 4th & 2 at JMU 27, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    90.2%−1.0
    62% to make
    Punt
    85.6%−5.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:00JMU 4th & 4 at JMU 34, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:10APP 4th & 6 at APP 30, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:14JMU 4th & 3 at JMU 34, down 18
    Close callPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:12APP 4th & 12 at APP 19, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%−0.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:12JMU 4th & 5 at APP 16, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.4%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    6.8%
    81% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−5.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:26APP 4th & 8 at APP 49, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:13APP 4th & 13 at APP 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−4.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:06JMU 4th & 1 at APP 9, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    78.0%−6.2
    89% to make
    Punt
    63.6%−20.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:49APP 4th & 9 at APP 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.6%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.2%−3.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 4 of 4JMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q2 13:45APP Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:45APP Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:37APP Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:10APP Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:16JMU Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:19JMU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:28JMU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    26.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    25.4%−0.6
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:36JMU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
JMUDrive 1FG
16 plays · 65 yds · 6:5029% → 31%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
71.2%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Zach Horton for 11 yds to the JMads 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
71.2%
Latrele Palmer run for 9 yds to the JMads 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+15
71.2%
Todd Centeio run for 15 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
71.2%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Drew Painter for 6 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+2
71.2%
Latrele Palmer run for 2 yds to the AppSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 32
-5
71.2%
JMU Penalty, False Start (Latrele Palmer) to the AppSt 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+5
71.2%
Todd Centeio run for 5 yds to the AppSt 32Similar
Q1 11:21
4TH & 2
OPP 32
-5
70.4%
JMU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 37Similar
Q1 11:21
4TH & 7
OPP 37
+9
70.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Drew Painter for 9 yds to the AppSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
70.2%
Kaelon Black run for 4 yds to the AppSt 24Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+8
70.2%
Kaelon Black run for 8 yds to the AppSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
70.2%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Zach Horton for 1 yd to the AppSt 15Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+5
70.2%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Latrele Palmer for 5 yds to the AppSt 10Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 4
OPP 10
0
70.3%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:10
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+27
69.4%
Camden Wise 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:4969% → 68%
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
69.4%
Daetrich Harrington run for 1 yd to the AppSt 26Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
69.4%
Daetrich Harrington run for 9 yds to the AppSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+34
69.5%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 34 yds to the JMads 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
70.5%
Anderson Castle run for no gain to the JMads 31Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-1
70.5%
Nate Noel run for a loss of 1 yard to the JMads 32Similar
Q1 7:59
3RD & 11
OPP 32
-5
70.0%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the JMads 37Similar
Q1 7:59
3RD & 16
OPP 37
-3
69.6%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dashaun Davis for a loss of 3 yards to the JMads 40Similar
Q1 4:10
4TH & 19
OPP 40
0
67.9%
Clayton Howell punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:3132% → 31%
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
68.4%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for a loss of 1 yard to the JMads 19Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
68.5%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 11
OWN 19
-6
68.8%
Todd Centeio sacked by Nick Hampton for a loss of 6 yards to the JMads 13Similar
Q1 2:39
4TH & 17
OWN 13
0
68.8%
Sam Clark punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 3:5469% → 72%
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+26
68.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 26 yds to the JMads 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
69.6%
Nate Noel run for 5 yds to the JMads 27Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+3
69.6%
Chase Brice pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 3 yds to the JMads 24Similar
Q1 2:39
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+3
69.0%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the JMads 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
69.6%
Camerun Peoples run for no gain to the JMads 21Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+5
69.1%
Camerun Peoples run for 5 yds to the JMads 16Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+12
68.4%
Chase Brice pass complete to Henry Pearson for 12 yds to the JMads 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
69.1%
Camerun Peoples run for 2 yds to the JMads 2Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
72.3%
Camerun Peoples run for 2 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 5FUMBLE
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.0%
Latrele Palmer run for no gain to the JMads 22 Latrele Palmer fumbled, recovered by AppSt Trey CobbSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6TD
4 plays · 22 yds · 1:5372% → 78%
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
72.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Michael Hetzel for 9 yds to the JMads 13Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+5
72.3%
Daetrich Harrington run for 5 yds to the JMads 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
72.3%
Daetrich Harrington run for a loss of 2 yards to the JMads 10Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
78.4%
Chase Brice pass complete to Miller Gibbs for 10 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 7DOWNS
8 plays · 43 yds · 2:0124% → 23%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
76.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Reggie Brown for 8 yds to the JMads 33Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+19
75.7%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Reggie Brown for 19 yds to the AppSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
75.2%
Kaelon Black run for 10 yds to the AppSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
75.2%
Latrele Palmer run for 1 yd to the AppSt 37Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
75.2%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+5
75.4%
CENTEIO, Todd pass to the right incomplete intended for BROWN, Reggie thrown to the APP16. PENALTY APP Offsides on MCLEOD, Jalen enforced 5 yards from the APP37 to the APP32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 4
OPP 32
0
75.0%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:44
4TH & 4
OPP 32
0
76.9%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 1:0778% → 86%
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
78.4%
Ahmani Marshall run for 2 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+24
78.3%
Ahmani Marshall run for 24 yds to the JMads 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
79.3%
BRICE, Chase pass to the left incomplete intended for STROMAN, Dalton thrown to the JMU10. PENALTY JMU Pass Interference on JAMES, Maxwell enforced 15 yards to the JMU27 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
85.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 27 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 9FUMBLE
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:3516% → 16%
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
84.1%
Todd Centeio run for 8 yds to the JMads 31 JMU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tanner Morris) to the JMads 17Similar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 16
OWN 17
+4
84.2%
Kaelon Black run for 4 yds to the JMads 21Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+5
84.3%
CENTEIO, Todd pass to the right complete for 7 yards to BROWN, Reggie to the JMU28 (LAWSON JR., Dexter), out of bounds. PENALTY APP Offsides on PAILLANT, Hansky enforced 5 yards from the JMU21 to the JMU26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
83.9%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 7
OWN 26
-6
84.2%
Todd Centeio sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the JMads 16 fumbled, recovered by AppSt Tyler Bird , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10TD
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:4686% → 91%
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
85.8%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+11
85.8%
Chase Brice pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 11 yds to the JMads 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
90.5%
Nate Noel run for 5 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 11TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:5413% → 15%
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
86.6%
Kaelon Black run for 18 yds to the JMads 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
84.3%
Kaelon Black run for 1 yd to the JMads 44Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+4
74.8%
Todd Centeio run for 4 yds to the JMads 48Similar
Q2 4:12
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+4
73.1%
Kaelon Black run for 4 yds to the AppSt 48Similar
Q2 4:12
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+9
72.9%
Kaelon Black run for 9 yds to the AppSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+16
72.6%
Todd Centeio run for 16 yds to the AppSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
72.9%
Todd Centeio run for no gain to the AppSt 23Similar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+23
84.7%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kaelon Black for 23 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12FUMBLE
3 plays · -5 yds · 1:0288% → 88%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.7%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
87.7%
Nate Noel run for no gain to the AppSt 25Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
87.8%
Chase Brice sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the AppSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 13MISSED FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4415% → 13%
Q2 1:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
84.8%
Kaelon Black run for no gain to the AppSt 10Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
84.8%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
85.8%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
86.7%
Camden Wise 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
88.6%
Daetrich Harrington run for 2 yds to the AppSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15DOWNS
8 plays · 47 yds · 3:3887% → 92%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
87.4%
Daetrich Harrington run for 1 yd to the AppSt 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+19
87.4%
Chase Brice pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 19 yds to the AppSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
87.9%
Daetrich Harrington run for 2 yds to the AppSt 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+18
87.8%
Chase Brice pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 18 yds to the JMads 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
87.9%
Ahmani Marshall run for 5 yds to the JMads 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 30
0
87.6%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+3
87.2%
Ahmani Marshall run for 3 yds to the JMads 27Similar
Q3 11:22
4TH & 2
OPP 27
-1
91.8%
Ahmani Marshall run for a loss of 1 yard to the JMads 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2211% → 9%
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
88.9%
Todd Centeio run for 5 yds to the JMads 33Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+1
88.6%
Kaelon Black run for 1 yd to the JMads 34Similar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
88.8%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:00
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
91.0%
Sam Clark punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:5092% → 92%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
91.9%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the AppSt 27Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 9
OWN 27
-7
91.6%
Chase Brice sacked by Jamare Edwards for a loss of 7 yards to the AppSt 20Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 16
OWN 20
+10
90.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Tyler Page for 10 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q3 8:10
4TH & 6
OWN 30
+4
91.6%
Clayton Howell punt for 47 yds , Josh Sarratt returns for 4 yds to the JMads 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5610% → 9%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
90.5%
Kaelon Black run for 6 yds to the JMads 33Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+3
89.9%
Todd Centeio run for 3 yds to the JMads 36Similar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 1
OWN 36
-2
90.0%
Kaelon Black run for a loss of 2 yards to the JMads 34Similar
Q3 6:14
4TH & 3
OWN 34
0
90.9%
Sam Clark punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tyler Page at the AppSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 2:0293% → 92%
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
92.8%
Anderson Castle run for 6 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 4
OWN 27
-1
92.9%
Anderson Castle run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 26Similar
Q3 6:14
3RD & 5
OWN 26
-7
92.7%
Chase Brice sacked by Jamare Edwards and Abi Nwabuoku-Okonji for a loss of 7 yards to the AppSt 19Similar
Q3 4:12
4TH & 12
OWN 19
0
91.6%
Clayton Howell punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Josh Sarratt at the AppSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 20TD
7 plays · 41 yds · 2:538% → 19%
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+20
91.7%
Latrele Palmer run for 20 yds to the AppSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
90.5%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-5
90.8%
JMU Penalty, False Start (Latrele Palmer) to the AppSt 26Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 15
OPP 26
-1
91.0%
Todd Centeio run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 27Similar
Q3 4:12
3RD & 16
OPP 27
+11
91.7%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Devin Ravenel for 11 yds to the AppSt 16Similar
Q3 4:12
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+14
91.5%
Todd Centeio run for 14 yds to the AppSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
81.1%
Todd Centeio run for 2 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 2:5386% → 87%
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.8%
Chase Brice run for 2 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
85.7%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:19
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+20
84.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Christan Horn for 20 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
88.3%
Ahmani Marshall run for 4 yds to the JMads 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+3
88.3%
Ahmani Marshall run for 3 yds to the JMads 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 46
0
87.7%
Ahmani Marshall run for no gain to the JMads 46Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 46
-5
87.0%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the AppSt 49Similar
Q4 13:26
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
87.2%
Clayton Howell punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Josh Sarratt at the JMads 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 22TD
5 plays · 92 yds · 1:5813% → 37%
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
86.6%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+42
86.9%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Reggie Brown for 42 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
50
+6
82.8%
Todd Centeio run for 6 yds to the AppSt 44Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+8
82.1%
Kaelon Black run for 8 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
62.8%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Terrance Greene Jr. for 36 yds for a TD, (Todd Centeio pass to Kris Thornton for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 23INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
73.1%
Chase Brice pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 24TD
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:3540% → 72%
Q4 11:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
60.2%
Kaelon Black run for 5 yds to the AppSt 4Similar
Q4 10:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
27.7%
Kaelon Black run for 4 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2341% → 35%
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
40.5%
Chase Brice pass complete to Daetrich Harrington for 3 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-6
40.9%
Chase Brice sacked by Josh Sarratt for a loss of 6 yards to the AppSt 22Similar
Q4 10:36
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
37.9%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:13
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
35.0%
Clayton Howell punt for 51 yds, downed at the JMads 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 26DOWNS
16 plays · 63 yds · 7:0767% → 85%
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
33.0%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Reggie Brown for 12 yds to the JMads 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
30.5%
Todd Centeio run for a loss of 1 yard to the JMads 38Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+7
31.8%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Devin Ravenel for 7 yds to the JMads 45Similar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+5
30.6%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Drew Painter for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
50
+3
29.3%
Latrele Palmer run for 3 yds to the AppSt 47Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+10
29.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Terrance Greene Jr. for 10 yds to the AppSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
29.0%
Kaelon Black run for 1 yd to the AppSt 36Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 9
OPP 36
-5
29.2%
JMU Penalty, False Start (Drew Painter) to the AppSt 41Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 14
OPP 41
+5
30.6%
Kaelon Black run for 5 yds to the AppSt 36Similar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+18
29.7%
Todd Centeio run for 18 yds to the AppSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
26.9%
Latrele Palmer run for 4 yds to the AppSt 14Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 6
OPP 14
0
26.9%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 6
OPP 14
-5
28.6%
JMU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 19Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 11
OPP 19
+10
13.1%
Todd Centeio run for 10 yds to the AppSt 9Similar
Q4 2:06
4TH & 1
OPP 9
-1
14.8%
Kaelon Black run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 27DOWNS
11 plays · 32 yds · 1:1726% → 17%
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
26.3%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 10
OWN 10
-5
25.6%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Illegal Snap on EVERETT, Troy enforced (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 5Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 15
OWN 5
+23
24.4%
Chase Brice pass complete to Christan Horn for 23 yds to the AppSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
27.1%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+6
26.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 6 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q4 2:06
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+7
26.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Henry Pearson for 7 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
30.2%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
28.4%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:54
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+1
19.9%
Chase Brice run for 1 yd to the AppSt 42Similar
Q4 0:49
4TH & 9
OWN 42
0
16.7%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:36
Kaelon Black run for 4 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK)
-32.5
TD · Q4 11:28
Todd Centeio pass complete to Terrance Greene Jr. for 36 yds for a TD, (Todd Centeio pass to Kris Thornton for Two-Point Conversion)
-19.3
TD · Q2 2:16
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kaelon Black for 23 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK)
+11.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com