Try the model
NWST

Northwestern State 10 at Southern Miss 64

USM
2022 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2022 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadNWST aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreNWST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:32 · Scotty Roblow punt for 46 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 90Pregame prior+35.9Home team on offense+24.6Score differential+20.2Blowout margin+9.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.4Garbage-time factor+5.5
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 10:44: Briggs Bourgeois 34 Yd Field Goal — NWST win probability +0.4 pts (now 3%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. FG · Q1 5:53: Briggs Bourgeois 26 Yd Field Goal — NWST win probability +0.2 pts (now 3%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 4:06: Ty Keyes pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 40 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK) — USM win probability +0.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 14:52: Swayze Bozeman 12 Yd Fumble Return (Briggs Bourgeois Kick) — USM win probability +1.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NWST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 9:20: Frank Gore Jr. run for 28 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK) — USM win probability +0.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 11 of 12NWST made the numbers' call on 16 of 19
  1. Q1 13:26NWST 4th & 10 at NWST 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:44USM 4th & 17 at NWST 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.5%
    80% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:44NWST 4th & 2 at NWST 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:41NWST 4th & 2 at NWST 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:53USM 4th & 3 at NWST 9, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.7%−<0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    95.2%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:03NWST 4th & 7 at NWST 28, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  7. Q1 4:00NWST 4th & 6 at NWST 42, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  8. Q1 1:56NWST 4th & 6 at NWST 42, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  9. Q1 1:56USM 4th & 6 at USM 47, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  10. Q1 0:58USM 4th & 6 at USM 47, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 14:52NWST 4th & 3 at NWST 32, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  12. Q2 13:05NWST 4th & 3 at NWST 32, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  13. Q2 11:44USM 4th & 6 at USM 41, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%
    average punt
  14. Q2 9:48NWST 4th & 5 at NWST 8, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  15. Q2 9:11USM 4th & 10 at USM 47, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%
    average punt
  16. Q2 7:24USM 4th & 10 at USM 47, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  17. Q2 7:24NWST 4th & 8 at NWST 26, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  18. Q2 4:47NWST 4th & 8 at NWST 26, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  19. Q2 3:32NWST 4th & 3 at NWST 43, down 34
    Close callPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  20. Q2 1:37NWST 4th & 3 at NWST 43, down 34
    Close callPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  21. Q2 0:44NWST 4th & 4 at USM 42, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%−<0.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.1
    average punt
  22. Q2 0:26NWST 4th & 4 at USM 42, down 41
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%
    30% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.1
    average punt
  23. Q3 14:52USM 4th & 10 at NWST 45, up 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  24. Q3 12:36USM 4th & 10 at NWST 45, up 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  25. Q3 11:07USM 4th & 1 at NWST 24, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.5
    average punt
  26. Q3 3:51NWST 4th & 10 at USM 26, down 50
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.4
    average punt
  27. Q4 10:48USM 4th & 2 at NWST 2, up 47
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.6
    average punt
  28. Q4 8:21NWST 4th & 25 at NWST 19, down 47
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.1%−0.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
  29. Q4 6:00USM 4th & 4 at NWST 35, up 47
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    100.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  30. Q4 3:55NWST 4th & 9 at NWST 37, down 54
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
  31. Q4 3:01NWST 4th & 9 at NWST 37, down 54
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 7 of 7NWST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 4:06USM Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:52USM Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:20USM Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:32USM Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:24USM Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:36USM Touchdown, up 53 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:03NWST Touchdown, down 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:03USM Touchdown, up 53 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NWSTDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:342% → 2%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
97.8%
Kennieth Lacy run for a loss of 1 yard to the NWSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
97.8%
Miles Fallin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+1
97.8%
Miles Fallin run for 1 yd to the NWSt 25Similar
Q1 13:26
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+18
97.6%
Scotty Roblow punt for 49 yds , Natrone Brooks returns for 18 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2FG
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:4298% → 97%
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
97.6%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 12 yds to the NWSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
97.6%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 15 yds to the NWSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
97.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the NWSt 24Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+17
97.6%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 17 yds to the NWSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
97.6%
Zach Wilcke run for 1 yd to the NWSt 6Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
97.6%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 17
+34
97.2%
Briggs Bourgeois 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:033% → 3%
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.3%
Kennieth Lacy run for 2 yds to the NWSt 27Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
97.2%
Kennieth Lacy run for 3 yds to the NWSt 30Similar
Q1 10:44
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
97.3%
Miles Fallin run for 3 yds to the NWSt 33Similar
Q1 10:44
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+14
97.3%
Scotty Roblow punt for 52 yds , Natrone Brooks returns for 14 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q1 8:41
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+14
97.0%
Scotty Roblow punt for 52 yds , Natrone Brooks returns for 14 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4FG
9 plays · 62 yds · 2:4897% → 97%
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
96.9%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 8 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+11
97.0%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 11 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+19
97.0%
Zach Wilcke run for 19 yds to the NWSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+17
97.0%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Luke Baker for 17 yds to the NWSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
97.0%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NWSt 21Similar
Q1 8:41
1ST & 15
OPP 21
+12
97.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 12 yds to the NWSt 9Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 3
OPP 9
0
97.0%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 3
OPP 9
0
97.0%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:53
4TH & 3
OPP 9
+26
96.8%
Briggs Bourgeois 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:503% → 3%
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.7%
Miles Fallin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.7%
London Williams run for 3 yds to the NWSt 28Similar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
96.7%
Miles Fallin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:03
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+27
96.6%
Scotty Roblow punt for 37 yds , Natrone Brooks returns for 27 yds to the NWSt 38Similar
Q1 5:03
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
96.6%
Miles Fallin pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6TD
3 plays · 38 yds · 0:5797% → 97%
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
96.7%
Janari Dean run for a loss of 2 yards to the NWSt 40Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 12
OPP 40
0
96.7%
Ty Keyes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:06
3RD & 12
OPP 40
+40
97.3%
Ty Keyes pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 40 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:043% → 3%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
96.9%
Miles Fallin pass complete to Kennieth Lacy for a loss of 4 yards to the NWSt 34Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+8
97.0%
Miles Fallin pass complete to Zach Patterson for 8 yds to the NWSt 42Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
96.9%
Kennieth Lacy run for no gain to the NWSt 42Similar
Q1 4:00
4TH & 6
OWN 42
+31
97.0%
Scotty Roblow punt for 46 yds , Natrone Brooks returns for 31 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q1 1:56
4TH & 6
OWN 42
+31
96.8%
Scotty Roblow punt for 46 yds , Natrone Brooks returns for 31 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5897% → 97%
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
97.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 6
OWN 47
0
97.2%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:56
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
97.2%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:56
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
97.1%
Mason Hunt punt for 35 yds, fair catch by PJ Herrington at the NWSt 18Similar
Q1 0:58
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
97.0%
Mason Hunt punt for 35 yds, fair catch by PJ Herrington at the NWSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 9FUMBLE RETURN TD
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:063% → 2%
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
96.7%
NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 13
OWN 15
-2
96.8%
Miles Fallin run for a loss of 2 yards to the NWSt 13Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 15
-2
96.7%
Miles Fallin run for a loss of 2 yards to the NWSt 13Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 15
OWN 13
+12
98.0%
Swayze Bozeman 12 Yd Fumble Return (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:472% → 2%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.0%
London Williams run for 1 yd to the NWSt 26Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
98.0%
London Williams run for 5 yds to the NWSt 31Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+1
98.0%
London Williams run for 1 yd to the NWSt 32Similar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+10
98.0%
Scotty Roblow punt for 41 yds , Natrone Brooks returns for 10 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q2 13:05
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+10
98.0%
Scotty Roblow punt for 41 yds , Natrone Brooks returns for 10 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2198% → 98%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
97.9%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
97.9%
Ty Keyes run for 2 yds to the SoMis 39Similar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+2
97.9%
Ty Keyes run for 2 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q2 11:44
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
98.0%
Mason Hunt punt for 53 yds, downed at the NWSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:562% → 2%
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
98.1%
Kennieth Lacy run for a loss of 1 yard to the NWSt 2Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 11
OWN 2
+1
98.1%
Kennieth Lacy run for 1 yd to the NWSt 3Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 10
OWN 3
+5
98.1%
Kennieth Lacy run for 5 yds to the NWSt 8Similar
Q2 9:48
4TH & 5
OWN 8
+12
98.2%
Scotty Roblow punt for 45 yds , Natrone Brooks returns for 12 yds to the NWSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13TD
2 plays · 41 yds · 0:2898% → 99%
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
98.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 13 yds to the NWSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
99.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 28 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 14INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.1%
Zachary Clement pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 1:4799% → 99%
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
99.0%
QB Keeper WILCKE, Zach rush to the left for a gain of 5 yards to the NSU48 (REDDOCK, Jabari). PENALTY USM Holding on BARNES, Kyron enforced 10 yards from the USM47 to the USM37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 20
OWN 37
-10
99.0%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jay Jones) to the SoMis 33Similar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 24
OWN 33
+9
99.0%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 9 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+5
99.0%
Zach Wilcke run for 5 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q2 9:11
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
99.0%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:11
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
99.0%
Mason Hunt punt for 42 yds, downed at the NWSt 11Similar
Q2 7:24
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
99.1%
Mason Hunt punt for 42 yds, downed at the NWSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:371% → 1%
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
99.1%
Zachary Clement pass complete to Kennieth Lacy for 5 yds to the NWSt 16Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+8
99.1%
Zachary Clement pass complete to Zach Patterson for 8 yds to the NWSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-4
99.1%
Zachary Clement sacked by Swayze Bozeman for a loss of 4 yards to the NWSt 20Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 14
OWN 20
+6
99.2%
Zachary Clement pass complete to Kennieth Lacy for 6 yds to the NWSt 26Similar
Q2 7:24
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
99.1%
Zachary Clement pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:24
4TH & 8
OWN 26
+33
99.1%
Scotty Roblow punt for 49 yds , Natrone Brooks returns for 33 yds to the NWSt 42Similar
Q2 4:47
4TH & 8
OWN 26
+33
99.4%
Scotty Roblow punt for 49 yds , Natrone Brooks returns for 33 yds to the NWSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17TD
6 plays · 42 yds · 1:1599% → 99%
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
99.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the NWSt 38Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 6
OPP 38
0
99.3%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:47
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+16
99.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 16 yds to the NWSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
99.3%
WILCKE, Zach pass to the left incomplete intended for BROWNLEE, Jason thrown to the NSU5. PENALTY NSU Pass Interference on ANDERSON, Cedric enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the NSU7 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.3%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.4%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 7 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:551% → 1%
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Zachary Clement pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.5%
London Williams run for 2 yds to the NWSt 27Similar
Q2 3:32
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
99.5%
Zachary Clement pass complete to Zach Patterson for 9 yds to the NWSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
99.5%
Zachary Clement run for 1 yd to the NWSt 37Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+6
99.5%
Zachary Clement pass complete to Zach Patterson for 6 yds to the NWSt 43Similar
Q2 3:32
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
99.5%
Zachary Clement pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:32
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
99.5%
Scotty Roblow punt for 46 ydsSimilar
Q2 1:37
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
99.5%
Scotty Roblow punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19TD
1 play · 89 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+89
99.6%
Ty Keyes pass complete to Jalen May for 89 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 20DOWNS
10 plays · 33 yds · 0:580% → 0%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.6%
Zachary Clement pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.6%
Zachary Clement pass complete to Javon Antonio for 8 yds to the NWSt 33Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+19
99.6%
Zachary Clement pass complete to Javon Antonio for 19 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
99.6%
Zachary Clement pass complete to Javon Antonio for 6 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
99.7%
Zachary Clement pass complete to Javon Antonio for 6 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
99.7%
Zachary Clement pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
99.7%
Zachary Clement pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
99.7%
Zachary Clement pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:26
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
99.7%
Zachary Clement pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21END OF HALF
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:26100% → 100%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
99.7%
Janari Dean run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
99.7%
Janari Dean run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:16100% → 100%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
99.7%
Ty Keyes pass complete to Janari Dean for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 4
50
+5
99.7%
NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, Offsides (Maurice Campbell) to the NWSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
99.7%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, False Start (Matt Ryals) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 15
50
+3
99.7%
Janari Dean run for 3 yds to the NWSt 47Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 12
OPP 47
+2
99.7%
Janari Dean run for 2 yds to the NWSt 45Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
99.7%
Ty Keyes pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:52
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
99.6%
Mason Hunt punt for 43 yds, downed at the NWSt 2Similar
Q3 12:36
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
99.7%
Mason Hunt punt for 43 yds, downed at the NWSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 23SF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
99.7%
Kennieth Lacy run for 4 yds to the NWSt 6Similar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+3
99.7%
Kennieth Lacy run for 3 yds to the NWSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24TD
11 plays · 45 yds · 5:09100% → 100%
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
99.8%
Ty Keyes pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 1 yd to the NWSt 44Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+5
99.8%
Janari Dean run for 5 yds to the NWSt 39Similar
Q3 11:07
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+6
99.8%
Janari Dean run for 6 yds to the NWSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
99.8%
Ty Keyes pass complete to Jalen May for a loss of 2 yards to the NWSt 35Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+2
99.8%
Janari Dean run for 2 yds to the NWSt 33Similar
Q3 11:07
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+9
99.8%
Ty Keyes run for 9 yds to the NWSt 24Similar
Q3 11:07
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+3
99.8%
Janari Dean run for 3 yds to the NWSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
99.8%
Ty Keyes pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+9
99.8%
Ty Keyes run for 9 yds to the NWSt 12Similar
Q3 11:07
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+5
99.8%
Demarcus Jones run for 5 yds to the NWSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.8%
Ty Keyes 7 Yd Run (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 25FG
6 plays · 49 yds · 2:070% → 0%
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.9%
London Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NWSt 24Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+50
99.9%
Zachary Clement pass complete to Travon Jones for 50 yds to the SoMis 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
99.9%
London Williams run for 1 yd to the SoMis 25Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 9
OPP 25
-1
99.9%
Zachary Clement sacked by Caleb Garner and Josh Ratcliff for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 26Similar
Q3 5:58
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
99.9%
Zachary Clement pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:51
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+43
99.9%
Eddie Godina 43 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 26TD
1 play · 58 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
99.9%
Zay Franks 58 Yd pass from Ty Keyes (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 27TD
10 plays · 55 yds · 2:260% → 0%
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+27
99.9%
Zachary Clement pass complete to Kennieth Lacy for 27 yds to the SoMis 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
99.9%
CLEMENT, Zachary pass to the right complete for 8 yards to JONES, Travon caught at the USM26 and advanced to the USM20 (KNIGHT, Tylan). PENALTY Before the snap, NSU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the USM28 to the USM33. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+3
99.9%
Zachary Clement pass complete to Jaheim Walters for 3 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 12
OPP 30
0
99.9%
Zachary Clement pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 12
OPP 30
0
99.9%
Zachary Clement pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:01
3RD & 12
OPP 30
+26
99.9%
Zachary Clement pass complete to Ke'Nard King for 26 yds to the SoMis 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
99.9%
LACY, Kenneith rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the USM2 (COOLEY, Armondous;HOPKINS, Tyrese). PENALTY Before the snap, USM Illegal Substitution enforced half the distance from the goal, 2 yards from the USM4 to the USM2. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-13
99.9%
Zachary Clement run for 2 yds to the SoMis 0 NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Javon Antonio) to the SoMis 15Similar
Q3 1:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+15
99.9%
Ke'Nard King 15 Yd pass from Zachary Clement (Eddie Godina Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 28DOWNS
11 plays · 76 yds · 5:15100% → 100%
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
99.9%
RICHARD, Dajon rush to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the USM21 (WASHINGTON, Jacob). PENALTY USM Holding on MIDDLETON, James enforced half the distance from the goal, 8 yards from the USM16 to the USM8 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:03
1ST & 18
OWN 8
0
99.9%
Kenyon Clay run for no gain to the SoMis 8Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 18
OWN 8
+46
99.9%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Richard Mays Jr. for 46 yds to the NWSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 18
OWN 8
+46
99.9%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Richard Mays Jr. for 46 yds to the NWSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Dajon Richard run for no gain to the NWSt 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
99.9%
Trey Lowe run for 3 yds to the NWSt 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+33
99.9%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 33 yds to the NWSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.9%
Chandler Pittman run for no gain to the NWSt 10Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
99.9%
Chandler Pittman run for a loss of 1 yard to the NWSt 11Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+9
99.9%
Dajon Richard run for 9 yds to the NWSt 2Similar
Q4 10:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-6
99.9%
Dajon Richard run for a loss of 6 yards to the NWSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 29PUNT
12 plays · 11 yds · 2:270% → 0%
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
99.9%
Zachary Clement pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
99.9%
Zachary Clement pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:48
3RD & 10
OWN 8
+12
99.9%
Zachary Clement pass complete to Jamel Thomas for 12 yds to the NWSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
99.9%
Zachary Clement pass complete to Ke'Nard King for 6 yds to the NWSt 26Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+8
99.9%
Zachary Clement pass complete to Jamel Thomas for 8 yds to the NWSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Zachary Clement pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-15
99.9%
CLEMENT, Zachary pass to the left complete for -5 yards to WILLIAMS, London caught at the NSU31 and advanced to the NSU29 (QUEWON, Dominic). PENALTY NSU Personal Foul on JONES, Travon enforced 15 yards from the NSU34 to the NSU19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 25
OWN 19
0
99.9%
Zachary Clement pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:48
3RD & 25
OWN 19
0
99.9%
Zachary Clement pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 25
OWN 19
0
100.0%
Zachary Clement pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:21
4TH & 25
OWN 19
+27
100.0%
Scotty Roblow punt for 49 yds , Tiaquelin Mims returns for 27 yds to the NWSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 30TD
8 plays · 41 yds · 4:18100% → 100%
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-6
99.9%
Jake Lange sacked by Dez Williams for a loss of 6 yards to the NWSt 47Similar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 16
OPP 47
+13
99.9%
Kenyon Clay run for 13 yds to the NWSt 34Similar
Q4 8:21
3RD & 3
OPP 34
-1
99.9%
Kenyon Clay run for a loss of 1 yard to the NWSt 35Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 3
OPP 34
-1
100.0%
Kenyon Clay run for a loss of 1 yard to the NWSt 35Similar
Q4 6:00
4TH & 4
OPP 35
+27
99.9%
Jake Lange pass complete to Davis Dalton for 27 yds to the NWSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
100.0%
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the NWSt 6Similar
Q4 4:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
100.0%
Kenyon Clay 6 Yd Run (Andrew Stein Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 31PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:540% → 0%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
100.0%
Kennieth Lacy run for 1 yd to the NWSt 37Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
100.0%
Zachary Clement pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
100.0%
Zachary Clement pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:55
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
100.0%
Scotty Roblow punt for 47 yds , Tiaquelin Mims returns for no gain to the SoMis 12Similar
Q4 3:01
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
100.0%
Scotty Roblow punt for 47 yds , Tiaquelin Mims returns for no gain to the SoMis 37 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Holding Illegal Block in the Back on CLAY, Kenyon enforced (Jay Hampton) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 32END OF GAME
5 plays · 12 yds · 3:01100% → 100%
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
100.0%
Jimmie Haywood run for 4 yds to the SoMis 16Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+4
100.0%
Jimmie Haywood run for 4 yds to the SoMis 20Similar
Q4 3:01
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+3
100.0%
Jimmie Haywood run for 3 yds to the SoMis 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
100.0%
Jimmie Haywood run for 1 yd to the SoMis 24Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
100.0%
Jimmie Haywood run for 1 yd to the SoMis 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:52
Swayze Bozeman 12 Yd Fumble Return (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)
+1.3
TD · Q2 9:20
Frank Gore Jr. run for 28 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)
+0.9
TD · Q1 4:06
Ty Keyes pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 40 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)
+0.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com