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BUF

Buffalo 34 at Massachusetts 7

MASS
2022 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2022 · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
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Win probability · MASS
modelMASS aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playMASS scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameTD-3MASS 17.6%Cole Snyder pass complete to QuianWilliams for 4 yds for a TD, (AlexMcNulty KICK)AWAY 10 - HOME 0 · Q2 14:56
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:56 · Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 38Home team on offense−4.4Pregame prior−29.4Score differential−2.3Garbage-time factor−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:21: Al-Jay Henderson run for 84 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +5.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:42: Ellis Merriweather run for 5 yds for a TD, (Cameron Carson KICK) — MASS win probability +4.3 pts (now 19%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:07: Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 49 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +5.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:00: [NH] Kneel down by DZURO, Garrett at UMA18 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00. — MASS win probability +3.9 pts (now 12%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 5:54: Alex McNulty 39 yd FG GOOD — BUF win probability +4.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MASS made the numbers' call on 6 of 9BUF made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 13:24MASS 4th & 19 at MASS 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:28BUF 4th & 5 at MASS 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.2%
    74% to make
    Punt
    82.7%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:44MASS 4th & 15 at MASS 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:15BUF 4th & 11 at BUF 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:56MASS 4th & 20 at BUF 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−0.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:56BUF 4th & 4 at MASS 4, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    79.2%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    77.2%−2.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:39MASS 4th & 4 at MASS 44, down 10
    Close callPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:16MASS 4th & 4 at MASS 35, down 17
    Close callPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:56BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 38, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:54BUF 4th & 5 at MASS 21, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.4%
    74% to make
    Punt
    86.2%−4.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:54MASS 4th & 18 at BUF 43, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−1.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    4.4%−0.6
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:42MASS 4th & 8 at MASS 37, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:22MASS 4th & 7 at BUF 16, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%
    81% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:51BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 25, up 27
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:15MASS 4th & 6 at MASS 34, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MASS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1BUF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 14:56BUF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:21BUF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:42MASS Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:07BUF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:59BUF Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MASSDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:3615% → 16%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
15.1%
Garrett Dzuro pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
15.1%
Ellis Merriweather run for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 23Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-7
15.1%
Garrett Dzuro sacked by Ibrahim Kante for a loss of 7 yards to the UMass 16Similar
Q1 13:24
4TH & 19
OWN 16
-2
15.7%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 31 yds , Quian Williams returns for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2FG
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:5684% → 83%
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
15.7%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the UMass 46Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+6
15.7%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 6 yds to the UMass 40Similar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+14
15.7%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 14 yds to the UMass 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
15.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jamari Gassett for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 28Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 12
OPP 28
+4
15.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 4 yds to the UMass 24Similar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+3
15.7%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the UMass 21Similar
Q1 10:28
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+39
17.0%
Alex McNulty 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:4417% → 17%
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
17.0%
Ellis Merriweather run for no gain to the UMass 25Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-6
17.0%
Garrett Dzuro sacked by Ibrahim Kante and Jaylon Bass for a loss of 6 yards to the UMass 19Similar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+1
16.9%
Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Greg Desrosiers Jr. for 1 yd Greg Desrosiers Jr. fumbled, recovered by UMassSimilar
Q1 8:44
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+2
17.4%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 35 yds , Quian Williams returns for 2 yds to the Buff 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2983% → 81%
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
17.5%
Mike Washington run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 44Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+7
17.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Boobie Curry for 7 yds to the UMass 49Similar
Q1 8:44
3RD & 6
OPP 49
0
17.5%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:44
4TH & 6
OPP 49
-5
17.7%
BUFFALO Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jaylon Bass) to the Buff 46Similar
Q1 7:15
4TH & 11
OWN 46
0
18.6%
Anthony Venneri punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 4:1918% → 20%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
18.4%
Garrett Dzuro run for 5 yds to the UMass 25Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+13
18.4%
Garrett Dzuro run for 13 yds to the UMass 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
18.6%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the UMass 35Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+2
18.3%
Garrett Dzuro run for 2 yds to the UMass 37Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+25
18.2%
Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Isaac Ross for 25 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
19.0%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 8
OPP 36
-4
21.1%
Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Isaac Ross for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 40Similar
Q1 3:25
3RD & 12
OPP 40
0
20.5%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 2:56
4TH & 20
OPP 48
0
20.2%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the Buff 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:0079% → 82%
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+44
20.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 44 yds to the UMass 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
19.9%
Mike Washington run for 5 yds to the UMass 31Similar
Q1 2:56
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+22
19.7%
Mike Washington run for 22 yds to the UMass 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
20.0%
WASHINGTON, Mike rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the UMA7 (JOHNSON, Gerrell;MATHURIN, Cletus), clock 01:30. PENALTY Before the snap, UMA Illegal Substitution enforced half the distance from the goal, 4 yards from the UMA9 to the UMA5. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
20.0%
Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the UMass 1Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
20.0%
Mike Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 2Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
20.6%
Quian Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 4Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
17.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:1718% → 18%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
17.9%
Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Isaiah Holiness for 13 yds to the UMass 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
18.2%
Garrett Dzuro run for 1 yd to the UMass 39Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+3
18.2%
Ellis Merriweather run for 3 yds to the UMass 42Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+2
18.1%
Ellis Merriweather run for 2 yds to the UMass 44Similar
Q2 12:39
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
18.1%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Quian Williams at the Buff 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8TD
2 plays · 84 yds · 0:1882% → 88%
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
18.0%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+84
12.5%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 84 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 9TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:3914% → 19%
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
13.8%
Kay'Ron Adams run for 2 yds to the UMass 27Similar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+25
13.8%
Garrett Dzuro pass complete to George Johnson III for 25 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
14.6%
Kay'Ron Adams run for 12 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
14.5%
Kay'Ron Adams run for 13 yds to the Buff 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
14.8%
Garrett Dzuro pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-1
14.8%
Kay'Ron Adams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 24Similar
Q2 12:21
3RD & 11
OPP 24
+12
14.5%
Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Isaac Ross for 12 yds to the Buff 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
14.8%
Gino Campiotti run for 6 yds to the Buff 6Similar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+1
14.8%
Kay'Ron Adams run for 1 yd to the Buff 5Similar
Q2 7:42
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+5
19.1%
Ellis Merriweather run for 5 yds for a TD, (Cameron Carson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10TD
6 plays · 91 yds · 2:2782% → 89%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
17.7%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 12Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+39
17.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 39 yds to the UMass 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
16.6%
Ron Cook Jr. run for no gain to the UMass 49Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
16.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for no gain to the UMass 49Similar
Q2 5:07
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+49
10.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 49 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:4513% → 13%
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
13.1%
Garrett Dzuro run for 11 yds to the UMass 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-3
13.2%
Ellis Merriweather run for a loss of 3 yards to the UMass 26Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 13
OWN 26
+9
13.1%
Kay'Ron Adams run for 9 yds to the UMass 35Similar
Q2 5:01
3RD & 4
OWN 35
0
13.5%
Garrett Dzuro pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:16
4TH & 4
OWN 35
0
12.7%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 39 yds , returns for no gain to the Buff 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12FUMBLE
13 plays · 67 yds · 3:0089% → 92%
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
11.0%
Mike Washington run for no gain to the Buff 14Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+7
11.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Robbie Mangas for 7 yds to the Buff 21Similar
Q2 3:16
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+10
11.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 10 yds to the Buff 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
10.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 9 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 1
OWN 40
0
8.7%
Mike Washington run for no gain to the Buff 40Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+15
8.7%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Cletus Mathurin) to the UMass 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
8.3%
SNYDER, Cole pass to the left complete for -1 yard to COOK, Ron caught at the UMA47 and advanced to the UMA45 (WALLACE, Josh). PENALTY Before the snap, UMA Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the UMA44 to the UMA39. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 5
OPP 39
+4
7.7%
Cole Snyder run for 4 yds to the UMass 35Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+3
7.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 3 yds to the UMass 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
7.9%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
8.4%
Cole Snyder pass intercepted Jordan Mahoney fumbled, recovered by UMass Javon BattenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
12.4%
[NH] Kneel down by DZURO, Garrett at UMA18 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 3:0489% → 89%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
11.4%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 6 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
11.3%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
11.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 2 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
11.4%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
11.4%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
11.1%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:56
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+10
10.8%
Anthony Venneri punt for 37 yds , Isaac Ross returns for 10 yds to the UMass 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
11.7%
Ellis Merriweather run for 13 yds to the UMass 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
12.5%
Ellis Merriweather run for a loss of 3 yards to the UMass 45Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 13
OWN 45
0
11.8%
Garrett Dzuro pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:56
3RD & 13
OWN 45
+8
11.6%
Garrett Dzuro run for 8 yds to the Buff 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16FG
10 plays · 44 yds · 4:0090% → 96%
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
10.1%
Mike Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 34Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
10.2%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+11
10.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 11 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
9.5%
Mike Washington run for 6 yds to the UMass 49Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+8
9.4%
Cole Snyder run for 8 yds to the UMass 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
9.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 15 yds to the UMass 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
9.1%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the UMass 25Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+4
9.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Mike Washington for 4 yds to the UMass 21Similar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 5
OPP 21
0
9.2%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:54
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+39
4.5%
Alex McNulty 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 32 yds · 2:006% → 4%
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
6.1%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 23Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+15
6.0%
BUFFALO Penalty, Roughing the Passer on BAZILE, C.J. enforced (C.J. Bazile) to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
7.4%
Garrett Dzuro pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-1
7.4%
Kay'Ron Adams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 36Similar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 11
OPP 36
0
6.9%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 3:54
4TH & 18
OPP 43
0
4.4%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Quian Williams at the Buff 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18INT
8 plays · 26 yds · 3:4997% → 97%
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
3.5%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the Buff 15Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+12
3.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Ray Embry for 12 yds to the Buff 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
3.5%
HENDERSON, Al-Jay rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the BUF30, End of Play. PENALTY Before the snap, BUF False Start enforced 5 yards from the BUF27 to the BUF22. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 15
OWN 22
0
3.5%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 15
OWN 22
+4
3.5%
Cole Snyder run for 4 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q3 3:54
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+12
3.5%
Cole Snyder run for 12 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
3.1%
Al-Jay Henderson run for no gain to the Buff 38Similar
Q3 0:05
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
2.7%
Cole Snyder pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:184% → 3%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
3.5%
Ellis Merriweather run for 2 yds to the UMass 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
3.5%
Garrett Dzuro pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
3.4%
Garrett Dzuro pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:42
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
3.3%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the Buff 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 2:4397% → 100%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
2.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Boobie Curry for 19 yds to the UMass 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
2.6%
Ron Cook Jr. run for no gain to the UMass 43Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+13
2.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 13 yds to the UMass 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
2.5%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the UMass 27Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
2.5%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+27
0.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 27 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 21DOWNS
12 plays · 65 yds · 4:311% → 0%
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
0.5%
BUFFALO Penalty, Illegal use of the hands on FOLSOM, Daishon enforced (Daishon Folsom) to the UMass 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
0.5%
Zamar Wise run for 2 yds to the UMass 40Similar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+1
0.5%
Kay'Ron Adams run for 1 yd to the UMass 41Similar
Q4 11:53
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+15
0.5%
WISE, Zamar pass to the left incomplete intended for JOHNSON, George thrown to the BUF25. PENALTY BUF Pass Interference on BROWN, Solomon enforced 15 yards to the BUF44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
0.6%
Zamar Wise pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+8
0.6%
Kay'Ron Adams run for 8 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q4 11:53
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+17
0.6%
Kay'Ron Adams run for 17 yds to the Buff 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
0.6%
Zamar Wise run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 20Similar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 11
OPP 20
-4
0.6%
Zamar Wise run for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 24Similar
Q4 7:27
3RD & 15
OPP 24
+8
0.2%
Zamar Wise run for 8 yds to the Buff 16Similar
Q4 7:22
4TH & 7
OPP 16
0
0.2%
Zamar Wise pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:31100% → 100%
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
0.2%
Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the Buff 20Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+3
0.2%
Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+2
0.2%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q4 4:51
4TH & 1
OWN 25
0
0.2%
Anthony Venneri punt for 61 yds, downed at the UMass 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:360% → 0%
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
0.2%
Zamar Wise run for 7 yds to the UMass 21Similar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+9
0.2%
Zamar Wise pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 9 yds to the UMass 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
0.2%
Zamar Wise pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
0.2%
Ellis Merriweather run for 4 yds to the UMass 34Similar
Q4 4:51
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
0.2%
Zamar Wise pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:15
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
0.1%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 55 yds, downed at the Buff 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24END OF GAME
5 plays · 5 yds · 3:15100% → 100%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
0.1%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 9 yds to the Buff 20Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 1
OWN 20
+3
0.1%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the Buff 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
0.1%
[NH] Kneel down by BUF at BUF21 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 12
OWN 21
0
0.1%
[NH] Kneel down by BUF at BUF18 (team loss of 3).Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 15
OWN 18
0
0.1%
[NH] Kneel down by BUF at BUF16 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:07
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 49 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)
-5.6
TD · Q2 12:21
Al-Jay Henderson run for 84 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)
-5.5
FG · Q3 5:54
Alex McNulty 39 yd FG GOOD
-4.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com