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MASS

Massachusetts 10 at Toledo 55

TOL
2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadMASS aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreMASS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:03 · CJ Kolodziey punt for 29 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 153Pregame prior+14.8Home team on offense+35.1Score differential+28.4Blowout margin+16.4Garbage-time factor+7.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:01: Dequan Finn 21 Yd Run (Thomas Cluckey Kick) — TOL win probability +0.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:08: Peny Boone 3 Yd Run (Thomas Cluckey Kick) — TOL win probability +1.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:54: Devin Maddox 11 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Thomas Cluckey Kick) — TOL win probability +1.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:07: Isaiah Holiness 1 Yd Run (Cameron Carson Kick) — MASS win probability +2.5 pts (now 3%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:53: Dequan Finn 15 Yd Run (Thomas Cluckey Kick) — TOL win probability +1.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MASS made the numbers' call on 12 of 14
  1. Q1 13:08MASS 4th & 12 at MASS 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:58TOL 4th & 6 at MASS 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    94.9%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    94.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:01MASS 4th & 11 at MASS 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:08MASS 4th & 8 at MASS 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:20TOL 4th & 5 at MASS 29, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    94.8%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    93.9%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:03MASS 4th & 2 at MASS 39, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.3%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:27MASS 4th & 7 at MASS 45, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:36TOL 4th & 8 at TOL 26, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:42MASS 4th & 4 at TOL 15, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    -0.8%−1.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:42MASS 4th & 4 at TOL 15, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    -0.8%−1.9
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:07MASS 4th & 1 at TOL 1, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:05MASS 4th & 1 at TOL 43, down 28
    Close callPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:40MASS 4th & 7 at MASS 32, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:14TOL 4th & 8 at TOL 47, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:09TOL 4th & 12 at MASS 25, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:04MASS 4th & 7 at MASS 29, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:46TOL 4th & 9 at MASS 9, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:03MASS 4th & 1 at MASS 34, down 41
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:03MASS 4th & 1 at TOL 44, down 48
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    -0.1%−0.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:23MASS 4th & 6 at TOL 6, down 48
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 7 of 7MASS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:49TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:01TOL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:08TOL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:54TOL Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:07MASS Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:53TOL Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:29TOL Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:03TOL Touchdown, up 47 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MASSDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:484% → 5%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.6%
George Johnson III run for 3 yds to the UMass 28Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
95.6%
Ellis Merriweather run for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 26Similar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-3
95.5%
Gino Campiotti pass complete to Ellis Merriweather for a loss of 3 yards to the UMass 23Similar
Q1 13:08
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
95.3%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Adam Beale at the UMass 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2TD
8 plays · 41 yds · 3:1395% → 95%
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
95.3%
Micah Kelly run for 3 yds to the UMass 38Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 7
OPP 38
0
95.3%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:38
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+1
95.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Micah Kelly for 1 yd to the UMass 37Similar
Q1 11:58
4TH & 6
OPP 37
+18
95.1%
Dequan Finn run for 18 yds to the UMass 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
95.0%
Micah Kelly run for no gain to the UMass 19Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+15
94.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 15 yds to the UMass 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
94.8%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the UMass 2Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.1%
Peny Boone 2 Yd Run (Thomas Cluckey Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:485% → 5%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
94.9%
Gino Campiotti pass complete to Rico Arnold for 7 yds to the UMass 32Similar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
94.9%
Gino Campiotti run for 7 yds to the UMass 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
94.9%
Ellis Merriweather run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 38Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 11
OWN 38
0
94.9%
Gino Campiotti pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 11
OWN 38
0
94.9%
Gino Campiotti pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
94.8%
Gino Campiotti pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:01
4TH & 11
OWN 38
0
94.8%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 26 yds, downed at the Toled 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4TD
9 plays · 64 yds · 2:0095% → 95%
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
94.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 15 yds to the UMass 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
94.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 5 yds to the UMass 44Similar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
94.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 5 yds to the UMass 44Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+23
94.9%
Micah Kelly run for 23 yds to the UMass 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+23
94.9%
Micah Kelly run for 23 yds to the UMass 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
94.9%
Micah Kelly run for no gain to the UMass 21Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
94.9%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
94.9%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+21
95.4%
Dequan Finn 21 Yd Run (Thomas Cluckey Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:505% → 5%
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
95.1%
Gino Campiotti run for 2 yds to the UMass 20Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+2
95.1%
Gino Campiotti run for 2 yds to the UMass 22Similar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+11
95.1%
Gino Campiotti pass complete to Cameron Sullivan-Brown for 11 yds to the UMass 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+11
95.1%
Gino Campiotti pass complete to Cameron Sullivan-Brown for 11 yds to the UMass 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
95.1%
Gino Campiotti pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+2
95.1%
Tim Baldwin Jr. run for 2 yds to the UMass 35Similar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
95.1%
Gino Campiotti pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:08
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
95.0%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 29 yds, downed at the Toled 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6TD
17 plays · 64 yds · 4:0095% → 97%
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
95.2%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+10
95.2%
FINN, Dequan pass up the middle incomplete intended for MADDOX, Devin thrown to the TOL50; QB hurried by CUSHNIE, Marcus. PENALTY MAS Holding enforced 10 yards from the TOL36 to the TOL46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+10
95.2%
FINN, Dequan pass up the middle incomplete intended for MADDOX, Devin thrown to the TOL50; QB hurried by CUSHNIE, Marcus. PENALTY MAS Holding enforced 10 yards from the TOL36 to the TOL46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+20
95.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 20 yds to the UMass 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+20
95.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 20 yds to the UMass 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
95.3%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+7
95.3%
Jacquez Stuart run for 7 yds to the UMass 27Similar
Q1 1:20
3RD & 3
OPP 27
-2
94.9%
Jacquez Stuart run for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 29Similar
Q1 1:20
3RD & 3
OPP 27
-2
94.9%
Jacquez Stuart run for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 29Similar
Q1 1:20
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+9
94.8%
Dequan Finn run for 9 yds to the UMass 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
95.0%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+8
94.9%
Peny Boone run for 8 yds to the UMass 12Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+5
94.8%
Dequan Finn run for 5 yds to the UMass 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
95.2%
Peny Boone run for 4 yds to the UMass 3Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
96.9%
Peny Boone 3 Yd Run (Thomas Cluckey Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 7DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:014% → 3%
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
96.5%
Ellis Merriweather run for 2 yds to the UMass 33Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+5
96.6%
Ellis Merriweather run for 5 yds to the UMass 38Similar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+1
96.6%
Ellis Merriweather run for 1 yd to the UMass 39Similar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
97.2%
BOONE, Peny rush to the left for a loss of 4 yards to the MAS29 (LOGAN, Nahji;RUDOLPH, Tyler). PENALTY MAS Face mask on LOGAN, Nahji enforced half the distance from the goal, 13 yards from the MAS25 to the MAS12 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:03
4TH & 2
OWN 39
+1
96.8%
Gino Campiotti run for 1 yd to the UMass 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8TD
5 plays · 40 yds · 1:0997% → 98%
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
97.2%
FINN, Dequan pass to the right incomplete intended for MADDOX, Devin thrown to the MAS14. PENALTY MAS Pass Interference on WALLACE, Josh enforced 15 yards to the MAS25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
97.2%
BOONE, Peny rush to the left for a loss of 4 yards to the MAS29 (LOGAN, Nahji;RUDOLPH, Tyler). PENALTY MAS Face mask on LOGAN, Nahji enforced half the distance from the goal, 13 yards from the MAS25 to the MAS12 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
97.2%
Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the UMass 11Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 9
OPP 11
0
97.1%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:54
3RD & 9
OPP 11
+11
98.1%
Devin Maddox 11 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Thomas Cluckey Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 9PUNT
13 plays · 28 yds · 4:232% → 1%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
98.4%
Ellis Merriweather run for 10 yds to the UMass 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
98.4%
Ellis Merriweather run for 1 yd to the UMass 28Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+6
98.4%
Gino Campiotti pass complete to Rico Arnold for 6 yds to the UMass 34Similar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
98.4%
Ellis Merriweather run for 1 yd to the UMass 28Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+6
98.4%
Gino Campiotti pass complete to Rico Arnold for 6 yds to the UMass 34Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+8
98.3%
Gino Campiotti run for 8 yds to the UMass 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
98.3%
Gino Campiotti run for 2 yds to the UMass 44Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+4
98.3%
Gregory Desrosiers run for 4 yds to the UMass 48Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+2
98.3%
Gino Campiotti run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:33
4TH & 2
50
-5
98.8%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Delay Of Game (CJ Kolodziey) to the UMass 45Similar
Q2 6:27
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
99.0%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Adam Beale at the Toled 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5199% → 99%
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
98.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 2 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
98.6%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
98.5%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:36
4TH & 8
OWN 26
+4
98.6%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 37 yds , Isaac Ross returns for 4 yds to the UMass 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 11TD
17 plays · 59 yds · 5:291% → 3%
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
99.0%
Gregory Desrosiers run for 3 yds to the UMass 44Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+6
99.0%
Isaiah Holiness run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+6
99.0%
Isaiah Holiness run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:36
3RD & 1
50
+29
98.9%
Tim Baldwin Jr. run for 29 yds to the Toled 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
3RD & 1
50
+29
98.9%
Tim Baldwin Jr. run for 29 yds to the Toled 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
98.8%
Tim Baldwin Jr. run for 4 yds to the Toled 17Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+2
98.9%
Tim Baldwin Jr. run for 2 yds to the Toled 15Similar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 4
OPP 15
0
99.0%
Gino Campiotti run for no gain to the Toled 15Similar
Q2 2:42
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+6
98.6%
Gino Campiotti pass complete to Cameron Sullivan-Brown for 6 yds to the Toled 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:42
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+6
98.6%
Gino Campiotti pass complete to Cameron Sullivan-Brown for 6 yds to the Toled 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
99.1%
Tim Baldwin Jr. run for 4 yds to the Toled 5Similar
Q2 2:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
99.1%
Tim Baldwin Jr. run for 4 yds to the Toled 5Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
98.9%
Tim Baldwin Jr. run for 4 yds to the Toled 1Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.1%
Tim Baldwin Jr. run for no gain to the Toled 1Similar
Q2 0:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.6%
Isaiah Holiness 1 Yd Run (Cameron Carson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+7
98.0%
Jacquez Stuart run for 7 yds to the Toled 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0798% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.7%
Micah Kelly run for 2 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
97.7%
FINN, Dequan pass to the right incomplete intended for NEWTON, Jerjuan thrown to the TOL44. PENALTY MAS Offsides on KLAGES, Hugo enforced 5 yards from the TOL27 to the TOL32 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+19
97.7%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 19 yds to the UMass 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+28
97.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 28 yds to the UMass 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
97.8%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+6
97.8%
Jacquez Stuart run for 6 yds to the UMass 15Similar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+15
99.5%
Dequan Finn 15 Yd Run (Thomas Cluckey Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:431% → 1%
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
99.5%
Ellis Merriweather run for 6 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 4
OPP 46
0
99.4%
Gino Campiotti pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:48
3RD & 4
OPP 46
-5
99.4%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, False Start (Josh Atwood) to the UMass 49Similar
Q3 12:48
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+8
99.5%
Gino Campiotti run for 8 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q3 11:05
4TH & 1
OPP 43
0
99.5%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:36100% → 100%
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+39
99.5%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 39 yds to the UMass 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
99.5%
FINN, Dequan pass up the middle incomplete intended for MADDOX, Devin thrown to the MAS12. PENALTY MAS Pass Interference on RUDOLPH, Tyler enforced 15 yards to the MAS26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
99.7%
Jacquez Stuart 26 Yd Run (Thomas Cluckey Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:440% → 0%
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
99.6%
Tim Baldwin Jr. run for 2 yds to the UMass 31Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+1
99.6%
Isaiah Holiness run for 1 yd to the UMass 32Similar
Q3 10:24
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
99.6%
Gino Campiotti pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:40
4TH & 7
OWN 32
+15
99.7%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 38 yds , Adam Beale returns for 15 yds to the Toled 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:26100% → 100%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
99.7%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
99.7%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 8
OWN 47
0
99.7%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:14
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
99.7%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 18FUMBLE
6 plays · 34 yds · 1:350% → 0%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
99.7%
TOLEDO Penalty, Offsides (Rourke Freeburg) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
99.7%
Gino Campiotti run for 7 yds to the UMass 40 Gino Campiotti fumbled, recovered by UMass T.Y. HardingSimilar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+1
99.7%
Gregory Desrosiers run for 1 yd to the UMass 41Similar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
99.7%
Gino Campiotti run for 7 yds to the UMass 40 Gino Campiotti fumbled, recovered by UMass T.Y. HardingSimilar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+1
99.7%
Gregory Desrosiers run for 1 yd to the UMass 41Similar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+4
99.7%
Gino Campiotti run for 4 yds to the UMass 23 Gino Campiotti fumbled, recovered by Toled Troy Simon fumbled, recovered by UMassSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19FG
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:30100% → 100%
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
99.7%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
99.7%
Peny Boone run for no gain to the UMass 23Similar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 10
OPP 23
-2
99.7%
Dequan Finn sacked by Marcus Bradley for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 25Similar
Q3 5:09
4TH & 12
OPP 25
+43
99.8%
Thomas Cluckey 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:000% → 0%
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
99.8%
Ellis Merriweather run for 3 yds to the UMass 29Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Gino Campiotti pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:04
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Gino Campiotti pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:04
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
99.8%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 41 yds , Adam Beale returns for no gain to the Toled 29 TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive Holding (Andre Fuller) to the Toled 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21FG
14 plays · 70 yds · 4:18100% → 100%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
99.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 5 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+5
99.8%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Offsides (Hugo Klages) to the Toled 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
99.8%
Willie Shaw III run for 1 yd to the Toled 32Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+15
99.8%
FINN, Dequan sacked for a loss of 1 yard at the TOL31 (IGWENAGU, Zukudo). PENALTY MAS Face mask on ARMSTRONG, Tristan enforced 15 yards from the TOL32 to the TOL47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
99.8%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Sideline Interference (Tristan Armstrong) to the UMass 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+17
99.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 17 yds to the UMass 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
99.8%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the UMass 9Similar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 5
OPP 9
+8
99.8%
Dequan Finn run for 8 yds to the UMass 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
99.8%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UMass 6Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
99.8%
Willie Shaw III run for a loss of 3 yards to the UMass 9Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.8%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.8%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
99.8%
Thomas Cluckey 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:430% → 0%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Tim Baldwin Jr. run for 4 yds to the UMass 29Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
99.9%
Gregory Desrosiers run for 3 yds to the UMass 32Similar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
99.9%
Brady Olson run for 2 yds to the UMass 34Similar
Q4 13:03
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
99.9%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23TD
9 plays · 63 yds · 4:00100% → 100%
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
99.9%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Personal Foul (Hugo Klages) to the UMass 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
99.9%
Tucker Gleason run for 6 yds to the UMass 37Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+16
99.9%
Willie Shaw III run for 16 yds to the UMass 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
99.9%
Willie Shaw III run for 4 yds to the UMass 17Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+5
99.9%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Offsides (Marcus Cushnie) to the UMass 12Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+6
99.9%
Tucker Gleason run for 6 yds to the UMass 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
99.9%
Willie Shaw III run for 2 yds to the UMass 4Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
99.9%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 5Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
Willie Shaw III 5 Yd Run (Thomas Cluckey Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 24FG
19 plays · 69 yds · 8:400% → 0%
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Isaiah Holiness run for 4 yds to the UMass 29Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
99.9%
Ellis Merriweather run for 7 yds to the UMass 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
99.9%
Ellis Merriweather run for 1 yd to the UMass 37Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+3
99.9%
Ellis Merriweather run for 3 yds to the UMass 40Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+7
99.9%
Brady Olson pass complete to Eni Falayi for 7 yds to the UMass 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
99.9%
Gregory Desrosiers run for 2 yds to the UMass 49Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+5
99.9%
Gregory Desrosiers run for 5 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+2
99.9%
Ellis Merriweather run for 2 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q4 9:03
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+6
99.9%
Ellis Merriweather run for 6 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
99.9%
Ellis Merriweather run for 4 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 6
OPP 34
-6
99.9%
George Johnson III run for a loss of 6 yards to the Toled 40Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 12
OPP 40
+14
99.9%
Brady Olson pass complete to Cameron Sullivan-Brown for 14 yds to the Toled 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
99.9%
Gregory Desrosiers run for 3 yds to the Toled 23Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+2
99.9%
Ellis Merriweather run for 2 yds to the Toled 21Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+6
99.9%
TOLEDO Penalty, Personal Foul (D'Andre Ragin) to the Toled 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
99.9%
Isaiah Holiness run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 10Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
99.9%
Ellis Merriweather run for 4 yds to the Toled 6Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.9%
Brady Olson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
99.9%
Cameron Carson 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
100.0%
Jordan Lowe run for 8 yds to the Toled 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:07
Isaiah Holiness 1 Yd Run (Cameron Carson Kick)
-2.5
TD · Q2 14:08
Peny Boone 3 Yd Run (Thomas Cluckey Kick)
+1.8
TD · Q3 12:53
Dequan Finn 15 Yd Run (Thomas Cluckey Kick)
+1.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com