Try the model
CP

Cal Poly 7 at Fresno State 35

FRES
2022 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2022 · Valley Children's Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadCP aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreCP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:26 · Michael Roth punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the FrsSt 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 64Pregame prior+41.4Home team on offense+8.4Score differential+2.4Garbage-time factor+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.3Blowout margin+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:54: Jaden Jones pass complete to Bryson Allen for 9 yds for a TD, (Jaden Ohlsen KICK) — CP win probability +0.9 pts (now 2%) (top driver: CP has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:44: Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 13 yds to the FrsSt 21 for a 1ST down — FRES win probability +0.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 14:55: Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 13 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST down — CP win probability +0.7 pts (now 3%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:53: Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 19 yds for a TD, (Abraham Montano KICK) — FRES win probability +1.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:11: Jake Haener pass complete to Raymond Pauwels for 8 yds for a TD, (Abraham Montano KICK) — FRES win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 5CP made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 13:17CP 4th & 8 at CP 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:43CP 4th & 3 at CP 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:35CP 4th & 11 at CP 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:43FRES 4th & 19 at FRES 12, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:26CP 4th & 10 at CP 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:43FRES 4th & 14 at FRES 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:44CP 4th & 5 at FRES 8, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    3.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:35FRES 4th & 12 at FRES 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:58CP 4th & 18 at CP 4, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:53CP 4th & 6 at FRES 46, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%−0.2
    23% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:03CP 4th & 4 at FRES 5, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00FRES 4th & 1 at CP 16, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.0%−0.2
    81% to make
    Punt
    98.3%−0.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:11CP 4th & 2 at FRES 5, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:16CP 4th & 1 at FRES 1, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:10FRES 4th & 5 at CP 38, up 28
    Close callPunted · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CP made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 8:37FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:54FRES Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:29FRES Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:54CP Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:53FRES Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:11FRES Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CPDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:431% → 1%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.0%
Shakobe Harper run for a loss of 2 yards to the CPoly 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+3
99.0%
Jaden Jones pass complete to Bryson Allen for 3 yds to the CPoly 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+1
99.0%
Troy Fletcher run for 1 yd to the CPoly 27Similar
Q1 13:17
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
98.8%
Michael Roth punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2TD
12 plays · 68 yds · 4:4099% → 99%
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
98.8%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+9
98.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 9 yds to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+20
98.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 20 yds to the CPoly 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-15
98.8%
HAENER, Jake pass to the left incomplete intended for WATSON, Tre broken up by MIDDLETON, Christian at the CPM16. PENALTY FST Face mask enforced 15 yards from the CPM34 to the CPM49 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:17
1ST & 25
OPP 49
+2
98.8%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the CPoly 47Similar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 23
OPP 47
+5
98.8%
HAENER, Jake pass up the middle incomplete thrown to the CPM25. PENALTY CPM Offsides on GREIN, Dustin enforced 5 yards from the CPM47 to the CPM42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 18
OPP 42
+14
98.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 14 yds to the CPoly 28Similar
Q1 13:17
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+8
98.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 8 yds to the CPoly 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
98.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 9 yds to the CPoly 11Similar
Q1 13:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
98.8%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the CPoly 1Similar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+7
98.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 7 yds to the CPoly 4 for a 1ST down CAL POLY Penalty, Roughing the Passer on PONDER, Elijah enforced half the distance from the goal (Elijah Ponder) to the CPoly 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.6%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd for a TD, (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:542% → 2%
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.5%
Jaden Jones pass complete to Chris Coleman for 7 yds to the CPoly 32Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
98.5%
Jaden Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:04
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
98.5%
Jaden Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:43
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
98.5%
Michael Roth punt for 61 yds, downed at the FrsSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4TD
9 plays · 93 yds · 3:4999% → 99%
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
98.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 5 yds to the FrsSt 12Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 5
OWN 12
+17
98.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 17 yds to the FrsSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
98.5%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+21
98.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
50
+21
98.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ty Jones for 21 yds to the CPoly 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
98.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 5 yds to the CPoly 24Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+10
98.5%
Jordan Mims run for 10 yds to the CPoly 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
98.5%
Jake Haener run for 1 yd to the CPoly 13Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+13
98.6%
Nikko Remigio run for 13 yds for a TD, (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:192% → 2%
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
98.5%
Jaden Jones pass complete to Shakobe Harper for 20 yds to the CPoly 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
98.4%
Shakobe Harper run for a loss of 1 yard to the CPoly 44Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 11
OWN 44
0
98.5%
Jaden Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:54
3RD & 11
OWN 44
0
98.5%
Jaden Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:35
4TH & 11
OWN 44
0
98.4%
Michael Roth punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0699% → 99%
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
98.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 28 yds to the CPoly 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+19
98.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 19 yds to the CPoly 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
98.5%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+16
98.5%
Jordan Mims run for 16 yds to the CPoly 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
98.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 11 yds to the CPoly 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.9%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd for a TD, (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 7TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:351% → 2%
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.9%
Shakobe Harper run for 6 yds to the CPoly 31Similar
Q1 0:29
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+15
98.8%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Roughing the Passer on PERALES, David enforced (David Perales) to the CPoly 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+28
98.8%
Shakobe Harper run for 28 yds to the FrsSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
98.8%
Jaden Jones run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 15
-5
98.8%
CAL POLY Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jaden Jones) to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+1
98.8%
Jaden Jones pass complete to Evan Burkhart for 1 yd to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+5
98.8%
JONES, Jaden pass to the left incomplete thrown to the FST4. PENALTY FST Offsides enforced 5 yards from the FST19 to the FST14 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
98.8%
Jaden Jones pass complete to Bryson Allen for 8 yds to the FrsSt 6Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+2
98.8%
Shakobe Harper run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
98.8%
Jaden Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
98.8%
CAL POLY Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jaden Jones) to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
97.8%
Jaden Jones pass complete to Bryson Allen for 9 yds for a TD, (Jaden Ohlsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 2:0398% → 98%
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-10
98.2%
MIMS, Jordan rush up the middle for no gain to the FST21 (GREER, Robbie). PENALTY FST Holding on SPOMER, Jacob enforced 10 yards from the FST21 to the FST11 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:46
1ST & 20
OWN 11
+6
98.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jake Boust for 6 yds to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 14
OWN 17
-5
98.2%
Jake Haener sacked by Ethan Rodriguez for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 12Similar
Q2 11:46
3RD & 19
OWN 12
0
98.2%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:43
4TH & 19
OWN 12
0
98.0%
Carson King punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Giancarlo Woods at the CPoly 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:172% → 2%
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
97.9%
Jaden Jones run for 7 yds to the CPoly 45Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 3
OWN 45
-2
97.8%
Shakobe Harper run for a loss of 2 yards to the CPoly 43Similar
Q2 9:43
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
97.9%
Jaden Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:43
4TH & 5
OWN 43
-5
97.9%
CAL POLY Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the CPoly 38Similar
Q2 8:26
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
97.9%
Michael Roth punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the FrsSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:4398% → 98%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+20
98.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 20 yds to the CPoly 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
98.1%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the CPoly 46Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+7
98.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 7 yds to the CPoly 39Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 1
OPP 39
-5
98.1%
FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CPoly 44Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 6
OPP 44
-8
98.0%
Jake Haener sacked by David Meyer for a loss of 8 yards to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q2 5:43
4TH & 14
OWN 48
0
97.6%
Carson King punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Giancarlo Woods at the CPoly 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 11DOWNS
13 plays · 84 yds · 3:592% → 3%
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
97.7%
Shakobe Harper run for a loss of 1 yard to the CPoly 7Similar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 11
OWN 7
+57
97.7%
Jaden Jones pass complete to Chris Coleman for 57 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
97.4%
Jaden Jones run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+10
97.2%
Jaden Jones run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
97.2%
Jaden Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+7
97.3%
Jaden Jones run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 16Similar
Q2 5:43
3RD & 3
OPP 16
-5
97.4%
CAL POLY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q2 5:43
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+8
97.4%
Jaden Jones pass complete to Logan Booher for 8 yds to the FrsSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
97.2%
Jaden Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+2
96.5%
Shakobe Harper run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 11Similar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+3
96.7%
Jaden Jones pass complete to Adam Garwood for 3 yds to the FrsSt 8Similar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 5
OPP 8
0
96.8%
Jaden Jones pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12MISSED FG
14 plays · 70 yds · 1:4498% → 98%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+13
97.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 13 yds to the FrsSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
97.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Raymond Pauwels for 6 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+3
97.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 3 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+4
97.5%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
97.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 13 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
97.6%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-1
97.8%
Jake Haener sacked by Michael Otterstedt for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+18
97.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 18 yds to the CPoly 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
97.8%
Jake Haener run for 6 yds to the CPoly 30Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+8
97.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 8 yds to the CPoly 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
97.9%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+40
97.9%
Abraham Montano 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 3:2097% → 97%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
97.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 13 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
97.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jake Boust for 4 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
97.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 5 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+4
97.3%
Elijah Gilliam run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
97.4%
Elijah Gilliam run for 3 yds to the CPoly 48Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 48
-5
97.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 12
OWN 47
0
97.2%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:35
4TH & 12
OWN 47
0
96.8%
Carson King punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:373% → 3%
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
96.8%
Shakobe Harper run for a loss of 2 yards to the CPoly 10Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 12
OWN 10
0
96.9%
CAL POLY Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on WOODS, Giancarlo ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 11:35
3RD & 12
OWN 10
-2
96.9%
Jaden Jones sacked by Gavriel Lightfoot for a loss of 2 yards to the CPoly 8Similar
Q3 11:35
4TH & 14
OWN 8
0
97.1%
CAL POLY Penalty, False Start (Shakobe Harper) to the CPoly 4Similar
Q3 9:58
4TH & 18
OWN 4
+7
96.9%
Michael Roth punt for 37 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for 7 yds to the CPoly 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15TD
3 plays · 34 yds · 1:0597% → 99%
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
97.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 9 yds to the CPoly 25Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+6
97.2%
Jordan Mims run for 6 yds to the CPoly 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
99.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 19 yds for a TD, (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 16DOWNS
17 plays · 70 yds · 4:501% → 1%
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.8%
Jaden Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.8%
Adam Garwood run for 2 yds to the CPoly 27Similar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
98.8%
Jaden Jones run for 10 yds to the CPoly 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
98.8%
Jaden Jones pass complete to Adam Garwood for 1 yd to the CPoly 38Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+12
98.8%
Jaden Jones run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
50
+4
98.7%
Jaden Jones pass complete to Bryson Allen for 4 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
98.7%
Jaden Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
98.8%
Jaden Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:53
4TH & 6
OPP 46
+13
98.8%
Jaden Jones pass complete to Giancarlo Woods for 13 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
98.6%
Jaden Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+4
98.6%
Jaden Jones pass complete to Michael Roth for 4 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+18
98.7%
Jaden Jones pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 18 yds to the FrsSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
98.6%
Shakobe Harper run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 12Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 11
OPP 12
0
98.6%
Jaden Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 11
OPP 12
+7
98.7%
Shakobe Harper run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q3 4:03
4TH & 4
OPP 5
0
98.9%
Jaden Jones pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17TD
16 plays · 95 yds · 6:5299% → 100%
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
98.8%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Mose Vavao) declinedSimilar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 12
OWN 3
+15
98.8%
Jordan Mims run for 15 yds to the FrsSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
98.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 1 yd to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+11
98.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 11 yds to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
98.8%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+10
98.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 10 yds to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
98.9%
Jake Haener run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+13
98.9%
Nikko Remigio run for 13 yds to the CPoly 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
98.9%
Malik Sherrod run for 9 yds to the CPoly 30Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+5
99.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 5 yds to the CPoly 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
99.4%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+8
99.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ty Jones for 8 yds to the CPoly 17Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+1
99.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 1 yd to the CPoly 16Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+5
99.4%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the CPoly 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
99.4%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the CPoly 8Similar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
99.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Raymond Pauwels for 8 yds for a TD, (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 18DOWNS
15 plays · 73 yds · 5:550% → 0%
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.9%
Jaden Jones pass complete to Chris Coleman for 10 yds to the CPoly 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
99.9%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Tripping (Steven Comstock) to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Jaden Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+1
99.9%
Shakobe Harper run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q4 12:11
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+11
99.9%
Jaden Jones pass complete to Shakobe Harper for 11 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+22
99.9%
Jaden Jones pass complete to Bryson Allen for 22 yds to the FrsSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
99.9%
Shakobe Harper run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 11Similar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+6
99.9%
Jaden Jones pass complete to Bryson Allen for 6 yds to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q4 12:11
3RD & 2
OPP 5
0
99.9%
Adam Garwood run for no gain to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q4 12:11
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+4
99.9%
Jaden Jones pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 4 yds to the FrsSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.8%
Shakobe Harper run for no gain to the FrsSt 1Similar
Q4 12:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
Jaden Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
Shakobe Harper run for no gain to the FrsSt 1Similar
Q4 6:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
99.9%
Shakobe Harper run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 60 yds · 5:06100% → 100%
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
99.9%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+1
99.9%
Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 6Similar
Q4 6:16
3RD & 6
OWN 6
+27
99.9%
Malik Sherrod run for 27 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+24
99.9%
Malik Sherrod run for 24 yds to the CPoly 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
99.9%
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the CPoly 41Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+2
99.9%
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the CPoly 39Similar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+1
100.0%
Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd to the CPoly 38Similar
Q4 1:10
4TH & 5
OPP 38
0
99.9%
Carson King punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 20END OF GAME
2 plays · 6 yds · 1:100% → 0%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.9%
Adam Garwood run for 3 yds to the CPoly 23Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
100.0%
Adam Garwood run for 3 yds to the CPoly 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:53
Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 19 yds for a TD, (Abraham Montano KICK)
+1.8
TD · Q2 11:54
Jaden Jones pass complete to Bryson Allen for 9 yds for a TD, (Jaden Ohlsen KICK)
-0.9
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:44
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 13 yds to the FrsSt 21 for a 1ST down
+0.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com