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JXST

Jacksonville State 17 at Tulsa 54

TLSA
2022 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2022 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadJXST aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreJXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDSAFETYFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Lachlan Wilson punt for 45 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 158Home team on offense+32.2Pregame prior+9.0Score differential+27.4Blowout margin+14.4Garbage-time factor+11.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+10.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:27: S. Anderson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Z. Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +1.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. SAFETY · Q1 3:17: run for 7 yds for a SAFETY — TLSA win probability +1.0 pts (now 85%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 11:08: S. Anderson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Z. Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +3.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 8:27: Davis Brin pass complete to Jordan Ford for 7 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +3.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 5:04: D. Brin pass,to J. Santana for 31 yds for a TD, (Z. Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +2.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8JXST made the numbers' call on 8 of 14
  1. Q1 8:27JXST 4th & 2 at JXST 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:45JXST 4th & 2 at JXST 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:45TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 47, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:16TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 47, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:19TLSA 4th & 5 at JXST 26, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    80.6%−2.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00JXST 4th & 5 at TLSA 41, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    17.8%−0.3
    32% to make
    Punt
    17.9%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:13JXST 4th & 5 at TLSA 41, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    17.8%−0.3
    32% to make
    Punt
    17.9%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:15JXST 4th & 2 at JXST 33, down 19
    Close callPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:27JXST 4th & 2 at JXST 43, down 26
    Close callPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:26JXST 4th & 2 at JXST 43, down 26
    Close callPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:05JXST 4th & 6 at TLSA 28, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    2.7%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:43TLSA 4th & 4 at JXST 43, up 30
    Close callPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.0%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:15TLSA 4th & 4 at JXST 43, up 30
    Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:15JXST 4th & 1 at JXST 13, down 30
    Close callPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:47JXST 4th & 1 at JXST 13, down 30
    Close callPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:05JXST 4th & 6 at JXST 29, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:19JXST 4th & 6 at JXST 29, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 15:00TLSA 4th & 8 at JXST 46, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  19. Q4 14:24TLSA 4th & 8 at JXST 46, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  20. Q4 12:56JXST 4th & 9 at JXST 18, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  21. Q4 9:27JXST 4th & 1 at TLSA 21, down 44
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.3
    average punt
  22. Q4 1:40TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 41, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6JXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 8:27TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:08TLSA Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    88.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:27TLSA Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:04TLSA Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:05TLSA Touchdown, up 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:27TLSA Touchdown, up 43 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:29JXST Touchdown, down 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:3383% → 83%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
82.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 4 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
82.5%
Steven Anderson run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
82.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to Malachai Jones for 3 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
82.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 5 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+6
82.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to Malachai Jones for 6 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-4
82.5%
Davis Brin sacked by Jaylen Swain for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 42
+4
82.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to Ethan Hall for 4 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+20
82.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 20 yds to the JaxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
82.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to Malachai Jones for 4 yds to the JaxSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 30
-9
82.5%
Davis Brin sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the JaxSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 39
+19
82.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 19 yds to the JaxSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
82.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 5 yds to the JaxSt 15Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+6
82.5%
Steven Anderson run for 6 yds to the JaxSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
81.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Brin,Davis pass intercepted by Jemison,Jamari at JSU00, Touchback PENALTY JSU Holding (Jemison,Jamari) 5 yards from JSU09 to JSU04. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
82.7%
S. Anderson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Z. Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:4218% → 18%
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
82.2%
Aaron McLaughlin run for 2 yds to the JaxSt 27Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
82.1%
Matt LaRoche run for 3 yds to the JaxSt 30Similar
Q1 8:27
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
82.2%
Aaron McLaughlin pass complete to Ahmad Edwards for 3 yds to the JaxSt 33Similar
Q1 8:27
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
82.2%
Jack Dawson punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 18Similar
Q1 6:45
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
82.1%
Jack Dawson punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 1:2982% → 85%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
82.2%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+25
82.1%
Jordan Ford run for 25 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
82.5%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
82.4%
Jordan Ford run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
84.6%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Isaiah EppsSimilar
Q1 6:45
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
84.4%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 50 ydsSimilar
Q1 5:16
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
84.7%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 4SF
7 plays · -3 yds · 1:5916% → 15%
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+7
83.8%
Matt LaRoche run for 7 yds to the JaxSt 10Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 3
OWN 10
+4
83.8%
Matt LaRoche run for 4 yds to the JaxSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
83.7%
Aaron McLaughlin pass incomplete to Sterling GalbanSimilar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+4
83.8%
Aaron McLaughlin run for 4 yds to the JaxSt 18Similar
Q1 5:16
3RD & 6
OWN 18
-6
83.8%
Aaron McLaughlin sacked by Joseph Anderson for a loss of 6 yards to the JaxSt 12Similar
Q1 5:16
4TH & 12
OWN 12
-5
83.9%
PENALTY JSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from JSU12 to JSU07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:17
4TH & 17
OWN 7
+7
84.9%
run for 7 yds for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5FG
8 plays · 49 yds · 1:5885% → 85%
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
85.1%
PENALTY JSU UNR: Unnecessary Roughness 15 yards from TLS25 to TLS40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
85.4%
Jordan Ford run for no gain to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+29
85.3%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 29 yds to the JaxSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
85.6%
Davis Brin pass complete to Malachai Jones for 7 yds to the JaxSt 24Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 3
OPP 24
0
85.6%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Isaiah EppsSimilar
Q1 3:17
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+2
85.4%
Davis Brin pass complete to Jordan Ford for 2 yds to the JaxSt 26Similar
Q1 1:19
4TH & 5
OPP 26
+44
85.3%
Zack Long 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 6INT
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:0616% → 16%
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
84.3%
Aaron McLaughlin pass complete to Sterling Galban for 29 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-9
83.7%
Aaron McLaughlin sacked by Grant Sawyer for a loss of 9 yards to the JaxSt 45Similar
Q1 1:19
2ND & 19
OWN 45
+1
84.2%
Anwar Lewis run for 1 yd to the JaxSt 44Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 19
OWN 45
+1
84.4%
Anwar Lewis run for 1 yd to the JaxSt 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 44
+15
84.5%
Aaron McLaughlin pass complete to Michael Pettway for 15 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
84.2%
Aaron McLaughlin pass interceptedSimilar
Q2 14:13
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
84.2%
Aaron McLaughlin pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7TD
10 plays · 62 yds · 3:0586% → 90%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
86.4%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 19 yds to the JaxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
86.6%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Ethan HallSimilar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+1
86.6%
Steven Anderson run for 1 yd to the JaxSt 42Similar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+13
86.3%
Davis Brin pass complete to Malachai Jones for 13 yds to the JaxSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
86.6%
Davis Brin pass complete to Malachai Jones for 7 yds to the JaxSt 22Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+8
86.6%
Steven Anderson run for 8 yds to the JaxSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
86.6%
PENALTY TLS False Start (Wade,Dillon) 5 yards from JSU14 to JSU19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 15
OPP 19
-5
86.6%
PENALTY TLS False Start (Simpson,Darrell) 5 yards from JSU19 to JSU24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 20
OPP 24
+20
86.6%
Davis Brin pass complete to Ethan Hall for 20 yds to the JaxSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
89.9%
S. Anderson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Z. Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5311% → 11%
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
88.7%
Anwar Lewis run for 1 yd to the JaxSt 26Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
88.7%
Zion Webb run for 7 yds to the JaxSt 33Similar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
88.4%
Zion Webb pass incomplete to P.J. WellsSimilar
Q2 10:15
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
88.9%
Jack Dawson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 1:4890% → 94%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
89.8%
PENALTY TLS False Start (Li'o Marks,Tautai) 5 yards from TLS28 to TLS23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 15
OWN 23
+59
89.7%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 59 yds to the JaxSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+12
90.2%
Jordan Ford run for 12 yds to the JaxSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
90.2%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q2 10:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
90.2%
Jordan Ford run for 1 yd to the JaxSt 7Similar
Q2 8:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
94.1%
Davis Brin pass complete to Jordan Ford for 7 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:015% → 5%
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
94.6%
Matt LaRoche run for 5 yds to the JaxSt 40Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+3
94.4%
Matt LaRoche run for 3 yds to the JaxSt 43Similar
Q2 8:27
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
94.4%
Zion Webb pass incomplete to Ahmad EdwardsSimilar
Q2 8:27
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
94.5%
Jack Dawson punt for 21 ydsSimilar
Q2 7:26
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
94.7%
Jack Dawson punt for 21 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 2:2295% → 98%
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
94.8%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Isaiah EppsSimilar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
94.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to Malachai Jones for 4 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q2 7:26
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+19
94.7%
Davis Brin pass complete to Malachai Jones for 19 yds to the JaxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
95.0%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 11 yds to the JaxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
95.0%
Bill Jackson run for 1 yd to the JaxSt 31Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+31
97.5%
D. Brin pass,to J. Santana for 31 yds for a TD, (Z. Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 12FG
13 plays · 47 yds · 2:592% → 3%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
97.8%
Matt LaRoche run for 11 yds to the JaxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
97.7%
Matt LaRoche run for 2 yds to the JaxSt 38Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
97.7%
Zion Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+12
97.7%
Zion Webb pass complete to Michael Pettway for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
50
-5
97.6%
PENALTY JSU False Start 5 yards from JSU50 to JSU45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+12
97.8%
Matt LaRoche run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+2
97.3%
Zion Webb run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+9
97.3%
Anwar Lewis run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
97.4%
Zion Webb pass complete to Michael Pettway for 6 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 16
OPP 38
+10
97.6%
Zion Webb run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 6
OPP 28
0
97.3%
Zion Webb pass incomplete to Michael PettwaySimilar
Q2 2:05
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+46
97.1%
Alen Karajic 46 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 0:3798% → 98%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
98.0%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 15 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+47
98.0%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 47 yds to the JaxSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
98.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 17 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 14FUMBLE
5 plays · 38 yds · 0:231% → 2%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
98.6%
Anwar Lewis run for 12 yds to the JaxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
98.5%
Zion Webb pass incomplete to Anwar LewisSimilar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+26
98.5%
Zion Webb pass complete to Michael Pettway for 26 yds Michael Pettway fumbled, recovered by Tulsa Justin WrightSimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+26
98.0%
Zion Webb pass complete to Michael Pettway for 26 yds Michael Pettway fumbled, recovered by Tulsa Justin WrightSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15END OF HALF
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:0098% → 98%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
97.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Jackson,Bill rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TLS40 (Fuqua,Kolbi; Perry,Fred) PENALTY TLS Holding 10 yards from TLS37 to TLS27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+3
97.7%
Bill Jackson run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 17
OWN 30
+3
97.7%
Bill Jackson run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 17
OWN 30
+3
98.3%
Bill Jackson run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 16TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:172% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.4%
Anwar Lewis run for 7 yds to the JaxSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+12
98.1%
Anwar Lewis run for 12 yds to the JaxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
98.2%
Zion Webb run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
98.2%
Anwar Lewis run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+15
98.2%
TULSA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Anthony Goodlow) to the Tulsa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
98.0%
Matt LaRoche run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+1
97.8%
Matt LaRoche run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+4
97.9%
Matt LaRoche run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
97.9%
Matt LaRoche run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+9
97.9%
Zion Webb run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
97.8%
Zion Webb run for no gain to the Tulsa 3Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.8%
Z. Webb run for 3 yds for a TD, (A. Karajic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:2899% → 100%
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.2%
Steven Anderson run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+20
99.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Malachai Jones for 5 yds to the JaxSt 36 for a 1ST down JACKSONVILLE ST Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Amon Scarbrough) to the JaxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
99.2%
Davis Brin run for 3 yds to the JaxSt 46Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+3
99.2%
Jordan Ford run for 3 yds to the JaxSt 43Similar
Q3 10:43
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
99.2%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Jordan FordSimilar
Q3 10:43
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
99.2%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 39 ydsSimilar
Q3 8:15
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
99.5%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:281% → 1%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
99.4%
Matt LaRoche run for 4 yds to the JaxSt 8Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 6
OWN 8
0
99.4%
Matt LaRoche run for no gain to the JaxSt 8Similar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 6
OWN 8
+5
99.5%
Zion Webb run for 5 yds to the JaxSt 13Similar
Q3 8:15
4TH & 1
OWN 13
0
99.4%
Jack Dawson punt for 34 ydsSimilar
Q3 6:47
4TH & 1
OWN 13
0
99.5%
Jack Dawson punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19TD
2 plays · 47 yds · 0:42100% → 100%
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
99.6%
Jordan Ford run for 1 yd to the JaxSt 46Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+46
99.6%
D. Brin pass,to K. Stokes for 46 yds for a TD, (Z. Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:460% → 0%
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.6%
Matt LaRoche run for 1 yd to the JaxSt 26Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
99.7%
Aaron McLaughlin sacked by Justin Wright for a loss of 1 yard to the JaxSt 25Similar
Q3 6:05
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.7%
Aaron McLaughlin run for 4 yds to the JaxSt 29Similar
Q3 6:05
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+8
99.6%
Jack Dawson punt for 51 yds , Keylon Stokes returns for 8 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q3 4:19
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+8
99.7%
Jack Dawson punt for 51 yds , Keylon Stokes returns for 8 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21PUNT
13 plays · 26 yds · 4:55100% → 100%
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
99.7%
Tahj Gary run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+2
99.7%
Tahj Gary run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q3 4:19
3RD & 3
OWN 35
-10
99.7%
TULSA Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q3 4:19
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+4
99.7%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Colby Powers for 4 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
99.7%
Tahj Gary run for 12 yds to the JaxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
99.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Jackson,Bill rush left for 4 yards gain to the JSU44 (Perry,Fred) PENALTY TLS Holding (Powers,Colby) 10 yards from JSU48 to TLS42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:19
1ST & 20
OWN 42
0
99.7%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Carl ChesterSimilar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 20
OWN 42
+6
99.7%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Colby Powers for 6 yds to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q3 4:19
3RD & 14
OWN 48
-5
99.7%
PENALTY TLS False Start (Young Bear,Walter) 5 yards from TLS48 to TLS43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 14
OWN 48
-5
99.8%
PENALTY TLS False Start (Young Bear,Walter) 5 yards from TLS48 to TLS43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 43
+11
99.8%
Braylon Braxton run for 11 yds to the JaxSt 46Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
99.8%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 45 ydsSimilar
Q4 14:24
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
99.8%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:280% → 0%
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
99.8%
Zion Webb pass incomplete to Sterling GalbanSimilar
Q4 14:24
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+1
99.9%
Zion Webb run for 1 yd to the JaxSt 2Similar
Q4 14:24
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+15
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun McLaughlin,Aaron pass incomplete short right to Ezzard,Marquez PENALTY TLS Roughing The Passer (Goodlow,Anthony) 15 yards from JSU02 to JSU17, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
99.8%
Anwar Lewis run for 4 yds to the JaxSt 21Similar
Q4 14:24
2ND & 6
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Aaron McLaughlin pass incomplete to Ahmad EdwardsSimilar
Q4 14:24
3RD & 6
OWN 21
-3
99.9%
Aaron McLaughlin run for 2 yds to the JaxSt 23 JACKSONVILLE ST Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Aaron McLaughlin) to the JaxSt 18Similar
Q4 12:56
4TH & 9
OWN 18
0
99.9%
Jack Dawson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Malachai Jones at the Tulsa 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 3:29100% → 100%
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+32
99.8%
Bill Jackson run for 32 yds to the JaxSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
99.8%
Bill Jackson run for 5 yds to the JaxSt 27Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+5
99.8%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Marquis Shoulders for 5 yds to the JaxSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
99.8%
Bill Jackson run for 9 yds to the JaxSt 13Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+7
99.8%
Braylon Braxton run for 7 yds to the JaxSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
99.8%
PENALTY TLS Delay Of Game 5 yards from JSU06 to JSU11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
99.9%
B. Braxton pass,to M. Shoulders for 11 yds for a TD, (Z. Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 24TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 3:580% → 0%
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.9%
Te'Sean Smoot run for 2 yds to the JaxSt 37Similar
Q4 9:27
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+9
99.9%
Pat Jackson run for 9 yds to the JaxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
99.9%
Ron Wiggins run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
99.9%
Te'Sean Smoot sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q4 9:27
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+11
99.9%
Pat Jackson run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q4 9:27
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+5
99.9%
Te'Sean Smoot run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
99.9%
Te'Sean Smoot pass incomplete to Terrell CarmichealSimilar
Q4 9:27
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+8
99.9%
Te'Sean Smoot pass complete to Ron Wiggins for 8 yds to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q4 9:27
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+1
99.9%
Te'Sean Smoot run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q4 9:27
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+5
99.9%
Ron Wiggins run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
99.9%
T. Smoot run for 16 yds for a TD,TULSA penalty, Illegal Substitution declined, (A. Karajic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 3:49100% → 100%
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.9%
Bill Jackson run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
99.9%
Roman Fuller pass complete to Marquis Shoulders for 7 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
99.9%
Roman Fuller run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+3
99.9%
Bill Jackson run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q4 5:29
3RD & 12
OWN 37
+4
99.9%
Bill Jackson run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q4 1:40
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 44 yds , Michael Pettway returns for no gain to the JaxSt 2 Michael Pettway fumbled, recovered by Tulsa Caleb MatthewsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:40100% → 100%
Q4 1:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
100.0%
run for a loss of 3 yards to the JaxSt 5Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
100.0%
run for a loss of 4 yards to the JaxSt 9Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
100.0%
run for a loss of 3 yards to the JaxSt 12Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
100.0%
run for a loss of 3 yards to the JaxSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:27
Davis Brin pass complete to Jordan Ford for 7 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)
+3.9
TD · Q2 11:08
S. Anderson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Z. Long KICK)
+3.3
TD · Q2 5:04
D. Brin pass,to J. Santana for 31 yds for a TD, (Z. Long KICK)
+2.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com