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PITT

Pittsburgh 42 at Miami 16

MIA
2022 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2022 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:38 · Lou Hedley punt for 47 yds , Vincent Davis returns for 1 yd to the Pitt 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 31Home team on offense−2.8Score differential−0.8Garbage-time factor−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Pregame prior−1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:13: Israel Abanikanda run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ben Sauls KICK) — PITT win probability +1.5 pts (now 54%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:50: Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jared Wayne for 66 yds for a TD, (Ben Sauls KICK) — PITT win probability +5.9 pts (now 62%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 11:46: Israel Abanikanda run for 11 yds for a TD, (Ben Sauls KICK) — PITT win probability +11.5 pts (now 77%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:31: Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jared Wayne for 26 yds for a TD, (Ben Sauls KICK) — PITT win probability +8.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 6:22: Andres Borregales 25 yd FG GOOD — PITT win probability +1.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 5 of 7PITT made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 4:49PITT 4th & 1 at MIA 1, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    59.4%−0.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    57.2%−3.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:38MIA 4th & 14 at MIA 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−1.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:19MIA 4th & 26 at MIA 9, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−1.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:48PITT 4th & 2 at MIA 42, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    66.6%−2.0
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:18MIA 4th & 6 at MIA 29, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:26PITT 4th & 13 at PITT 33, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%−1.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:20MIA 4th & 17 at MIA 32, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−1.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:58MIA 4th & 9 at PITT 18, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.5%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    19.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    17.2%−2.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:19PITT 4th & 8 at PITT 38, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:22MIA 4th & 7 at PITT 7, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:05MIA 4th & 13 at PITT 13, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%
    85% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2PITT made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 10:13PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:50PITT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:46PITT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:31PITT Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:36PITT Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:52MIA Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    1.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.1%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:16PITT Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:22MIA Touchdown, down 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1INT
9 plays · 78 yds · 2:2448% → 49%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+25
47.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Mallory for 25 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
47.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
47.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Brashard Smith for 9 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q1 14:30
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-5
47.7%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Jakai Clark) to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q1 14:30
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+10
47.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 10 yds Jaylan Knighton fumbled, recovered by MiaFl , return to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
50
0
47.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 10
50
+39
47.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Mallory for 39 yds to the Pitt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
47.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
48.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2TD
4 plays · 30 yds · 2:0652% → 54%
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+19
47.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jared Wayne for 19 yds to the MiaFl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
47.7%
Israel Abanikanda run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 10Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+8
47.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 8 yds to the MiaFl 2Similar
Q1 10:13
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
46.3%
Israel Abanikanda run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 1:3247% → 46%
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
46.8%
Jacurri Brown run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
46.9%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Brashard Smith for no gain to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
46.1%
Jacurri Brown pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4DOWNS
8 plays · 60 yds · 3:5254% → 55%
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
45.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jared Wayne for 17 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
45.5%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Te'Cory Couch) to the MiaFl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
45.4%
Israel Abanikanda run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+13
44.9%
Israel Abanikanda run for 13 yds to the MiaFl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
44.9%
Israel Abanikanda run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
44.9%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
45.0%
Israel Abanikanda run for no gain to the MiaFl 1 Israel Abanikanda fumbled, recovered by Pitt Israel AbanikandaSimilar
Q1 4:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
44.9%
Israel Abanikanda run for no gain to the MiaFl 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 3:1146% → 44%
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
45.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 3Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+22
45.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 22 yds to the MiaFl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
45.6%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 11 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
45.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
45.7%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 11
OWN 35
-3
45.2%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q1 1:38
4TH & 14
OWN 32
+1
43.8%
Lou Hedley punt for 47 yds , Vincent Davis returns for 1 yd to the Pitt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6TD
2 plays · 78 yds · 0:4856% → 62%
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
44.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Rodney Hammond Jr. for 12 yds to the Pitt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+66
38.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jared Wayne for 66 yds for a TD, (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -16 yds · 1:3139% → 38%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
39.2%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
39.1%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Colbie Young for no gain to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-3
38.6%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 17Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 17
-8
38.3%
Jake Garcia sacked by SirVocea Dennis for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaFl 9Similar
Q2 14:19
4TH & 26
OWN 9
0
38.1%
Lou Hedley punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3163% → 64%
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
50
+7
36.6%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+1
36.6%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q2 14:19
3RD & 2
OPP 42
0
36.8%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:48
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
36.1%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9FUMBLE
1 play · 9 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
36.9%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Will Mallory for 9 yds Will Mallory fumbled, recovered by Pitt Erick Hallett IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10TD
2 plays · 19 yds · 0:4565% → 77%
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
35.0%
Israel Abanikanda run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 11Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+11
23.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 11 yds for a TD, (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2827% → 23%
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
27.3%
Frank Ladson Jr. run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
27.3%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Will Mallory for 2 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q2 11:46
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
27.3%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:18
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+12
25.7%
Lou Hedley punt for 47 yds , M.J. Devonshire returns for 12 yds to the Pitt 36Similar
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
22.5%
PENALTY MIA Personal Foul on WILLIAMS, James PIT Personal Foul on DAVIS, Vincent , Offsetting penalties. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:5278% → 77%
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
22.5%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
22.5%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:18
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-3
23.0%
run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 33 fumbled, recovered by PittSimilar
Q2 9:26
4TH & 13
OWN 33
0
22.7%
Caleb Junko punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:0625% → 24%
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
25.3%
Jake Garcia run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+3
26.0%
Jaylan Knighton run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-7
26.2%
Jake Garcia sacked by Deandre Jules for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 17
OWN 32
0
24.0%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 17
OWN 32
0
23.8%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:20
4TH & 17
OWN 32
+3
23.6%
Lou Hedley punt for 52 yds , Tylar Wiltz returns for 3 yds to the Pitt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14INT
4 plays · 25 yds · 1:4179% → 82%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
20.6%
C'Bo Flemister run for 11 yds to the Pitt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
20.7%
C'Bo Flemister run for 13 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
20.2%
C'Bo Flemister run for 1 yd to the Pitt 44Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
18.5%
Kedon Slovis pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15DOWNS
8 plays · 24 yds · 1:4125% → 23%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
24.7%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the Pitt 34Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+15
24.5%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Pitt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
24.8%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the Pitt 24Similar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 15
OPP 24
0
24.6%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 15
OPP 24
+6
23.6%
Jaylan Knighton run for 6 yds to the Pitt 18Similar
Q2 4:08
3RD & 9
OPP 18
0
23.2%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:58
4TH & 9
OPP 18
+7
22.6%
Andres Borregales run for 7 yds to the Pitt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16TD
8 plays · 89 yds · 3:2783% → 93%
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+13
16.8%
Israel Abanikanda run for 13 yds to the Pitt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+37
16.4%
run for 37 yds to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-15
15.7%
SLOVIS, Kedon pass to the left complete for 6 yards to ABANIKANDA, Israel caught at the MIA46 and advanced to the MIA33 (IVEY, DJ). PENALTY PIT Personal Foul on BARTHOLOMEW, Gavin enforced 15 yards from the MIA39 to the PIT46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:58
1ST & 25
OWN 46
+15
15.9%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Targeting on STEVENSON, Tyrique enforced (Tyrique Stevenson) to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
15.7%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+9
15.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jared Wayne for 9 yds to the MiaFl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
15.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+26
6.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jared Wayne for 26 yds for a TD, (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
5.7%
Jaylan Knighton run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 3:4193% → 95%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
7.4%
Israel Abanikanda run for 7 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
6.9%
Israel Abanikanda run for 2 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
7.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Israel Abanikanda for 2 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
7.3%
run for a loss of 4 yards to the Pitt 32 fumbled, recovered by PittSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 32
+6
7.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Israel Abanikanda for 6 yds to the Pitt 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
7.5%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:19
4TH & 8
OWN 38
+12
5.1%
Caleb Junko punt for 59 yds , Jacolby George returns for 12 yds to the MiaFl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19FG
10 plays · 78 yds · 4:575% → 3%
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
4.5%
Jaylan Knighton run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+12
4.2%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Will Mallory for 12 yds to the MiaFl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
4.4%
Jaylan Knighton run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+4
4.2%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 4 yds to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+5
3.8%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Will Mallory for 5 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-6
4.1%
Jacurri Brown sacked by Tylar Wiltz for a loss of 6 yards to the Pitt 7Similar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+56
3.9%
Jaylan Knighton run for 56 yds to the Pitt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
4.3%
Jaylan Knighton run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 5Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
4.2%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Kahlil Brantley for 4 yds to the Pitt 1Similar
Q3 6:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
2.5%
Andres Borregales 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 5:3998% → 99%
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
2.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 7 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+5
2.4%
Israel Abanikanda run for 5 yds to the Pitt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
2.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 17 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
1.9%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+15
1.9%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 15 yds to the MiaFl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
1.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jared Wayne for 7 yds to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+4
1.4%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
1.3%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+4
1.4%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 7Similar
Q3 0:36
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+7
0.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jared Wayne for 7 yds for a TD, (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21TD
11 plays · 63 yds · 3:371% → 1%
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
0.8%
PENALTY PIT Unsportsmanlike Conduct on TALLANDIER II, Judson MIA Unsportsmanlike Conduct on SMITH, Brashard MIA Unsportsmanlike Conduct on BRANTLEY, Kahlil , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
0.7%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Jacolby George for 14 yds to the Pitt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
0.8%
Jake Garcia sacked by Dayon Hayes for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 48
-8
0.7%
Jake Garcia sacked by Dayon Hayes for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q4 13:48
3RD & 21
OWN 40
+17
0.5%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 17 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q4 13:06
4TH & 4
OPP 43
+7
0.5%
GARCIA, Jake pass up the middle incomplete intended for MALLORY, Will thrown to the PIT35, clock 13:06. PENALTY PIT Pass Interference on WILTZ, Tylar enforced at the spot of the foul for 7 yards to the PIT36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
0.5%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 5 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+12
0.5%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Jacolby George for 12 yds to the Pitt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+15
0.5%
GARCIA, Jake pass to the right incomplete intended for REDDING III, Michael thrown to the PIT0. PENALTY PIT Pass Interference on WOODS, A.J. enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the PIT4 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.6%
Will Mallory 4 Yd pass from Jake Garcia (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 2:3599% → 100%
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+19
0.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jared Wayne for 19 yds to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
0.7%
C'Bo Flemister run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 2
OPP 44
0
0.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:13
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+18
0.6%
C'Bo Flemister run for 18 yds to the MiaFl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
0.6%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+26
0.3%
C'Bo Flemister run for 26 yds for a TD, (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:540% → 0%
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+58
0.2%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Romello Brinson for 58 yds to the Pitt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
0.3%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Will Mallory for 10 yds to the Pitt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
0.3%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 3 yds to the Pitt 4Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.3%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 4 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24FUMBLE
6 plays · 45 yds · 3:56100% → 100%
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.4%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 6 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+10
0.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jared Wayne for 10 yds to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
0.3%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 8 yds to the Pitt 49Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+15
0.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jared Wayne for 15 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
0.3%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+4
0.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jared Wayne for 4 yds Jared Wayne fumbled, recovered by MiaFl James WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 25DOWNS
14 plays · 45 yds · 2:160% → 0%
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
0.1%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+13
0.1%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Jacolby George for 13 yds to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
0.1%
Jake Garcia run for 14 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
0.1%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+4
0.1%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 4 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+34
0.1%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Michael Redding III for 34 yds to the Pitt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
0.2%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Will Mallory for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 8Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
0.1%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (DJ Scaife Jr.) to the Pitt 13Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
0
0.1%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
0.1%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
-12
0.0%
Jake Garcia sacked by Dayon Hayes for a loss of 12 yards to the Pitt 25Similar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.1%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct ( Yards) to the Pitt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 1:05100% → 100%
Q4 1:05
1ST & 23
OWN 12
+12
0.1%
C'Bo Flemister run for 12 yds to the Pitt 24Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
0.1%
Kneel down by PIT at PIT23 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:46
Israel Abanikanda run for 11 yds for a TD, (Ben Sauls KICK)
-11.5
TD · Q2 0:31
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jared Wayne for 26 yds for a TD, (Ben Sauls KICK)
-8.6
TD · Q1 0:50
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jared Wayne for 66 yds for a TD, (Ben Sauls KICK)
-5.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com