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WAKE

Wake Forest 31 at Duke 34

DUKE
2022 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2022 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadWAKE aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreWAKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:25 · Matthew Dennis punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 105Pregame prior−4.6Home team on offense+1.5Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2Score differential+0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:04: Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 46 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +7.4 pts (now 56%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:24: Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 30 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +18.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:57: Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 17 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK) — WAKE win probability +14.4 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 12:31: Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 6 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK) — WAKE win probability +25.7 pts (now 72%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:04: Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 20 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +49.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 6WAKE made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 7:01DUKE 4th & 5 at WAKE 25, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.1%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    45.0%−1.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:06WAKE 4th & 19 at DUKE 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−1.0
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    49.0%−0.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 4:37DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−1.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:50WAKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.7%
    84% to make
    Punt
    40.4%−6.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:14DUKE 4th & 7 at WAKE 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−1.7
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    47.6%−4.8
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:53WAKE 4th & 4 at WAKE 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−1.0
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:52DUKE 4th & 14 at DUKE 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%−2.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:25WAKE 4th & 5 at WAKE 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:32DUKE 4th & 9 at DUKE 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:05DUKE 4th & 14 at WAKE 38, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.4 ptsWent for it · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.7%−2.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    30.1%
    38% to make
    Punt
    27.5%−2.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:57WAKE 4th & 9 at WAKE 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%−3.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:22WAKE 4th & 10 at WAKE 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.8%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.6%−3.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:22WAKE 4th & 10 at WAKE 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.8%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.6%−3.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4WAKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 2:56WAKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:16DUKE Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:04DUKE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:02WAKE Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:24DUKE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:57WAKE Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:31WAKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:04DUKE Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.9%−2.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1FG
13 plays · 43 yds · 7:5339% → 43%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
39.2%
Jaylen Coleman run for 9 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+7
39.2%
Jaylen Coleman run for 7 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
39.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 7 yds to the WFrst 45Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+4
39.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 4 yds to the WFrst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
39.2%
Jaylen Coleman run for 3 yds to the WFrst 38Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 7
OPP 38
-10
39.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Leonard,Riley pass complete deep right to Calhoun,Jalon for 15 yards to the Wake23 (Garnes,Chelen), out of bounds PENALTY Duke Holding (Lytle,Chance) 10 yards from Wake38 to Wake48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 17
OPP 48
+9
39.2%
Riley Leonard run for 9 yds to the WFrst 39Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+9
39.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 9 yds to the WFrst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
39.2%
Jordan Waters run for no gain to the WFrst 30Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-7
39.2%
Riley Leonard sacked by Jasheen Davis for a loss of 7 yards to the WFrst 37Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 17
OPP 37
+12
39.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 12 yds to the WFrst 25Similar
Q1 7:01
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+42
43.0%
Todd Pelino 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 2TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:0557% → 61%
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
43.0%
Justice Ellison run for 4 yds to the WFrst 29Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
42.8%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
43.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 7 yds to the WFrst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
42.7%
Sam Hartman sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 33Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+6
43.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 6 yds to the WFrst 39Similar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+30
42.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Blake Whiteheart for 30 yds to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
41.8%
Justice Ellison run for 7 yds to the Duke 24Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+10
41.7%
Sam Hartman run for 10 yds to the Duke 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
41.7%
Justice Ellison run for 1 yd to the Duke 13Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+7
41.7%
Justice Ellison run for 7 yds to the Duke 6Similar
Q1 2:56
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+6
39.5%
Justice Ellison run for 6 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 3:3340% → 47%
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+26
40.3%
Dennis,Matthew kickoff 62 yards to the Duke03 Stinson,Jaylen return 26 yards to the Duke29 (Williams,AJ) PENALTY Duke Holding offsetting Wake Face Mask offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
41.5%
Jaquez Moore run for 14 yds to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
42.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Leonard,Riley pass complete short left to Moore,Jordan for 8 yards to the Wake40 (Smenda, Jr.,Ryan), out of bounds PENALTY Duke Holding (Finney,Cole) 10 yards from Wake48 to Duke42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 20
OWN 42
+15
41.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 15 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+10
42.5%
Jaquez Moore run for 10 yds to the WFrst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
43.5%
Jordan Waters run for no gain to the WFrst 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
43.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 3 yds to the WFrst 30Similar
Q2 14:16
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+30
46.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 30 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 2:1054% → 53%
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
45.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 15 yds to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
44.5%
Christian Turner run for 9 yds to the WFrst 49Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+5
43.8%
Christian Turner run for 5 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
43.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 13 yds to the Duke 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
43.3%
Christian Turner run for 1 yd to the Duke 34Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 11
OPP 34
0
43.4%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Sam Hartman) to the Duke 42Similar
Q2 14:16
3RD & 19
OPP 42
0
45.4%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q2 12:06
4TH & 19
OPP 42
0
47.3%
Matthew Dennis punt for 22 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 3:0246% → 56%
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
46.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 6 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+4
46.4%
Jaylen Coleman run for 4 yds to the Duke 22Similar
Q2 12:06
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+31
45.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 31 yds to the WFrst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
48.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaylen Coleman for 1 yd to the WFrst 46Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+46
55.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 46 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:0245% → 54%
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
55.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 6 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
54.6%
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q2 9:04
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
54.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 6 yds to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+31
54.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 31 yds to the Duke 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
52.1%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+16
52.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 16 yds to the Duke 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
52.1%
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the Duke 10Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+2
52.1%
Sam Hartman run for 2 yds to the Duke 8Similar
Q2 6:02
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+8
46.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 8 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:1950% → 49%
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
49.8%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 1 yd to the Duke 21Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+9
49.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Leonard,Riley pass incomplete short middle to Hagans,Sahmir, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Wake Pass Interference (Carson,Caelen) 9 yards from Duke21 to Duke30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
50.1%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
49.6%
Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
49.2%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jaquez MooreSimilar
Q2 4:37
4TH & 7
OWN 33
+7
48.7%
Porter Wilson punt for 54 yds , Taylor Morin returns for 7 yds to the WFrst 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8FG
8 plays · 66 yds · 2:4750% → 57%
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
50.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 20 yds to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
48.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 8 yds to the WFrst 48Similar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+4
47.0%
Sam Hartman run for 4 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+31
47.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 31 yds to the Duke 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
45.7%
Quinton Cooley run for 3 yds to the Duke 14Similar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
45.7%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Ke'Shawn WilliamsSimilar
Q2 4:37
3RD & 7
OPP 14
0
46.8%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+32
42.7%
Matthew Dennis 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9FG
13 plays · 60 yds · 1:3648% → 54%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
48.0%
Riley Leonard run for 6 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
49.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 8 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
49.5%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+13
49.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 13 yds to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+19
52.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 19 yds to the WFrst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
53.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 11 yds to the WFrst 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
53.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 3 yds to the WFrst 15Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 7
OPP 15
0
53.0%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 7
OPP 15
0
51.6%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+32
54.0%
Todd Pelino 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 10Uncategorized
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
52.6%
Kneel down by Wake Forest at Wake22 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0747% → 45%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
52.6%
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
52.2%
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
52.7%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Blake WhiteheartSimilar
Q3 13:53
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
54.9%
Matthew Dennis punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the Duke 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 2:0155% → 53%
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
55.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for no gain to the Duke 33Similar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+1
54.8%
Jaylen Coleman run for 1 yd to the Duke 34Similar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 9
OWN 34
-5
53.7%
PENALTY Duke False Start (Hagans,Sahmir) 5 yards from Duke34 to Duke29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 14
OWN 29
0
52.9%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
Q3 11:52
4TH & 14
OWN 29
0
52.7%
Porter Wilson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:2746% → 45%
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
53.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 7 yds to the WFrst 36Similar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+5
52.0%
Christian Turner run for 5 yds to the WFrst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
51.9%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
52.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 5 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
51.7%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Blake WhiteheartSimilar
Q3 10:25
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
54.9%
Matthew Dennis punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 5:0156% → 77%
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
55.8%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the Duke 25Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+10
55.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 10 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
56.2%
Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+8
57.7%
Jaquez Moore run for 8 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+24
58.5%
Jaquez Moore run for 24 yds to the WFrst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
60.2%
Riley Leonard run for 8 yds to the WFrst 38Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 18
OPP 38
+8
57.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 8 yds to the WFrst 30Similar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+30
76.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 30 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 15TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:2726% → 45%
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
74.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaeger Bull for 6 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+12
73.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaeger Bull for 12 yds to the WFrst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
73.0%
Sam Hartman run for 8 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+5
70.9%
Justice Ellison run for 5 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
71.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 12 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
70.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 15 yds to the Duke 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
69.6%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donavon GreeneSimilar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
69.9%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Taylor MorinSimilar
Q3 2:57
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+17
55.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 17 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:2160% → 60%
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
60.1%
Riley Leonard run for 1 yd to the Duke 30Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+18
59.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 18 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
63.0%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
62.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaquez Moore for 1 yd to the Duke 49Similar
Q3 2:53
3RD & 9
OWN 49
0
60.4%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q3 0:32
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
59.6%
Porter Wilson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 17TD
11 plays · 84 yds · 3:0139% → 72%
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
61.0%
Quinton Cooley run for 4 yds to the WFrst 20Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+5
61.5%
Sam Hartman run for 5 yds to the WFrst 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+2
61.2%
Quinton Cooley run for 2 yds to the WFrst 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
60.8%
Quinton Cooley run for 5 yds to the WFrst 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+14
59.3%
Sam Hartman run for 14 yds to the WFrst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
56.9%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
58.5%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+12
59.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Blake Whiteheart for 12 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+33
55.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 33 yds to the Duke 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
53.8%
Quinton Cooley run for 3 yds to the Duke 6Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
28.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 6 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18INT
17 plays · 40 yds · 7:2137% → 33%
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
37.4%
Riley Leonard run for 9 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+2
40.4%
Jaylen Coleman run for 2 yds to the Duke 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
38.2%
Jaylen Coleman run for 5 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+3
41.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 3 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+3
40.3%
Jaylen Coleman run for 3 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
41.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Coleman,Jaylen rush left for 7 yards gain to the Wake49, out of bounds at Wake49 PENALTY Duke Holding (Barton,Graham) 10 yards from Duke44 to Duke34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:26
1ST & 20
OWN 34
0
37.4%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 20
OWN 34
+22
37.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 22 yds to the WFrst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
43.0%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
42.7%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the WFrst 41Similar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+7
42.0%
Riley Leonard run for 7 yds to the WFrst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
43.9%
No Huddle Leonard,Riley rush left for 34 yards gain to the Wake00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 06:37 PENALTY Duke Holding (Barton,Graham) 10 yards from Wake34 to Wake44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:37
1ST & 20
OPP 44
+4
38.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 4 yds to the WFrst 40Similar
Q4 6:37
2ND & 16
OPP 40
+2
38.5%
Jaylen Coleman run for 2 yds to the WFrst 38Similar
Q4 6:37
3RD & 14
OPP 38
0
37.2%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
Q4 5:05
4TH & 14
OPP 38
0
32.9%
Riley Leonard pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 13 yds · 2:0875% → 82%
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
25.4%
Christian Turner run for 2 yds to the WFrst 22Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+7
25.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Blake Whiteheart for 7 yds to the WFrst 29Similar
Q4 5:05
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
25.0%
Christian Turner run for 3 yds to the WFrst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
24.4%
Christian Turner run for 1 yd to the WFrst 33Similar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+7
17.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 7 yds to the WFrst 40Similar
Q4 3:09
3RD & 2
OWN 40
-7
15.2%
Sam Hartman sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the WFrst 33Similar
Q4 2:57
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
18.1%
Matthew Dennis punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20TD
2 plays · 65 yds · 0:5335% → 85%
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
50
+30
35.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 30 yds to the WFrst 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
84.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 20 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 21INT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:4230% → 24%
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
70.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Blake Whiteheart for 11 yds to the WFrst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
68.2%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
68.9%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Blake WhiteheartSimilar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
71.8%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donavon GreeneSimilar
Q4 1:22
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
75.7%
Sam Hartman pass interceptedSimilar
Q4 1:22
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
75.7%
Sam Hartman pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22END OF GAME
8 plays · 33 yds · 1:2286% → 95%
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
85.6%
Jaylen Coleman run for 3 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+26
88.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 26 yds to the WFrst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
90.6%
Jaylen Coleman run for 4 yds to the WFrst 45Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+2
94.3%
Jaylen Coleman run for 2 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+2
95.4%
run for 2 yds to the WFrst 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:04
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 20 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK)
+49.7
TD · Q4 12:31
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 6 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)
-25.7
TD · Q3 5:24
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 30 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK)
+18.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com