2022 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2022 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadSYR aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreSYR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:14 · Maximilian Von Marburg punt for 17 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 6:53: LeQuint Allen pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 33 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK) — SYR win probability +10.2 pts (now 48%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:07: Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 29 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK) — WAKE win probability +12.1 pts (now 67%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:12: Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 10 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK) — WAKE win probability +7.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:20: Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 17 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK) — WAKE win probability +11.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:14: Quinton Cooley run for 4 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK) — WAKE win probability +8.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 7SYR made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 6:03WAKE 4th & 7 at SYR 15, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.2% before the snapGo for it69.9%−0.234% to convertField goalTheir call70.1%83% to makePunt68.5%−1.5average punt
- Q1 3:23SYR 4th & 10 at WAKE 45, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snapGo for it29.4%−0.330% to convertField goal29.1%−0.625% to makePuntTheir call29.7%average punt
- Q1 1:05WAKE 4th & 4 at WAKE 36, down 4Close callPunted · 68.9% before the snapGo for it69.0%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 0:14SYR 4th & 9 at SYR 18, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snapGo for it29.6%−0.630% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.2%average punt
- Q2 8:40WAKE 4th & 1 at SYR 5, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call66.7%67% to convertField goal64.7%−2.092% to makePunt59.4%−7.3average punt
- Q2 2:25SYR 4th & 29 at WAKE 34, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.8% before the snapGo for it36.1%−2.07% to convertField goalTheir call38.0%47% to makePunt36.6%−1.4average punt
- Q3 12:30WAKE 4th & 14 at SYR 44, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.6% before the snapGo for it69.0%−1.719% to convertField goal69.2%−1.527% to makePuntTheir call70.7%average punt
- Q3 9:03SYR 4th & 5 at SYR 32, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snapGo for it28.8%−1.541% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.3%average punt
- Q3 2:52SYR 4th & 20 at SYR 26, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.4% before the snapGo for it12.3%−3.39% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.6%average punt
- Q3 2:52WAKE 4th & 1 at SYR 33, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call84.8%71% to convertField goal82.1%−2.849% to makePunt81.1%−3.7average punt
- Q4 6:19WAKE 4th & 3 at SYR 45, up 17Close callPunted · 97.3% before the snapGo for it97.4%52% to convertField goal96.7%−0.725% to makePuntTheir call97.1%−0.3average punt
- Q4 0:51WAKE 4th & 5 at WAKE 47, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snapGo for it95.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.1%average punt
- Q4 0:51SYR 4th & 10 at WAKE 40, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.2%30% to convertField goal4.5%−0.734% to makePunt4.8%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 6SYR made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 10:13SYR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call27.3%97% to makeGo for two27.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:41WAKE Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.5%97% to makeGo for two72.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:34SYR Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call32.9%97% to makeGo for two32.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:53SYR Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call45.7%97% to makeGo for two45.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:07WAKE Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.5%97% to makeGo for two61.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:12WAKE Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.1%97% to makeGo for two71.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:20WAKE Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.8%97% to makeGo for two85.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 13:14WAKE Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.1%97% to makeGo for two93.9%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 12:30WAKE Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%−<0.197% to makeGo for two98.9%45% to convert
- Q4 10:01SYR Touchdown, down 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call3.2%97% to makeGo for two3.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:13SYR Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call7.4%97% to makeGo for two7.0%−0.445% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSYRDrive 1TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:4726% → 29%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 35
+13
74.3%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 13 yds to the Syrac 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
74.3%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Trebor Pena for 11 yds to the WFrst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+17
74.3%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 17 yds to the WFrst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+9
74.3%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 9 yds to the WFrst 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 2FG16 plays · 60 yds · 4:1072% → 71%
SYRDrive 3PUNT12 plays · 14 yds · 2:3230% → 30%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
70.2%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 2 yds to the Syrac 43Similar
Q1 5:07
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+14
70.3%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Damien Alford for 14 yds to the WFrst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:19
3RD & 10
OPP 45
-10
69.5%
SHRADER, Garrett pass to the right complete for 45 yards to ADAMS, D'Marcus caught at the WFU2 and advanced to the WFU0, TOUCHDOWN SYR, score nullified by penalty, clock 04:19. PENALTY SYR Holding on VETTORELLO, Carlos enforced 10 yards from the WFU45 to the SYR45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4PUNT9 plays · 35 yds · 2:1870% → 69%
Q1 3:23
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+3
69.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 3 yds to the WFrst 17Similar
Q1 3:23
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+13
69.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 13 yds to the WFrst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+6
69.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 6 yds to the WFrst 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5131% → 31%
WAKEDrive 6TD6 plays · 35 yds · 1:3371% → 75%
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+11
71.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 11 yds to the Syrac 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+9
71.0%
SYRACUSE Penalty, Personal Foul (Ja'Had Carter) to the Syrac 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-7
71.0%
Sam Hartman sacked by Justin Barron for a loss of 7 yards to the Syrac 12Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
74.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 12 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 7TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0728% → 33%
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
71.0%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 8 yds to the WFrst 45Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+43
70.6%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Damien Alford for 43 yds to the WFrst 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
67.4%
HARTMAN, Sam pass to the left incomplete intended for PERRY, A.T. thrown to the WFU40. PENALTY SYR Offsides on BASSETT II, Belizarre enforced 5 yards from the WFU25 to the WFU30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8DOWNS8 plays · 69 yds · 2:5469% → 68%
Q2 11:34
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+16
68.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
50
+36
69.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 36 yds to the Syrac 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
4TH & 1
OPP 5
0
67.5%
Sam Hartman run for no gain to the Syrac 6 Sam Hartman fumbled, recovered by WFrst Sam HartmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 9TD4 plays · 94 yds · 1:4735% → 48%
WAKEDrive 10TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4653% → 67%
SYRDrive 11MISSED FG6 plays · 11 yds · 2:3441% → 40%
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+30
58.6%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Trebor Pena for 30 yds to the WFrst 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 6
OPP 11
-12
57.0%
Garrett Shrader sacked by AJ Williams for a loss of 12 yards to the WFrst 23Similar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 18
OPP 23
-11
58.6%
Garrett Shrader sacked by Jasheen Davis and Kendron Wayman for a loss of 11 yards to the WFrst 34Similar
Q2 2:25
4TH & 29
OPP 34
+20
59.8%
Andre Szmyt 42 yd FG MISSED , Taylor Morin return for 20 yds to the WFrst 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 12TD13 plays · 80 yds · 2:1363% → 77%
Q2 2:25
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+7
62.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Blake Whiteheart for 7 yds to the WFrst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+10
64.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 10 yds to the WFrst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+6
65.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 6 yds to the Syrac 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
68.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Justice Ellison for 7 yds to the Syrac 16Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+6
68.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Blake Whiteheart for 6 yds to the Syrac 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
76.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 10 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 13END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 14PUNT8 plays · 31 yds · 2:3070% → 69%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
70.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 11 yds to the WFrst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
72.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 11 yds to the Syrac 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 39
-5
72.8%
Sam Hartman sacked by Caleb Okechukwu for a loss of 5 yards to the Syrac 44Similar
Q3 12:30
4TH & 14
OPP 44
0
69.4%
Zach Murphy punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Trebor Pena at the Syrac 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 3:2730% → 28%
Q3 9:03
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
72.0%
Maximilian Von Marburg punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16TD14 plays · 70 yds · 4:4372% → 87%
Q3 9:03
2ND & 5
OWN 47
-5
74.2%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start (Loic Ngassam Nya) to the WFrst 42Similar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+11
71.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 11 yds to the Syrac 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+5
74.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 5 yds to the Syrac 42Similar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+8
74.2%
HARTMAN, Sam pass to the right incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Ke'Shawn thrown to the SYR33. PENALTY SYR Pass Interference on SIMMONS JR., Jason enforced at the spot of the foul for 8 yards to the SYR34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+17
87.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 17 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2115% → 13%
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
85.5%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 13 yds to the Syrac 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-12
85.8%
SYRACUSE Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Garrett Shrader) to the Syrac 26Similar
Q3 2:52
4TH & 20
OWN 26
+5
86.9%
Maximilian Von Marburg punt for 34 yds , Taylor Morin returns for 5 yds to the WFrst 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 18TD11 plays · 55 yds · 4:3887% → 97%
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
87.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 8 yds to the Syrac 47Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+5
87.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 5 yds to the Syrac 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-4
87.0%
Sam Hartman sacked by Leon Lowery and Caleb Okechukwu for a loss of 4 yards to the Syrac 46Similar
Q3 2:52
3RD & 14
OPP 46
+13
85.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 13 yds to the Syrac 33Similar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
87.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 14 yds to the Syrac 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 19INT TD2 plays · 1 yds · 0:385% → 1%
SYRDrive 20TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:291% → 4%
Q4 12:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
98.7%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Trebor Pena for 2 yds to the Syrac 31Similar
Q4 11:06
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+10
98.8%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 10 yds to the Syrac 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+18
98.8%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 18 yds to the WFrst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
96.0%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 41 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 21PUNT10 plays · 30 yds · 3:4297% → 98%
Q4 10:01
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
97.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 9 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 22TD5 plays · 80 yds · 1:063% → 8%
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+25
97.3%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 25 yds to the Syrac 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 23PUNT10 plays · 18 yds · 4:2194% → 97%
SYRDrive 24MISSED FG7 plays · 24 yds · 0:474% → 4%
Q4 0:51
4TH & 10
OPP 40
+24
96.5%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 24 yds to the WFrst 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 25END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:07
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 29 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)
+12.1
TD · Q3 4:20
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 17 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)
+11.6
TD · Q2 6:53
LeQuint Allen pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 33 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK)
-10.2