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DUKE

Duke 26 at Pittsburgh 28

PITT
2022 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2022 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:11 · punt blocked by blocked by
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 22Pregame prior+14.4Home team on offense+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score differential−0.1Blowout margin−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:01: Riley Leonard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +13.2 pts (now 45%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:10: Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jared Wayne for 15 yds for a TD, (Ben Sauls KICK) — PITT win probability +10.1 pts (now 74%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:30: Brandon Hill 30 Yd Fumble Return (Israel Abanikanda Run for Two-Point Conversion) — PITT win probability +18.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:47: Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaylen Coleman for 19 yds for a TD, (J. Moore Run For Two-point Conversion) — DUKE win probability +19.3 pts (now 26%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:47: Timeout PITTSBURGH, clock 00:47 — DUKE win probability +13.7 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8DUKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 14:08DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:08PITT 4th & 3 at DUKE 29, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.0%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    68.7%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:29DUKE 4th & 5 at PITT 47, down 3
    Close callPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:11PITT 4th & 13 at PITT 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:32PITT 4th & 8 at PITT 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:46DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:22PITT 4th & 4 at PITT 49, up 3
    Close callPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:42DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:12PITT 4th & 9 at DUKE 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.2%
    49% to make
    Punt
    66.7%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:20DUKE 4th & 1 at PITT 8, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    28.3%−2.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    22.8%−7.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:11DUKE 4th & 3 at DUKE 47, down 6
    Close callPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:18DUKE 4th & 9 at PITT 32, down 6
    Close callWent for it · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.0%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    27.6%
    51% to make
    Punt
    25.7%−1.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:13PITT 4th & 11 at DUKE 47, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%−1.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:02PITT 4th & 9 at PITT 48, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:02DUKE 4th & 1 at PITT 44, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    8.3%−5.8
    27% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−4.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:39DUKE 4th & 5 at PITT 37, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    8.8%−1.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    7.1%−2.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:15PITT 4th & 3 at PITT 44, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    93.8%−0.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:47DUKE 4th & 18 at PITT 19, down 8
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.7 ptsWent for it · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%−1.7
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    6.7%
    77% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−3.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3DUKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 3:28DUKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:25PITT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:01DUKE Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:10PITT Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:30PITT Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    90.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:28DUKE Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    13.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    13.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:47DUKE Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    22.0%−2.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    24.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4633% → 33%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
66.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 3 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
66.9%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
66.9%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:08
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
66.9%
Porter Wilson punt for 18 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2FG
5 plays · 27 yds · 2:0067% → 67%
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+20
66.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Israel Abanikanda for 20 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
66.9%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+7
66.9%
Israel Abanikanda run for 7 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q1 14:08
3RD & 3
OPP 29
0
66.9%
Israel Abanikanda run for no gain to the Duke 29Similar
Q1 12:08
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+47
67.0%
Ben Sauls 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 3:3933% → 33%
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
66.9%
Jordan Waters run for 12 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
66.8%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+8
66.7%
Jordan Waters run for 8 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
66.7%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
66.7%
Jaylen Coleman run for 1 yd to the Duke 49Similar
Q1 12:08
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+4
66.8%
Jaylen Coleman run for 4 yds to the Pitt 47Similar
Q1 8:29
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
66.8%
Porter Wilson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by M.J. Devonshire at the Pitt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:1867% → 66%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+9
66.7%
Israel Abanikanda run for 9 yds to the Pitt 17Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 1
OWN 17
+8
66.8%
Israel Abanikanda run for 8 yds to the Pitt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
66.8%
Israel Abanikanda run for 5 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
66.9%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:29
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-8
66.6%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Ryan Smith for a loss of 8 yards to the Pitt 22Similar
Q1 6:11
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
66.0%
punt blocked by blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5TD
5 plays · 42 yds · 2:4334% → 38%
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
66.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 6 yds to the Pitt 36Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+2
66.0%
Jaylen Coleman run for 2 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+5
66.1%
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the Pitt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
65.8%
Jaylen Coleman run for 1 yd to the Pitt 28Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+28
62.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 28 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:5164% → 63%
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
63.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for 7 yds to the Pitt 38Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+5
64.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 5 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
64.5%
Bub Means run for 2 yds to the Pitt 45Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
64.6%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:23
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
63.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:32
4TH & 8
OWN 45
-4
62.5%
Caleb Junko punt for 45 yds , Jalon Calhoun returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7TD
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 1:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
67.8%
Israel Abanikanda run for 6 yds for a TD, (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3933% → 33%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
66.6%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the Duke 26Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
66.5%
Jaylen Coleman run for 1 yd to the Duke 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
67.0%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:46
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+11
67.5%
Porter Wilson punt for 41 yds , M.J. Devonshire returns for 11 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2467% → 66%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
67.2%
Israel Abanikanda run for 4 yds to the Pitt 47Similar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+2
67.4%
Israel Abanikanda run for 2 yds to the Pitt 49Similar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
67.0%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:22
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
66.2%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the Duke 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4033% → 32%
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
66.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for no gain to the Duke 13Similar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+4
66.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 4 yds to the Duke 17Similar
Q2 13:22
3RD & 6
OWN 17
0
67.2%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:42
4TH & 6
OWN 17
+4
67.8%
Porter Wilson punt for 57 yds , M.J. Devonshire returns for 4 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11FG
6 plays · 37 yds · 2:3066% → 70%
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
66.1%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 1 yd to the Pitt 31Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+35
66.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jared Wayne for 35 yds to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
68.1%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for no gain to the Duke 34Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
68.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:42
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+1
67.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Daniel Carter for 1 yd to the Duke 33Similar
Q2 9:12
4TH & 9
OPP 33
+51
70.4%
Ben Sauls 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 6:1131% → 45%
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
68.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 17 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
67.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 2 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
67.3%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:12
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
68.1%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
67.5%
Jaylen Coleman run for 4 yds to the Pitt 38Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+21
67.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 21 yds to the Pitt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
66.4%
Riley Leonard run for 6 yds to the Pitt 11 Riley Leonard fumbled, recovered by Duke Riley LeonardSimilar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+1
66.4%
Jaylen Coleman run for 1 yd to the Pitt 10Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+2
67.4%
Jaylen Coleman run for 2 yds to the Pitt 8Similar
Q2 7:20
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+7
68.2%
Jordan Waters run for 7 yds to the Pitt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
55.1%
Riley Leonard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13TD
13 plays · 73 yds · 2:4861% → 74%
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
60.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+4
60.3%
Israel Abanikanda run for 4 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+8
59.9%
Kedon Slovis run for 8 yds to the Pitt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
61.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+20
61.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Bub Means for 20 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
62.9%
SLOVIS, Kedon scrambles to the right for a gain of 4 yards to the DUK37, out of bounds. PENALTY PIT Holding on HOUY, Gabe enforced 10 yards from the DUK41 to the PIT49 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 20
OWN 49
+24
60.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jared Wayne for 24 yds to the Duke 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
64.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 11 yds to the Duke 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
64.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+1
63.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Israel Abanikanda for 1 yd to the Duke 15Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 9
OPP 15
+15
73.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jared Wayne for 15 yds for a TD, (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
69.1%
Kneel down by DUK at DUK33 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15INT
9 plays · 49 yds · 4:0673% → 75%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+19
73.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jared Wayne for 19 yds to the Pitt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
74.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 5 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+26
74.9%
Israel Abanikanda run for 26 yds to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
75.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 7 yds to the Duke 24Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+1
75.2%
Israel Abanikanda run for 1 yd to the Duke 23Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+5
74.4%
Israel Abanikanda run for 5 yds to the Duke 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
75.2%
Israel Abanikanda run for 1 yd to the Duke 17Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 9
OPP 17
-15
75.2%
SLOVIS, Kedon pass up the middle incomplete intended for WAYNE, Jared broken up by FRANKLIN, Ja'Mion at the DUK17. PENALTY PIT Personal Foul on HOUY, Gabe enforced 15 yards from the DUK17 to the DUK32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 24
OPP 32
0
74.9%
Kedon Slovis pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3731% → 26%
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
69.3%
Jordan Waters run for no gain to the Duke 40Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
69.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 7 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
68.5%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:11
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
70.9%
Porter Wilson punt for 28 ydsSimilar
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
73.7%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (Jake Kradel) to the Pitt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17INT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:1073% → 75%
Q3 9:11
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
73.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+2
73.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 2 yds to the Pitt 22Similar
Q3 9:11
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+14
72.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 14 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
74.6%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (Marcus Minor) to the Pitt 31Similar
Q3 9:11
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+10
73.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 10 yds to the Pitt 41Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
75.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
75.0%
Kedon Slovis pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 15 yds · 3:4332% → 30%
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
67.9%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-1
68.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaylen Coleman for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 48Similar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+15
70.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 15 yds to the Pitt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-12
66.4%
Riley Leonard sacked by Shayne Simon for a loss of 12 yards to the Pitt 45Similar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 22
OPP 45
+12
70.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 12 yds to the Pitt 33Similar
Q3 3:26
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+1
67.4%
Riley Leonard run for 1 yd to the Pitt 32Similar
Q3 3:18
4TH & 9
OPP 32
0
70.5%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 21 yds · 4:0577% → 77%
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
76.5%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 4 yds to the Pitt 36Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+3
77.4%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q3 3:18
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+3
77.3%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the Pitt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
78.5%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the Pitt 45Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+6
78.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 6 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q3 3:18
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+3
78.0%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
81.3%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+1
81.1%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 1 yd to the Duke 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 42
0
80.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 42
-5
78.4%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Duke 47Similar
Q4 14:13
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
77.4%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the Duke 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20FUMBLE RETURN TD
2 plays · 20 yds · 0:4328% → 10%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+16
71.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 16 yds to the Duke 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+30
90.3%
Brandon Hill 30 Yd Fumble Return (Israel Abanikanda Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21TD
10 plays · 82 yds · 3:549% → 17%
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
90.6%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+9
90.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 9 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q4 13:22
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+2
89.7%
Jaylen Coleman run for 2 yds to the Duke 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
89.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Cole Finney for 3 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
89.5%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:22
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+8
90.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 8 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
89.3%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+4
89.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 4 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q4 13:22
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+7
89.3%
Jaylen Coleman run for 7 yds to the Pitt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
82.6%
Jordan Moore 49 Yd pass from Riley Leonard (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:2688% → 88%
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
87.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 22 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
89.1%
Israel Abanikanda run for 1 yd to the Pitt 48Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
89.0%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
88.0%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:02
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
88.4%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the Duke 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23DOWNS
12 plays · 48 yds · 4:2313% → 13%
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
87.2%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
87.5%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+32
88.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 32 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
83.7%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
84.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 7
50
+6
84.0%
Jaylen Coleman run for 6 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
Q4 8:02
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+2
84.6%
Jaylen Coleman run for 2 yds to the Pitt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
82.9%
LEONARD, Riley pass to the right complete for 9 yards to WATERS, Jordan caught at the PIT42 and advanced to the PIT33 (WILTZ, Tylar). PENALTY DUK Holding on HARRIS, JR., Andre enforced 10 yards from the PIT42 to the DUK48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 20
OWN 48
-7
85.3%
Riley Leonard run for a loss of 7 yards to the Duke 41Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 27
OWN 41
+22
86.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 22 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 5
OPP 37
0
83.5%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:39
4TH & 5
OPP 37
0
87.5%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · -15 yds · 0:1795% → 95%
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
94.7%
C'Bo Flemister run for 4 yds to the Pitt 41Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+3
95.8%
C'Bo Flemister run for 3 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
Q4 3:26
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
95.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:15
4TH & 3
OWN 44
-22
95.3%
Caleb Junko run for a loss of 22 yards to the Pitt 22 Caleb Junko fumbled, recovered by Pitt Caleb JunkoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25TD
10 plays · 22 yds · 2:2812% → 26%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
87.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for no gain to the Pitt 22Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
88.5%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+11
90.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 11 yds to the Pitt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
87.6%
Riley Leonard run for 2 yds to the Pitt 9Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
87.6%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 8
OPP 9
-10
89.1%
LEONARD, Riley scrambles up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the PIT6 (ALEXANDRE, Deslin). PENALTY DUK Holding on BARTON, Graham enforced 10 yards from the PIT9 to the PIT19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 18
OPP 19
0
92.0%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:47
4TH & 18
OPP 19
+19
74.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaylen Coleman for 19 yds for a TD, (J. Moore Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
95.6%
[SG] Kneel down by PIT at DUK45 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:47
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaylen Coleman for 19 yds for a TD, (J. Moore Run For Two-point Conversion)
-19.3
TD · Q4 13:30
Brandon Hill 30 Yd Fumble Return (Israel Abanikanda Run for Two-Point Conversion)
+18.6
TD · Q4 0:47
Timeout PITTSBURGH, clock 00:47
-13.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com