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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreMIA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:39 · Lou Hedley punt for 61 yds, downed at the Clem 6
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 9:26: DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 7 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q1 4:05: DJ Uiagalelei run for 8 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +2.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:22: DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Luke Price for 3 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +3.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:45: Jake Garcia pass complete to Kahlil Brantley for 1 yd for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +4.4 pts (now 6%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:40: Will Shipley run for 3 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +1.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 5MIA made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 7:39MIA 4th & 17 at MIA 18, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.7% before the snapGo for it11.6%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.7%average punt
- Q1 1:53MIA 4th & 27 at MIA 8, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snapGo for it9.7%−0.96% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.6%average punt
- Q2 14:54CLEM 4th & 11 at midfield, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.7% before the snapGo for it89.6%−0.326% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.9%average punt
- Q2 8:39MIA 4th & 2 at MIA 33, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snapGo for it5.9%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.9%average punt
- Q2 6:20CLEM 4th & 5 at CLEM 11, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.7% before the snapGo for it94.4%−0.640% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.9%average punt
- Q2 4:46MIA 4th & 10 at MIA 38, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snapGo for it4.7%−0.429% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.1%average punt
- Q2 0:00CLEM 4th & 15 at MIA 15, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.3% before the snapGo for it95.3%−0.815% to convertField goalTheir call96.2%83% to makePunt93.3%−2.8average punt
- Q3 11:50MIA 4th & 1 at CLEM 26, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.6%71% to convertField goal3.0%−0.764% to makePunt1.2%−2.4average punt
- Q3 8:33CLEM 4th & 10 at MIA 42, up 24Close callKicked a field goal · 97.2% before the snapGo for it97.2%−0.130% to convertField goalTheir call97.1%−0.230% to makePunt97.3%average punt
- Q3 5:55MIA 4th & 20 at CLEM 26, down 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.3% before the snapGo for it1.7%−0.69% to convertField goalTheir call2.4%64% to makePunt1.0%−1.4average punt
- Q3 2:48MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 25, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snapGo for it2.2%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.3%average punt
- Q4 12:24CLEM 4th & 8 at CLEM 30, up 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.9% before the snapGo for it95.8%−0.333% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.1%average punt
- Q4 9:27MIA 4th & 21 at MIA 38, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snapGo for it3.0%−0.89% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.8%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MIA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 9:26CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.2%97% to makeGo for two88.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:05CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.2%97% to makeGo for two89.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:22CLEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.8%97% to makeGo for two94.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:45MIA Touchdown, down 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call3.8%97% to makeGo for two3.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:40CLEM Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:16CLEM Touchdown, up 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLEMDrive 1TD14 plays · 75 yds · 5:2989% → 89%
Q1 14:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
88.7%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 5 yds to the Clem 31Similar
Q1 13:42
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+13
88.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Joseph Ngata for 13 yds to the Clem 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+14
88.2%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Antonio Williams for 14 yds to the MiaFl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
88.6%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 7 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2PUNT6 plays · -8 yds · 1:4412% → 12%
CLEMDrive 3TD9 plays · 57 yds · 3:2988% → 90%
Q1 7:23
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+7
88.2%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Antonio Williams for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:54
3RD & 3
50
+5
88.2%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Will Shipley for 5 yds to the MiaFl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+12
88.3%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Brannon Spector for 12 yds to the MiaFl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
88.3%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Antonio Williams for 2 yds to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+17
88.3%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Phil Mafah for 17 yds to the MiaFl 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4PUNT5 plays · -17 yds · 2:0511% → 10%
CLEMDrive 5PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:4390% → 90%
MIADrive 6INT4 plays · 11 yds · 1:3211% → 10%
CLEMDrive 7TD6 plays · 27 yds · 2:3591% → 95%
MIADrive 8PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:406% → 6%
Q2 9:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
94.5%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Colbie Young for 8 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 2:1095% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:246% → 5%
CLEMDrive 11END OF HALF16 plays · 76 yds · 4:3796% → 96%
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
95.7%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Will Shipley for 9 yds to the Clem 18Similar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+21
96.0%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Brannon Spector for 6 yds to the Clem 28 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Personal Foul (James Williams) to the Clem 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+18
96.2%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Adam Randall for 18 yds to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-8
96.5%
DJ Uiagalelei sacked by Akheem Mesidor for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaFl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12DOWNS8 plays · 49 yds · 3:024% → 4%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+13
95.4%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Colbie Young for 13 yds to the Clem 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 13MISSED FG10 plays · 32 yds · 2:4997% → 97%
MIADrive 14FG7 plays · 32 yds · 2:303% → 3%
Q3 8:17
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+15
97.4%
Brown, Jacurri pass incomplete, PENALTY CLEMSON roughing passer 15 yards to the CLEMSON43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+27
97.4%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Will Mallory for 27 yds to the Clem 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-10
97.0%
Jacurri Brown sacked by K.J. Henry for a loss of 10 yards to the Clem 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15INT6 plays · 28 yds · 1:3698% → 98%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
97.6%
Will Shipley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 24 Will Shipley fumbled, recovered by Clem Will ShipleySimilar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+6
97.6%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 6 yds to the Clem 30Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
97.3%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Antonio Williams for 8 yds to the Clem 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
97.4%
Uiagalelei, DJ pass incomplete to Williams, Antonio, PENALTY MIAMI pass interference 15 yards to the MIAMI47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
97.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass intercepted DJ Ivey return for no gain to the MiaFl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:572% → 2%
Q3 2:48
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+18
97.9%
Lou Hedley punt for 45 yds , Antonio Williams returns for 18 yds to the Clem 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17FUMBLE2 plays · 44 yds · 0:3698% → 99%
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+17
98.6%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 17 yds Davis Allen fumbled, forced by Kamren Kinchens, recovered by MiaFl DJ Ivey , return for 1 yd to the MiaFl 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18SF1 play · -9 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-9
98.5%
Jacurri Brown sacked by Toriano Pride Jr. for a loss of 9 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19FUMBLE6 plays · 6 yds · 1:3999% → 99%
Q3 0:38
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+9
98.8%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Cole Turner for 9 yds to the Clem 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+26
98.9%
DJ Uiagalelei sacked by Akheem Mesidor for a loss of 7 yards to the Clem 10 DJ Uiagalelei fumbled, forced by Akheem Mesidor, recovered by MiaFl Jordan Miller , return for 0 yards , return for 26 yds to the Clem 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20TD3 plays · 10 yds · 0:512% → 6%
Q4 13:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.2%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Kahlil Brantley for 1 yd for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0296% → 96%
Q4 12:24
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
96.3%
Aidan Swanson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jacolby George at the MiaFl 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22FUMBLE10 plays · 5 yds · 2:575% → 3%
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
94.8%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (John Campbell Jr.) to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+8
95.4%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Colbie Young for 8 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q4 9:38
3RD & 15
OWN 44
-6
96.7%
Jake Garcia sacked by Trenton Simpson for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q4 9:27
4TH & 21
OWN 38
0
96.8%
Lou Hedley punt for 48 yds , Antonio Williams returns for no gain to the Clem 14 Antonio Williams fumbled, recovered by ClemSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 23TD9 plays · 86 yds · 4:4097% → 100%
MIADrive 24FUMBLE3 plays · -2 yds · 0:110% → 0%
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
99.6%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Will Mallory for 6 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 4
OWN 44
-8
99.6%
Jake Garcia sacked by Trenton Simpson for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaFl 36 Jake Garcia fumbled, forced by Trenton Simpson, recovered by Clem Tre Williams , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 25TD8 plays · 36 yds · 3:10100% → 100%
MIADrive 26END OF GAME2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:45
Jake Garcia pass complete to Kahlil Brantley for 1 yd for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)
-4.4
TD · Q2 10:22
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Luke Price for 3 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)
+3.8
TD · Q1 4:05
DJ Uiagalelei run for 8 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)
+2