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UNC

North Carolina 36 at Wake Forest 34

WAKE
2022 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2022 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:23 · Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 40 yds to the NCaro 2 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 64Pregame prior+8.0Home team on offense−5.9Score differential−3.4Garbage-time factor−1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:06: Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 7 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK) — WAKE win probability +13.8 pts (now 64%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:35: Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 32 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK) — WAKE win probability +16.1 pts (now 68%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:27: Drake Maye run for 5 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed) — UNC win probability +19.3 pts (now 62%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:26: Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 60 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — WAKE win probability +20.0 pts (now 66%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 2:12: Noah Burnette 33 yd FG GOOD — UNC win probability +29.4 pts (now 71%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 8 of 9UNC made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 12:40WAKE 4th & 10 at WAKE 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:04WAKE 4th & 3 at WAKE 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:23WAKE 4th & 2 at UNC 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    49.0%−1.7
    30% to make
    Punt
    49.4%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:13WAKE 4th & 1 at UNC 1, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    42.8%−2.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    37.4%−7.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:55UNC 4th & 19 at UNC 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−2.8
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:55WAKE 4th & 3 at UNC 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    50.9%−0.8
    58% to make
    Punt
    45.9%−5.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:48WAKE 4th & 24 at WAKE 11, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−4.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:01UNC 4th & 10 at midfield, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:47UNC 4th & 2 at WAKE 27, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    54.4%−1.5
    62% to make
    Punt
    47.3%−8.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:47UNC 4th & 2 at WAKE 27, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    54.4%−1.5
    62% to make
    Punt
    47.3%−8.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:47WAKE 4th & 1 at WAKE 36, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    45.9%−2.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:20UNC 4th & 1 at WAKE 1, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    32.7%−6.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    16.7%−22.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:59WAKE 4th & 3 at UNC 10, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.2%
    49% to convert
    Field goal
    64.5%−1.8
    88% to make
    Punt
    49.6%−16.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:47UNC 4th & 4 at UNC 33, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−0.9
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:12UNC 4th & 16 at WAKE 16, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−15.8
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    23.5%−26.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:12WAKE 4th & 12 at WAKE 23, down 2
    Numbers favored punt by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.2%−1.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 9:17UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:13UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:21WAKE Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:23UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:13WAKE Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:06WAKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 2:22UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    51.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:35WAKE Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 5:27UNC Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    58.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    58.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 4:26WAKE Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    66.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    66.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WAKEDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:2061% → 61%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
61.2%
Justice Ellison run for 20 yds to the WFrst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
61.2%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
61.2%
Sam Hartman run for 1 yd to the WFrst 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 46
-10
61.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Hartman,Sam pass complete deep right to Ellison,Justice for 15 yards to the UNC39 (Gray,Cedric) PENALTY Wake Holding (Gordon,DeVonte) 10 yards from Wake46 to Wake36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 36
+14
61.2%
Sam Hartman run for 14 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
50
-5
61.2%
PENALTY Wake False Start (Nash,Je'Vionte) 5 yards from Wake50 to Wake45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:40
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
61.1%
Ivan Mora punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2TD
10 plays · 91 yds · 3:2339% → 42%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
61.2%
Drake Maye run for 6 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 4
OWN 15
0
61.2%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Elijah GreenSimilar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+6
61.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 6 yds to the NCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+25
61.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 25 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
60.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 14 yds to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
60.9%
Elijah Green run for 2 yds to the WFrst 38Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+9
60.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 9 yds to the WFrst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
60.8%
Elijah Green run for no gain to the WFrst 29Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+17
60.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 17 yds to the WFrst 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
58.4%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 12 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:1359% → 58%
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
59.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Hartman,Sam rush middle for 8 yards gain to the Wake33 (Murphy,Myles) PENALTY Wake Holding offsetting UNC Holding offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
59.0%
Christian Turner run for 7 yds to the WFrst 32Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
59.3%
Christian Turner run for no gain to the WFrst 32Similar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
59.0%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:04
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
58.2%
Ivan Mora punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Josh Downs at the NCaro 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4TD
4 plays · 69 yds · 0:5142% → 46%
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+24
58.0%
Elijah Green run for 24 yds to the WFrst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
57.5%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 15
50
+45
57.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 45 yds to the WFrst 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
54.0%
Elijah Green run for 5 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 5TD
12 plays · 78 yds · 3:4655% → 58%
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
55.4%
Justice Ellison run for 9 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+1
55.7%
Justice Ellison run for 1 yd to the WFrst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
55.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 16 yds to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
56.1%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Taylor MorinSimilar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+14
56.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 14 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
56.1%
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+6
56.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 6 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+2
56.2%
Justice Ellison run for 2 yds to the NCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+13
56.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 13 yds to the NCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
56.4%
Justice Ellison run for 7 yds to the NCaro 7Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+7
58.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 7 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6TD
15 plays · 64 yds · 4:5045% → 55%
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
55.4%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 9 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
54.9%
Drake Maye run for no gain to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 3:13
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+5
55.2%
Elijah Green run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
50
0
54.8%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 10
50
0
54.9%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q1 3:13
3RD & 10
50
+12
55.2%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 12 yds to the WFrst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
54.8%
Elijah Green run for 1 yd to the WFrst 37Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+19
54.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to John Copenhaver for 19 yds to the WFrst 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
52.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 8 yds to the WFrst 10Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 10
-15
52.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Green,Elijah rush middle for 2 yards loss to the Wake12 (Harris,Brendon; Williams,Tyler) PENALTY UNC Block Below Waist (Morales,Kamari) 15 yards from Wake10 to Wake25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 17
OPP 25
+11
52.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to Elijah Green for 11 yds to the WFrst 14Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+7
52.8%
Elijah Green run for 7 yds to the WFrst 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
52.5%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q2 13:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
45.2%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 7 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 7TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:1047% → 55%
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
47.4%
Christian Turner run for 5 yds to the WFrst 30Similar
Q2 13:23
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
48.0%
Sam Hartman run for 1 yd to the WFrst 31Similar
Q2 13:23
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
47.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 4 yds to the WFrst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
47.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
50
0
48.9%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jahmal BanksSimilar
Q2 13:23
2ND & 10
50
+4
48.8%
Christian Turner run for 4 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q2 13:23
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+4
48.8%
Christian Turner run for 4 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q2 13:23
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+40
48.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 40 yds to the NCaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
49.4%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Ke'Shawn WilliamsSimilar
Q2 13:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
49.4%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q2 13:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
48.9%
Christian Turner run for 1 yd to the NCaro 1Similar
Q2 9:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
52.8%
Christian Turner run for 1 yd for a TD NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Illegal Substitution Offside (Tony Grimes) declined, (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
Q2 9:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
54.9%
PENALTY UNC Offside (Murphy,Myles) 2 yards from UNC03 to UNC03. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
54.9%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start (Matt Gulbin) to the NCaro 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 1 yds · 3:1349% → 50%
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
50.6%
Drake Maye run for 2 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+7
50.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 7 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+1
50.1%
Drake Maye run for 1 yd to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
49.7%
Drake Maye sacked by Jasheen Davis for a loss of 10 yards to the NCaro 28Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 20
OWN 28
+6
51.4%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 6 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 14
OWN 34
-5
52.0%
Drake Maye sacked by Jasheen Davis for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 29Similar
Q2 5:55
4TH & 19
OWN 29
+14
49.7%
Ben Kiernan punt for 36 yds for a 1ST down , Taylor Morin returns for 14 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 9TD
5 plays · 36 yds · 1:4952% → 64%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
51.8%
Quinton Cooley run for no gain to the NCaro 36Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
51.7%
Sam Hartman run for no gain to the NCaro 36Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+7
50.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 7 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q2 5:55
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+22
50.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 22 yds to the NCaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
63.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 7 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4443% → 56%
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
57.4%
Elijah Green run for 5 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
54.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Gavin Blackwell for 12 yds to the WFrst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+19
54.7%
Drake Maye run for 19 yds to the WFrst 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
43.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 20 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -14 yds · 0:3449% → 48%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.4%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donavon GreeneSimilar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
49.2%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Justice EllisonSimilar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-14
48.1%
Sam Hartman sacked for a loss of 14 yards to the WFrst 11Similar
Q2 1:48
4TH & 24
OWN 11
0
48.2%
Ivan Mora punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Josh Downs at the NCaro 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:4755% → 53%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
44.9%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to D.J. JonesSimilar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+10
45.4%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
50
0
44.5%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Gavin BlackwellSimilar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 10
50
0
44.5%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. JonesSimilar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 10
50
0
45.3%
Drake Maye run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 10
50
0
46.7%
Ben Kiernan punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WFrst 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 9 yds · 1:0149% → 49%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
49.1%
Christian Turner run for 6 yds to the WFrst 11Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 11
+3
48.8%
Christian Turner run for 3 yds to the WFrst 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14DOWNS
13 plays · 48 yds · 3:1355% → 57%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
45.4%
Drake Maye pass complete to Gavin Blackwell for 8 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
44.3%
Elijah Green run for no gain to the NCaro 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
44.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kamari Morales for 4 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
44.3%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Gavin BlackwellSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
44.7%
Drake Maye run for 8 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 45
-5
43.8%
PENALTY UNC False Start (Olson,Justin) 5 yards from UNC45 to UNC40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+25
44.2%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 25 yds to the WFrst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
42.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kamari Morales for 8 yds to the WFrst 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 27
0
42.5%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 27
0
43.1%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. JonesSimilar
Q3 11:47
4TH & 2
OPP 27
0
42.9%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Kamari MoralesSimilar
Q3 11:47
4TH & 2
OPP 27
0
42.9%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Kamari MoralesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 15TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 3:1247% → 68%
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
46.9%
Justice Ellison run for 2 yds to the WFrst 25Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+7
46.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 7 yds to the WFrst 32Similar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+4
46.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 4 yds to the WFrst 36Similar
Q3 11:47
4TH & 1
OWN 36
+10
45.9%
Justice Ellison run for 10 yds to the WFrst 46 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Tony Grimes) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
49.5%
Justice Ellison run for 7 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+4
50.6%
Justice Ellison run for 4 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
50.6%
Sam Hartman run for 8 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+3
52.0%
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
68.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 32 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16TD
12 plays · 69 yds · 3:0638% → 63%
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
62.3%
Elijah Green run for no gain to the NCaro 31Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+22
62.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to John Copenhaver for 22 yds to the WFrst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
59.2%
Elijah Green run for 8 yds to the WFrst 39Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+24
58.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 24 yds to the WFrst 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
57.5%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Gavin BlackwellSimilar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+8
57.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to Elijah Green for 8 yds to the WFrst 7Similar
Q3 8:33
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+2
59.0%
Elijah Green run for 2 yds to the WFrst 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
57.5%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Bryson NesbitSimilar
Q3 8:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
57.5%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Kobe PaysourSimilar
Q3 5:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
38.3%
Drake Maye run for 5 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
Q3 5:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
36.7%
Maye,Drake pass attempt failed PENALTY Wake Pass Interference (Slocum,Evan) 1 yard from Wake03 to Wake03. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 17TD
5 plays · 72 yds · 0:5445% → 66%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
44.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 10 yds to the WFrst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
45.6%
Christian Turner run for 2 yds to the WFrst 40Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+60
65.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 60 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18DOWNS
11 plays · 80 yds · 5:0037% → 40%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
62.7%
Drake Maye run for 5 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+22
62.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 22 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
59.1%
Elijah Green run for 2 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+15
59.0%
Drake Maye run for 15 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
58.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to Elijah Green for 11 yds to the WFrst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
56.7%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+18
57.2%
Drake Maye run for 18 yds to the WFrst 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
56.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 7 yds to the WFrst 1Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
55.9%
Drake Maye run for no gain to the WFrst 1Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
57.6%
Elijah Green run for no gain to the WFrst 1Similar
Q4 14:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
59.9%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 19DOWNS
12 plays · 91 yds · 5:2163% → 66%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
63.1%
Quinton Cooley run for 4 yds to the WFrst 5Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+16
62.8%
Quinton Cooley run for 16 yds to the WFrst 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-10
63.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Cooley,Quinton rush middle for 14 yards gain to the Wake35 (Biggers,Giovanni) PENALTY Wake Holding (Ngassam Nya,Loic) 10 yards from Wake21 to Wake11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 20
OWN 11
+12
63.6%
Quinton Cooley run for 12 yds to the WFrst 23Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+2
63.7%
Quinton Cooley run for 2 yds to the WFrst 25Similar
Q4 14:20
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+48
62.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 48 yds to the NCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
69.6%
Justice Ellison run for 6 yds to the NCaro 21Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+4
69.6%
Justice Ellison run for 4 yds to the NCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
69.6%
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the NCaro 14Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+4
69.6%
Justice Ellison run for 4 yds to the NCaro 10Similar
Q4 14:20
3RD & 3
OPP 10
0
67.9%
Justice Ellison run for no gain to the NCaro 10Similar
Q4 8:59
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+2
65.8%
Sam Hartman run for 2 yds to the NCaro 8 Sam Hartman fumbled, recovered by NCaro Michael JurgensSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 3:1238% → 36%
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
62.2%
Elijah Green run for 8 yds to the NCaro 16Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 2
OWN 16
+11
61.5%
Elijah Green run for 11 yds to the NCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
61.0%
Drake Maye run for 3 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+3
60.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 3 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q4 6:41
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
60.2%
Drake Maye run for no gain to the NCaro 33Similar
Q4 5:47
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
63.6%
Ben Kiernan punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 21INT
6 plays · 36 yds · 1:2767% → 72%
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
66.6%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (Cedric Gray) to the WFrst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
70.5%
Christian Turner run for no gain to the WFrst 46Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
68.7%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donavon GreeneSimilar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
66.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Hartman,Sam pass incomplete short right to Greene,Donavon, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UNC Pass Interference (Grimes,Tony) 11 yard from Wake46 to UNC43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
71.7%
Quinton Cooley run for 2 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
71.9%
Sam Hartman pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22FG
6 plays · 32 yds · 2:0845% → 71%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+43
55.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 43 yds to the WFrst 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-6
53.2%
Drake Maye sacked by Chase Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the WFrst 11Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
-5
53.5%
PENALTY UNC False Start (Jones,J.J.) 5 yards from Wake11 to Wake16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
0
54.6%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
0
58.3%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q4 2:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 16
+33
28.9%
Noah Burnette 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · -2 yds · 0:5842% → 35%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
42.1%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
41.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Hartman,Sam pass complete deep right to Perry,A.T. for 44 yards to the UNC31, End Of Play PENALTY Wake Holding (Nash,Je'Vionte) 10 yards from Wake25 to Wake15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+8
40.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 8 yds to the WFrst 23Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
39.2%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q4 2:12
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
37.7%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Blake WhiteheartSimilar
Q4 1:14
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
34.5%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, Defensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:1485% → 95%
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
14.8%
Elijah Green run for 1 yd to the WFrst 22Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+8
12.0%
Drake Maye run for 8 yds to the WFrst 14Similar
Q4 1:01
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+2
12.0%
Drake Maye run for 2 yds to the WFrst 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
4.9%
run for 1 yd to the WFrst 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 2:12
Noah Burnette 33 yd FG GOOD
-29.4
TD · Q3 4:26
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 60 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+20
TD · Q3 5:27
Drake Maye run for 5 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-19.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com