2022 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2022 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreMIA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:53 · Lou Hedley punt for 45 yds, downed at the GTech 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsOne-score game
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 9:26: Jacurri Brown pass complete to Jaleel Skinner for 4 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +10.1 pts (now 66%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:30: Zach Pyron pass complete to Nate McCollum for 9 yds for a TD, (Gavin Stewart KICK) — GT win probability +13.4 pts (now 45%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 2:54: Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 13 — MIA win probability +10.0 pts (now 69%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:52: Jacurri Brown pass complete to Colbie Young for 8 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +12.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:29: Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +3.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 3 of 6MIA made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
- Q1 3:53MIA 4th & 4 at MIA 26, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.7% before the snapGo for it47.0%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.0%average punt
- Q1 1:57GT 4th & 6 at MIA 44, down 7Close callPunted · 52.3% before the snapGo for it52.6%40% to convertField goal51.7%−0.927% to makePuntTheir call52.4%−0.2average punt
- Q2 7:25GT 4th & 10 at GT 37, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snapGo for it36.8%−0.729% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.4%average punt
- Q2 4:49MIA 4th & 11 at GT 41, up 14Close callPunted · 64.6% before the snapGo for it64.1%27% to convertField goal63.8%−0.332% to makePuntTheir call64.0%−0.1average punt
- Q3 13:22GT 4th & 8 at GT 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.1% before the snapGo for it39.7%−1.933% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.5%average punt
- Q3 10:48MIA 4th & 9 at GT 45, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.8% before the snapGo for it61.9%−0.732% to convertField goal60.5%−2.125% to makePuntTheir call62.6%average punt
- Q3 7:48GT 4th & 3 at GT 44, down 7Close callPunted · 39.8% before the snapGo for it41.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.2%−0.7average punt
- Q3 4:50MIA 4th & 4 at MIA 40, up 7Close callPunted · 66.3% before the snapGo for it67.2%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.5%−0.7average punt
- Q4 13:03MIA 4th & 4 at MIA 46, up 7Close callPunted · 73.5% before the snapGo for it74.2%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.7%−0.5average punt
- Q4 6:13GT 4th & 3 at GT 34, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt6.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 1:27GT 4th & 4 at MIA 19, down 28Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.147% to convertField goal0.2%77% to makePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 1 of 2MIA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 8:44MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call44.4%97% to makeGo for two44.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:26MIA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.5%97% to makeGo for two57.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:30GT Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call39.3%97% to makeGo for two39.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:52MIA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.1%97% to makeGo for two90.4%−0.745% to convert
- Q4 4:29MIA Touchdown, up 20 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%−<0.197% to makeGo for two98.8%45% to convert
- Q4 2:36MIA Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:36GT Touchdown, down 22 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call0.6%−0.197% to makeGo for two0.6%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMIADrive 1TD11 plays · 75 yds · 6:1649% → 52%
GTDrive 2INT10 plays · 43 yds · 2:3549% → 49%
Q1 8:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
49.2%
Zach Pyron pass complete to Nate McCollum for 11 yds to the GTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+16
49.7%
Zach Pyron pass complete to Nate McCollum for 16 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:27
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+5
49.8%
PYRON, Zach pass up the middle incomplete intended for MCCOLLUM, Nate thrown to the MIA30. PENALTY MIA Offsides on JACKSON, Darrell enforced 5 yards from the MIA35 to the MIA30 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3PUNT7 plays · 24 yds · 2:1652% → 51%
Q1 4:53
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+14
48.7%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Brashard Smith for 14 yds to the MiaFl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 27 yds · 1:5649% → 48%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5TD14 plays · 93 yds · 7:3152% → 66%
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
47.8%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 4 yds to the MiaFl 11Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 12
+19
47.3%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 19 yds to the MiaFl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+13
46.1%
Jaylan Knighton run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
50
+11
44.7%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Colbie Young for 11 yds to the GTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
34.0%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Jaleel Skinner for 4 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 12 yds · 2:0136% → 34%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7PUNT5 plays · 24 yds · 2:3666% → 68%
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
32.7%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jacurri Brown) to the GTech 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 8TD16 plays · 99 yds · 4:1932% → 45%
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+7
32.2%
Zach Pyron pass complete to Malachi Carter for 7 yds to the GTech 8Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 3
OWN 8
+5
32.2%
Zach Pyron pass complete to Nate McCollum for 5 yds to the GTech 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
31.3%
Zach Pyron pass complete to Jamie Felix for 14 yds to the GTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
31.3%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Face mask (0 yards) (Te'Cory Couch) to the MiaFl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
31.3%
Zach Pyron pass complete to Dontae Smith for 5 yds to the MiaFl 9Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+9
44.7%
Zach Pyron pass complete to Nate McCollum for 9 yds for a TD, (Gavin Stewart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
37.7%
[NHSG] Kneel down by BROWN, Jacurri at MIA23 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3840% → 37%
MIADrive 11PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 2:3466% → 64%
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
34.5%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 3 yds to the GTech 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 24 yds · 3:0038% → 34%
Q3 10:48
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+15
37.8%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Akheem Mesidor) to the GTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
38.8%
Zach Pyron pass complete to Hassan Hall for 1 yd to the GTech 38Similar
Q3 9:36
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
39.9%
Zach Pyron pass complete to Hassan Hall for no gain to the GTech 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13PUNT6 plays · 24 yds · 2:5866% → 68%
GTDrive 14INT5 plays · 56 yds · 1:3235% → 42%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+42
35.0%
Zach Pyron pass complete to Nate McCollum for 42 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15PUNT9 plays · 37 yds · 4:5169% → 75%
GTDrive 16INT4 plays · 13 yds · 1:1730% → 29%
Q4 13:03
2ND & 12
OWN 3
+11
29.5%
GIBSON, Zach pass up the middle incomplete intended for LEONARD, Dylan thrown to the GT15. PENALTY MIA Pass Interference on BISSAINTHE, Wesley enforced 11 yards to the GT14 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
29.9%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Nate McCollum for 4 yds to the GTech 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17TD8 plays · 51 yds · 3:5477% → 94%
GTDrive 18DOWNS5 plays · 7 yds · 1:348% → 6%
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-3
7.9%
Zach Gibson sacked by Mitchell Agude for a loss of 3 yards to the GTech 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19TD4 plays · 34 yds · 1:4496% → 99%
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
3.9%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Clayton Powell-Lee) to the GTech 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 20INT TD7 plays · 58 yds · 1:461% → 0%
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+23
1.2%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Peje' Harris for 23 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
1.1%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Hassan Hall for 8 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+17
1.2%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Malachi Carter for 17 yds to the MiaFl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
1.3%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Hassan Hall for 5 yds to the MiaFl 17Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+5
1.3%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Hassan Hall for 5 yds to the MiaFl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-99
0.1%
Kamren Kinchens 99 Yd Interception Return (Andres Borregales Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 21TD15 plays · 71 yds · 1:560% → 1%
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+27
0.1%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 27 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+9
0.1%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Luke Benson for 9 yds to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q4 1:27
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+6
0.1%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 6 yds to the MiaFl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:53
3RD & 10
OPP 13
-2
0.1%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Jamie Felix for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q4 0:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
0.8%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Jamie Felix for 7 yds for a TD, (Gavin Stewart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22END OF 4TH QUARTER1 play · -9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
0.3%
[NH] Kneel down by YOUNG, Colbie at GT48 (team loss of 9), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:30
Zach Pyron pass complete to Nate McCollum for 9 yds for a TD, (Gavin Stewart KICK)
+13.4
TD · Q4 7:52
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Colbie Young for 8 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)
-12.6
TD · Q2 9:26
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Jaleel Skinner for 4 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)
-10.1