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VT

Virginia Tech 7 at Duke 24

DUKE
2022 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2022 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadVT aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreVT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:59 · Grant Wells pass incomplete to Kaleb Smith
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 111Pregame prior+8.2Home team on offense+10.4Score differential+3.8Garbage-time factor+1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 10:46: Jalen Holston run for no gain to the VTech 2 — VT win probability +2.7 pts (now 33%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:32: Riley Leonard pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 24 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +7.5 pts (now 74%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. MISSED FG · Q2 0:49: Todd Pelino 45 yd FG MISSED — VT win probability +3.0 pts (now 30%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:55: Riley Leonard run for 5 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +10.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:15: Riley Leonard pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for 6 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +10.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 8VT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 14:03DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:08DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:58VT 4th & 5 at DUKE 43, up 7
    Close callPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    28.4%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:04DUKE 4th & 5 at VT 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.3%
    90% to make
    Punt
    64.8%−3.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:42VT 4th & 1 at VT 44, up 4
    Close callPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:46VT 4th & 5 at VT 7, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:46DUKE 4th & 7 at VT 37, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    66.8%−0.5
    40% to make
    Punt
    66.7%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:11VT 4th & 11 at VT 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:49DUKE 4th & 11 at VT 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    66.6%−4.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:14VT 4th & 7 at VT 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:59VT 4th & 4 at DUKE 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    16.2%−0.4
    74% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−7.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:00DUKE 4th & 11 at DUKE 20, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:13VT 4th & 13 at VT 19, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−2.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00DUKE 4th & 5 at VT 24, up 10
    Close callWent for it · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    86.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    81.8%−4.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:24VT 4th & 4 at DUKE 42, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    2.8%−0.8
    30% to make
    Punt
    3.2%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:23DUKE 4th & 10 at VT 21, up 17
    Close callWent for it · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.8%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    98.0%
    74% to make
    Punt
    97.1%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3VT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 13:26VT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:32DUKE Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:55DUKE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:15DUKE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5375% → 75%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
75.2%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+5
75.2%
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the Duke 17Similar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 5
OWN 17
0
75.2%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q1 14:03
4TH & 5
OWN 17
0
75.0%
Porter Wilson punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VTech 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2TD
2 plays · 55 yds · 0:3725% → 26%
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
75.0%
Grant Wells pass complete to Keshawn King for 2 yds to the VTech 47Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+53
74.4%
Grant Wells pass complete to Da'Wain Lofton for 53 yds for a TD, (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 3:1875% → 73%
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
74.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 6 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-5
74.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Leonard,Riley pass complete deep right to Moore,Jordan for 17 yards to the DUKE48 (Delane,Mansoor; Hollifield,Dax) PENALTY DUKE Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Burns,Jack) 5 yards from DUKE31 to DUKE26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
74.5%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q1 13:26
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+13
74.4%
Riley Leonard run for 13 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
74.5%
Riley Leonard run for 1 yd to the Duke 40Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+2
74.5%
Jaquez Moore run for 2 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q1 13:26
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
74.5%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q1 10:08
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
72.7%
Porter Wilson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tucker Holloway at the VTech 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:1027% → 29%
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+22
72.7%
Grant Wells pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 22 yds to the VTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
72.4%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Nick GalloSimilar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+12
72.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Da'Wain Lofton for 12 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
72.3%
Keshawn King run for 1 yd to the Duke 47Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
72.3%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Da'Wain LoftonSimilar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+4
72.4%
Grant Wells pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 4 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q1 7:58
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
71.1%
Peter Moore punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5FG
10 plays · 72 yds · 5:5471% → 71%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
71.4%
Jaylen Coleman run for 2 yds to the Duke 22Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+13
71.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 13 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
71.5%
Jaylen Coleman run for 3 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
71.8%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for no gain to the Duke 38Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+18
71.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 18 yds to the VTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+31
72.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 31 yds to the VTech 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
72.4%
Jordan Waters run for no gain to the VTech 13Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
72.4%
Jordan Waters run for no gain to the VTech 13Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+5
72.1%
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the VTech 8Similar
Q1 2:04
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+25
70.7%
Todd Pelino 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2230% → 31%
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
69.9%
Chance Black run for 4 yds to the VTech 39Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
69.4%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Chance BlackSimilar
Q1 2:04
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+5
69.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Jalen Holston for 5 yds to the VTech 44Similar
Q1 0:42
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
69.5%
Peter Moore punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7INT
9 plays · 64 yds · 4:1469% → 70%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
69.2%
Jaquez Moore run for 5 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+10
69.4%
Jordan Waters run for 10 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+55
69.1%
Jordan Waters run for 65 yds DUKE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Sahmir Hagans) to the Duke 35Similar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
69.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 4 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
70.2%
Jaquez Moore run for no gain to the Duke 39Similar
Q2 14:14
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+6
69.1%
Riley Leonard run for 6 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+35
70.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 35 yds to the VTech 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
71.1%
Jaylen Coleman run for 4 yds to the VTech 16Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 6
OPP 16
0
70.1%
Riley Leonard pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:0033% → 32%
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
67.4%
Jalen Holston run for no gain to the VTech 2Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+1
67.5%
Grant Wells run for 1 yd to the VTech 3Similar
Q2 10:46
3RD & 9
OWN 3
+4
68.1%
Jalen Holston run for 4 yds to the VTech 7Similar
Q2 8:46
4TH & 5
OWN 7
+22
67.7%
Peter Moore punt for 55 yds , Jalon Calhoun returns for 22 yds to the VTech 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9TD
5 plays · 40 yds · 2:1469% → 74%
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
68.5%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+4
68.4%
Jaylen Coleman run for 4 yds to the VTech 36Similar
Q2 8:46
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+1
68.2%
Jaylen Coleman run for 1 yd to the VTech 37Similar
Q2 8:46
4TH & 7
OPP 37
+13
66.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for 13 yds to the VTech 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
74.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 24 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:2128% → 27%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
71.6%
Grant Wells run for 1 yd to the VTech 26Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
71.6%
Grant Wells pass complete to Jadan Blue for 6 yds to the VTech 32Similar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-8
71.5%
Grant Wells sacked by Brandon Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the VTech 24Similar
Q2 4:11
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
73.1%
Peter Moore punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11MISSED FG
8 plays · 29 yds · 3:2273% → 70%
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
73.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for 15 yds to the VTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
73.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaquez Moore for 3 yds to the VTech 39Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+6
73.9%
Jordan Waters run for 6 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+6
73.5%
Jordan Waters run for 6 yds to the VTech 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
74.3%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the VTech 28Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 11
OPP 28
0
74.2%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 11
OPP 28
0
73.1%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q2 0:49
4TH & 11
OPP 28
+45
70.1%
Todd Pelino 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12MISSED FG
11 plays · 40 yds · 0:4829% → 30%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
70.6%
Jalen Holston run for 10 yds to the VTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
69.6%
Jalen Holston run for 4 yds to the VTech 42Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
69.1%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Nick GalloSimilar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+7
69.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Jalen Holston for 7 yds to the VTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
70.7%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Jalen HolstonSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+9
71.1%
Grant Wells run for 9 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+10
70.0%
Grant Wells pass complete to Nick Gallo for 10 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+50
69.8%
John Love 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
71.0%
Kneel down by Duke at DUKE31 for loss of 1 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 1:4629% → 29%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
70.7%
Jalen Holston run for 6 yds to the VTech 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
69.6%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Da'Wain LoftonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
70.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 4 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
70.0%
Grant Wells pass complete to Tucker Holloway for 3 yds to the VTech 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
69.0%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Da'Wain LoftonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
70.0%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Kaleb SmithSimilar
Q3 13:14
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+7
71.3%
Peter Moore punt for 31 yds , Sahmir Hagans returns for 7 yds to the Duke 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15TD
12 plays · 62 yds · 5:1973% → 85%
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
72.8%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 4 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
73.6%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q3 13:14
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+15
72.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 15 yds to the VTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
74.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 3 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+14
74.2%
Jordan Waters run for 14 yds to the VTech 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
74.8%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 7 yds to the VTech 19Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+3
74.8%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the VTech 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-10
74.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Waters,Jordan rush left for 6 yards gain to the VT10 (Hollifield,Dax; Peoples,Nasir) PENALTY DUKE Holding (Foley,Brian) 10 yards from VT16 to VT26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 20
OPP 26
0
74.4%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 20
OPP 26
+19
73.8%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for 19 yds to the VTech 7Similar
Q3 13:14
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+2
73.8%
Jaylen Coleman run for 2 yds to the VTech 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
84.6%
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 16DOWNS
10 plays · 52 yds · 3:4918% → 17%
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
82.3%
Keshawn King run for 9 yds to the VTech 36Similar
Q3 7:48
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+10
81.3%
Keshawn King run for 10 yds to the VTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
81.1%
Keshawn King run for 2 yds to the VTech 48Similar
Q3 7:48
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+15
81.1%
Grant Wells run for 15 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
80.6%
Grant Wells pass complete to Da'Wain Lofton for 10 yds to the Duke 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
79.3%
Grant Wells run for 2 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q3 7:48
2ND & 12
OPP 29
+5
79.8%
Jalen Holston run for 5 yds to the Duke 24Similar
Q3 7:48
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+3
80.8%
Grant Wells run for 3 yds to the Duke 21Similar
Q3 3:59
4TH & 4
OPP 21
0
83.0%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Kaleb SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5985% → 83%
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
84.6%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jordan WatersSimilar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+1
84.5%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the Duke 20Similar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 11
OWN 20
0
83.5%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q3 3:00
4TH & 11
OWN 20
0
83.0%
Porter Wilson punt for 58 yds, fair catch by Tucker Holloway at the VTech 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:4716% → 14%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
84.1%
Keshawn King run for 4 yds to the VTech 26Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+1
83.6%
Keshawn King run for 1 yd to the VTech 27Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 5
OWN 27
-8
84.4%
Grant Wells sacked by Brandon Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the VTech 19Similar
Q3 1:13
4TH & 13
OWN 19
0
86.5%
Peter Moore punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 4:5887% → 97%
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
87.1%
Jaylen Coleman run for 11 yds to the VTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
87.8%
Riley Leonard run for 9 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+11
88.0%
Jaylen Coleman run for 11 yds to the VTech 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
88.1%
Jaylen Coleman run for 2 yds to the VTech 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+3
88.1%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the VTech 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 24
0
87.4%
Jordan Waters run for no gain to the VTech 24Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+18
86.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 18 yds to the VTech 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
96.8%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for 6 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 20INT
7 plays · 33 yds · 1:474% → 4%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
96.1%
Grant Wells pass complete to Tucker Holloway for 7 yds to the VTech 32Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+20
95.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Jalen Holston for 20 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
95.8%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Jalen HolstonSimilar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
95.8%
Grant Wells pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+6
95.9%
Jalen Holston run for 6 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q4 9:24
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
96.3%
Grant Wells pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21DOWNS
12 plays · 50 yds · 7:0197% → 98%
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
96.8%
Jaylen Coleman run for 2 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+6
96.7%
Jaylen Coleman run for 6 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q4 9:24
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+5
96.9%
Jordan Waters run for 5 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
97.0%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+4
96.9%
Jordan Waters run for 4 yds to the VTech 49Similar
Q4 9:24
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+28
96.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for 28 yds to the VTech 21 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jalen Holston) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
97.0%
Riley Leonard run for 1 yd to the VTech 20Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 9
OPP 20
-5
97.0%
PENALTY DUKE False Start (Calhoun,Jalon) 5 yards from VT20 to VT25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 14
OPP 25
+1
96.9%
Jaylen Coleman run for 1 yd to the VTech 24Similar
Q4 9:24
3RD & 13
OPP 24
+3
96.8%
Jaylen Coleman run for 3 yds to the VTech 21Similar
Q4 2:23
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+3
98.3%
Riley Leonard run for 3 yds to the VTech 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22END OF GAME
6 plays · 39 yds · 2:232% → 2%
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
97.9%
Bryce Duke run for 6 yds to the VTech 24Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+12
97.8%
Bryce Duke run for 12 yds to the VTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
97.7%
Grant Wells pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 4 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+2
97.7%
Chance Black run for 2 yds to the VTech 42Similar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+8
97.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Tucker Holloway for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
50
+7
97.8%
Chance Black run for 7 yds to the Duke 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:55
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK)
+10.8
TD · Q4 11:15
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for 6 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK)
+10.3
TD · Q2 6:32
Riley Leonard pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 24 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK)
+7.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com