Try the model
FSU

Florida State 45 at Miami 3

MIA
2022 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2022 · Hard Rock Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:13 · Alex Mastromanno punt for 38 yds, downed at the MiaFl 3
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.5+29.80−29.8−59.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 98Home team on offense−40.8Score differential−22.3Pregame prior−6.5Garbage-time factor−11.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.8
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 9:16: Andres Borregales 49 yd FG GOOD — MIA win probability +0.7 pts (now 35%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 4:51: Jordan Travis pass complete to DJ Lundy for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +2.5 pts (now 68%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 12:11: Trey Benson run for 13 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +8.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 5:13: Trey Benson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +10.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q2 0:00: Ryan Fitzgerald 41 yd FG GOOD — MIA win probability +1.1 pts (now 5%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7FSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:16MIA 4th & 9 at FSU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    34.9%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:37MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:34MIA 4th & 2 at MIA 10, down 11
    Close callPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:30MIA 4th & 4 at MIA 31, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:34FSU 4th & 7 at MIA 39, up 18
    Close callPunted · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    79.0%−0.8
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:52MIA 4th & 20 at MIA 33, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−2.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00FSU 4th & 19 at MIA 23, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%−1.2
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    91.9%−2.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:48MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 30, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:13FSU 4th & 17 at MIA 41, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    97.0%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:42MIA 4th & 8 at MIA 19, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:10FSU 4th & 4 at MIA 26, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−<0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 13:22FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:51FSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:11FSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:13FSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:55FSU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:36FSU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FSUDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1566% → 66%
Q1 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
33.8%
Lawrance Toafili run for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+4
34.0%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 4 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+15
34.3%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
34.1%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Leonard Taylor) to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 5
OWN 44
+56
33.6%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 56 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2FG
12 plays · 45 yds · 3:2834% → 35%
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
33.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Brashard Smith for 4 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
33.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 5 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q1 11:49
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
34.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
34.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 10 yds to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
34.3%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Jarrian Jones) to the FlaSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
34.4%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+18
34.2%
Jacurri Brown run for 18 yds to the FlaSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
34.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Colbie YoungSimilar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+1
34.7%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 9
OPP 30
0
34.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Xavier RestrepoSimilar
Q1 9:16
4TH & 9
OPP 30
+49
35.3%
Andres Borregales 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:1265% → 68%
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+42
35.2%
Trey Benson run for 42 yds to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
34.5%
Trey Benson run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 2
OPP 25
-8
34.5%
Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 23 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Robert Scott Jr.) to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+14
34.6%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Markeston Douglas for 14 yds to the MiaFl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
34.6%
Lawrance Toafili run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 16Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 7
OPP 16
-2
34.7%
Deuce Spann run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q1 6:07
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+15
35.2%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the MiaFl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
34.8%
Jordan Travis run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q1 5:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
34.8%
Trey Benson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 2Similar
Q1 4:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
32.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to DJ Lundy for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:0533% → 31%
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
33.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 5 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
33.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q1 3:34
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
32.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q1 2:51
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-4
32.0%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Delay of Game (-4 Yards) to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q1 2:37
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+6
31.4%
Lou Hedley punt for 52 yds , Mycah Pittman returns for 6 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5INT
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:3568% → 69%
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
32.5%
Lawrance Toafili run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+5
32.1%
Lawrance Toafili run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
32.2%
Jordan Travis run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
31.4%
Lawrance Toafili run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q1 0:37
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+1
31.3%
Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:06
3RD & 5
50
+7
31.1%
Jordan Travis run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
30.9%
Trey Benson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 12
OPP 45
0
31.0%
Jordan Travis pass intercepted DJ Ivey return for no gain to the MiaFl 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:4131% → 30%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
31.3%
Lucious Stanley run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 5Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 7
OWN 5
0
31.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:52
3RD & 7
OWN 5
+5
30.4%
Jacurri Brown run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 10Similar
Q2 13:34
4TH & 2
OWN 10
0
30.2%
Lou Hedley punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7TD
3 plays · 39 yds · 0:5870% → 79%
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+21
29.6%
Trey Benson run for 21 yds to the MiaFl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
29.3%
Trey Benson run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 13Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+13
20.8%
Trey Benson run for 13 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5924% → 23%
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
23.8%
Tyler Van Dyke sacked by Fabien Lovett for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
23.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+13
23.0%
Jake Garcia run for 13 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q2 10:30
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
23.1%
Lou Hedley punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Mycah Pittman at the FlaSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 38 yds · 2:3980% → 80%
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+18
20.2%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 18 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+17
19.5%
Lawrance Toafili run for 17 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
19.1%
Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+2
18.9%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 2 yds to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q2 8:02
3RD & 6
OPP 38
-1
19.6%
Lawrance Toafili run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q2 7:34
4TH & 7
OPP 39
0
19.9%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 37 yds, downed at the MiaFl 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 1:0822% → 21%
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
21.9%
Lucious Stanley run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 4Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+3
21.2%
Jacurri Brown run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 7Similar
Q2 6:08
3RD & 5
OWN 7
-10
21.0%
Jake Garcia pass intercepted Greedy Vance return for 10 yds to the MiaFl 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11TD
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:4583% → 94%
Q2 5:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
16.8%
Trey Benson run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
16.7%
Trey Benson run for no gain to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q2 5:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
6.4%
Trey Benson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 8 yds · 2:548% → 6%
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
8.2%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Brashard Smith for 1 yd to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
7.4%
Jacurri Brown run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q2 3:46
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
7.2%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 15 yds to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
7.4%
Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
7.2%
Jaylan Knighton run for no gain to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q2 2:01
3RD & 8
OWN 45
-12
7.0%
Jacurri Brown sacked by Jared Verse for a loss of 12 yards to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q2 1:52
4TH & 20
OWN 33
0
5.5%
Lou Hedley punt for 49 yds, downed at the FlaSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13END OF HALF
7 plays · 59 yds · 1:5094% → 95%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
5.6%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Robert Scott Jr.) to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 15
OWN 13
+8
5.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 8 yds to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+65
5.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 65 yds to the MiaFl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
5.4%
Lawrance Toafili run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 11
OPP 15
0
4.6%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Malik McClainSimilar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 11
OPP 15
-8
4.3%
Jordan Travis sacked by Jordan Miller and Mitchell Agude for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 19
OPP 23
+41
5.3%
Ryan Fitzgerald 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 1:594% → 3%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
3.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
4.6%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-5
2.7%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Jared Griffith) to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q3 13:14
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+3
2.8%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 3 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q3 12:48
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
2.5%
Lou Hedley punt for 47 yds, downed at the FlaSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 4:2496% → 97%
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+25
4.0%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Trey Benson for 25 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
3.3%
Trey Benson run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 8
50
+6
3.2%
Lawrance Toafili run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+10
2.8%
Jordan Travis run for 10 yds to the MiaFl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
3.0%
Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 9
OPP 33
-15
2.6%
Jordan Travis sacked by Caleb Johnson and Jordan Miller for a loss of 15 yards to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 24
OPP 48
+7
2.6%
Lawrance Toafili run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q3 8:13
4TH & 17
OPP 41
0
2.8%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 38 yds, downed at the MiaFl 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16FUMBLE
13 plays · 68 yds · 5:532% → 1%
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
1.8%
Jacurri Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+45
1.7%
Jaylan Knighton run for 45 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
1.8%
Jaylan Knighton run for 13 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
1.7%
Jacurri Brown run for 15 yds to the FlaSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
1.7%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 7 yds to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+5
1.4%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
1.4%
Jacurri Brown run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 7Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+2
1.2%
Jacurri Brown run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 5Similar
Q3 3:48
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+3
1.1%
Jacurri Brown run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
1.2%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q3 2:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
1.0%
Jacurri Brown run for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 6Similar
Q3 2:13
3RD & 0
OPP 6
+10
0.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 23 yards to the FlaSt 39 TEAM fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Jared Verse , return for 10 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 2:0498% → 99%
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
1.6%
Jordan Travis run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q3 1:51
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+5
1.6%
Trey Benson run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q3 0:10
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+39
0.7%
Trey Benson run for 26 yds to the MIAMI 26 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Face Mask (13 yards) (13 Yards) to the MiaFl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
0.7%
Lawrance Toafili run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 8Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+8
0.6%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Camren McDonald for 8 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18FUMBLE
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:040% → 0%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
0.3%
Jacurri Brown run for 13 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
0.3%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Jacolby George for 11 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
0.3%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Colbie Young for 1 yd to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 9
OWN 48
-5
0.2%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 14
OWN 43
+12
0.2%
Jacurri Brown run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+3
0.2%
Jacurri Brown run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
0.2%
Jacurri Brown sacked by Patrick Payton for a loss of 10 yards to the MiaFl 48 Jacurri Brown fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Malcolm Ray , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -18 yds · 1:15100% → 100%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
0.4%
Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
0.3%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:16
3RD & 8
OPP 46
-20
0.3%
Tate Rodemaker sacked by Nyjalik Kelly for a loss of 5 yards to the MIAMI 49 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Deuce Spann) to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 28
OWN 34
0
0.3%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jacolby George at the MiaFl 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:580% → 0%
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
0.1%
Jacurri Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+2
0.1%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q4 8:53
3RD & 8
OWN 19
0
0.1%
Jacurri Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:42
4TH & 8
OWN 19
0
0.1%
Lou Hedley punt for 59 yds, downed at the FlaSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21TD
13 plays · 78 yds · 6:34100% → 100%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
0.3%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Deuce Spann for 8 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+22
0.2%
Tate Rodemaker run for 22 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
0.2%
CJ Campbell run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+15
0.2%
CJ Campbell run for 15 yds to the MiaFl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
0.2%
CJ Campbell run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 6
OPP 28
-1
0.2%
CJ Campbell run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q4 3:27
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+3
0.1%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to CJ Campbell for 3 yds to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q4 3:10
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+12
0.2%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Brian Courtney for 12 yds to the MiaFl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
0.1%
CJ Campbell run for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 15
OPP 19
+5
0.1%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive Offside (Ahmad Moten) to the MiaFl 14Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+5
0.1%
CJ Campbell run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 9Similar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+6
0.1%
CJ Campbell run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
0.1%
CJ Campbell run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:180% → 0%
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
0.0%
Terrell Walden II run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 16Similar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 8
OWN 16
0
0.0%
Jacurri Brown pass intercepted Azareye'h Thomas return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 23END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
50
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:13
Trey Benson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
-10.2
TD · Q2 12:11
Trey Benson run for 13 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
-8.6
TD · Q1 4:51
Jordan Travis pass complete to DJ Lundy for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
-2.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com