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DUKE

Duke 38 at Boston College 31

BC
2022 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2022 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:01 · TEAM run for 1 yd to the Duke 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:59: Jaquez Moore run for 24 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +9.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:31: Emmett Morehead pass complete to Zay Flowers for 18 yds for a TD, (Connor Lytton KICK) — BC win probability +9.1 pts (now 23%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:51: Jaquez Moore run for 2 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +10.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:07: Emmett Morehead pass complete to Joseph Griffin Jr. for 26 yds for a TD, (Connor Lytton KICK) — BC win probability +14.4 pts (now 23%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:17: Connor Lytton 34 yd FG GOOD — BC win probability +11.1 pts (now 16%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 8 of 10DUKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 11:10BC 4th & 8 at BC 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:21DUKE 4th & 15 at DUKE 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:07DUKE 4th & 5 at BC 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    69.8%−1.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:08BC 4th & 10 at BC 11, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−0.7
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:13BC 4th & 3 at BC 17, down 10
    Close callPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:37DUKE 4th & 3 at BC 44, up 10
    Close callPunted · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    75.5%−0.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    75.9%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:19BC 4th & 2 at BC 13, down 10
    Close callPunted · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:24BC 4th & 9 at BC 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:42BC 4th & 5 at BC 14, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:14DUKE 4th & 15 at BC 48, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%−1.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:53BC 4th & 4 at DUKE 46, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    11.8%−1.8
    23% to make
    Punt
    13.1%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:27BC 4th & 1 at DUKE 35, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    5.9%−2.7
    45% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−3.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:20DUKE 4th & 13 at DUKE 38, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%−2.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:13BC 4th & 21 at BC 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−2.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:10DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:50BC 4th & 4 at DUKE 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.1%−0.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:44DUKE 4th & 11 at BC 45, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    92.0%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 3 of 4DUKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:03DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:06BC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:15DUKE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:16DUKE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:50BC Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:59DUKE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:31BC Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:51DUKE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:07BC Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1TD
8 plays · 90 yds · 2:4774% → 74%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
26.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 8 yds to the Duke 18Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 2
OWN 18
-5
26.4%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Duke 13Similar
Q1 13:57
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+13
26.7%
Jordan Waters run for 13 yds to the Duke 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
26.9%
Jordan Waters run for 9 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+5
27.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Waters for 5 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
27.3%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q1 12:03
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+60
26.5%
Riley Leonard run for 60 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4227% → 27%
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
26.7%
Pat Garwo III run for 2 yds to the BC 24Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
26.8%
Emmett Morehead pass incomplete to George TakacsSimilar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 8
OWN 24
0
26.7%
Emmett Morehead pass incomplete to Joseph Griffin Jr.Similar
Q1 11:10
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
26.6%
Sam Candotti punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:4573% → 73%
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
26.7%
Jordan Waters run for no gain to the Duke 33Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
26.8%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Nicky DalmolinSimilar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
27.0%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q1 10:28
4TH & 10
OWN 33
-5
27.1%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Duke 28Similar
Q1 10:21
4TH & 15
OWN 28
0
27.2%
Porter Wilson punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BC 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 4TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 2:0727% → 30%
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+22
27.1%
Alex Broome run for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
50
+5
27.6%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Alex Broome for 5 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+36
27.8%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Joseph Griffin Jr. for 36 yds to the Duke 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
27.9%
Alex Broome run for no gain to the Duke 9Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
28.2%
Emmett Morehead pass incomplete to Zay FlowersSimilar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 0
OPP 9
+7
27.9%
Morehead, Emmett pass incomplete to Griffin Jr., Joseph, PENALTY DUKE pass interference 7 yards to the DUKE2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOSTONCOLL.Similar
Q1 8:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
30.3%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Zay Flowers for 2 yds for a TD, (Connor Lytton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5FG
10 plays · 53 yds · 3:5471% → 70%
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
29.4%
Riley Leonard run for 2 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+27
29.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 27 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
29.1%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Nicky DalmolinSimilar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
29.3%
Jaquez Moore run for 5 yds to the BC 41Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+14
29.6%
Jaquez Moore run for 14 yds to the BC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
29.4%
Jordan Waters run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 28Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 11
OPP 28
+6
29.8%
Jordan Waters run for 6 yds to the BC 22Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 5
OPP 22
0
30.2%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q1 4:07
4TH & 5
OPP 22
+39
30.3%
Todd Pelino 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:4630% → 30%
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
30.1%
Pat Garwo III run for 3 yds to the BC 14Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+2
30.3%
Pat Garwo III run for 2 yds to the BC 16Similar
Q1 2:56
3RD & 5
OWN 16
-5
30.0%
Emmett Morehead sacked by DeWayne Carter for a loss of 5 yards to the BC 11Similar
Q1 2:08
4TH & 10
OWN 11
0
30.0%
Danny Longman punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the Duke 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7TD
11 plays · 51 yds · 5:4770% → 74%
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
30.0%
Terry Moore run for 4 yds to the BC 47Similar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+8
30.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 8 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
30.3%
Riley Leonard run for 4 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q1 0:14
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+5
30.0%
Jordan Waters run for 5 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+2
30.1%
Jaquez Moore run for 2 yds to the BC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
29.8%
Jaquez Moore run for 4 yds to the BC 24Similar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+12
30.0%
Riley Leonard run for 12 yds to the BC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
30.1%
Riley Leonard run for no gain to the BC 12Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+5
30.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 5 yds to the BC 7Similar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+7
25.7%
Jordan Waters run for 7 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:3726% → 25%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-4
26.1%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Zay Flowers for 2 yds to the BC 12 BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-6 Yards) to the BC 6Similar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 14
OWN 6
+4
26.0%
Pat Garwo III run for 4 yds to the BC 10Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
25.8%
Emmett Morehead pass incomplete to Zay FlowersSimilar
Q2 9:47
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+7
25.3%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Alex Broome for 7 yds to the BC 17Similar
Q2 9:13
4TH & 3
OWN 17
0
25.3%
Danny Longman punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the Duke 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2674% → 75%
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
25.8%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 6 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+1
25.6%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the BC 44Similar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 3
OPP 44
0
24.3%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q2 7:37
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
24.8%
Porter Wilson punt for 39 yds, downed at the BC 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1225% → 25%
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
25.3%
Alex Broome run for 5 yds to the BC 10Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+3
25.4%
Alex Broome run for 3 yds to the BC 13Similar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 2
OWN 13
0
25.0%
Emmett Morehead pass incomplete to Zay FlowersSimilar
Q2 6:19
4TH & 2
OWN 13
0
24.6%
Sam Candotti punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the Duke 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11TD
4 plays · 51 yds · 1:5876% → 85%
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
24.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 16 yds to the BC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
23.7%
Jordan Waters run for 4 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+23
23.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaquez Moore for 23 yds to the BC 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
15.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 8 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 12TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:1519% → 27%
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
18.5%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Alex Broome for 9 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
19.1%
Alex Broome run for 5 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
19.2%
Emmett Morehead pass incomplete to Joseph Griffin Jr.Similar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+24
18.7%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to George Takacs for 24 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
19.4%
Alex Broome run for 3 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+4
20.1%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Alex Broome for 4 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+10
19.4%
Alex Broome run for 10 yds to the Duke 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
19.6%
Emmett Morehead pass incomplete to Zay FlowersSimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+5
19.3%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Duke 15Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+13
19.4%
Morehead, Emmett pass incomplete to Flowers, Zay, PENALTY DUKE pass interference (Rivers, Chandler) 13 yards to the DUKE2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOSTONCOLL.Similar
Q2 0:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
27.0%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Joseph Griffin Jr. for 2 yds for a TD, (Connor Lytton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13END OF HALF
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:1076% → 78%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
23.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Waters for 1 yd to the Duke 31Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+9
23.8%
Leonard, Riley pass incomplete to Moore, Jaquez, PENALTY BOSTONCOLL pass interference (Steele, Bryce) 9 yards to the DUKE40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN DUKE.Similar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-4
22.4%
Riley Leonard sacked by Neto Okpala for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3124% → 22%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
23.9%
Alex Broome run for 2 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-1
24.0%
Alex Broome run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 26Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
22.6%
Emmett Morehead pass incomplete to Jaelen GillSimilar
Q3 13:24
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
22.1%
Sam Candotti punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the Duke 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 3:2177% → 88%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
23.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 4 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+1
22.2%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the Duke 42Similar
Q3 11:57
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+19
22.4%
Riley Leonard run for 19 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+16
22.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 16 yds to the BC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
21.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 24Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+24
12.1%
Jaquez Moore run for 24 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:0314% → 13%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
13.5%
Pat Garwo III run for 2 yds to the BC 11Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 8
OWN 11
-5
13.5%
Emmett Morehead sacked by DeWayne Carter for a loss of 5 yards to the BC 6Similar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 13
OWN 6
+8
13.0%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to George Takacs for 8 yds to the BC 14Similar
Q3 7:42
4TH & 5
OWN 14
0
12.9%
Danny Longman punt for 29 yds, downed at the BC 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:2389% → 88%
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-15
11.2%
Leonard, Riley pass incomplete to Finney, Cole, PENALTY DUKE pass interference 15 yards to the DUKE42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 25
OWN 42
+4
11.6%
Riley Leonard run for 4 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 21
OWN 46
0
11.4%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Malik Bowen-SimsSimilar
Q3 6:46
3RD & 21
OWN 46
+6
11.2%
Jordan Waters run for 6 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q3 6:14
4TH & 15
OPP 48
0
11.8%
Porter Wilson punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:3513% → 24%
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+28
12.8%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Zay Flowers for 28 yds Zay Flowers fumbled, recovered by BC Zay Flowers for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
14.2%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Zay Flowers for 6 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 4
OPP 46
0
14.5%
Alex Broome run for no gain to the Duke 46Similar
Q3 4:58
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
13.9%
Emmett Morehead pass incomplete to Alex BroomeSimilar
Q3 4:53
4TH & 4
OPP 46
+26
13.5%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Joseph Griffin Jr. for 26 yds to the Duke 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
14.6%
Emmett Morehead sacked by Darius Joiner for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 22Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+4
14.0%
Pat Garwo III run for 4 yds to the Duke 18Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+18
23.1%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Zay Flowers for 18 yds for a TD, (Connor Lytton KICK)Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 0
OPP 3
-5
24.3%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, False Start (Jack Funke) to the Duke 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19TD
9 plays · 50 yds · 3:3482% → 93%
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
50
0
18.3%
Jaquez Moore run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 10
50
+5
18.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 5 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q3 2:23
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+6
18.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 6 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+21
18.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 21 yds to the BC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
17.2%
Riley Leonard run for 8 yds to the BC 10Similar
Q3 0:36
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+7
17.1%
Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds to the BC 7 for a 1ST down BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Personal Foul (4 Yards) to the BC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
16.9%
Jaquez Moore run for 1 yd to the BC 2Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
6.6%
Jaquez Moore run for 2 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4010% → 23%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
9.6%
Emmett Morehead pass incomplete to George TakacsSimilar
Q4 14:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+31
9.3%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Dino Tomlin for 31 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
9.8%
Pat Garwo III run for 3 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+5
8.8%
Emmett Morehead run for 5 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+1
9.0%
Pat Garwo III run for 1 yd to the Duke 35Similar
Q4 12:27
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+9
8.9%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Dino Tomlin for 9 yds to the Duke 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
23.3%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Joseph Griffin Jr. for 26 yds for a TD, (Connor Lytton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 3:4383% → 86%
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
17.4%
Riley Leonard run for 2 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+14
17.0%
Jaquez Moore run for 14 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
14.5%
Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+1
12.6%
Jaquez Moore run for 1 yd to the Duke 45Similar
Q4 9:12
3RD & 6
OWN 45
-7
12.7%
Riley Leonard sacked by Donovan Ezeiruaku for a loss of 7 yards to the Duke 38 Riley Leonard fumbled, recovered by Duke Graham Barton , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 8:20
4TH & 13
OWN 38
0
14.3%
Porter Wilson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jaelen Gill at the BC 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:0013% → 10%
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
13.4%
Pat Garwo III run for 11 yds to the BC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
13.9%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Pat Garwo III for 8 yds to the BC 41Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+5
15.2%
Emmett Morehead run for 5 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
14.6%
Emmett Morehead pass incomplete to Zay FlowersSimilar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
14.0%
Emmett Morehead pass incomplete to Jaelen GillSimilar
Q4 6:51
3RD & 10
OWN 46
-11
13.2%
Emmett Morehead sacked by Shaka Heyward for a loss of 11 yards to the BC 35Similar
Q4 6:13
4TH & 21
OWN 35
0
10.1%
Danny Longman punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the Duke 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5889% → 90%
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
10.9%
Jaquez Moore run for 2 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
10.7%
Jaquez Moore run for 4 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
10.0%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q4 5:10
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
9.9%
Porter Wilson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jaelen Gill at the BC 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 24DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:179% → 10%
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
9.1%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Zay Flowers for 9 yds to the BC 32Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 1
OWN 32
0
10.3%
Emmett Morehead pass incomplete to Pat Garwo IIISimilar
Q4 4:36
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+15
9.9%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Pat Garwo III for 15 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
10.8%
Emmett Morehead pass incomplete to Zay FlowersSimilar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
10.5%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to George Takacs for 6 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 4
OPP 47
0
11.3%
Emmett Morehead pass incomplete to Pat Garwo IIISimilar
Q4 3:50
4TH & 4
OPP 47
-9
9.9%
Emmett Morehead sacked by Darius Joiner for a loss of 9 yards to the BC 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:0092% → 94%
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
8.2%
Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds to the BC 41Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 7
OPP 41
-1
7.9%
Riley Leonard run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 42Similar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 8
OPP 42
-3
7.6%
Riley Leonard run for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 45Similar
Q4 2:44
4TH & 11
OPP 45
+2
6.2%
Porter Wilson punt for 29 yds , Jaelen Gill returns for 2 yds to the BC 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 26FG
12 plays · 65 yds · 2:244% → 16%
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
3.7%
Emmett Morehead pass incomplete to George TakacsSimilar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+13
3.6%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Joseph Griffin Jr. for 13 yds to the BC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
3.9%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Pat Garwo III for 11 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
4.0%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 6 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+9
3.6%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 9 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
3.5%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Pat Garwo III for 6 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 4
OPP 37
0
3.7%
Emmett Morehead pass incomplete to Pat Garwo IIISimilar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+7
3.6%
Emmett Morehead run for 7 yds to the Duke 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
4.3%
Emmett Morehead run for 9 yds to the Duke 21Similar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+4
4.4%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Pat Garwo III for 4 yds to the Duke 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
4.5%
Emmett Morehead pass incomplete to George TakacsSimilar
Q4 0:17
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+34
15.7%
Connor Lytton 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
4.2%
TEAM run for 1 yd to the Duke 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:07
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Joseph Griffin Jr. for 26 yds for a TD, (Connor Lytton KICK)
+14.4
FG · Q4 0:17
Connor Lytton 34 yd FG GOOD
+11.1
TD · Q4 14:51
Jaquez Moore run for 2 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK)
-10.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com