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PITT

Pittsburgh 24 at North Carolina 42

UNC
2022 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2022 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:02 · Cam Guess punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 79Home team on offense−3.8Pregame prior+7.0Score differential−2.2Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:33: Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 1 yd for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +11.8 pts (now 60%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q3 10:07: Israel Abanikanda run for 22 yds for a TD, (Ben Sauls KICK) — PITT win probability +17.1 pts (now 65%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:05: Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 13 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +20.8 pts (now 58%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 14:07: Elijah Green run for 2 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +19.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:46: Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 25 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +13.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 7 of 7PITT made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 9:49UNC 4th & 2 at UNC 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:53PITT 4th & 2 at PITT 14, up 7
    Close callPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:45UNC 4th & 1 at PITT 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    54.8%−0.6
    87% to make
    Punt
    52.9%−2.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:14PITT 4th & 5 at PITT 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:47UNC 4th & 13 at UNC 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:46UNC 4th & 10 at UNC 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:14PITT 4th & 9 at UNC 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    50.1%−4.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:02PITT 4th & 2 at PITT 33, up 3
    Close callPunted · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.9%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:33UNC 4th & 4 at PITT 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    53.7%−<0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    52.4%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:10PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:51UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%−1.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:55UNC 4th & 5 at PITT 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    32.6%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    26.2%−6.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:04PITT 4th & 19 at PITT 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%−6.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:20PITT 4th & 10 at PITT 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:25PITT 4th & 6 at PITT 44, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 6 of 6PITT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:30PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:46UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:20PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:33UNC Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:07PITT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:05UNC Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:07UNC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:46UNC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:07UNC Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 3:1537% → 39%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
63.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Bub Means for 6 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 4
OWN 29
0
63.2%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Vincent DavisSimilar
Q1 13:46
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+40
63.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Bub Means for 40 yds to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
63.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jared Wayne for 8 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+10
62.9%
Israel Abanikanda run for 10 yds to the NCaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
62.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+7
62.7%
Israel Abanikanda run for 7 yds to the NCaro 6Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+6
61.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 6 yds for a TD, (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3362% → 61%
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
61.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kamari Morales for 8 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-3
62.0%
Caleb Hood run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 30Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
61.4%
Drake Maye run for 3 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q1 9:49
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-11
61.1%
Ben Kiernan punt for 50 yds , M.J. Devonshire returns for a loss of 11 yards to the Pitt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5039% → 39%
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
61.2%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 10
OWN 6
0
61.2%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
Q1 9:24
3RD & 10
OWN 6
+8
61.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 8 yds to the Pitt 14Similar
Q1 8:53
4TH & 2
OWN 14
0
60.9%
Cam Guess punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Josh Downs at the NCaro 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4TD
11 plays · 59 yds · 3:5461% → 64%
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
60.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Caleb Hood for 3 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+7
60.8%
Elijah Green run for 7 yds to the Pitt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
61.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 8 yds to the Pitt 41Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+6
60.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to John Copenhaver for 6 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
61.1%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Pitt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
61.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to John Copenhaver for 8 yds to the Pitt 12Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+1
60.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Elijah Green for 1 yd to the Pitt 11Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 1
OPP 11
0
60.4%
Elijah Green run for no gain to the Pitt 11Similar
Q1 5:45
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+3
59.9%
Drake Maye run for 3 yds to the Pitt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-8
60.6%
Drake Maye sacked by Deslin Alexandre for a loss of 8 yards to the Pitt 16Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 0
OPP 16
+16
64.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 16 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 2:1638% → 38%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
62.4%
Israel Abanikanda run for 9 yds to the Pitt 33Similar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 1
OWN 33
0
61.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+1
62.0%
Israel Abanikanda run for 1 yd to the Pitt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
62.0%
Israel Abanikanda run for no gain to the Pitt 34Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
61.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
Q1 2:21
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
62.2%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Myles AlstonSimilar
Q1 2:14
4TH & 10
OWN 34
+5
62.5%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Running Into Kicker (5 Yards) to the Pitt 39Similar
Q1 2:14
4TH & 5
OWN 39
+53
62.0%
Caleb Junko punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Josh Downs at the UNC 15 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (7 Yards) to the NCaro 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:0362% → 61%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
62.4%
Elijah Green run for 2 yds to the NCaro 10Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+12
62.4%
Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 12 yds to the NCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
62.5%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:04
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
62.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for no gain to the NCaro 22Similar
Q1 0:18
3RD & 10
OWN 22
-3
61.8%
Drake Maye sacked by Tyler Bentley for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 19Similar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 13
OWN 19
+26
61.3%
Ben Kiernan punt for 52 yds , M.J. Devonshire returns for 26 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7TD
4 plays · 45 yds · 1:2140% → 46%
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
59.9%
Israel Abanikanda run for no gain to the NCaro 45Similar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+41
59.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jared Wayne for 41 yds to the NCaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
53.1%
Israel Abanikanda run for 4 yds for a TD, (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
54.4%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:2555% → 53%
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
55.3%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+15
55.2%
Drake Maye pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 15 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
55.7%
Omarion Hampton run for 5 yds to the NCaro 43 Omarion Hampton fumbled, recovered by NCaroSimilar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+3
56.5%
Elijah Green run for 3 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 2
OWN 46
-10
55.9%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NCaro 36Similar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 12
OWN 36
+2
54.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 2 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q2 10:46
4TH & 10
OWN 38
-2
53.2%
Ben Kiernan punt for 44 yds , M.J. Devonshire returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 36 PITTSBURGH Penalty, Illegal Block (8 Yards) to the Pitt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 5:2246% → 54%
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
54.0%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 1 yd to the Pitt 9Similar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+21
53.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jared Wayne for 21 yds to the Pitt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
52.2%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 9 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+4
50.6%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 4 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
49.0%
Israel Abanikanda run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 41Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+29
49.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jared Wayne for 29 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
47.4%
Israel Abanikanda run for 2 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
46.8%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 8
OPP 28
-5
47.5%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 33Similar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 13
OPP 33
+4
47.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 4 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q2 5:14
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+47
46.2%
Ben Sauls 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3646% → 60%
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.9%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+18
45.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 18 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+50
46.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 50 yds to the Pitt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
48.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 6 yds to the Pitt 1Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
60.4%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 1 yd for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:1845% → 47%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
55.3%
Israel Abanikanda run for 3 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
54.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for 6 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
53.4%
Israel Abanikanda run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 33Similar
Q2 2:02
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
53.5%
Cam Guess punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12DOWNS
5 plays · 30 yds · 1:0554% → 55%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+24
54.3%
Drake Maye run for 9 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, Targeting (Calijah Kancey) to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
57.7%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+1
57.4%
Drake Maye run for 1 yd to the Pitt 44Similar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+5
56.2%
Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 5 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 4
OPP 39
0
55.2%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:1850% → 47%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
50.2%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Israel AbanikandaSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
50.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Israel AbanikandaSimilar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+3
51.8%
Israel Abanikanda run for 3 yds to the Pitt 42Similar
Q2 0:10
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
52.6%
Cam Guess punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Josh Downs at the NCaro 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
53.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:5955% → 53%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
55.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 5 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+13
55.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 13 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
57.0%
Elijah Green run for 1 yd to the NCaro 44Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+1
56.9%
Drake Maye run for 1 yd to the NCaro 45Similar
Q3 13:01
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
54.3%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Kamari MoralesSimilar
Q3 12:51
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
52.7%
Ben Kiernan punt for 38 yds, downed at the Pitt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16TD
5 plays · 83 yds · 2:3848% → 65%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
52.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Bub Means for 7 yds to the Pitt 24Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+2
51.9%
Israel Abanikanda run for 2 yds to the Pitt 26Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+2
52.4%
Israel Abanikanda run for 2 yds to the Pitt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+50
51.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jared Wayne for 50 yds to the NCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
34.8%
Israel Abanikanda run for 22 yds for a TD, (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:5936% → 58%
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.4%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
36.2%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:49
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+20
34.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 20 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
37.8%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+3
37.3%
Elijah Green run for 3 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+18
36.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to Gavin Blackwell for 18 yds to the Pitt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
39.8%
Drake Maye run for no gain to the Pitt 34Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+6
39.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to Elijah Green for 6 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 4
OPP 28
-1
37.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to John Copenhaver for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 29Similar
Q3 6:55
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+7
35.0%
Drake Maye run for 7 yds to the Pitt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
36.9%
Drake Maye run for 9 yds to the Pitt 13Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+13
57.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 13 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:5151% → 50%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
49.1%
Israel Abanikanda run for 5 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+21
47.3%
Israel Abanikanda run for 21 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
44.6%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Gavin BartholomewSimilar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+1
44.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for 1 yd to the NCaro 48Similar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 9
OPP 48
-10
44.9%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Kaimon Rucker and RaRa DillWorth for a loss of 10 yards to the Pitt 42Similar
Q3 3:04
4TH & 19
OWN 42
0
50.0%
Cam Guess punt for 42 yds, downed at the NCaro 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19TD
11 plays · 84 yds · 3:3852% → 78%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+24
51.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 24 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
54.8%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 35Similar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+14
51.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 14 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+11
55.7%
Drake Maye run for 11 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
56.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Elijah Green for 7 yds to the Pitt 33Similar
Q3 0:44
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+3
59.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 3 yds to the Pitt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+16
58.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 16 yds to the Pitt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
58.9%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to George PettawaySimilar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+12
58.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 12 yds to the Pitt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
58.8%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q4 14:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
78.0%
Elijah Green run for 2 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20FUMBLE
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:3228% → 32%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
71.9%
Israel Abanikanda run for 9 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
69.2%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
70.7%
Israel Abanikanda run for 7 yds to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
69.8%
Israel Abanikanda run for 2 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+7
70.0%
Israel Abanikanda run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:28
3RD & 1
50
-1
68.4%
Israel Abanikanda run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 49 Israel Abanikanda fumbled, recovered by NCaro Cedric GraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21TD
3 plays · 49 yds · 0:2977% → 92%
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
77.2%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 15 yds to the Pitt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
78.8%
Drake Maye run for 9 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+25
92.2%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 25 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2210% → 8%
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Gavin BartholomewSimilar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
91.2%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
Q4 10:31
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
91.6%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:20
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+23
92.0%
Cam Guess punt for 33 yds , Josh Downs returns for 23 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23TD
4 plays · 35 yds · 1:0593% → 98%
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
92.7%
Elijah Green run for no gain to the Pitt 35Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+22
92.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kamari Morales for 22 yds to the Pitt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
97.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 13 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-10
98.1%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Pitt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24DOWNS
10 plays · 19 yds · 3:373% → 2%
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.8%
Israel Abanikanda run for 2 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+13
96.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 13 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
96.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jared Wayne for 8 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 2
OWN 48
-5
96.7%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 43Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+4
96.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jared Wayne for 4 yds to the Pitt 47Similar
Q4 5:59
3RD & 3
OWN 47
-3
97.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 44Similar
Q4 5:25
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
98.2%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 25END OF GAME
9 plays · 29 yds · 4:5099% → 99%
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
98.6%
Drake Maye run for 4 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+4
98.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 4 yds to the Pitt 36Similar
Q4 3:42
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+4
98.9%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the Pitt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
99.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 6 yds to the Pitt 26Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 4
OPP 26
-2
99.1%
Omarion Hampton run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 28Similar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+15
99.2%
Drake Maye run for 15 yds to the Pitt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
99.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 14Similar
Q4 0:28
2ND & 11
OPP 14
-1
99.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:05
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 13 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)
+20.8
TD · Q4 14:07
Elijah Green run for 2 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)
+19.1
TD · Q3 10:07
Israel Abanikanda run for 22 yds for a TD, (Ben Sauls KICK)
-17.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com