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WAKE

Wake Forest 21 at Louisville 48

LOU
2022 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2022 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadWAKE aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreWAKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:48 · Ivan Mora punt for 51 yds , Braden Smith returns for 13 yds to the Lvile 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 84Home team on offense−2.8Score differential−2.1Blowout margin+0.3Garbage-time factor−0.2Pregame prior−3.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:15: Justice Ellison run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK) — WAKE win probability +9.5 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Scoring-chance index: 82%).
  2. TD · Q2 5:45: Sam Hartman pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 16 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK) — WAKE win probability +9.5 pts (now 56%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 14:13: Sam Hartman pass intercepted for a TD Kei'Trel Clark return for 46 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +15.0 pts (now 59%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:04: Tiyon Evans run for 52 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +18.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:09: Malik Cunningham run for 9 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +13.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8WAKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 11:08LOU 4th & 2 at WAKE 11, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.8%−0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    44.3%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:27WAKE 4th & 4 at WAKE 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:43LOU 4th & 3 at WAKE 22, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.2%−0.2
    72% to make
    Punt
    45.4%−2.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:03WAKE 4th & 18 at WAKE 24, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−1.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:21LOU 4th & 10 at LOU 25, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:54LOU 4th & 9 at WAKE 47, down 1
    Close callPunted · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:48WAKE 4th & 8 at WAKE 17, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−1.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:11LOU 4th & 23 at WAKE 29, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−2.6
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    40.8%−4.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:51LOU 4th & 1 at WAKE 20, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    62.3%−2.6
    75% to make
    Punt
    53.9%−10.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:32WAKE 4th & 15 at WAKE 38, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:41LOU 4th & 8 at LOU 20, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:00WAKE 4th & 3 at LOU 17, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    -1.2%−1.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:05WAKE 4th & 15 at LOU 29, down 34
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:53LOU 4th & 10 at WAKE 30, up 34
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    56% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:59WAKE 4th & 4 at LOU 33, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:16WAKE 4th & 6 at LOU 14, down 34
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6WAKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 14:27LOU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:15WAKE Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:45WAKE Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 14:13LOU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:04LOU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:09LOU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:12LOU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:00LOU Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:14WAKE Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1FG
12 plays · 64 yds · 3:4744% → 45%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
43.7%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
43.9%
Malik Cunningham run for no gain to the Lvile 25Similar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+19
43.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 19 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
44.2%
Trevion Cooley run for 3 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+6
44.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 6 yds to the WFrst 47Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+9
44.5%
Malik Cunningham run for 9 yds to the WFrst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+19
44.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 19 yds to the WFrst 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
45.1%
Trevion Cooley run for 2 yds to the WFrst 17Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+6
45.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 6 yds to the WFrst 11Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 2
OPP 11
0
45.2%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tyler HudsonSimilar
Q1 11:08
4TH & 2
OPP 11
+29
45.4%
James Turner 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:4155% → 54%
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
45.2%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the WFrst 20Similar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
45.3%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to TEAMSimilar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
45.4%
Sam Hartman run for no gain to the WFrst 20Similar
Q1 10:22
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+5
45.8%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the WFrst 25Similar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+6
45.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 6 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
Q1 9:27
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+8
46.3%
Ivan Mora punt for 52 yds , Braden Smith returns for 8 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3FG
9 plays · 53 yds · 3:2746% → 49%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
46.0%
Jawhar Jordan run for 5 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+21
46.0%
Malik Cunningham run for 21 yds to the WFrst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
47.0%
Jawhar Jordan run for 5 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 5
OPP 44
0
47.2%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Ahmari Huggins-BruceSimilar
Q1 7:17
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+15
47.2%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 15 yds to the WFrst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
47.6%
Jawhar Jordan run for 2 yds to the WFrst 27Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+4
47.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tiyon Evans for 4 yds to the WFrst 23Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+1
47.6%
Malik Cunningham run for 1 yd to the WFrst 22Similar
Q1 5:43
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+39
49.4%
James Turner 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:1451% → 49%
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
49.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 11 yds to the WFrst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
49.0%
Christian Turner run for 1 yd to the WFrst 33Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
49.4%
Christian Turner run for no gain to the WFrst 33Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 9
OWN 33
-9
50.2%
Sam Hartman sacked by Josh Minkins for a loss of 9 yards to the WFrst 24Similar
Q1 3:03
4TH & 18
OWN 24
0
51.1%
Ivan Mora punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the Lvile 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 3:1151% → 63%
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
50.9%
Jalen Mitchell run for 9 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+3
51.6%
Malik Cunningham run for 3 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
51.8%
Tiyon Evans run for 5 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q1 1:26
2ND & 5
OWN 41
-5
52.6%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Renato Brown) to the Lvile 36Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+13
52.0%
Tiyon Evans run for 13 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
53.4%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jaelin Carter for 9 yds to the WFrst 42Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+2
53.7%
Tiyon Evans run for 2 yds to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+39
54.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 39 yds to the WFrst 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.8%
Malik Cunningham run for 1 yd for a TD, (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:0641% → 50%
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
58.7%
Hartman, Sam pass incomplete to Perry, A.T., PENALTY LOUISVILLE pass interference (Clark, Kei'Trel) 15 yards to the WAKEFOREST40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WAKEFOREST.Similar
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+25
58.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Blake Whiteheart for 25 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
57.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Blake Whiteheart for 9 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+2
57.6%
Justice Ellison run for 2 yds to the Lvile 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
57.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 9 yds to the Lvile 15Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 1
OPP 15
0
58.2%
Justice Ellison run for no gain to the Lvile 15Similar
Q2 12:26
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+2
59.5%
Sam Hartman run for 2 yds to the Lvile 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
59.2%
Justice Ellison run for no gain to the Lvile 13Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+10
59.5%
Sam Hartman run for 10 yds to the Lvile 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
50.0%
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3555% → 54%
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
55.2%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 6 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-2
56.1%
Trevion Cooley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 29Similar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-4
55.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Trevion Cooley for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 25Similar
Q2 9:21
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
54.4%
Mark Vassett punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 3:2846% → 56%
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-6
53.7%
Sam Hartman sacked by YaYa Diaby for a loss of 6 yards to the WFrst 21Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 16
OWN 21
+20
55.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 20 yds to the WFrst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+21
53.6%
Christian Turner run for 21 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
53.1%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Kei'Trel Clark) to the Lvile 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
52.0%
Christian Turner run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 25Similar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 12
OPP 25
+2
52.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Christian Turner for 2 yds to the Lvile 23Similar
Q2 6:53
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+11
53.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Blake Whiteheart for 11 yds to the Lvile 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-4
52.6%
Christian Turner run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 16Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 14
OPP 16
0
53.9%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jahmal BanksSimilar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 14
OPP 16
+16
44.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 16 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:2647% → 47%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
47.4%
Tiyon Evans run for 5 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+7
48.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 7 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
49.5%
Tiyon Evans run for 5 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+7
50.0%
Tiyon Evans run for 7 yds to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
50.6%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Ahmari Huggins-BruceSimilar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+1
50.4%
Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd to the WFrst 47Similar
Q2 3:01
3RD & 9
OPP 47
0
49.6%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tyler HudsonSimilar
Q2 2:54
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
46.7%
Mark Vassett punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WFrst 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:4855% → 53%
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
45.5%
Quinton Cooley run for 2 yds to the WFrst 17Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 3
OWN 22
-5
46.3%
Sam Hartman sacked by Kei'Trel Clark for a loss of 5 yards to the WFrst 17Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+5
45.3%
Quinton Cooley run for 5 yds to the WFrst 22Similar
Q2 1:48
4TH & 8
OWN 17
+13
47.4%
Ivan Mora punt for 51 yds , Braden Smith returns for 13 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11MISSED FG
10 plays · 26 yds · 0:3049% → 46%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+23
49.4%
Jawhar Jordan run for 23 yds to the WFrst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+16
51.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 16 yds to the WFrst 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
51.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for no gain to the WFrst 16Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+2
52.1%
Malik Cunningham run for 2 yds to the WFrst 14Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 8
OPP 14
0
50.7%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Jawhar JordanSimilar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 8
OPP 14
-5
48.9%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 19Similar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 13
OPP 19
-10
46.8%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dez Melton) to the WFrst 29Similar
Q2 1:11
4TH & 23
OPP 29
+47
46.1%
James Turner 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 12END OF HALF
7 plays · 56 yds · 1:0554% → 60%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
45.6%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+7
46.1%
Justice Ellison run for 7 yds to the WFrst 36Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+6
45.0%
Justice Ellison run for 6 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
44.1%
Sam Hartman run for 4 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+39
43.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 39 yds to the Lvile 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
40.5%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. Perry WAKE FOREST Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (TEAM) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13INT TD
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:4454% → 41%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
45.6%
Hartman, Sam pass incomplete to Perry, A.T., PENALTY WAKEFOREST ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the WAKEFOREST20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:50
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+18
45.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 18 yds to the WFrst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
44.0%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-46
59.0%
Sam Hartman pass intercepted for a TD Kei'Trel Clark return for 46 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 14FUMBLE
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:2740% → 39%
Q3 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
60.3%
Christian Turner run for 12 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
59.3%
Christian Turner run for 3 yds to the WFrst 40Similar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+11
58.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 11 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
57.2%
Sam Hartman sacked by Momo Sanogo for a loss of 10 yards to the WFrst 41Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 20
OWN 41
-12
60.8%
Sam Hartman sacked by Yasir Abdullah for a loss of 12 yards to the WFrst 29 Sam Hartman fumbled, forced by Yasir Abdullah, recovered by Lvile Mason Reiger , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3267% → 65%
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
66.8%
Jawhar Jordan run for 5 yds to the WFrst 24Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+2
67.2%
Jawhar Jordan run for 2 yds to the WFrst 22Similar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+2
66.6%
Jawhar Jordan run for 2 yds to the WFrst 20Similar
Q3 10:51
4TH & 1
OPP 20
0
65.3%
Jawhar Jordan run for no gain to the WFrst 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16FUMBLE
7 plays · 54 yds · 2:1738% → 43%
Q3 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+22
62.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 22 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
60.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 7 yds to the WFrst 49Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+3
58.6%
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
58.8%
Justice Ellison run for 1 yd to the Lvile 47Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+7
59.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Blake Whiteheart for 7 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+16
59.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 16 yds to the Lvile 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
57.2%
Sam Hartman sacked by Jared Dawson for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 26 Sam Hartman fumbled, forced by Jared Dawson, recovered by Lvile Momo Sanogo , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 2:0066% → 85%
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
66.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 11 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-8
67.4%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Kevin Pointer for a loss of 8 yards to the Lvile 29Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 18
OWN 29
+8
66.1%
Tiyon Evans run for 8 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+11
66.4%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 11 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
84.7%
Tiyon Evans run for 52 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 18INT
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:2118% → 18%
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
82.0%
Christian Turner run for 5 yds to the WFrst 22Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+2
81.6%
Christian Turner run for 2 yds to the WFrst 24Similar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+20
82.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 5 yds to the WFrst 29 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Kei'Trel Clark) to the WFrst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
81.3%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jahmal BanksSimilar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-9
81.6%
Sam Hartman pass intercepted Monty Montgomery return for 9 yds to the WFrst 9 Josh Minkins return for 38 yds to the WFrst 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19TD
1 play · 9 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 4:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
95.2%
Malik Cunningham run for 9 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20FUMBLE
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:055% → 5%
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
94.7%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Taylor MorinSimilar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-3
94.8%
Sam Hartman sacked by Caleb Banks for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 33 Sam Hartman fumbled, forced by Caleb Banks, recovered by Lvile K.J. Cloyd , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21TD
2 plays · 33 yds · 0:1496% → 100%
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
95.5%
Ahmari Huggins-Bruce run for 5 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+28
99.5%
Braden Smith pass complete to Jaelin Carter for 28 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:201% → 0%
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
99.5%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Taylor MorinSimilar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
99.5%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jahmal BanksSimilar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 10
OWN 43
-5
99.5%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start (Je'Vionte' Nash) to the WFrst 38Similar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 15
OWN 38
0
99.6%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jahmal BanksSimilar
Q3 2:32
4TH & 15
OWN 38
0
99.6%
Ivan Mora punt for 44 yds, fair catch at the Lvile 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:36100% → 100%
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
99.5%
Tiyon Evans run for 2 yds to the Lvile 20Similar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 8
OWN 20
0
99.5%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Braden SmithSimilar
Q3 1:51
3RD & 8
OWN 20
0
99.5%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Chris BellSimilar
Q3 1:41
4TH & 8
OWN 20
0
99.5%
Mark Vassett punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 24INT TD
8 plays · 44 yds · 1:350% → 0%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
99.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 2 yds to the WFrst 41Similar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+6
99.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 6 yds to the WFrst 47Similar
Q3 0:54
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+29
99.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 29 yds to the Lvile 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
99.7%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q3 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
99.7%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Ke'Shawn WilliamsSimilar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+7
99.7%
Sam Hartman run for 7 yds to the Lvile 17Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 17
-90
99.5%
Sam Hartman pass intercepted for a TD Quincy Riley return for 90 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
99.6%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Lvile 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 25FUMBLE
11 plays · 22 yds · 4:280% → 0%
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
99.7%
Will Towns run for 3 yds to the WFrst 32Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+18
99.7%
Will Towns run for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
50
+8
99.7%
Mitch Griffis run for 8 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+3
99.7%
Will Towns run for 3 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
99.8%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 6 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+9
99.7%
Will Towns run for 9 yds to the Lvile 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
99.8%
Demond Claiborne run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 25Similar
Q4 11:06
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+3
99.8%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Cameron Hite for 3 yds to the Lvile 22Similar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 8
OPP 22
-7
99.8%
Mitch Griffis sacked by Dorian Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the Lvile 29Similar
Q4 10:05
4TH & 15
OPP 29
-20
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 20 yards to the Lvile 49 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Lvile Ashton GillotteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 26DOWNS
8 plays · 20 yds · 4:07100% → 100%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
99.8%
Tiyon Evans run for 2 yds to the WFrst 49Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+9
99.9%
Brock Domann pass complete to Chris Bell for 9 yds to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
99.9%
Jalen Mitchell run for 5 yds to the WFrst 35Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+5
99.9%
Tiyon Evans run for 5 yds to the WFrst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
99.9%
Jalen Mitchell run for 2 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 8
OPP 28
-2
99.9%
Brock Domann pass complete to Chris Bell for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 30Similar
Q4 5:57
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
99.9%
Brock Domann pass incomplete to Chris BellSimilar
Q4 5:53
4TH & 10
OPP 30
-1
99.9%
Brock Domann run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 27INT
11 plays · 55 yds · 4:200% → 0%
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
99.9%
Will Towns run for 12 yds to the WFrst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
99.9%
Mitch Griffis run for 9 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q4 4:49
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+9
99.9%
Will Towns run for 9 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
99.9%
Mitch Griffis pass incomplete to Trent NicholsonSimilar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
99.9%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Trent Nicholson for 4 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q4 3:19
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+2
99.9%
Mitch Griffis run for 2 yds to the Lvile 33 Mitch Griffis fumbled, forced by Kameron Wilson, recovered by WFrst Will TownsSimilar
Q4 2:59
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+15
99.9%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Jackson Hensley for 15 yds to the Lvile 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
99.9%
Demond Claiborne run for 3 yds to the Lvile 15Similar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+1
99.9%
Mitch Griffis run for 1 yd to the Lvile 14Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 6
OPP 14
0
99.9%
Mitch Griffis pass incomplete to Wesley GrimesSimilar
Q4 1:16
4TH & 6
OPP 14
-11
99.9%
Mitch Griffis pass intercepted Quincy Riley return for 11 yds to the Lvile 11 Quincy Riley fumbled, forced by Demond Claiborne, recovered by WFrst Demond ClaiborneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 28TD
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:490% → 0%
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
99.9%
Will Towns run for no gain to the Lvile 11Similar
Q4 0:28
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+6
99.9%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Trent Nicholson for 6 yds to the Lvile 5Similar
Q4 0:14
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+5
100.0%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Trey Boll for 5 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 29END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:04
Tiyon Evans run for 52 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)
+18.3
TD · Q3 14:13
Sam Hartman pass intercepted for a TD Kei'Trel Clark return for 46 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)
+15
TD · Q3 4:09
Malik Cunningham run for 9 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)
+13.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com